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← Back to GamesNov 27, 2021Week 13

House Prediction

Model Margin

New Mexico State by 41

Home Win Probability

New Mexico State 99%

Market (consensus)

New Mexico State -7

Edge: New Mexico State -7 (34.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 27, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
MassachusettsMassachusetts
01314027
New Mexico StateNew Mexico State
72071044

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-014-014-621-1334-2037-2744-27
New Mexico StateMassachusetts

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NMSMASNMSMASNMSMASNMSMASNMSMASNMSMASNMSMASNMSMASNMSMASNMSMASNMSTD675ydPUNT3-12ydPUNT3-11ydPUNT719ydTD1092ydTD575ydTD983ydTD1075ydTD375ydPUNT30ydEND521ydTD375ydTD890ydPUNT37ydPUNT739ydTD595ydFG1143ydPUNT3-4ydTD781ydDOWNS1665ydEND315yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Massachusetts and New Mexico State
StatisticMassachusettsNew Mexico State
Passing12-2326-34
Pass Yards124420
Rush Yards281203
Total Yards405623
Turnovers00
3rd Down4-137-13
Penalties7-6510-80
Possession27:3032:30

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Massachusetts
passing
Garrett Dzuro
12/23, 124 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Ellis Merriweather
23 CAR, 168 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Rico Arnold
2 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD
defense
New Mexico State
passing
Jonah Johnson
26/32, 420 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Juwuan Price
24 CAR, 156 YDS, 4 TD
receiving
Jared Wyatt
6 REC, 126 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Johnson,Jonah rush for 5 yards gain to the NMS30, End Of Play PENALTY NMS Holding (Townsend,Stephawn) 10 yards from NMS25 to NMS15. NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.42

Juwaun Price run for 16 yds to the NMxSt 31

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Juwaun Price run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 32

3rd & 3Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.46

Jonah Johnson pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 16 yds to the NMxSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+40 ydsPPA +1.48

Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 40 yds to the UMass 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Juwaun Price run for 7 yds to the UMass 5

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.23

Juwaun Price run for 5 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Ellis Merriweather run for 5 yds to the UMass 20

2nd & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.13

Ellis Merriweather run for 1 yd to the UMass 21

3rd & 14Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.12

Garrett Dzuro sacked by Trevor Brohard for a loss of 8 yards to the UMass 13

4th & 22Punt+13 yds

George Georgopoulos punt for 47 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for 13 yds to the UMass 47

1st & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -1.05

Jonah Johnson sacked by Uchenna Ezewike for 0 yards to the UMass 47

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Jonah Johnson run for 3 yds to the UMass 44

3rd & 7Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY NMS Delay Of Game (Johnson,Jonah) 5 yards from MAS44 to MAS49. NO PLAY.

3rd & 12Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.16

Jonah Johnson sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the NMxSt 42

4th & 21Punt0 yds

Josh Carlson punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Eric Collins at the UMass 25

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Ellis Merriweather run for 1 yd to the UMass 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Ellis Merriweather for 4 yds to the UMass 30

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Ellis Merriweather run for 4 yds to the UMass 34

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.75

Ellis Merriweather run for 3 yds to the UMass 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Ellis Merriweather for 5 yds to the UMass 42

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Ellis Merriweather run for 2 yds to the UMass 44

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete to Rico Arnold

4th & 3Punt+1 yds

George Georgopoulos punt for 49 yds , Lawrence Dixon returns for 1 yd to the NMxSt 8

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Jonah Johnson pass complete to PJ Johnson III for 3 yds to the NMxSt 5

2nd & 13Pass Reception+47 ydsPPA +3.59

Jonah Johnson pass complete to Andre Bodison for 47 yds to the UMass 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.71

Juwaun Price run for 13 yds to the UMass 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.53

Juwaun Price run for 1 yd to the UMass 34

2nd & 9Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 2 yds to the UMass 32

3rd & 7Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY NMS False Start (Johnson,Eli) 5 yards from MAS32 to MAS37. NO PLAY.

3rd & 12Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.43

Jonah Johnson pass complete to Andre Bodison for 20 yds to the UMass 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Alex Escobar run for 5 yds to the UMass 12

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Juwaun Price run for 3 yds to the UMass 9

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.38

Jonah Johnson run for no gain to the UMass 9

4th & 2Rushing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +3.00

Juwaun Price run for 9 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Ellis Merriweather run for 8 yds to the UMass 33

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Ellis Merriweather run for 6 yds to the UMass 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+34 ydsPPA +2.11

Garrett Dzuro run for 34 yds to the NMxSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Carter Scudo for 3 yds to the NMxSt 30

2nd & 13Rushing Touchdown+30 ydsPPA +3.63

Jared Chisari run for 30 yds for a TD, (Cameron Carson PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY MAS Offside (Powell,Te'Rai) 5 yards from MAS35 to MAS30. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+9 yds

CJ Kolodziey kickoff for 62 yds , Terrell Warner return for 9 yds to the NMxSt 17

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Johnson,Jonah pass incomplete to Powers,Justice PENALTY MAS Pass Interference (Wallace,Josh) 15 yards from NMS17 to NMS32, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.05

Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 11 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Alex Escobar run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 49

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.24

Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to PJ Johnson III

3rd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.02

Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 9 yds to the UMass 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Justice Powers

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Juwaun Price

3rd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Juwaun Price run for 6 yds to the UMass 36

4th & 4Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.35

Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 16 yds to the UMass 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +2.62

Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 20 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

PENALTY NMS Offside (Bishop,Garrett) 5 yards from MAS25 to MAS30. NO PLAY.

1st & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Rico Arnold for 4 yds to the UMass 34

2nd & 1Rush+24 ydsPPA +1.53

Ellis Merriweather run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 43 for a 1ST down NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Caleb Mills) to the NMxSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Garrett Dzuro run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 36

2nd & 4Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY MAS False Start (Hill,Melvin) 5 yards from NMS36 to NMS41. NO PLAY.

2nd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Josiah Johnson run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 35

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.80

Josiah Johnson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 34

4th & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.70

Ellis Merriweather run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete to Isaac Ross

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.75

Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Ellis Merriweather for 10 yds to the NMxSt 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete to Josiah Johnson

2nd & 10Rushing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +2.99

Ellis Merriweather run for 20 yds for a TD, (Cameron Carson KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +2.84

Jonah Johnson pass complete to Justice Powers for 34 yds to the UMass 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.56

Jonah Johnson pass complete to Andre Bodison for 17 yds to the UMass 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+24 ydsPPA +2.68

Juwaun Price run for 24 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson PAT BLOCKED)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY MAS False Start (Fagundes,Helber) 5 yards from MAS25 to MAS20. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Ellis Merriweather run for 3 yds to the UMass 17

2nd & 18Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.13

Ellis Merriweather run for 8 yds to the UMass 25

3rd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.16

Ellis Merriweather run for no gain to the UMass 25

4th & 10Punt0 yds

George Georgopoulos punt for 52 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Juwaun Price run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 27

2nd & 6Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.26

Jonah Johnson run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Jonah Johnson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Jared Wyatt

3rd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.28

Juwaun Price run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 44

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Garrett Dzuro run for 4 yds to the UMass 29

2nd & 6Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY MAS False Start (Mottinger,Ethan) 5 yards from MAS29 to MAS24. NO PLAY.

2nd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Ellis Merriweather run for 3 yds to the UMass 27

3rd & 8Passing Touchdown+73 ydsPPA +7.01

Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Rico Arnold for 73 yds for a TD, (Cameron Carson KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+17 yds

CJ Kolodziey kickoff for 62 yds , Juwaun Price return for 17 yds to the NEWMEXST 48 NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the NMxSt 10

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.83

Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 9 yds to the NMxSt 19

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.24

Alex Escobar run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.57

Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 7 yds to the NMxSt 30

2nd & 3Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +2.40

Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 29 yds to the UMass 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Price,Juwaun rush for 2 yards gain to the MAS39 (Mathurin,Cletus) PENALTY NMS Holding (Doxtater,Sage) 10 yards from MAS41 to NMS49. NO PLAY.

1st & 20Penalty-10 yds

Johnson,Jonah pass incomplete to Dixon,Lawrence PENALTY NMS Holding (Doxtater,Sage) 10 yards from NMS49 to NMS39. NO PLAY.

1st & 30Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.85

Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 16 yds to the UMass 45

2nd & 14Rush+19 ydsPPA +2.27

Jonah Johnson run for 19 yds to the UMass 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Jared Wyatt

2nd & 10Rushing Touchdown+26 ydsPPA +3.19

Juwaun Price run for 26 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete to Eric Collins

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Eric Collins for 5 yds to the UMass 30

3rd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Ellis Merriweather run for 2 yds to the UMass 32

4th & 3Punt0 yds

George Georgopoulos punt for 54 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Juwaun Price run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 18

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Juwaun Price run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 16

3rd & 8Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.43

Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 13 yds to the NMxSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.93

Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Alex Escobar run for 3 yds to the UMass 47

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Jonah Johnson run for 6 yds to the UMass 41

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.69

Juwaun Price run for 1 yd to the UMass 42

4th & 2Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY NMS False Start (Price,Juwaun) 5 yards from MAS42 to MAS47. NO PLAY.

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Josh Carlson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Eric Collins at the UMass 5

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Ellis Merriweather run for 6 yds to the UMass 11

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Ellis Merriweather run for 6 yds to the UMass 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Ellis Merriweather run for 4 yds to the UMass 21

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete to Isaac Ross

3rd & 6Rushing Touchdown+79 ydsPPA +7.06

Ellis Merriweather run for 79 yds for a TD, (Cameron Carson KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Juwaun Price run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 34

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Juwaun Price run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Jonah Johnson pass incomplete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda

2nd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.35

Jonah Johnson pass complete to Justice Powers for 14 yds to the UMass 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Jonah Johnson pass complete to Terrell Warner for 5 yds to the UMass 43

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

Juwaun Price run for 1 yd to the UMass 44

3rd & 6Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.11

Jonah Johnson pass complete to Juwaun Price for 14 yds to the UMass 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda pass incomplete to Terrell Warner

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 4 yds to the UMass 26

3rd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.62

Alex Escobar run for 1 yd to the UMass 27

4th & 7Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY NMS False Start (Mursalat,Isaiah) 5 yards from MAS27 to MAS32. NO PLAY.

4th & 12Field Goal Good+50 yds

Ethan Albertson 50 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Jared Chisari for 7 yds to the UMass 18

2nd & 17Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.05

Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Ellis Merriweather for 3 yds to the UMass 21

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.08

Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete to Onuma Dieke

4th & 14Punt0 yds

George Georgopoulos punt for 60 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Jonah Johnson run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 20

2nd & 9Pass Reception+46 ydsPPA +3.95

Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 31 yds to the NEWMEXST 49 for a 1ST down MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Te'Rai Powell) to the UMass 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Juwaun Price run for 6 yds to the UMass 28

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.67

Juwaun Price run for no gain to the UMass 28

3rd & 4Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.85

Jonah Johnson pass complete to Jared Wyatt for 16 yds to the UMass 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Jonah Johnson pass complete to Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda for 7 yds to the UMass 5

2nd & 3Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.23

Jonah Johnson pass complete to Thomaz Whitford for 5 yds for a TD, (Ethan Albertson KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Garrett Dzuro run for 1 yd to the UMass 24

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete to Isaac Ross

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete to Josiah Johnson

4th & 11Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.26

Garrett Dzuro run for 13 yds to the UMass 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete to Josiah Johnson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.74

Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Josiah Johnson for 8 yds to the UMass 45

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.37

Ellis Merriweather run for 3 yds to the UMass 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

MASSACHUSETTS Penalty, UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Avien Peah) to the UMass 33

2nd & 25Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.26

Garrett Dzuro run for 9 yds to the UMass 42

3rd & 16Rush+21 ydsPPA +3.84

Garrett Dzuro run for 21 yds to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Garrett Dzuro pass incomplete to Rico Arnold

2nd & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.20

Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Jaret Pallotta for 18 yds to the NMxSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Garrett Dzuro run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 21

2nd & 12Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.21

Ellis Merriweather run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 14

3rd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Garrett Dzuro pass complete to Jaret Pallotta for 4 yds to the NMxSt 10

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -4.03

Ellis Merriweather run for no gain to the NMxSt 10

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Juwaun Price run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 14

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Juwaun Price run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 19

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.70

Juwaun Price run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 25 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Massachusetts

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
39%
18 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
100%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
86%
7 plays
50%
8 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
67%
3 plays
100%
1 play

New Mexico State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
57%
30 plays
100%
2 plays
2nd
60%
5 plays
25%
8 plays
44%
9 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
75%
4 plays
100%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play
100%
1 play