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← Back to GamesNov 27, 2021Week 13
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

NC State by 16.5

Home Win Probability

NC State 83%

Market (consensus)

NC State -6.5

Edge: NC State -6.5 (10.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 27, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
North CarolinaNorth Carolina
01014630
NC StateNC State
14071334

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-014-014-314-1014-1721-2421-2721-3034-30
NC StateNorth Carolina

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NCNCNSNCNSNCNSNCNSNCNSNCNSNCNSNCNSNCNSNCNSNCNSNSNCTD3-5ydPUNT426ydPUNT728ydPUNT39ydTD764ydFG770ydPUNT635ydPUNT627ydPUNT37ydTD664ydMISS744ydEND1-2ydTO813ydTD523ydPUNT3-5ydTD659ydTD973ydPUNT623ydPUNT35ydFG1067ydPUNT3-4ydFG743ydTD256ydTD354ydTO645yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing North Carolina and NC State
StatisticNorth CarolinaNC State
Passing14-2719-31
Pass Yards147247
Rush Yards297113
Total Yards444360
Turnovers11
3rd Down4-142-10
Penalties7-658-56
Possession29:2130:39

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

North Carolina
passing
Sam Howell
14/26, 147 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
British Brooks
15 CAR, 124 YDS
receiving
Josh Downs
8 REC, 75 YDS
defense
NC State
passing
Devin Leary
19/30, 247 YDS, 4 TD
rushing
Zonovan Knight
9 CAR, 69 YDS
receiving
Emeka Emezie
5 REC, 112 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Ty Chandler run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 24

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh Downs

3rd & 11Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.19

Sam Howell sacked by Daniel Joseph and Tanner Ingle for a loss of 4 yards to the NCaro 20

4th & 15Blocked Punt Touchdown0 ydsPPA -6.64

C.J. Riley 0 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Christopher Dunn Kick)

1st & 10Rush+23 ydsPPA +2.07

Ty Chandler run for 23 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh Downs

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 3 yds to the NCSt 49

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Sam Howell pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt+42 yds

Ben Kiernan punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 13 NC STATE Penalty, Offensive Holding (6 Yards) to the NCSt 7

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Zonovan Knight run for 6 yds to the NCSt 13

2nd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.41

Devin Leary pass complete to Trent Pennix for 9 yds to the NCSt 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.56

Zonovan Knight run for 7 yds to the NCSt 29

2nd & 3Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.86

Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 10 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Thayer Thomas pass incomplete to Trent Pennix

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 3 yds to the NCSt 42

3rd & 7Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.75

Devin Leary sacked by Tomon Fox for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 40

4th & 9Penalty-5 yds

NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Devon Betty) to the NCSt 35

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Trenton Gill punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the NCaro 11

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Ty Chandler run for 2 yds to the NCaro 13

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.25

Sam Howell pass complete to Ty Chandler for 7 yds to the NCaro 20

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.38

Ty Chandler run for no gain to the NCaro 20

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Ben Kiernan punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 36

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.14

Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 12 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Porter Rooks

2nd & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +2.18

Ricky Person Jr. run for 17 yds to the NCaro 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.56

Devin Leary run for 8 yds to the NCaro 27

2nd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA -0.21

Ricky Person Jr. run for 7 yds to the NCaro 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.93

Ricky Person Jr. run for 16 yds to the NCaro 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 0Penalty-5 yds

NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Grant Gibson) to the NCaro 9

1st & 9Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Trent Pennix 9 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Christopher Dunn Kick)

1st & 10Rush+40 ydsPPA +3.11

British Brooks run for 40 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.29

Sam Howell pass complete to Justin Olson for 11 yds to the NCSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.16

Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 13 yds to the NCSt 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

British Brooks run for 6 yds to the NCSt 5

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Sam Howell run for 2 yds to the NCSt 3

3rd & 2Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.45

Sam Howell sacked by Vi Jones and Davin Vann for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 5

4th & 4Field Goal Good+22 yds

Grayson Atkins 22 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the NCSt 27

2nd & 8Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.48

Zonovan Knight run for 10 yds to the NCSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +1.81

Zonovan Knight run for 22 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer Thomas

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the NCaro 40

3rd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -1.00

Devin Leary run for no gain to the NCaro 40

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Trenton Gill punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Josh Downs at the NCaro 9

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Ty Chandler run for no gain to the NCaro 9

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Antoine Green) to the NCaro 4

2nd & 15Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.13

Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 9 yds to the NCaro 13

3rd & 6Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.09

Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 2 yds to the NCaro 15

4th & 4Blocked Punt+15 yds

Ben Kiernan punt blocked by Vi Jones for a 1ST down blocked by Vi Jones for a 1ST down for a 1ST down Garrett Walston run for 15 yds to the NCaro 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.49

Sam Howell sacked by Jaylon Scott for a loss of 8 yards to the NCaro 22

2nd & 18Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Sam Howell run for 5 yds to the NCaro 27

3rd & 13Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.06

Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 6 yds to the NCaro 33

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Ben Kiernan punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 35

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Ricky Person Jr. run for 6 yds to the NCSt 41

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.95

Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the NCSt 42

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka Emezie

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Trenton Gill punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 36

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Howell, Sam pass incomplete to Green, Antoine, PENALTY NCSTATE pass interference (Pitts Jr., Derrek) 15 yards to the NCSTATE49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine Green

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

British Brooks run for 3 yds to the NCSt 46

3rd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 6 yds to the NCSt 40

4th & 1Rush+16 ydsPPA +2.27

British Brooks run for 16 yds to the NCSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +0.99

Sam Howell pass complete to Kamari Morales for 20 yds to the NCSt 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Sam Howell 4 Yd Run (Grayson Atkins Kick)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+23 yds

Jonathan Kim kickoff for 65 yds , Zonovan Knight return for 23 yds to the NCSt 23

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.20

Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 9 yds to the NCSt 32

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Zonovan Knight run for 4 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Grant Gibson) to the NCSt 31

1st & 15Pass Reception+38 ydsPPA +3.40

Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 38 yds to the NCaro 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -2.26

Devin Leary sacked by Cedric Gray and Tomon Fox for a loss of 9 yards to the NCaro 40

2nd & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.95

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka Emezie

3rd & 19Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 7 yds to the NCaro 33

4th & 12Field Goal Missed+50 yds

Christopher Dunn 50 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.23

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 31

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+20 yds

Jonathan Kim kickoff for 60 yds , Zonovan Knight return for 20 yds to the NCSt 25

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the NCSt 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.84

Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 6 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the NCSt 36

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Devin Leary pass complete to Dylan Parham for 3 yds to the NCSt 39

3rd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +2.36

Devin Leary pass complete to Trent Pennix for 8 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -2.68

Devin Leary sacked by Jeremiah Gemmel and Chris Collins for a loss of 9 yards to the NCSt 38

2nd & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Trent Pennix

3rd & 19Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+15 ydsPPA +0.12

Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for no gain Ricky Person Jr. fumbled, forced by Jeremiah Gemmel, recovered by NCaro Cedric Gray , return for 15 yds to the NCSt 23

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.64

British Brooks run for 9 yds to the NCSt 14

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.50

British Brooks run for 2 yds to the NCSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.30

Sam Howell run for no gain to the NCSt 12

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh Downs

3rd & 10Rushing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +3.14

Sam Howell 12 Yd Run (Grayson Atkins Kick)

3rd & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+25 yds

Jonathan Kim kickoff for 63 yds , Zonovan Knight return for 25 yds to the NCSt 27

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Porter Rooks

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Ricky Person Jr.

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.18

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin Carter

4th & 10Penalty-5 yds

NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Devon Betty) to the NCSt 22

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Trenton Gill punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCaro 41

1st & 10Rush+24 ydsPPA +1.69

Sam Howell run for 24 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.53

British Brooks run for 1 yd to the NCSt 34

2nd & 9Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.83

Sam Howell pass complete to Antoine Green for 11 yds to the NCSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

British Brooks run for 11 yds to the NCSt 12 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the NCSt 22

1st & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Sam Howell run for 5 yds to the NCSt 17

2nd & 4Passing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +2.47

Justin Olson 17 Yd pass from Sam Howell (Grayson Atkins Kick)

2nd & 4Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Jonathan Kim kickoff for 60 yds , Jordan Houston return for 22 yds to the NCSt 27

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.08

Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 12 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the NCSt 44

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.90

Zonovan Knight run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Zonovan Knight run for 7 yds to the NCaro 43

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.16

Zonovan Knight run for 5 yds to the NCaro 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.35

Thayer Thomas run for 11 yds to the NCaro 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.21

Devin Leary sacked by Chris Collins for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 32

2nd & 15Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 6 yds to the NCaro 26

3rd & 9Passing Touchdown+26 ydsPPA +3.74

Thayer Thomas 26 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Christopher Dunn Kick)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

British Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 24

2nd & 11Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Sam Howell run for 5 yds to the NCaro 29

3rd & 6Rush+21 ydsPPA +3.00

British Brooks run for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-6 ydsPPA -2.36

Sam Howell sacked by Daniel Joseph for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 44 Sam Howell fumbled, forced by Daniel Joseph, recovered by NCaro Sam Howell , return for 0 yards

2nd & 16Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.42

British Brooks run for 7 yds to the NCSt 49

3rd & 9Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.09

Sam Howell sacked by Vi Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 48

4th & 12Punt+20 yds

Ben Kiernan punt for 32 yds , Thayer Thomas returns for 20 yds to the NCSt 40

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.12

Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the NCSt 40

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the NCSt 45

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka Emezie

4th & 5Blocked Punt+26 yds

Trenton Gill punt blocked by Alex Nobles blocked by Alex Nobles

1st & 10Rush+35 ydsPPA +2.76

Ty Chandler run for 35 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Justin Olson

2nd & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.16

Sam Howell run for 20 yds to the NCSt 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

British Brooks run for 5 yds to the NCSt 11

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine Green

3rd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.17

Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 7 yds to the NCSt 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine Green

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine Green

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Josh Downs

4th & 4Field Goal Good+21 yds

Grayson Atkins 21 Yd Field Goal

4th & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+13 yds

Jonathan Kim kickoff for 50 yds , Jordan Houston return for 13 yds to the NCSt 28

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.23

Devin Leary sacked by Tomon Fox for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 23

2nd & 15Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.08

Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 3 yds to the NCSt 26

3rd & 12Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.17

Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 24

4th & 14Punt+51 yds

Trenton Gill punt for 41 yds , Josh Downs returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 23 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the NCaro 24

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.43

British Brooks run for 2 yds to the NCaro 26

2nd & 8Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.43

Sam Howell run for 10 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+24 ydsPPA +1.96

Sam Howell run for 24 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

British Brooks run for 2 yds to the NCSt 38

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Sam Howell run for 5 yds to the NCSt 33

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.98

British Brooks run for no gain to the NCSt 33

4th & 3Field Goal Good+50 yds

Grayson Atkins 50 Yd Field Goal

4th & 3Kickoff Return (Offense)+37 yds

Jonathan Kim kickoff for 58 yds , Jordan Houston return for 37 yds to the NCSt 44

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.43

Devin Leary sacked by Raymond Vohasek for a loss of 8 yards to the NCSt 36

2nd & 18Passing Touchdown+64 ydsPPA +6.80

Emeka Emezie 64 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Christopher Dunn Kick)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

NC STATE Penalty, False Start (Emeka Emezie) to the NCSt 41

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka Emezie

2nd & 15Penalty+5 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Tomon Fox) to the NCSt 46

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

Leary, Devin pass incomplete to Carter, Devin, PENALTY UNC roughing passer (Vohasek, Raymond) 15 yards to the UNC39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSTATE.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Ricky Person Jr.

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

Leary, Devin pass incomplete, PENALTY UNC pass interference (Duck, Storm) 15 yards to the UNC24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NCSTATE.

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+24 ydsPPA +2.68

Emeka Emezie 24 Yd pass from Devin Leary (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.42

Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 16 yds to the NCaro 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Antoine Green

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Sam Howell run for 5 yds to the NCaro 46

3rd & 5Penalty-5 yds

Howell, Sam pass complete to Jones, J.J. for 14 yards to the NCSTATE40, PENALTY UNC ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the UNC41, NO PLAY.

3rd & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +3.40

Sam Howell pass complete to Josh Downs for 19 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

TEAM pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+10 yds

Howell, Sam pass incomplete to Downs, Josh, PENALTY NCSTATE holding (Pitts Jr., Derrek) 10 yards to the NCSTATE30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.19

Sam Howell pass intercepted, touchback. Derrek Pitts Jr. return for no gain

Situational Analysis

North Carolina

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
42%
31 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
25%
4 plays
67%
9 plays
80%
5 plays
3rd
0%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
60%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

NC State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
54%
28 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
75%
4 plays
43%
7 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
40%
5 plays
67%
3 plays
4th