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← Back to GamesSep 2, 2021Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

NC State by 18.2

Home Win Probability

NC State 86%

Market (consensus)

NC State -19

Edge: South Florida +19 (0.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 2, 2021

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
South FloridaSouth Florida
00000
NC StateNC State
101414745

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-010-017-024-031-038-045-0
NC StateSouth Florida

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20SFNSSFNSSFNSSFNSSFNSSFNSSFNSSFNSNSSFNSSFNSSFNSSFNSPUNT48ydTD976ydPUNT31ydPUNT38ydPUNT35ydFG930ydUncategorized00ydTD670ydPUNT30ydTO236ydPUNT823ydPUNT525ydPUNT38ydTD377ydTO560ydEND125ydPUNT531ydPUNT39ydTD454ydTO652ydTD874ydTO932ydTD1155ydDOWNS1571ydEND19yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing South Florida and NC State
StatisticSouth FloridaNC State
Passing14-3317-26
Pass Yards167232
Rush Yards104293
Total Yards271525
Turnovers31
3rd Down3-168-13
Penalties6-703-25
Possession30:4829:12

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

South Florida
passing
Timmy McClain
7/13, 126 YDS, 2 INT
rushing
Jaren Mangham
5 CAR, 26 YDS
receiving
Xavier Weaver
2 REC, 73 YDS
defense
NC State
passing
Devin Leary
17/26, 232 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Zonovan Knight
16 CAR, 163 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Emeka Emezie
5 REC, 71 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.42

Darrian Felix run for 16 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Bryce Miller

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Cade Fortin run for 2 yds to the SFla 39

3rd & 12Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.13

Cade Fortin pass complete to Latrell Williams for 6 yds to the SFla 33

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ricky Person Jr. at the NCSt 24

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.23

Zonovan Knight run for 9 yds to the NCSt 33

2nd & 1Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Devin Leary pass complete to Thayer Thomas for 3 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the NCSt 38

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.81

Zonovan Knight run for no gain to the NCSt 38

3rd & 8Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.98

Devin Leary pass complete to Christopher Toudle for 15 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka Emezie

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the SFla 44

3rd & 7Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.16

Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 11 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+33 ydsPPA +2.90

Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 33 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Cade Fortin pass complete to Latrell Williams for 1 yd to the SFla 18

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Latrell Williams

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Xavier Weaver

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 48

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Zonovan Knight run for 4 yds to the SFla 48

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the SFla 49

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin Carter

4th & 7Penalty+5 yds

Gill,Trenton punt 23 yards to the USF26, out of bounds PENALTY USF Offside (Cucci,Michael) 5 yards from USF49 to USF44. NO PLAY.

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Ben Finley punt for 38 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Jimmy Horn Jr.

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Cade Fortin run for 5 yds to the SFla 11

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Sean Atkins

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 45 yds

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.77

Ricky Person Jr. run for 8 yds to the SFla 39

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Ricky Person Jr. run for 4 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.69

Ricky Person Jr. run for no gain to the SFla 35

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.39

Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 7 yds to the SFla 28

3rd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.63

Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 6 yds to the SFla 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Ricky Person Jr. run for 7 yds to the SFla 15

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the SFla 17

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Porter Rooks

4th & 5Field Goal Good+34 yds

Christopher Dunn 34 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jaren Mangham run for no gain to the SFla 25

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.35

Brian Battie run for no gain to the SFla 25

3rd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.15

Jaren Mangham run for 7 yds to the SFla 32

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 30

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Ricky Person Jr. run for 3 yds to the NCSt 33

2nd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Devin Leary pass complete to Trent Pennix for 4 yds to the NCSt 37

3rd & 3Rush+32 ydsPPA +3.33

Ricky Person Jr. run for 32 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin Carter

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

Leary,Devin pass complete to Knight,Zonovan for 0 yards to the USF31 (Grier,Antonio) PENALTY USF Personal Foul 15 yards from USF31 to USF16, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Ricky Person Jr. run for 5 yds to the SFla 11

2nd & 5Rushing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.49

Ricky Person Jr. run for 11 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jimmy Horn Jr. run for 5 yds to the SFla 29

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Xavier Weaver

3rd & 15Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Cade Fortin pass complete to Darrian Felix for 5 yds to the SFla 34

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 66 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Leary,Devin pass incomplete to Emezie,Emeka PENALTY USF Pass Interference (Evans,Daquan) 15 yards from NCS20 to NCS35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.83

Zonovan Knight run for 21 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -3.59

Devin Leary pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Timmy McClain run for 6 yds to the SFla 41

2nd & 4Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.16

Timmy McClain run for 11 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Darrian Felix run for 2 yds to the NCSt 46

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Darrian Felix run for 6 yds to the NCSt 40

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -1.13

Darrian Felix run for no gain to the NCSt 40

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Darrian Felix run for 6 yds to the NCSt 41

2nd & 16Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.48

Timmy McClain run for 7 yds to the NCSt 34

3rd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.65

Timmy McClain run for 8 yds to the NCSt 42

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 10

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Zonovan Knight run for 4 yds to the NCSt 14

2nd & 6Rush+26 ydsPPA +2.08

Zonovan Knight run for 26 yds to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the NCSt 42

2nd & 8Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.63

Devin Leary sacked by Antonio Grier for a loss of 7 yards to the NCSt 35

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Thayer Thomas

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Trenton Gill punt for 57 yds, fair catch by Xavier Weaver at the SFla 8

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Latrell Williams

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Bryce Miller

3rd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.10

Timmy McClain pass complete to Darrian Felix for 8 yds to the SFla 16

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 61 yds

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Leary,Devin pass complete to Person,Ricky for 0 yards to the NCS23 (Mims,Andrew), out of bounds PENALTY USF UNR: Unnecessary Roughness (Green,Blake) 15 yards from NCS23 to NCS38, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Reception+51 ydsPPA +2.43

Devin Leary pass complete to Devin Carter for 51 yds to the SFla 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin Carter

2nd & 10Rushing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.81

Ricky Person Jr. run for 11 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

NC STATE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the SFla 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+44 ydsPPA +2.91

Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 44 yds to the NCSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Latrell Williams

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Timmy McClain pass incomplete to Xavier Weaver

3rd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -3.24

Timmy McClain pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+25 ydsPPA +1.35

Zonovan Knight run for 25 yds to the NCSt 32 for a 1ST down

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.13

Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 12 yds to the NCSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.15

Zonovan Knight run for 14 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.97

Zonovan Knight run for no gain to the SFla 44

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Keyon Lesane

3rd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 5 yds to the SFla 39

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Trenton Gill punt for 33 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Jaren Mangham run for 1 yd to the SFla 5

2nd & 11Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.26

Timmy McClain pass complete to Bryce Miller for 9 yds to the SFla 14

3rd & 2Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Timmy McClain pass complete to Jaren Mangham for 1 yd to the SFla 15

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Thayer Thomas at the NCSt 46

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.65

Zonovan Knight run for 7 yds to the SFla 47

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.97

Zonovan Knight run for 1 yd to the SFla 46

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Christopher Toudle

4th & 2Rushing Touchdown+46 ydsPPA +5.66

Zonovan Knight run for 46 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Brian Battie run for 1 yd to the SFla 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +3.19

Timmy McClain pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 29 yds to the NCSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +0.93

Timmy McClain pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 31 yds to the NCSt 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Brian Battie run for 2 yds to the NCSt 12

2nd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Timmy McClain pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 4 yds to the NCSt 8

3rd & 19Interception0 ydsPPA -2.52

Timmy McClain pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.62

Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 7 yds to the NCSt 33

2nd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.53

Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 6 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Ricky Person Jr. run for 7 yds to the NCSt 46

2nd & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.31

Devin Leary pass complete to Ricky Person Jr. for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +1.32

Devin Leary pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 39 yds to the SFla 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the SFla 9

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the SFla 7

3rd & 6Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.84

Devin Leary pass complete to Christopher Toudle for 7 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.26

Darrian Felix run for no gain to the SFla 3

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.52

Cade Fortin pass complete to Omarion Dollison for 10 yds to the SFla 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.55

Cade Fortin run for 11 yds to the SFla 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.43

Darrian Felix run for 2 yds to the SFla 26

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Omarion Dollison

3rd & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.79

Cade Fortin pass complete to Bryce Miller for 9 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Yusuf Terry

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Xavier Weaver

3rd & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -0.14

Cade Fortin pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Ricky Person Jr. run for 2 yds to the NCSt 47

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Ricky Person Jr. run for 1 yd to the NCSt 48

3rd & 7Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.62

Devin Leary pass complete to C.J. Riley for 12 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.43

Ricky Person Jr. run for 12 yds to the SFla 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the SFla 24

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the SFla 22

3rd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.51

Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the SFla 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.27

Devin Leary pass complete to Julian Gray for 10 yds to the SFla 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY NCS False Start (Smith,Anthony) 5 yards from USF08 to USF13. NO PLAY.

1st & 13Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the SFla 9

2nd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.29

Devin Leary run for 8 yds to the SFla 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Jordan Houston run for 1 yd for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Omarion Dollison run for 4 yds to the SFla 21

2nd & 14Rush+17 ydsPPA +2.14

Jaren Mangham run for 17 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Jaren Mangham run for 3 yds to the SFla 41

2nd & 7Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.54

Brian Battie run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.03

Cade Fortin pass complete to Brian Battie for 20 yds to the NCSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Brian Battie run for 4 yds to the NCSt 34

2nd & 14Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.82

Kelley Joiner run for 10 yds to the NCSt 24

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.58

Kelley Joiner run for 5 yds to the NCSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Cade Fortin pass complete to Kelley Joiner for 2 yds to the NCSt 17

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Kelley Joiner run for 4 yds to the NCSt 13

3rd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.64

Cade Fortin run for 6 yds to the NCSt 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Chris Carter

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Cade Fortin run for 3 yds to the NCSt 4

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Xavier Weaver

4th & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -4.02

Cade Fortin pass incomplete to Xavier Weaver

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.69

Delbert Mimms III run for 9 yds to the NCSt 13

Situational Analysis

South Florida

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
31%
26 plays
2nd
100%
1 play
33%
15 plays
80%
5 plays
3rd
0%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
57%
7 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play

NC State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
55%
31 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
33%
6 plays
50%
4 plays
30%
10 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
80%
5 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play