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← Back to GamesNov 11, 2020Week 11
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Buffalo by 20.1

Home Win Probability

Buffalo 90%

Market (consensus)

Buffalo -7.5

Edge: Buffalo -7.5 (12.6 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 11, 2020

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Miami (OH)Miami (OH)
070310
BuffaloBuffalo
01421742

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-014-721-728-735-742-10
BuffaloMiami (OH)

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20M(BUFM(BUFM(BUFM(BUFM(BUFM(BUFM(M(BUFM(BUFM(BUFBUFM(BUFM(BUFPUNT413ydDOWNS1350ydPUNT525ydPUNT513ydMISS715ydTD1474ydTO621ydTD178ydPUNT34ydPUNT34ydTD543ydPUNT620ydEND1-2ydPUNT30ydTD981ydPUNT431ydTD782ydPUNT3-2ydTD662ydTD284ydFG1060ydPUNT31ydDOWNS837ydUncategorized14yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Miami (OH) and Buffalo
StatisticMiami (OH)Buffalo
Passing8-2617-27
Pass Yards119353
Rush Yards139205
Total Yards258558
Turnovers10
3rd Down3-146-13
Penalties5-456-52
Possession24:5733:21

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Miami (OH)
passing
AJ Mayer
7/25, 116 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Zach Kahn
8 CAR, 39 YDS
receiving
Jack Sorenson
3 REC, 38 YDS
defense
Buffalo
passing
Kyle Vantrease
17/27, 353 YDS, 4 TD
rushing
Kevin Marks
16 CAR, 109 YDS
receiving
Antonio Nunn
5 REC, 137 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

AJ Mayer pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 11 yds to the MiaOh 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Jeremiah Josephs run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 38

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

AJ Mayer pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

AJ Mayer pass incomplete to James Burns

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Henry Beckett punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 23

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

VANTREASE, Kyle pass incomplete to NUNN, Antonio, PENALTY MIAMI holding (WEATHERFORD, S.) 10 yards to the UB33, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Buff 35

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.55

Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds to the Buff 42

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.11

Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.96

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jovany Ruiz for 8 yds to the MiaOh 48

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.13

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Bernard Porter for 6 yds to the MiaOh 40

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

3rd & 4Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.32

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 41

4th & 5Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +2.57

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 5 yds to the MiaOh 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio Nunn

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.41

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 29

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 27

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -3.21

Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the MiaOh 27

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Kevin Davis run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 33

2nd & 4Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.90

AJ Mayer pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 19 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

AJ Mayer pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.05

Ontario Russell run for no gain to the Buff 48

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

AJ Mayer pass incomplete to James Burns, broken up by Tyrone Hill

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Dom Dzioban punt for 45 yds, downed at the Buff 3

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Buff 5

2nd & 8Penalty+5 yds

MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Buff 10

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.05

Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Buff 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Buff 16

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Zac Lefebvre, broken up by Sterling Weatherford

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio Nunn

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Evan Finegan punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 40

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.64

Zach Kahn run for 8 yds to the Buff 32

2nd & 2Rush+9 ydsPPA -0.11

Kevin Davis run for 9 yds to the Buff 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.42

Zach Kahn run for no gain to the Buff 23

2nd & 10Penalty+7 yds

MAYER, AJ pass incomplete to SORENSON, Jack (HUDGENS, Logic), PENALTY UB pass interference (HUDGENS, Logic) 7 yards to the UB16, 1ST DOWN MIAMI, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.40

Zach Kahn run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 17

2nd & 11Penalty-10 yds

MAYER, AJ pass incomplete to SORENSON, Jack, PENALTY MIAMI holding (SHAFFER, Caleb) 10 yards to the UB27, NO PLAY.

2nd & 21Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Zach Kahn run for 2 yds to the Buff 25

3rd & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

AJ Mayer pass incomplete to Jack Sorenson, broken up by Logic Hudgens

4th & 19Field Goal Missed+44 yds

Henry Beckett 44 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds to the Buff 29

2nd & 7Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.17

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Kevin Marks Jr. for 7 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio Nunn

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 4 yds to the Buff 40

3rd & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.46

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.84

Kyle Vantrease run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 42

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Bernard Porter

3rd & 2Rush+30 ydsPPA +1.60

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 30 yds to the MiaOh 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 8

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 4

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Kyle Vantrease run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 3

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.88

Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.13

Kyle Vantrease run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 2

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

AJ Mayer pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Ontario Russell run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 26

3rd & 9Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.89

AJ Mayer pass complete to Kevin Davis for 20 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

AJ Mayer pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

AJ Mayer pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.72

AJ Mayer pass intercepted Roy Baker return for no gain to the Buff 22

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+78 ydsPPA +6.27

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 78 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.04

AJ Mayer pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 8 yds to the MiaOh 43

2nd & 2Penalty-10 yds

KAHN, Zach rush for 3 yards to the MIAMI46 (MYERS, Matt), PENALTY MIAMI holding (DOYLE, Tommy) 10 yards to the MIAMI33, NO PLAY.

2nd & 12Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Zach Kahn run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 39

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

AJ Mayer pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Dom Dzioban punt for 58 yds, downed at the Buff 3

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 7

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.24

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio Nunn

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Trevor Wilson, broken up by Cedric Boswell

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Evan Finegan punt for 36 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

AJ Mayer pass incomplete to James Burns

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.84

Ontario Russell run for 1 yd to the Buff 42

3rd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.52

Kevin Davis run for 7 yds to the Buff 35

4th & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.70

Kevin Davis run for 2 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+33 ydsPPA +2.90

AJ Mayer pass complete to Jalen Walker for 33 yds for a TD, (Henry Beckett KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 11 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Jovany Ruiz

2nd & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.18

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 12 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 48

3rd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 45

4th & 3Penalty-5 yds

[PSTL], PENALTY UB delay of game 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.

4th & 8Penalty-5 yds

BUFFALO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 45

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Evan Finegan punt for 48 yds, downed at the MiaOh 7

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.38

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 5

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

AJ Mayer pass incomplete to Jalen Walker

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

AJ Mayer pass incomplete to Jack Coldiron

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

AJ Mayer pass incomplete to Kevin Davis, broken up by Kadofi Wright

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Dom Dzioban punt for 59 yds, downed at the Buff 16

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.83

Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Buff 21 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive holding (Anthony Collier) to the Buff 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.38

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jake Molinich for 6 yds to the Buff 37

2nd & 4Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.81

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 19 yds to the MiaOh 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.93

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 9 yds to the MiaOh 35

2nd & 1Rush+15 ydsPPA -0.14

Jaret Patterson run for 15 yds to the MiaOh 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.37

Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the MiaOh 20

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 15

3rd & 5Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.01

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jovany Ruiz for 14 yds to the MiaOh 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +2.53

AJ Mayer pass complete to Austin Robinson for 29 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Kevin Davis run for 2 yds to the Buff 44

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

AJ Mayer pass incomplete to James Burns

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

AJ Mayer pass incomplete to James Burns, broken up by Tyrone Hill

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Dom Dzioban punt for 26 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 20

2nd & 8Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.54

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Trevor Wilson for 25 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 5Penalty-10 yds

[PSTL], VANTREASE, Kyle pass complete to RUIZ, Jovany for 19 yards to the MIAMI31, out-of-bounds (SALOPEK, Matt), PENALTY UB holding (THOMAS-ISHMAN,) 10 yards to the UB40, NO PLAY.

2nd & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 5 yds to the Buff 45

3rd & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +3.53

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 25 yds to the MiaOh 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 25

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+25 ydsPPA +2.74

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 25 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Kevin Davis run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -0.58

AJ Mayer pass complete to Kevin Davis for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaOh 22

3rd & 13Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.08

AJ Mayer run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 23

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Dom Dzioban punt for 39 yds

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds to the Buff 44

2nd & 4Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.01

Jaret Patterson run for 10 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+38 ydsPPA +1.22

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 38 yds to the MiaOh 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.36

Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the MiaOh 8

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.08

Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 5

3rd & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.76

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jovany Ruiz for 5 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Kevin Marks Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 18

2nd & 8Passing Touchdown+82 ydsPPA +6.88

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 82 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Kevin Davis run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 39

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Zach Kahn run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 43

3rd & 2Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.79

Zach Kahn run for 8 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

AJ Mayer pass incomplete to Austin Robinson

2nd & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.81

Zach Kahn run for 12 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+32 ydsPPA +1.17

Kenny Tracy run for 32 yds to the Buff 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Kenny Tracy run for no gain to the Buff 5

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Kenny Tracy run for no gain to the Buff 5

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

AJ Mayer pass incomplete to Jack Coldiron, broken up by Kadofi Wright

4th & 5Field Goal Good+24 yds

Henry Beckett 24 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

[PSTL], COOK, Ron rush for 7 yards to the UB32 (MILLER, Mehki), PENALTY UB holding 10 yards to the UB15, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.09

Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 17

2nd & 18Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.08

Ron Cook Jr. run for 7 yds to the Buff 24

3rd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.09

Ron Cook Jr. run for 2 yds to the Buff 26

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Jackson Baltar punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaOh 33

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.33

Aveon Smith run for 14 yds to the MiaOh 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Kenny Tracy run for 4 yds to the Buff 49

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Kenny Tracy run for 3 yds to the Buff 46

3rd & 3Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.66

Aveon Smith run for 10 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Aveon Smith pass complete to Kenny Tracy for 3 yds to the Buff 33

2nd & 7Fumble Recovery (Own)-1 ydsPPA -1.01

Kenny Tracy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 34 Kenny Tracy fumbled, forced by Kyler Laing,

3rd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Aveon Smith run for 4 yds to the Buff 30

4th & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -2.60

Kenny Tracy run for no gain to the Buff 30

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the Buff 34

2nd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.92

N/A run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 33

3rd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.40

N/A run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 32

Situational Analysis

Miami (OH)

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
35%
23 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
25%
4 plays
10%
10 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
0%
2 plays
25%
8 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

Buffalo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
44%
27 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
20%
5 plays
43%
7 plays
64%
11 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
50%
6 plays
33%
3 plays
0%
1 play
4th
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play