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← Back to GamesNov 21, 2020Week 12

House Prediction

Model Margin

Troy by 20

Home Win Probability

Troy 87%

Market (consensus)

Troy -11

Edge: Troy -11 (9.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 21, 2020

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Middle TennesseeMiddle Tennessee
7100320
TroyTroy
370717

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014283-03-73-1410-1710-2017-20
TroyMiddle Tennessee

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20TROMTTROMTTROMTTROMTTROMTTROMTTROMTTROMTTROMTTROMTFG1068ydPUNT524ydTO939ydTD1166ydPUNT6-4ydTD1171ydTD770ydFG1370ydMISS329ydPUNT729ydPUNT33ydPUNT516ydPUNT36ydPUNT3-5ydTO858ydMISS1164ydPUNT428ydFG1051ydTD1185ydEND1-1yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Middle Tennessee and Troy
StatisticMiddle TennesseeTroy
Passing19-2325-39
Pass Yards210300
Rush Yards18692
Total Yards396392
Turnovers02
3rd Down5-138-14
Penalties2-255-39
Possession37:2122:39

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Middle Tennessee
passing
Asher O'Hara
19/23, 210 YDS
rushing
Asher O'Hara
25 CAR, 86 YDS
receiving
Yusuf Ali
7 REC, 90 YDS
defense
Troy
passing
Gunnar Watson
25/39, 300 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
B.J. Smith
10 CAR, 62 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Khalil McClain
6 REC, 92 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.55

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 16

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.18

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to B.J. Smith

3rd & 11Pass Reception+40 ydsPPA +3.86

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 40 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Reggie Todd, broken up by Teldrick Ross

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.48

B.J. Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 46

3rd & 12Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +3.22

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jamontez Woods for 25 yds to the MTnSt 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.92

Gunnar Watson sacked by Jordan Branch and Johnathan Butler for a loss of 8 yards to the MTnSt 29

3rd & 18Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.58

Jamontez Woods run for 14 yds to the MTnSt 15

4th & 4Field Goal Good+33 yds

Evan Legassey 33 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Frank Peasant run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 26

2nd & 9Rush+23 ydsPPA +2.74

Asher O'Hara run for 23 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Asher O'Hara run for 2 yds to the Troy 49

2nd & 8Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.49

Asher O'Hara sacked by Antonio Showers for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 49

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Asher O'Hara pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Kyle Ulbrich punt for 51 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.80

Gunnar Watson run for 8 yds to the Troy 28

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.16

B.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the Troy 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 5 yds to the Troy 38

2nd & 5Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.86

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 5 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

DK Billingsley run for 6 yds to the Troy 49

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.45

DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 48

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.98

Jamontez Woods run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tray Eafford for 5 yds to the MTnSt 41

2nd & 5Pass Interception Return+4 ydsPPA -3.55

Gunnar Watson pass intercepted Johnathan Butler return for 4 yds to the MTnSt 34

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Chaton Mobley run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 43

2nd & 1Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.54

Chaton Mobley run for 13 yds to the Troy 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Asher O'Hara run for 2 yds to the Troy 42

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Chaton Mobley run for 5 yds to the Troy 37

3rd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.02

Asher O'Hara run for 6 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Jayy McDonald run for 3 yds to the Troy 28

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Jayy McDonald run for 2 yds to the Troy 26

3rd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.75

Asher O'Hara run for 6 yds to the Troy 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.55

Asher O'Hara run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 22

2nd & 12Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.48

Asher O'Hara pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 18 yds to the Troy 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Chaton Mobley run for 4 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Tez Johnson run for 5 yds to the Troy 26

2nd & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.72

Jamontez Woods run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 25

3rd & 6Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.01

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tray Eafford for 13 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Reggie Todd

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

Watson, Gunnar sideline pass incomplete to Billingsley, DK (ROSS, Teldrick), PENALTY TROY false start (Andrews, Jake) 5 yards to the TROY33, NO PLAY.

2nd & 15Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.60

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 9 yds to the Troy 42

3rd & 6Fumble Recovery (Own)-14 ydsPPA -1.19

Gunnar Watson sacked by DQ Thomas for a loss of 14 yards to the Troy 17 Gunnar Watson fumbled, recovered by Troy Reggie Todd , return for 0 yards

4th & 31Punt0 yds

Jack Martin punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Reed Blankenship at the MTnSt 29

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for 6 yds to the MTnSt 35

2nd & 4Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.65

Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 16 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.71

Asher O'Hara run for 12 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.31

Frank Peasant run for 10 yds to the Troy 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the Troy 25

2nd & 8Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.46

Asher O'Hara sacked by Luis Medina for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 30

3rd & 13Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.21

Asher O'Hara pass complete to CJ Windham for 12 yds to the Troy 18

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.69

Asher O'Hara run for 2 yds to the Troy 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Asher O'Hara run for 1 yd to the Troy 15

2nd & 9Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.94

Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 10 yds to the Troy 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Frank Peasant run for 5 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.86

B.J. Smith run for no gain to the Troy 30

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 4 yds to the Troy 34

3rd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +2.08

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 8 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Kaylon Geiger

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the Troy 45

3rd & 7Penalty-5 yds

TROY Penalty, false start (Grant Betts) to the Troy 40

3rd & 12Pass Reception+58 ydsPPA +5.55

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 58 yds to the MTnSt 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

B.J. Smith run for 2 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Asher O'Hara pass complete to DJ England-Chisolm for 9 yds to the MTnSt 34

2nd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Chaton Mobley run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Asher O'Hara run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 39

2nd & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.48

Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 10 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Asher O'Hara run for 3 yds to the Troy 48

2nd & 7Penalty+14 yds

O'HARA, Asher deep pass incomplete to ANDERSON, Brad, PENALTY TROY personal foul (Choloh, Will) 14 yards to the TROY34, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Asher O'Hara run for 5 yds to the Troy 29

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Chaton Mobley run for 6 yds to the Troy 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Asher O'Hara run for 4 yds to the Troy 19

2nd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.17

Asher O'Hara pass complete to Joeseph Sewell for 8 yds to the Troy 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Chaton Mobley run for 8 yds to the Troy 3

2nd & 2Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.63

Chaton Mobley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 5

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Asher O'Hara pass incomplete

4th & 4Field Goal Good+22 yds

Crews Holt 22 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +2.17

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 29 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Field Goal Missed+53 yds

Evan Legassey 53 yd FG MISSED

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Frank Peasant run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.77

Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 13 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 5 yds to the MTnSt 45

2nd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.03

Asher O'Hara run for 8 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Asher O'Hara run for 2 yds to the Troy 45

2nd & 8Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.32

DJ England-Chisolm run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 46

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Jarrin Pierce

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Kyle Ulbrich punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tez Johnson at the Troy 11

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reggie Todd for 3 yds to the Troy 14

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Khalil McClain

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Kaylon Geiger

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Jack Martin punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Reed Blankenship at the MTnSt 42

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Jayy McDonald run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 43

2nd & 9Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.48

Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 21 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.90

Jayy McDonald run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 37

2nd & 11Penalty-10 yds

O'HARA, Asher rush up middle for 1 yard to the TROY36 (Robertson, K.J.), PENALTY MT holding (FALVEY, Tyler) 10 yards to the TROY47, NO PLAY.

2nd & 21Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Asher O'Hara pass incomplete to Yusuf Ali

3rd & 21Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Asher O'Hara run for 5 yds to the Troy 42

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Asher O'Hara punt for 36 yds, downed at the Troy 6

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Kaylon Geiger

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.08

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Bret Clark for 6 yds to the Troy 12

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.17

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Jamontez Woods

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Jack Martin punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Reed Blankenship at the MTnSt 48

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Chaton Mobley run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Chaton Mobley run for 4 yds to the Troy 46

3rd & 4Sack-11 ydsPPA -2.30

Asher O'Hara sacked by Will Choloh for a loss of 11 yards to the MTnSt 43

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Kyle Ulbrich punt for 36 yds , Tez Johnson returns for no gain to the Troy 21

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 23

2nd & 8Rush+24 ydsPPA +2.61

B.J. Smith run for 24 yds to the Troy 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.46

B.J. Smith run for 13 yds to the MTnSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.39

B.J. Smith run for 14 yds to the MTnSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 22

2nd & 9Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.38

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 1 yd to the MTnSt 21

3rd & 8Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.63

Gunnar Watson pass intercepted, touchback. Gregory Grate Jr. return for no gain

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.80

Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 8 yds to the MTnSt 28

2nd & 2Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.22

Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 16 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jarrin Pierce for 4 yds to the MTnSt 48

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Frank Peasant run for 5 yds to the Troy 47

3rd & 1Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.55

DJ England-Chisolm run for 15 yds to the Troy 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.37

Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 7 yds to the Troy 25

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.11

Asher O'Hara run for 5 yds to the Troy 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

O'HARA, Asher pass incomplete, PENALTY MT face mask (HINTON, Dorian) 15 yards to the TROY35, NO PLAY.

1st & 25Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.82

Asher O'Hara pass complete to Brad Anderson for 10 yds to the Troy 25

2nd & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.39

Asher O'Hara run for 2 yds to the Troy 23

3rd & 13Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.33

Asher O'Hara run for 7 yds to the Troy 16

4th & 6Field Goal Missed+33 yds

Crews Holt 33 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.63

Jamontez Woods run for 20 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Jamontez Woods run for 1 yd to the Troy 41

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Jamontez Woods run for 2 yds to the Troy 43

3rd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Marcus Rogers for 5 yds to the Troy 48

4th & 2Punt+34 yds

Jack Martin punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Reed Blankenship at the TROY 13 TROY Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the MTnSt 18

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Chaton Mobley run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 20

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.33

Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 7 yds to the MTnSt 27

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.80

Chaton Mobley run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Asher O'Hara run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 31

2nd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.44

Asher O'Hara pass complete to Jaylin Lane for 7 yds to the MTnSt 38

3rd & 2Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.82

Asher O'Hara pass complete to Yusuf Ali for 23 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Chaton Mobley run for 2 yds to the Troy 37

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Asher O'Hara run for 4 yds to the Troy 33

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Asher O'Hara run for 2 yds to the Troy 31

4th & 2Field Goal Good+49 yds

Crews Holt 49 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 3 yds to the Troy 18

2nd & 7Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.95

Gunnar Watson pass complete to B.J. Smith for 10 yds to the Troy 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.32

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 9 yds to the Troy 37

2nd & 1Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.24

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 21 yds to the MTnSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Reggie Todd

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tez Johnson for 4 yds to the MTnSt 38

3rd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.57

Gunnar Watson pass complete to DK Billingsley for 9 yds to the MTnSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.22

Gunnar Watson pass complete to DK Billingsley for 13 yds to the MTnSt 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Reggie Todd

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.29

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Tray Eafford for 8 yds to the MTnSt 8

3rd & 2Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.61

Gunnar Watson pass complete to Khalil McClain for 8 yds for a TD (Evan Legassey KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.26

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 47

Situational Analysis

Middle Tennessee

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
2 plays
33%
30 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
40%
5 plays
100%
6 plays
54%
13 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
100%
4 plays
25%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
100%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Troy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
38%
26 plays
2nd
100%
2 plays
25%
4 plays
38%
13 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
60%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
100%
4 plays
4th