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← Back to GamesDec 30, 2019Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Louisville by 2.3

Home Win Probability

Louisville 51%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Dec 30, 2019

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Mississippi StateMississippi State
7701428
LouisvilleLouisville
010141438

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-70-147-1410-1424-1431-2138-28
LouisvilleMississippi State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSLOUMSLOUMSLOUMSLOULOUMSLOULOUMSLOUMSMSLOUMSLOUMSLOUMSLOUPUNT36ydTO896ydTD899ydPUNT34ydPUNT3-2ydPUNT424ydTD1080ydTD572ydTO50ydPUNT3-1ydEND1050ydMISS1164ydPUNT30ydTD755ydTD411ydPUNT31ydTD665ydTD975ydPUNT515ydDOWNS941ydTD652ydTD786ydUncategorized00yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Mississippi State and Louisville
StatisticMississippi StateLouisville
Passing17-2617-25
Pass Yards221312
Rush Yards145199
Total Yards366511
Turnovers21
3rd Down4-116-11
Penalties2-206-50
Possession28:2628:27

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Mississippi State
passing
Tommy Stevens
17/26, 221 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Tommy Stevens
17 CAR, 71 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Stephen Guidry
6 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Louisville
passing
Malik Cunningham
16/23, 279 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Javian Hawkins
23 CAR, 105 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Chatarius Atwell
9 REC, 147 YDS
defense
C.J. Avery
2.5 TFL

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.32

Kylin Hill run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 33

2nd & 12Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.52

Lee Witherspoon run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 32

3rd & 13Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.35

Tommy Stevens run for 9 yds to the MisSt 41

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 56 yds, downed at the Lvile 3

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.68

Micale Cunningham run for 9 yds to the Lvile 12

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Javian Hawkins run for 3 yds to the Lvile 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.85

Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 14 yds to the Lvile 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.50

Javian Hawkins run for 16 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.23

Tutu Atwell run for 9 yds to the MisSt 46

2nd & 1Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +0.36

Micale Cunningham pass complete to Jordan Davis for 22 yds to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.54

Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 25

2nd & 11Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+24 ydsPPA -3.78

Micale Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 24 yds Dez Fitzpatrick fumbled, forced by Willie Gay Jr., recovered by MisSt Tim Washington

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Tommy Stevens run for 2 yds to the MisSt 3

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Stephen Guidry

3rd & 8Rush+24 ydsPPA +1.37

Tommy Stevens run for 24 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.47

Tommy Stevens run for 16 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.92

Lee Witherspoon run for 11 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +0.94

Tommy Stevens pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 27 yds to the Lvile 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

Payton, JaVonta rush for loss of 4 yards to the LOUISVILLE23, PENALTY LOUISVILLE face mask (Avery, C.J.) 10 yards to the LOUISVILLE9, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.

1st & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Lee Witherspoon run for 6 yds to the Lvile 3

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.21

Tommy Stevens run for 3 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.24

Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 28

2nd & 13Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.26

Javian Hawkins run for 7 yds to the Lvile 35

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Micale Cunningham pass incomplete to Tutu Atwell

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Mason King punt for 41 yds, downed at the MisSt 24

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.77

Kylin Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 23

2nd & 11Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.41

Tommy Stevens sacked by C.J. Avery for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 18

3rd & 16Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Tommy Stevens run for 4 yds to the MisSt 22

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 55 yds, downed at the Lvile 23

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.65

Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 19 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Hassan Hall run for 6 yds to the Lvile 48

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.24

Micale Cunningham pass incomplete to Tutu Atwell

3rd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.08

Hassan Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 47

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Mason King punt for 53 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+11 ydsPPA +0.78

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 11 yds Stephen Guidry fumbled, forced by Chandler Jones, recovered by MisSt for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.38

Nick Gibson run for 6 yds to the MisSt 37

2nd & 4Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.54

Nick Gibson run for 15 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Isaiah Zuber

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Isaiah Zuber

3rd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.76

Tommy Stevens run for 11 yds to the Lvile 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.41

Nick Gibson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Personal Foul (Dorian Etheridge) to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.41

Nick Gibson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 38 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Personal Foul (Dorian Etheridge) to the Lvile 23 for a 1ST down. (Dorian Etheridge ejected from game)

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.98

Nick Gibson run for 19 yds to the Lvile 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.52

Lee Witherspoon run for 1 yd to the Lvile 3

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.21

Nick Gibson run for 3 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.20

Micale Cunningham pass complete to Dez Fitzpatrick for 13 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Javian Hawkins run for 6 yds to the Lvile 47

2nd & 4Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.97

Micale Cunningham run for 11 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.88

Micale Cunningham run for 9 yds to the MisSt 33

2nd & 1Passing Touchdown+33 ydsPPA +2.41

Tutu Atwell pass complete to Marshon Ford for 33 yds for a TD (Ryan Chalifoux KICK)

1st & 10Rush-9 ydsPPA -2.33

Javian Hawkins run for 1 yd to the MisSt 32 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cole Bentley) to the MisSt 42

1st & 19Penalty-5 yds

LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Tutu Atwell) to the MisSt 47

1st & 24Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.05

Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 48

2nd & 25Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.75

Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 19 yds to the MisSt 29

3rd & 6Penalty-5 yds

LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 34

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Micale Cunningham pass incomplete to Hassan Hall

4th & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.38

Micale Cunningham pass incomplete to Dez Fitzpatrick

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 6 yds to the MisSt 40

2nd & 4Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.14

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Farrod Green for no gain to the MisSt 40

3rd & 4Rush-7 ydsPPA -1.13

Kylin Hill run for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 33

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Rodjay Burns at the Lvile 37

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.40

Micale Cunningham run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 35

2nd & 12Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.35

Javian Hawkins run for 12 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.95

Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 14 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.66

Micale Cunningham sacked by Chauncey Rivers for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 43

2nd & 14Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 4 yds to the MisSt 39

3rd & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.30

Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 16 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.32

Micale Cunningham sacked by Kobe Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 30

2nd & 17Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.95

Micale Cunningham run for 12 yds to the MisSt 18

3rd & 5Penalty+5 yds

TEAM pass incomplete, PENALTY MISSSTATE offside (Jones, Kobe) 5 yards to the MISSSTATE13, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LOUISVILLE.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Tutu Atwell pass incomplete to Justin Marshall

2nd & 10Field Goal Good+31 ydsPPA -1.16

Ryan Chalifoux 31 yd FG GOOD

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.80

Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 16

2nd & 14Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Javian Hawkins run for 5 yds to the Lvile 21

3rd & 9Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.98

Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 25 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.89

Javian Hawkins run for 12 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.57

Micale Cunningham sacked by Aaron Brule for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 45

2nd & 13Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Javian Hawkins run for 3 yds to the MisSt 42

3rd & 10Rush+23 ydsPPA +2.65

Micale Cunningham run for 23 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.28

Micale Cunningham run for 1 yd to the MisSt 18

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Javian Hawkins run for 3 yds to the MisSt 15

3rd & 6Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.62

Micale Cunningham sacked by Marquiss Spencer for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 16

4th & 7Field Goal Missed+34 yds

Ryan Chalifoux 34 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Nick Gibson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 22

2nd & 8Sack-10 ydsPPA -0.61

Tommy Stevens sacked by Boosie Whitlow for a loss of 10 yards to the MisSt 12

3rd & 18Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.04

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 8 yds to the MisSt 20

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Lvile 45

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Micale Cunningham pass incomplete to Seth Dawkins

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.91

Javian Hawkins run for no gain to the Lvile 45

3rd & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +3.34

Micale Cunningham run for 19 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.72

Javian Hawkins run for no gain to the MisSt 36

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Micale Cunningham pass incomplete to Seth Dawkins

3rd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.99

Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 12 yds to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+24 ydsPPA +2.68

Micale Cunningham pass complete to Devante Peete for 24 yds for a TD (Ryan Chalifoux KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.87

Tommy Stevens pass complete to JaVonta Payton for 12 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Tommy Stevens run for 1 yd to the MisSt 33

2nd & 9Sack-13 ydsPPA -1.07

Tommy Stevens sacked by Chandler Jones for a loss of 13 yards to the MisSt 20

3rd & 22Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+31 ydsPPA +0.35

Tommy Stevens run for 11 yds Tommy Stevens fumbled, forced by Gary McCrae, recovered by Lvile Khane Pass , return for 31 yds (Ryan Chalifoux KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Tommy Stevens run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 24

2nd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.19

Kylin Hill run for 2 yds to the MisSt 26

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Dontea Jones

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Tucker Day punt for 39 yds , Rodjay Burns returns for no gain to the Lvile 35

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Micale Cunningham run for 2 yds to the Lvile 37

2nd & 8Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.73

Micale Cunningham pass complete to Tutu Atwell for 24 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.02

Hassan Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 40

2nd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Micale Cunningham run for 3 yds to the MisSt 37

3rd & 8Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +2.20

Micale Cunningham pass complete to Justin Marshall for 29 yds to the MisSt 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.32

Micale Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 8 yds for a TD (Ryan Chalifoux KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Farrod Green

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Nick Gibson run for 7 yds to the MisSt 32

3rd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.22

Nick Gibson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Tommy Stevens run for 4 yds to the MisSt 39

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Dontea Jones

3rd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +2.18

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Farrod Green for 7 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.34

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 23 yds to the Lvile 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.25

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Geor'quarius Spivey for 13 yds to the Lvile 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+18 ydsPPA +2.59

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 18 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Javian Hawkins run for 7 yds to the Lvile 42

2nd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.53

Javian Hawkins run for 6 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.80

Javian Hawkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 45

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Micale Cunningham pass incomplete to Tutu Atwell

3rd & 13Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Micale Cunningham run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Mason King punt for 39 yds, downed at the MisSt 11

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Kylin Hill run for 6 yds to the MisSt 17

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.27

Kylin Hill run for 5 yds to the MisSt 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Kylin Hill for 6 yds to the MisSt 28

2nd & 4Penalty+5 yds

LOUISVILLE Penalty, Substitution Infraction (Robert Hicks) to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Kylin Hill run for no gain to the MisSt 33

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.20

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 13 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Nick Gibson

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.94

Tommy Stevens run for no gain to the MisSt 46

3rd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Nick Gibson for 6 yds to the Lvile 48

4th & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Kylin Hill

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Javian Hawkins run for 5 yds to the MisSt 47

2nd & 5Rush+24 ydsPPA +1.24

Javian Hawkins run for 24 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Javian Hawkins run for 2 yds to the MisSt 21

2nd & 8Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.47

Micale Cunningham pass complete to Marshon Ford for 12 yds to the MisSt 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Micale Cunningham run for 4 yds to the MisSt 5

2nd & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.44

Javian Hawkins run for 5 yds for a TD (Ryan Chalifoux KICK)

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.66

Tommy Stevens sacked by C.J. Avery for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 7

2nd & 17Rush+22 ydsPPA +1.54

Tommy Stevens run for 22 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.85

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Stephen Guidry for 20 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.95

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Farrod Green for 16 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Tommy Stevens pass incomplete to Farrod Green

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.98

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 11 yds to the Lvile 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+24 ydsPPA +2.68

Tommy Stevens pass complete to Osirus Mitchell for 24 yds for a TD (Jace Christmann KICK)

No play data available

Situational Analysis

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
59%
32 plays
2nd
100%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
38%
8 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
50%
2 plays
75%
4 plays
75%
4 plays
4th
0%
1 play

Louisville

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
47%
32 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
75%
4 plays
75%
4 plays
33%
6 plays
50%
10 plays
3rd
0%
3 plays
100%
6 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play