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← Back to GamesNov 21, 2019Week 13
ToledoToledo
30
-Final
49
BuffaloBuffalo
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Buffalo by 10.4

Home Win Probability

Buffalo 69%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Nov 21, 2019

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
ToledoToledo
7133730
BuffaloBuffalo
141471449

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842567-014-721-1421-1728-1728-2035-2342-2349-2349-30
BuffaloToledo

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20BUFTOLBUFTOLBUFTOLBUFTOLBUFTOLBUFTOLBUFTOLTOLBUFTOLBUFTOLBUFTOLBUFTOLBUFPUNT38ydPUNT619ydPUNT31ydMISS47ydTD1080ydTO22ydTD124ydTD645ydPUNT38ydTD259ydTD1075ydFG1154ydTD775ydFG643ydFG852ydTD1475ydDOWNS956ydPUNT33ydPUNT3-8ydTD872ydDOWNS634ydTD1078ydTD1064ydEND1-1yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Toledo and Buffalo
StatisticToledoBuffalo
Passing16-3413-20
Pass Yards248172
Rush Yards154331
Total Yards402503
Turnovers10
3rd Down5-139-14
Penalties1-85-35
Possession26:1031:33

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Toledo
passing
Eli Peters
10/17, 163 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Bryant Koback
17 CAR, 99 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
defense
Buffalo
passing
Kyle Vantrease
13/20, 172 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Jaret Patterson
32 CAR, 192 YDS, 4 TD
receiving
Antonio Nunn
5 REC, 89 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 30

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.57

Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the Buff 31

3rd & 5Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jaret Patterson for 3 yds to the Buff 34

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Jackson Baltar punt for 33 yds, downed at the Toled 33

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the Toled 36

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Shakif Seymour run for 6 yds to the Toled 42

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.29

Shakif Seymour run for 4 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Eli Peters pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Eli Peters pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 6 yds to the Buff 48

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Eli Peters pass incomplete to Shakif Seymour

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Thomas Cluckey punt for 44 yds, downed at the Buff 4

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the Buff 5

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.06

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Jackson Baltar punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 27

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Eli Peters pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.67

Bryant Koback run for no gain to the Buff 27

3rd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Bryant Koback run for 7 yds to the Buff 20

4th & 3Field Goal Missed+37 yds

Evan Davis 37 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+44 ydsPPA +3.38

Jaret Patterson run for 44 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.16

Kyle Vantrease run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 37

3rd & 11Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Kevin Marks run for 6 yds to the Toled 31

4th & 5Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.01

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 12 yds to the Toled 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Toled 16

2nd & 7Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.67

Kevin Marks run for 10 yds to the Toled 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Toled 3

2nd & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.48

Kevin Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 4

3rd & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.70

Kevin Marks run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 10

2nd & 8Pass Interception Return-2 ydsPPA +0.06

Eli Peters pass intercepted Matt Otwinowski return for 2 yds to the Toled 24

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+24 ydsPPA +2.68

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jaret Patterson for 24 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.73

Eli Peters pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 8 yds to the Buff 37

2nd & 2Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +0.32

Eli Peters pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 28 yds to the Buff 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Shakif Seymour run for 6 yds to the Buff 3

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the Buff 1

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Eli Peters pass incomplete to Reggie Gilliam

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 29

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 33

3rd & 2Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.60

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for no gain to the Buff 33

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Jackson Baltar punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 41

1st & 10Pass Reception+52 ydsPPA +2.46

Eli Peters pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 52 yds to the Buff 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Penalty+5 yds

[SGUN], PETERS,Eli pass incomplete to McKINLEY-LEWIS (RUSSELL, Devon), PENALTY UB pass interference (RUSSELL, Devon) 5 yards to the UB2, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Bryant Koback run for 2 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Buff 28

2nd & 7Rush+24 ydsPPA +2.69

Kevin Marks run for 24 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.84

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Kevin Marks for 1 yd to the Toled 47

2nd & 9Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.43

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Daniel Lee for 9 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Toled 35

2nd & 7Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.77

Jaret Patterson run for 19 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.10

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 13 yds to the Toled 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Toled 1

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the Toled 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Eli Peters pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 2 yds to the Toled 44

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Eli Peters pass incomplete to Desmond Phillips, broken up by Devon Russell

3rd & 8Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.99

Eli Peters pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 15 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the Buff 37

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.49

Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the Buff 28

2nd & 7Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.60

Eli Peters run for 19 yds to the Buff 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Shakif Seymour run for no gain to the Buff 9

2nd & 9Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Eli Peters pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 5 yds to the Buff 4

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Eli Peters pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis

4th & 4Field Goal Good+21 ydsPPA -1.02

Thomas Cluckey 21 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+24 ydsPPA +2.15

Ron Cook Jr. run for 24 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +1.20

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Daniel Lee for 25 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Toled 23

2nd & 7Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.55

Jaret Patterson run for 15 yds to the Toled 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Toled 5

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Toled 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Shakif Seymour run for 5 yds to the Toled 41

2nd & 5Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.42

Eli Peters pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 12 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.71

Eli Peters pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 14 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-8 ydsPPA -2.18

Eli Peters sacked by Ledarius Mack for a loss of 8 yards to the Buff 42 Eli Peters fumbled, , return for 0 yards

2nd & 19Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.67

Eli Peters pass complete to Drew Rosi for 21 yds to the Buff 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Field Goal Good+38 ydsPPA -1.37

Thomas Cluckey 38 yd FG GOOD

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Shakif Seymour run for 5 yds to the Toled 29

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the Toled 33

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.11

Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+36 ydsPPA +2.31

Bryant Koback run for 36 yds to the Buff 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Buff 24

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell, broken up by Devon Russell

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis, broken up by Aapri Washington

4th & 7Field Goal Good+41 ydsPPA +0.22

Thomas Cluckey 41 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds to the Buff 32

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio Nunn, broken up by Samuel Womack

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.32

Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jaret Patterson for 8 yds to the Buff 44

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.10

Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.60

Ron Cook Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 46

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Jaret Patterson

3rd & 12Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +3.21

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Daniel Lee for 13 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Toled 38

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Zac Lefebvre

3rd & 7Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +1.97

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 28 yds to the Toled 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.61

Jaret Patterson run for 9 yds to the Toled 1

2nd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.64

Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 2

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.54

Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.68

Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Maddox for 12 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell

2nd & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.13

Bryant Koback run for 17 yds to the Buff 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the Buff 13

2nd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.37

Bryant Koback run for 7 yds to the Buff 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.55

Bryant Koback run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 7

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Drew Rosi

4th & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.79

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryant Koback

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the Buff 9

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.16

Kevin Marks run for 1 yd to the Buff 10

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio Nunn

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Jackson Baltar punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 47

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 49

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -1.08

Bryant Koback run for no gain to the Toled 49

3rd & 8Sack-10 ydsPPA -1.41

Carter Bradley sacked by Chibueze Onwuka for a loss of 10 yards to the Toled 39

4th & 18Punt+4 yds

Thomas Cluckey punt for 37 yds , Ron Cook Jr. returns for 4 yds to the Buff 28

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the Buff 30

2nd & 8Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.61

Jaret Patterson run for 10 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.14

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 13 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Toled 43

2nd & 6Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.12

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 23 yds to the Toled 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.57

Jaret Patterson run for 14 yds to the Toled 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.55

Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 7

2nd & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.61

Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell, broken up by Roy Baker

2nd & 10Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +2.83

Carter Bradley pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 31 yds to the Buff 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Desmond Phillips

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.61

Bryant Koback run for no gain to the Buff 25

3rd & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.30

Carter Bradley sacked by Taylor Riggins for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 27

4th & 12Penalty+5 yds

[SGUN], BRADLEY,Carter pass incomplete to MITCHELL,Bryce, PENALTY UB offside (MACK, Ledarius) 5 yards to the UB22, NO PLAY.

4th & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.95

Carter Bradley pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.51

Kevin Marks run for 1 yd to the Buff 23

2nd & 9Rush+18 ydsPPA +2.13

Kevin Marks run for 18 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Kevin Marks run for 5 yds to the Buff 46

2nd & 5Rush+34 ydsPPA +1.93

Kevin Marks run for 34 yds to the Toled 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

[SGUN], PENALTY UB false start (FUZAK, Jake) 5 yards to the TOLEDO25, NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.74

Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 27

2nd & 17Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds to the Toled 20

3rd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.04

Jaret Patterson run for 11 yds to the Toled 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the Toled 8

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.22

Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds to the Toled 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Kyle Vantrease run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Ronnie Jones run for 2 yds to the Toled 38

2nd & 8Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.03

Carter Bradley sacked by Ledarius Mack for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 36

3rd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +3.21

Carter Bradley pass complete to Terrel Ferrell for 17 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.68

Carter Bradley pass complete to Ronnie Jones for 13 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Carter Bradley pass complete to Ronnie Jones for 7 yds to the Buff 27

2nd & 3Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA -0.10

Carter Bradley pass complete to Drew Rosi for 5 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Devin Maddox

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Devin Maddox, broken up by Devon Russell

3rd & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.69

Carter Bradley run for 17 yds to the Buff 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Ronnie Jones run for 5 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 24

Situational Analysis

Toledo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
50%
2 plays
39%
28 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
75%
4 plays
47%
15 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
67%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
50%
8 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
33%
3 plays

Buffalo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
0%
2 plays
38%
29 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
20%
5 plays
40%
5 plays
69%
13 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
83%
6 plays
50%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play