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← Back to GamesSep 28, 2019Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Miami (OH) by 0.5

Home Win Probability

Miami (OH) 53%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Sep 28, 2019

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
BuffaloBuffalo
770620
Miami (OH)Miami (OH)
01321034

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-73-710-1413-1427-1434-20
Miami (OH)Buffalo

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20BUFM(BUFM(BUFM(BUFM(BUFM(BUFM(BUFM(BUFM(BUFM(BUFBUFM(BUFM(BUFM(BUFM(BUFM(BUFPUNT518ydDOWNS927ydTD361ydPUNT36ydPUNT62ydFG814ydPUNT32ydPUNT39ydTD288ydPUNT536ydPUNT32ydTD1046ydTO411ydPUNT3-10ydTO3-2ydFG40ydEND1-2ydPUNT417ydTD34ydPUNT31ydTD739ydDOWNS942ydTD467ydTD575ydPUNT54ydDOWNS1464ydPUNT627ydTO43ydDOWNS4-14ydEND14yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Buffalo and Miami (OH)
StatisticBuffaloMiami (OH)
Passing7-208-18
Pass Yards89120
Rush Yards309145
Total Yards398265
Turnovers40
3rd Down5-145-19
Penalties10-1032-20
Possession29:2930:31

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Buffalo
passing
Matt Myers
4/16, 59 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Jaret Patterson
22 CAR, 183 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Antonio Nunn
2 REC, 30 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Miami (OH)
passing
Brett Gabbert
8/17, 120 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Jaylon Bester
24 CAR, 107 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
James Maye
3 REC, 83 YDS
defense
Myles Reid
0.5 TFL

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Buff 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.62

Matt Myers pass complete to Jaret Patterson for 12 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.32

Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 39

2nd & 11Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 43

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.62

Matt Myers pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt+20 yds

Kyle Vantrease punt for 43 yds , Maurice Thomas returns for 20 yds to the MiaOh 34

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jaylon Bester run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 39

2nd & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.22

Jaylon Bester run for 9 yds to the MiaOh 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

Jaylon Bester run for no gain to the MiaOh 48

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Maurice Thomas run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.51

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 7 yds to the Buff 43

4th & 1Penalty+5 yds

BUFFALO Penalty, illegal participation (5 Yards) to the Buff 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Davion Johnson run for 4 yds to the Buff 34

2nd & 6Penalty-10 yds

MIAMI OH Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Buff 44

2nd & 16Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Davion Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 41

3rd & 13Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Jaylon Bester run for 6 yds to the Buff 35

4th & 7Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.75

Brett Gabbert sacked by Malcolm Koonce for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 39

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.44

Matt Myers pass complete to Carlton Todd for 17 yds to the MiaOh 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+24 ydsPPA +0.79

Matt Myers run for 24 yds to the MiaOh 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +2.62

Matt Myers pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 20 yds for a TD, (Jackson Baltar KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Jaylon Bester run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 29

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

3rd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Jaylon Bester run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 33

4th & 4Punt+13 yds

Kyle Kramer punt for 48 yds , Ron Cook Jr. returns for 13 yds to the Buff 32

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Kevin Marks run for 5 yds to the Buff 37

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Matt Myers run for 2 yds to the Buff 39

3rd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.47

Matt Myers run for 3 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Buff 32

1st & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.43

Matt Myers pass incomplete

2nd & 20Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.33

Matt Myers sacked by Bart Baratti for a loss of 7 yards to the Buff 25

3rd & 27Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.06

Jaret Patterson run for 9 yds to the Buff 34

4th & 18Punt+22 yds

Kyle Vantrease punt for 37 yds , Maurice Thomas returns for 22 yds to the Buff 49

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Jack Sorenson pass incomplete to Jalen Walker

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Tyre Shelton run for 3 yds to the Buff 46

3rd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Brett Gabbert run for 6 yds to the Buff 40

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.90

Davion Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.75

Davion Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 37

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Jaylon Bester run for 3 yds to the Buff 34

3rd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.24

Jaylon Bester run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 35

4th & 8Field Goal Good+53 ydsPPA +1.37

Sam Sloman 53 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the Buff 27

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Matt Myers pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Matt Myers pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Kyle Vantrease punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaOh 45

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Tyre Shelton run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Tyre Shelton run for 4 yds to the Buff 46

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.20

Tyre Shelton run for no gain to the Buff 46

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Kyle Kramer punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the Buff 12

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds to the Buff 18

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+82 ydsPPA +6.51

Jaret Patterson run for 82 yds for a TD, (Jackson Baltar KICK)

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.61

Maurice Thomas run for 11 yds to the MiaOh 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.24

Brett Gabbert pass complete to James Maye for 25 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.10

Maurice Thomas run for no gain to the Buff 49

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jalen Walker

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.74

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Kyle Kramer punt for 49 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the Buff 22

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Matt Myers pass incomplete to Zac Lefebvre

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.17

Matt Myers pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt+24 yds

Kyle Vantrease punt for 39 yds, downed at the MIAMIOH 39 BUFFALO Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the Buff 46

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Brett Gabbert pass complete to James Maye for 6 yds to the Buff 40

3rd & 4Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.39

Jaylon Bester run for 8 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Jaylon Bester run for 3 yds to the Buff 29

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Jaylon Bester run for 4 yds to the Buff 25

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.74

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

4th & 3Penalty+13 yds

BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (Ronald McGee) to the Buff 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.36

Jaylon Bester run for 9 yds to the Buff 3

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.53

Jaylon Bester run for 2 yds to the Buff 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Brett Gabbert run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sam Sloman KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the Buff 29

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the Buff 34

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.95

Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -1.85

Matt Myers pass intercepted Mike Brown return for no gain to the Buff 47

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Maurice Thomas, broken up by Devon Russell

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush-10 ydsPPA -1.51

Brett Gabbert run for a loss of 10 yards to the MiaOh 43

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Kyle Kramer punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 5

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Kevin Marks run for 1 yd to the Buff 6

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the Buff 10

3rd & 5Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-3 ydsPPA +0.17

Matt Myers run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 3 Matt Myers fumbled, forced by Ryan McWood, recovered by MiaOh Ryan McWood

1st & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Davion Johnson run for 1 yd to the Buff 2

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

Davion Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 2

3rd & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.37

Davion Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 3

4th & 3Field Goal Good+21 ydsPPA -1.08

Sam Sloman 21 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 23

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.71

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Dominique Robinson for 11 yds to the MiaOh 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Tyre Shelton run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 31

2nd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jaylon Bester for 5 yds to the MiaOh 36

3rd & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.71

Jaylon Bester run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 35

4th & 4Punt+7 yds

Kyle Kramer punt for 54 yds , Ron Cook Jr. returns for 7 yds to the Buff 18 Ron Cook Jr. fumbled, forced by Myles Reid, recovered by Buff

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 22

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.47

Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the Buff 22

3rd & 6Interception Return Touchdown-25 ydsPPA -6.96

Matt Myers pass intercepted for a TD Mike Brown return for 25 yds for a TD, (Sam Sloman KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Buff 28

2nd & 7Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.70

Kevin Marks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 26

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Matt Myers pass incomplete to Kevin Marks

4th & 9Punt+26 yds

Kyle Vantrease punt for 39 yds , Maurice Thomas returns for 26 yds to the Buff 39

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Jaylon Bester run for 3 yds to the Buff 36

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Jaylon Bester run for 4 yds to the Buff 32

3rd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.72

Jaylon Bester run for 3 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.35

Brett Gabbert run for 7 yds to the Buff 22

2nd & 3Penalty+5 yds

BUFFALO Penalty, (5 Yards) to the Buff 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Davion Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 14

2nd & 7Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Davion Johnson for 1 yd to the Buff 13

3rd & 6Passing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.96

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 13 yds for a TD, (Sam Sloman KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Matt Myers pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 10 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds to the Buff 41

2nd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.84

Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 48

2nd & 6Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.29

Jaret Patterson run for 16 yds to the MiaOh 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Matt Myers pass incomplete to Carlton Todd, broken up by Zedrick Raymond

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.03

Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 33

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Matt Myers pass incomplete

4th & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.47

Matt Myers pass incomplete to Antonio Nunn

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Brett Gabbert run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 39

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.67

Maurice Thomas run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+52 ydsPPA +2.68

Brett Gabbert pass complete to James Maye for 52 yds to the Buff 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Jaylon Bester run for 4 yds for a TD, (Sam Sloman KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Buff 28

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Buff 31

3rd & 4Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.86

Kyle Vantrease run for 9 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.62

Kevin Marks run for 21 yds to the MiaOh 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+39 ydsPPA +3.14

Kevin Marks run for 39 yds for a TD, (Jackson Baltar PAT BLOCKED)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Tyre Shelton run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 35

2nd & 7Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.53

Jaylon Bester run for 9 yds to the MiaOh 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jalen Walker, broken up by Tyrone Hill

2nd & 10Penalty-10 yds

MIAMI OH Penalty, Offensive holding (Danny Godlevske) to the MiaOh 34

2nd & 20Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Jaylon Bester run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 38

3rd & 16Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.26

Brett Gabbert run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 36

4th & 18Punt+51 yds

Kyle Kramer punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the MIAMIOH 18 BUFFALO Penalty, IF (5 Yards) to the Buff 23

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the Buff 25

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Kevin Marks run for 5 yds to the Buff 30

3rd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.14

Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.06

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 11 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the Buff 48

2nd & 6Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.34

Jaret Patterson run for 12 yds to the MiaOh 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.40

Jaret Patterson run for 11 yds to the MiaOh 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.35

Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 22

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 20

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.18

Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 14

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 13

3rd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.44

Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the MiaOh 13

4th & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.60

Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio Nunn

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.64

Jaylon Bester run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 21

2nd & 2Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.94

Jaylon Bester run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 19

3rd & 4Rush+20 ydsPPA +2.14

Jaylon Bester run for 20 yds to the MiaOh 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.30

Tyre Shelton run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 38

2nd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.54

Jaylon Bester run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 39

3rd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Davion Johnson run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 40

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Kyle Kramer punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the Buff 8

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.41

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 11 yds to the Buff 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.78

Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 8 yds to the Buff 27

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Kyle Vantrease run for 6 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive pass interference (-15 Yards) to the Buff 18

1st & 25Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.16

Kyle Vantrease sacked by Lonnie Phelps for a loss of 6 yards to the Buff 11 Kyle Vantrease fumbled, recovered by MiaOh Josh Maize , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.54

TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 15

2nd & 14Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.82

TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 18

3rd & 17Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.30

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 20

4th & 19Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.82

TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 25

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Theo Anderson run for 4 yds to the Buff 29

Situational Analysis

Buffalo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
45%
31 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
71%
7 plays
22%
9 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
100%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
0%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play
0%
1 play

Miami (OH)

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play
35%
26 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
31%
13 plays
0%
4 plays
3rd
33%
6 plays
100%
3 plays
29%
7 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
50%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play