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← Back to GamesDec 1, 2019Week 14
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

North Carolina by 4.3

Home Win Probability

NC State 38%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Dec 1, 2019

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
North CarolinaNorth Carolina
0628741
NC StateNC State
370010

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428423-03-33-610-610-2010-2710-3410-41
NC StateNorth Carolina

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NCNSNCNSNCNSNCNSNCNSNCNSNCNSNCNSNCNSNCNSNCNSNCNSNCNSNCPUNT646ydFG1080ydPUNT33ydPUNT630ydPUNT426ydPUNT3-6ydFG847ydPUNT3-2ydFG1080ydPUNT32ydTO211ydTD550ydMISS737ydPUNT36ydPUNT30ydTO33ydTD247ydPUNT34ydTD1171ydTO218ydTD643ydTO322ydTD258ydDOWNS870ydTD687ydTO547ydEND963yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing North Carolina and NC State
StatisticNorth CarolinaNC State
Passing25-3513-30
Pass Yards440157
Rush Yards180132
Total Yards620289
Turnovers14
3rd Down7-142-12
Penalties10-908-65
Possession36:2423:36

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

North Carolina
passing
Sam Howell
23/33, 401 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Michael Carter
16 CAR, 97 YDS
receiving
Dyami Brown
6 REC, 150 YDS, 1 TD
defense
NC State
passing
Devin Leary
7/20, 98 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Jordan Houston
8 CAR, 62 YDS
receiving
Tabari Hines
7 REC, 89 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the NCaro 20

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.46

Javonte Williams run for 1 yd to the NCaro 21

3rd & 3Penalty-5 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 16

3rd & 8Pass Reception+45 ydsPPA +4.06

Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 45 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the NCSt 37

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Antonio Williams run for 6 yds to the NCSt 31

3rd & 2Fumble Recovery (Own)-3 ydsPPA -1.59

Antonio Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 40 Antonio Williams fumbled, forced by Isaiah Moore, recovered by NCaro Sam Howell

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Ben Kiernan punt for 33 yds, downed at the NCSt 7

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.31

Zonovan Knight run for no gain to the NCSt 7

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.23

Zonovan Knight run for 8 yds to the NCSt 15

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.51

Zonovan Knight run for 4 yds to the NCSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.20

Devin Leary pass complete to Zonovan Knight for 16 yds to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Devin Leary pass complete to Tabari Hines for 8 yds to the NCSt 43

2nd & 2Rush+41 ydsPPA +1.64

Jordan Houston run for 41 yds to the NCaro 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.56

Jordan Houston run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 19

2nd & 13Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.80

Zonovan Knight run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 21

3rd & 15Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.46

Devin Leary pass complete to Tabari Hines for 8 yds to the NCaro 13

4th & 7Field Goal Good+30 ydsPPA -0.53

Christopher Dunn 30 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Sam Howell run for 4 yds to the NCaro 45

2nd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.30

Javonte Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 44

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Sam Howell pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Ben Kiernan punt for 43 yds

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Zonovan Knight run for 5 yds to the NCSt 18

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Zonovan Knight run for 4 yds to the NCSt 22

3rd & 1Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.83

Zonovan Knight run for 17 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Zonovan Knight run for 7 yds to the NCSt 46

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.76

Jordan Houston run for 2 yds to the NCSt 48

3rd & 1Penalty-5 yds

NC STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 43

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Devin Leary pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Trenton Gill punt for 49 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.33

Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 24 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.53

Sam Howell sacked by Alim McNeill for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 26

2nd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Sam Howell pass incomplete

3rd & 16Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.12

Sam Howell run for 8 yds to the NCaro 34

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Ben Kiernan punt for 45 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Devin Leary pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.34

Jordan Houston run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCSt 19

3rd & 12Penalty-5 yds

NC STATE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 14

3rd & 17Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.03

Trent Pennix run for 1 yd to the NCSt 15

4th & 16Punt-3 yds

Trenton Gill punt for 47 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 12 NC STATE Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Sam Howell pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the NCSt 49

3rd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 6 yds to the NCSt 43

4th & 3Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +3.00

Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 33 yds to the NCSt 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the NCSt 4

2nd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.43

Michael Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 5

3rd & 5Penalty-5 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NCSt 10

3rd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.16

Sam Howell run for 7 yds to the NCSt 3

4th & 3Field Goal Good+20 ydsPPA -1.08

Noah Ruggles 20 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-3 ydsPPA -0.96

Devin Leary run for a loss of 3 yards to the NCSt 18 Devin Leary fumbled, recovered by NCSt Devin Leary

2nd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.11

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Tabari Hines, broken up by Don Chapman

3rd & 17Penalty+5 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the NCSt 23

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.11

Devin Leary pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt+72 yds

Trenton Gill punt for 68 yds, downed at the NCSTATE 9 NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (4 Yards) to the NCaro 5

1st & 10Pass Reception+57 ydsPPA +3.82

Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 57 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Sam Howell pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.61

Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 8 yds to the NCSt 30

3rd & 2Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.56

Sam Howell pass complete to Rontavius Groves for 5 yds to the NCSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Javonte Williams run for 5 yds to the NCSt 20

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Sam Howell pass incomplete

3rd & 5Penalty+5 yds

NC STATE Penalty, Defensive offside (Ibrahim Kante) to the NCSt 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dazz Newsome

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Sam Howell run for 5 yds to the NCSt 10

3rd & 5Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.98

Sam Howell sacked by Joseph Boletepeli for a loss of 5 yards to the NCSt 15

4th & 10Field Goal Good+32 ydsPPA -0.18

Noah Ruggles 32 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the NCSt 27

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Devin Leary pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Devin Leary pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Trenton Gill punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 33

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.06

Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 11 yds to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return-16 ydsPPA -2.63

Sam Howell pass intercepted Payton Wilson return for 16 yds to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the NCaro 46

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Devin Leary pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Devin Leary pass complete to Tabari Hines for 5 yds to the NCaro 41

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.91

Devin Leary run for 2 yds to the NCaro 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+39 ydsPPA +3.14

Devin Leary pass complete to Tabari Hines for 39 yds for a TD (Christopher Dunn KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Sam Howell pass complete to Michael Carter for 9 yds to the NCaro 34

2nd & 1Sack-9 ydsPPA -2.30

Sam Howell sacked by Alim McNeill for a loss of 9 yards to the NCaro 25

3rd & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +2.76

Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the NCaro 29 for a 1ST down NC STATE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Payton Wilson) to the NCaro 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Sam Howell pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.83

Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 8 yds to the NCSt 48

3rd & 2Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.60

Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 10 yds to the NCSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Missed Field Goal Return+43 yds

Noah Ruggles 55 yd FG MISSED , Thayer Thomas return for 43 yds to the NCSt 43

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive holding (Jahlil Taylor) to the NCSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Jordan Houston run for 7 yds to the NCSt 42

2nd & 3Penalty-10 yds

NC STATE Penalty, Offensive holding (Joshua Fedd-Jackson) to the NCSt 32

2nd & 13Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Jordan Houston run for 4 yds to the NCSt 36 NC STATE Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declined

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin Carter

4th & 9Penalty-5 yds

NC STATE Penalty, false start (Jaylon Scott) to the NCSt 31

4th & 14Punt+5 yds

Trenton Gill punt for 44 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for 5 yds to the NCaro 30

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NCaro 33

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.46

Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 35

3rd & 5Rush-5 ydsPPA -0.73

Michael Carter run for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 30

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Ben Kiernan punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NCSt 31

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Devin Carter, broken up by Storm Duck

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Zonovan Knight run for 3 yds to the NCSt 34

3rd & 7Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.29

Devin Leary pass intercepted Don Chapman return for no gain to the NCSt 47

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +0.89

Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 21 yds to the NCSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+26 ydsPPA +2.72

Javonte Williams run for 26 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Jordan Houston

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Zonovan Knight run for 5 yds to the NCSt 30

3rd & 5Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.42

Devin Leary sacked by Chazz Surratt for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 29

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Trenton Gill punt for 42 yds, downed at the NCaro 29

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.66

Javonte Williams run for 7 yds to the NCaro 36

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.36

Javonte Williams run for 4 yds to the NCaro 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Javonte Williams run for 8 yds to the NCaro 48

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.05

Michael Carter run for 4 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.68

Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 12 yds to the NCSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.77

Michael Carter run for 9 yds to the NCSt 27

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Beau Corrales

3rd & 1Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 6 yds to the NCSt 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Sam Howell pass incomplete to Dyami Brown, broken up by Malik Dunlap

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.50

Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 10 yds to the NCSt 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.52

Sam Howell pass complete to Javonte Williams for 11 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Storm Duck) to the NCSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Devin Leary pass incomplete to Emeka Emezie

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+2 ydsPPA -1.12

Zonovan Knight run for 2 yds to the NCSt 43 Zonovan Knight fumbled, forced by Jeremiah Gemmel, recovered by NCaro Jeremiah Gemmel

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Michael Carter run for 6 yds to the NCSt 37

2nd & 4Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.32

Michael Carter run for 10 yds to the NCSt 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Michael Carter run for 3 yds to the NCSt 24

2nd & 7Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.35

Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 11 yds to the NCSt 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 7 yds to the NCSt 6

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.24

Javonte Williams run for 6 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.77

Devin Leary pass complete to Tabari Hines for 19 yds to the NCSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Devin Leary pass complete to Tabari Hines for 3 yds to the NCaro 49

2nd & 7Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -2.59

Devin Leary pass intercepted Trey Morrison return for no gain to the NCaro 42

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 6 yds to the NCaro 48

2nd & 4Passing Touchdown+52 ydsPPA +4.17

Sam Howell pass complete to Dyami Brown for 52 yds for a TD NC STATE Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined (Noah Ruggles KICK)

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive offside (Jason Strowbridge) to the NCSt 22

1st & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA -0.40

Bailey Hockman pass complete to Devin Carter for 7 yds to the NCSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.34

Jordan Houston run for 9 yds to the NCSt 38

2nd & 1Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +1.57

Bailey Hockman pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 30 yds to the NCaro 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.25

Bailey Hockman run for 12 yds to the NCaro 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jeremiah Gemmel) to the NCaro 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.79

Bailey Hockman pass complete to Jordan Houston for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 8

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

NC STATE Penalty, false start (Ikem Ekwonu) to the NCaro 13

2nd & 13Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.35

Bailey Hockman pass complete to Jordan Houston for no gain to the NCaro 13

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Thayer Thomas

4th & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.07

Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Emeka Emezie

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Michael Carter run for 2 yds to the NCaro 15

2nd & 8Rush+38 ydsPPA +3.34

Michael Carter run for 38 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +1.04

Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 31 yds to the NCSt 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.62

Michael Carter run for 9 yds to the NCSt 7

2nd & 1Penalty-11 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (Jake Bargas) to the NCSt 18

2nd & 12Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Sam Howell pass complete to Beau Corrales for 5 yds to the NCSt 13

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +3.01

Sam Howell pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 13 yds for a TD (Noah Ruggles KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Bailey Hockman pass complete to Tabari Hines for 7 yds to the NCSt 32

2nd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.62

Bailey Hockman run for 7 yds to the NCSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.50

Bailey Hockman pass complete to Emeka Emezie for 18 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Trey Morrison) to the NCaro 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Bailey Hockman pass incomplete to Emeka Emezie

2nd & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.72

Bailey Hockman pass intercepted Myles Dorn return for no gain to the NCaro 15

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Josh Henderson run for 6 yds to the NCaro 21

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.48

Josh Henderson run for 1 yd to the NCaro 22

3rd & 3Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +3.24

Vincent Amendola pass complete to Roscoe Johnson for 31 yds to the NCSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Josh Henderson run for 6 yds to the NCSt 41

2nd & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.39

Vincent Amendola pass complete to Roscoe Johnson for 8 yds to the NCSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)0 ydsPPA -0.64

TEAM run for no gain to the NCSt 37 TEAM fumbled, recovered by NCaro Josh Henderson

2nd & 14Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Josh Henderson run for 5 yds to the NCSt 32

3rd & 9Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.56

Josh Henderson run for 11 yds to the NCSt 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.48

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCSt 22

Situational Analysis

North Carolina

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
60%
35 plays
2nd
60%
5 plays
38%
8 plays
78%
9 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
80%
5 plays
0%
2 plays
86%
7 plays
100%
1 play
4th
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play

NC State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
50%
22 plays
2nd
75%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
25%
8 plays
0%
4 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
0%
1 play