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← Back to GamesNov 9, 2019Week 11

House Prediction

Model Margin

Ole Miss by 17

Home Win Probability

Ole Miss 85%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Nov 9, 2019

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
New Mexico StateNew Mexico State
03003
Ole MissOle Miss
101471041

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428423-010-017-324-331-338-341-3
Ole MissNew Mexico State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20OMNMSOMNMSOMNMSOMNMSOMNMSNMSOMNMSOMNMSOMNMSOMNMSOMFG1046ydPUNT832ydTD977ydPUNT721ydTO659ydPUNT513ydTD280ydFG1665ydTD1065ydEND28ydPUNT618ydMISS1144ydPUNT3-2ydTD563ydPUNT732ydTD898ydPUNT36ydFG1452ydPUNT35ydEND837yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing New Mexico State and Ole Miss
StatisticNew Mexico StateOle Miss
Passing25-3513-19
Pass Yards127159
Rush Yards66447
Total Yards193606
Turnovers01
3rd Down4-1410-16
Penalties5-352-20
Possession25:2334:37

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

New Mexico State
passing
Josh Adkins
25/35, 127 YDS
rushing
Jason Huntley
7 CAR, 45 YDS
receiving
Tony Nicholson
6 REC, 37 YDS
defense
Ole Miss
passing
John Rhys Plumlee
11/17, 124 YDS
rushing
John Rhys Plumlee
12 CAR, 177 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Elijah Moore
3 REC, 37 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.32

John Rhys Plumlee run for 14 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

John Rhys Plumlee run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 45

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Jason Pellerin, broken up by Devin Richardson

4th & 4Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +2.72

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jason Pellerin for 7 yds to the NMxSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.37

Jerrion Ealy run for 12 yds to the NMxSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete, broken up by Shamad Lomax

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.28

Jerrion Ealy run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 19

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Jonathan Mingo

4th & 3Field Goal Good+36 ydsPPA -0.52

Luke Logan 36 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Tony Nicholson run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 31

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Josh Adkins run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 32

3rd & 3Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.81

Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 9 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.32

Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 9 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Jason Huntley run for 3 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Josh Adkins pass complete to Terrell Warner for 4 yds to the Miss 43

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -1.09

Josh Adkins run for no gain to the Miss 43

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Josh Adkins pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt+20 yds

Payton Theisler punt for 25 yds NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Miss 23

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.57

John Rhys Plumlee run for 7 yds to the Miss 30

2nd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Jerrion Ealy run for 7 yds to the Miss 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.40

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 35

2nd & 12Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

John Rhys Plumlee run for 4 yds to the Miss 39

3rd & 8Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +3.35

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Octavious Cooley for 21 yds to the NMxSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.65

Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 39

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Elijah Moore

3rd & 9Rush+9 ydsPPA +2.02

John Rhys Plumlee run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+30 ydsPPA +2.81

Snoop Conner run for 30 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Josh Adkins pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 10 yds to the NMxSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Jason Huntley run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 39

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jason Huntley run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 44

3rd & 1Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA +1.02

Josh Adkins pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 1 yd to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Josh Adkins pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 5Penalty-5 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NMxSt 45

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 3 yds to the NMxSt 48

3rd & 7Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.00

Josh Adkins sacked by Benito Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the NMxSt 46

4th & 9Punt-2 yds

Payton Theisler punt for 38 yds , Elijah Moore returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 14

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +2.10

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for 28 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Jerrion Ealy run for 2 yds to the Miss 44

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the Miss 47

3rd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +2.17

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 8 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.71

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 17 yds to the NMxSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+2 ydsPPA -4.24

Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 27 Snoop Conner fumbled, forced by Devin Richardson, recovered by NMxSt Rashie Hodge Jr.

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.30

Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 9 yds to the NMxSt 36

2nd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Josh Adkins run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Josh Adkins run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 38

2nd & 9Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 2 yds to the NMxSt 40

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Josh Adkins pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Payton Theisler punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 20

1st & 10Rush+75 ydsPPA +4.50

John Rhys Plumlee run for 75 yds to the NMxSt 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Jerrion Ealy run for 5 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 3 yds to the NMxSt 22

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Jason Huntley run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 25

3rd & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.41

Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 8 yds to the NMxSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.03

Josh Adkins run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 41

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.03

Christian Gibson run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.33

Josh Adkins sacked by Willie Hibbler for a loss of 7 yards to the NMxSt 37

2nd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Tony Nicholson

3rd & 17Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +4.14

Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 14 yds to the OLEMISS 49 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, personal foul (Benito Jones) to the Miss 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Josh Adkins pass complete to Tony Nicholson for 5 yds to the Miss 29

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.69

Jason Huntley run for no gain to the Miss 29

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Jason Huntley, broken up by Jalen Julius

4th & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.77

Josh Adkins pass complete to Robert Downs III for 6 yds to the Miss 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Josh Adkins run for 3 yds to the Miss 20

2nd & 7Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.99

Josh Adkins sacked by Josiah Coatney for a loss of 4 yards to the Miss 24

3rd & 11Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.46

Josh Adkins pass complete to Christian Gibson for 8 yds to the Miss 16

4th & 3Field Goal Good+34 ydsPPA -0.67

Dylan Brown 34 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

John Rhys Plumlee run for 3 yds to the Miss 38

2nd & 7Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.55

Dannis Jackson run for 9 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+2 ydsPPA -0.67

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 2 yds Jerrion Ealy fumbled, forced by Rashie Hodge Jr., recovered by Miss Snoop Conner , return to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Penalty+15 yds

John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Jadon Jackson, PENALTY NMSU pass interference (Lomax, Shamad) 15 yards to the NMSU35, 1ST DOWN OM, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Snoop Conner run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 30

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.71

John Rhys Plumlee run for no gain to the NMxSt 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jerrion Ealy for 3 yds to the NMxSt 27

4th & 2Penalty+5 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, Defensive offside (John Graves III) to the NMxSt 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.22

Jerrion Ealy run for 13 yds to the NMxSt 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Jerrion Ealy run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 3

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 2

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.54

John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 3 yds to the NMxSt 26

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Josh Adkins run for 5 yds to the NMxSt 31

0th & 7End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 3 yds to the NMxSt 21

2nd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Josh Adkins pass complete to Izaiah Lottie for 5 yds to the NMxSt 26

3rd & 2Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.95

Josh Adkins pass complete to OJ Clark for 4 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Josh Adkins pass incomplete to OJ Clark

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, false start (Tony Bello) to the NMxSt 25

2nd & 15Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.28

Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 8 yds to the NMxSt 33

3rd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Josh Adkins run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 36

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Payton Theisler punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 25

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

PENALTY OM unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY NMSU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

John Rhys Plumlee run for 2 yds to the Miss 27

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.40

Jerrion Ealy run for 1 yd to the Miss 28

3rd & 7Rush+16 ydsPPA +2.56

Jerrion Ealy run for 16 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Jerrion Ealy run for no gain to the Miss 44

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the Miss 46

3rd & 8Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.84

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 13 yds to the NMxSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.43

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Elijah Moore for 11 yds to the NMxSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.70

Jerrion Ealy run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 31

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.82

John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Jerrion Ealy, broken up by Rashie Hodge Jr.

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

John Rhys Plumlee pass incomplete to Elijah Moore, broken up by Javahn Fergurson

4th & 11Field Goal Missed+48 yds

Luke Logan 48 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Tony Nicholson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Josh Adkins pass complete to Christian Gibson for 2 yds to the NMxSt 33

3rd & 8Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -0.46

Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for a loss of 4 yards to the NMxSt 29

4th & 12Punt+1 yds

Payton Theisler punt for 35 yds , Dontario Drummond returns for 1 yd to the Miss 37

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Snoop Conner run for 2 yds to the Miss 39

2nd & 8Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.16

John Rhys Plumlee pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 15 yds to the NMxSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Snoop Conner run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 39

2nd & 3Rush+21 ydsPPA +0.42

Snoop Conner run for 21 yds to the NMxSt 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+18 ydsPPA +2.59

John Rhys Plumlee run for 18 yds for a TD (Luke Logan KICK)

1st & 10Sack-10 ydsPPA -1.22

Josh Adkins sacked by Quentin Bivens for a loss of 10 yards to the NMxSt 15

2nd & 20Rush+21 ydsPPA +2.15

Jason Huntley run for 21 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Jason Huntley run for 9 yds to the NMxSt 45

2nd & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.22

Josh Adkins run for 9 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Christian Gibson run for 3 yds to the Miss 43

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Christian Gibson

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Josh Adkins pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Josh Adkins punt for 41 yds, downed at the Miss 2

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Snoop Conner run for 6 yds to the Miss 8

2nd & 4Rush+38 ydsPPA +2.62

John Rhys Plumlee run for 38 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.17

Snoop Conner run for 18 yds to the NMxSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.29

Snoop Conner run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Snoop Conner run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 23

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.28

Matt Corral run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 21

3rd & 5Penalty-5 yds

OLE MISS Penalty, false start (Jonathan Mingo) to the NMxSt 26

3rd & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.89

Matt Corral pass complete to Jason Pellerin for 25 yds to the NMxSt 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Snoop Conner run for 1 yd for a TD (Isaac Way KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Izaiah Lottie

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 6 yds to the NMxSt 31

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Josh Adkins pass incomplete to Izaiah Lottie NEW MEXICO ST Penalty, illegal shift ( Yards) declined

4th & 4Punt+15 yds

Payton Theisler punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Miss 37 , Elijah Moore returns for 15 yds to the Miss 37

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Isaiah Woullard run for 3 yds to the Miss 40

2nd & 7Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.20

Isaiah Woullard run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 38

3rd & 9Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.66

Matt Corral pass complete to Jadon Jackson for 10 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.88

Isaiah Woullard run for 8 yds to the NMxSt 44

2nd & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.45

Isaiah Woullard run for a loss of 1 yard to the NMxSt 45

3rd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.43

Isaiah Woullard run for 6 yds to the NMxSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.38

Tylan Knight run for 11 yds to the NMxSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Tylan Knight run for 2 yds to the NMxSt 26

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Tylan Knight run for 3 yds to the NMxSt 23

3rd & 5Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.66

Tylan Knight run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Tylan Knight run for no gain to the NMxSt 16

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Isaiah Woullard run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 12

3rd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Matt Corral run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 11

4th & 5Field Goal Good+28 ydsPPA -0.75

Luke Logan 28 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Josh Adkins pass complete to Jason Huntley for 3 yds to the NMxSt 28

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Josh Adkins run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Josh Adkins pass complete to Robert Downs III for 1 yd to the NMxSt 30

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Payton Theisler punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Elijah Moore at the Miss 34

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Kinkead Dent run for 5 yds to the Miss 39

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.95

Isaiah Woullard run for 6 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.80

Tylan Knight run for 10 yds to the NMxSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Kinkead Dent run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 41

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.66

KeShun Wells run for 7 yds to the NMxSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 4 yds to the NMxSt 30

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.71

D'Vaughn Pennamon run for no gain to the NMxSt 30

3rd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

D'Vaughn Pennamon run for 1 yd to the NMxSt 29

Situational Analysis

New Mexico State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
36%
22 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
25%
4 plays
30%
10 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
20%
5 plays
0%
5 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play
100%
1 play

Ole Miss

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
100%
1 play
53%
38 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
60%
5 plays
33%
12 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
33%
6 plays
100%
6 plays
0%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play
50%
2 plays