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← Back to GamesSep 14, 2019Week 3

House Prediction

Model Margin

LSU by 40.9

Home Win Probability

LSU 98%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Sep 14, 2019

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Northwestern State
770014
LSULSU
321271465

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014284256703-03-710-717-724-1437-1451-1458-1465-14
LSUNorthwestern State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NSLSUNSLSUNSLSUNSLSUNSLSUNSLSULSUNSLSUNSLSUNSLSUNSLSUNSNSLSUNSDOWNS1140ydFG1057ydTD875ydTD869ydPUNT33ydTD777ydTD675ydTD670ydPUNT423ydTO10ydMISS40ydEND44ydTD474ydPUNT35ydTD733ydPUNT34ydTD478ydPUNT36ydTD756ydDOWNS1155ydPUNT430ydTD32ydPUNT30ydTD762ydEND31yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Northwestern State and LSU
StatisticNorthwestern StateLSU
Passing23-4129-33
Pass Yards232488
Rush Yards46122
Total Yards278610
Turnovers01
3rd Down6-175-7
Penalties3-344-55
Possession33:3826:22

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Northwestern State
passing
Shelton Eppler
21/38, 225 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Stadford Anderson
9 CAR, 30 YDS
receiving
David Fitzwater
3 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
defense
LSU
passing
Joe Burrow
21/24, 373 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
13 CAR, 50 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Justin Jefferson
5 REC, 124 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Jared West run for 4 yds to the NWSt 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.14

Shelton Eppler pass complete to Levar Gumms for 8 yds to the NWSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Shelton Eppler pass incomplete to Quan Shorts

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Shelton Eppler pass complete to Gavin Landry for 4 yds to the NWSt 41

3rd & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.47

Shelton Eppler pass complete to Quan Shorts for 10 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Jared West run for 5 yds to the LSU 44

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.57

Jared West run for 6 yds to the LSU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Jared West run for 1 yd to the LSU 37

2nd & 9Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.52

Shelton Eppler pass complete to Quan Shorts for 2 yds to the LSU 35

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Shelton Eppler pass incomplete to Quan Shorts

4th & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.75

Shelton Eppler pass incomplete to Quan Shorts

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 8 yds to the LSU 43

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.07

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Joe Burrow run for 4 yds to the LSU 49

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 2 yds to the NWSt 49

3rd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.93

Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 9 yds to the NWSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the NWSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.15

Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 11 yds to the NWSt 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.38

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for a loss of 1 yard to the NWSt 15

2nd & 11Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.11

Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 6 yds to the NWSt 9

3rd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the NWSt 8

4th & 4Field Goal Good+26 ydsPPA -0.91

Cade York 26 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Jared West run for 2 yds to the NWSt 27

2nd & 8Penalty-14 yds

NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-14 Yards) to the NWSt 13

2nd & 22Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.21

Shelton Eppler pass complete to Jared West for 12 yds to the NWSt 25

3rd & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +3.51

Shelton Eppler pass complete to Akile Davis for 28 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.52

Jared West run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 49

2nd & 12Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Shelton Eppler pass complete to Akile Davis for 4 yds to the LSU 45

3rd & 8Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.36

Shelton Eppler pass complete to Quan Shorts for 11 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Stadford Anderson run for 2 yds to the LSU 32

2nd & 8Penalty+15 yds

LSU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the LSU 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +2.58

Shelton Eppler pass complete to Quan Shorts for 17 yds for a TD, (Scotty Roblow KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.92

Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 21 yds to the NWSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds to the NWSt 45

2nd & 7Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.24

Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 15 yds to the NWSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Terrace Marshall Jr.

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.79

Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 13 yds to the NWSt 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 8 yds to the NWSt 9

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.44

Joe Burrow run for 5 yds to the NWSt 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Shelton Eppler pass complete to Myles Ward for 3 yds to the NWSt 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Shelton Eppler pass incomplete to Akile Davis

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Shelton Eppler pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt+6 yds

Parker Pastorello punt for 45 yds , Derek Stingley Jr. returns for 6 yds to the LSU 34 LSU Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the LSU 23

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.84

Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 21 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +1.56

Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 26 yds to the NWSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.69

Joe Burrow pass complete to Derrick Dillon for 9 yds to the NWSt 21

2nd & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA -0.40

Lanard Fournette run for 9 yds to the NWSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Lanard Fournette run for 4 yds to the NWSt 8

2nd & 6Rush-6 ydsPPA -0.77

Lanard Fournette run for a loss of 6 yards to the NWSt 14

3rd & 12Passing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +3.31

Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 14 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

LSU Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Breiden Fehoko) to the NWSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Shelton Eppler pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Shelton Eppler pass complete to Tanner Ash for 6 yds to the NWSt 46

3rd & 4Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.75

Shelton Eppler pass complete to Gavin Landry for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.94

Shelton Eppler pass complete to Corey Smallwood for 17 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Stadford Anderson run for 7 yds to the LSU 26

2nd & 3Passing Touchdown+26 ydsPPA +2.53

Shelton Eppler pass complete to David Fitzwater for 26 yds for a TD, (Scotty Roblow KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +2.40

Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 28 yds to the NWSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.63

Joe Burrow pass complete to Stephen Sullivan for 19 yds to the NWSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Joe Burrow pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 7 yds to the NWSt 16

2nd & 3Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.88

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 13 yds to the NWSt 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.75

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for no gain to the NWSt 3

2nd & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +2.21

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.32

Shelton Eppler pass complete to David Fitzwater for 15 yds to the NWSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Stadford Anderson run for 3 yds to the NWSt 43

2nd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Shelton Eppler pass complete to Quan Shorts for 5 yds to the NWSt 48

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Shelton Eppler pass incomplete to David Fitzwater

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Parker Pastorello punt for 37 yds, downed at the LSU 15

1st & 10Pass Interception Return-8 ydsPPA -0.38

Joe Burrow pass intercepted Dylan Wilson return for 8 yds to the LSU 17

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Shelton Eppler pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Shelton Eppler pass incomplete to Levar Gumms

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Shelton Eppler pass incomplete to Quan Shorts

4th & 10Field Goal Missed+35 yds

Scotty Roblow 35 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.11

Joe Burrow run for 9 yds to the LSU 29

2nd & 1Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.00

Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 16 yds to the LSU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -2.11

Joe Burrow sacked by O'Shea Jackson for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 40

2nd & 15Rush-16 ydsPPA -0.93

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 39 LSU Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the LSU 24

0th & 15End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+48 ydsPPA +3.29

Joe Burrow pass complete to Justin Jefferson for 48 yds to the NWSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.18

Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 13 yds to the NWSt 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 8 yds to the NWSt 5

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.09

Joe Burrow run for 5 yds for a TD, (Cade York PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Shelton Eppler pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Shelton Eppler pass complete to Akile Davis for 5 yds to the NWSt 21

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.23

Shelton Eppler pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt+26 yds

Parker Pastorello punt for 38 yds , Derek Stingley Jr. returns for 26 yds to the NWSt 33

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Joe Burrow pass incomplete to Terrace Marshall Jr.

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.66

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 9 yds to the NWSt 24

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.26

Joe Burrow run for 4 yds to the NWSt 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.46

Joe Burrow run for 8 yds to the NWSt 12

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 1 yd to the NWSt 11

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.52

Clyde Edwards-Helaire run for 5 yds to the NWSt 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.05

Joe Burrow pass complete to Terrace Marshall Jr. for 6 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jared West run for no gain to the NWSt 25

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Shelton Eppler pass incomplete to Levar Gumms

3rd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Shelton Eppler run for 4 yds to the NWSt 29

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Parker Pastorello punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Derek Stingley Jr. at the LSU 22

1st & 10Pass Reception+65 ydsPPA +3.73

Joe Burrow pass complete to Jontre Kirklin for 65 yds to the NWSt 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.37

John Emery Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the NWSt 14

2nd & 11Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.43

Joe Burrow pass complete to Jontre Kirklin for 10 yds to the NWSt 4

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.48

John Emery Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Stadford Anderson run for 5 yds to the NWSt 30

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.63

Stadford Anderson run for 1 yd to the NWSt 31

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Shelton Eppler pass incomplete to Akile Davis

4th & 4Punt+22 yds

Parker Pastorello punt for 46 yds , Derek Stingley Jr. returns for 22 yds to the LSU 45

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.23

Myles Brennan pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 9 yds to the NWSt 46

2nd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA -0.14

Tyrion Davis-Price run for 6 yds to the NWSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Tyrion Davis-Price run for 5 yds to the NWSt 35

2nd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.34

Myles Brennan pass complete to Tory Carter for 7 yds to the NWSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.25

Myles Brennan pass complete to Tyrion Davis-Price for 18 yds to the NWSt 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 11Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.69

Tyrion Davis-Price run for 10 yds to the NWSt 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Tyrion Davis-Price run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cade York KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Stadford Anderson run for no gain to the NWSt 25

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NWSt 20

2nd & 15Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.85

Shelton Eppler pass complete to Quan Shorts for 13 yds to the NWSt 33

3rd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.44

Stadford Anderson run for 6 yds to the NWSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +1.92

Shelton Eppler pass complete to David Fitzwater for 27 yds to the LSU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Shelton Eppler pass complete to Quan Shorts for 5 yds to the LSU 29

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.52

Stadford Anderson run for 1 yd to the LSU 28

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.72

Stadford Anderson run for 5 yds to the LSU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Shelton Eppler pass incomplete to Akile Davis

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Shelton Eppler pass complete to Quan Shorts for 3 yds to the LSU 20

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Shelton Eppler pass incomplete

4th & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.10

Shelton Eppler pass incomplete to Levar Gumms

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +2.38

Myles Brennan pass complete to Devonta Lee for 28 yds to the LSU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -2.17

John Emery Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 43

2nd & 15Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Myles Brennan pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 7 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Myles Brennan pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Zach Von Rosenberg punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NWSt 14

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.64

Bryce Rivers sacked by Cameron Lewis and Travez Moore for a loss of 6 yards to the NWSt 8

2nd & 16Rush0 ydsPPA -0.06

Trevor Morgan run for no gain to the NWSt 8

3rd & 16Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.04

Bryce Rivers pass complete to Trevor Morgan for 8 yds to the NWSt 16

4th & 8Punt+54 yds

Parker Pastorello punt for 38 yds , Trey Palmer returns for 54 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Bryce Rivers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Trevor Morgan run for 1 yd to the NWSt 26

3rd & 9Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.21

Bryce Rivers pass complete to Trevor Morgan for a loss of 1 yard to the NWSt 25

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Parker Pastorello punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LSU 38

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.37

Myles Brennan pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 9 yds to the LSU 47

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Tyrion Davis-Price run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.09

Myles Brennan run for 9 yds to the NWSt 41

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.39

Tyrion Davis-Price run for 2 yds to the NWSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Myles Brennan pass complete to Tyrion Davis-Price for 2 yds to the NWSt 37

2nd & 8Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +2.36

Myles Brennan pass complete to Jaray Jenkins for 35 yds to the NWSt 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Tyrion Davis-Price run for 2 yds for a TD, (Cade York KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

JaQuan Jackson run for 2 yds to the NWSt 27

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.40

Kaleb Fletcher run for 1 yd to the NWSt 28

3rd & 7Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.33

Kaleb Fletcher run for a loss of 2 yards to the NWSt 26

Situational Analysis

Northwestern State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
32%
25 plays
2nd
100%
1 play
50%
4 plays
27%
11 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
60%
5 plays
22%
9 plays
100%
1 play
4th
0%
2 plays

LSU

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
100%
2 plays
67%
33 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
50%
12 plays
33%
3 plays
100%
4 plays
75%
4 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
100%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play