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← Back to GamesSep 1, 2018Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Stony Brook by 0.6

Home Win Probability

Air Force 45%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Sep 1, 2018

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Stony Brook
00000
Air ForceAir Force
141001438

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-014-017-024-031-038-0
Air ForceStony Brook

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20SBAFSBSBAFSBAFSBAFSBAFSBAFSBAFAFSBAFSBAFSBAFSBAFSBPUNT34ydTD974ydTD21ydPUNT39ydDOWNS4-12ydDOWNS617ydPUNT34ydMISS4-12ydFG942ydPUNT3-7ydTD1175ydPUNT3-6ydTO747ydPUNT35ydMISS511ydPUNT3-8ydTO2-4ydTO38ydPUNT928ydTD2088ydPUNT35ydPUNT35ydDOWNS49ydTD1044ydEND624yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Stony Brook and Air Force
StatisticStony BrookAir Force
Passing7-202-8
Pass Yards4529
Rush Yards30333
Total Yards75362
Turnovers22
3rd Down3-148-20
Penalties8-633-30
Possession19:3340:27

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Stony Brook
passing
Joe Carbone
4/11, 18 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Kameron Pickett
7 CAR, 19 YDS
receiving
Donald Liotine
1 REC, 6 YDS
defense
Air Force
passing
Arion Worthman
2/8, 29 YDS
rushing
Arion Worthman
11 CAR, 66 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Marcus Bennett
1 REC, 25 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

STONY BROOK Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the StBrk 20

1st & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Donald Liotine run for 3 yds to the StBrk 23

2nd & 12Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.12

Joe Carbone pass complete to Donald Liotine for 6 yds to the StBrk 29

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Joe Carbone pass incomplete, broken up by Garrett Kauppila

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Marc Nolan punt for 45 yds , Ronald Cleveland returns for no gain to the AFA 26

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the AFA 30

2nd & 6Penalty+5 yds

STONY BROOK Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the AFA 35

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.30

Joseph Saucier run for no gain to the AFA 35

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.08

Parker Wilson run for 3 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Ronald Cleveland run for 6 yds to the AFA 44

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.22

Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Ronald Cleveland

3rd & 4Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.41

Arion Worthman run for 13 yds to the StBrk 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+31 ydsPPA +0.82

Joseph Saucier run for 31 yds to the StBrk 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Parker Wilson run for 5 yds to the StBrk 7

2nd & 5Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.46

Arion Worthman run for 7 yds for a TD, (Matthew Philichi KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Jordan Gowins run for 1 yd to the StBrk 26

2nd & 9Interception Return Touchdown-32 ydsPPA -7.33

Joe Carbone pass intercepted for a TD Kyle Johnson return for 32 yds for a TD, (Matthew Philichi KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Donald Liotine run for 2 yds to the StBrk 27

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Donald Liotine run for 2 yds to the StBrk 29

3rd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Joe Carbone pass complete to Donavin Washington for 5 yds to the StBrk 34

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Marc Nolan punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 32

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 27

1st & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Parker Wilson run for 3 yds to the AFA 30

2nd & 12Rush0 ydsPPA -0.38

Ronald Cleveland run for no gain to the AFA 30

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.18

Arion Worthman pass incomplete

4th & 12Rush-10 ydsPPA +0.27

Charlie Scott run for a loss of 10 yards to the AFA 20

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.37

Jordan Gowins run for no gain to the AFA 20

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Joe Carbone pass incomplete, broken up by Robert Bullard

3rd & 10Penalty+13 yds

Joe Carbone pass incomplete to Marshall Ellick, PENALTY AF pass interference 13 yards to the AF7, 1ST DOWN SBU, NO PLAY.

1st & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.13

Donald Liotine run for 5 yds to the AFA 2

2nd & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.56

Donald Liotine run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 3

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Joe Carbone pass incomplete to Donavin Washington

4th & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -4.08

Marc Nolan pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.26

Arion Worthman run for no gain to the AFA 3

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Joseph Saucier run for 4 yds to the AFA 7 AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) declined

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

Arion Worthman pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt+37 yds

Charlie Scott punt for 45 yds , Donavin Washington returns for 37 yds to the AFA 15

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-7 ydsPPA -0.92

Joe Carbone run for a loss of 7 yards to the AFA 29 Joe Carbone fumbled, recovered by StBrk Joe Carbone

2nd & 24Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Joe Carbone pass complete to Marshall Ellick for 3 yds to the AFA 26

3rd & 21Sack-1 ydsPPA -1.14

Joe Carbone sacked by Lakota Wills for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 27

4th & 22Field Goal Missed+45 yds

Nick Courtney 45 yd FG MISSED

3rd & 4Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.28

Joseph Saucier run for 12 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Ronald Cleveland run for 3 yds to the AFA 31

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Parker Wilson run for 3 yds to the AFA 34

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.65

Arion Worthman run for 7 yds to the StBrk 47

2nd & 3Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +0.89

Arion Worthman pass complete to Marcus Bennett for 25 yds to the StBrk 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the StBrk 19

2nd & 7Rush-13 ydsPPA -2.68

Ronald Cleveland run for a loss of 13 yards to the StBrk 32

3rd & 20Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.54

Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the StBrk 30

4th & 18Field Goal Good+48 ydsPPA +1.99

Matthew Philichi 48 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Donald Liotine run for 3 yds to the StBrk 32

2nd & 7Penalty-10 yds

Joe Carbone pass complete to Marshall Ellick for 7 yards to the SBU39 (BULLARD, Robert), PENALTY SBU holding (Chris Infantino) 10 yards to the SBU22, NO PLAY.

2nd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Joe Carbone pass incomplete to Marshall Ellick, broken up by Robert Bullard

3rd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.06

Joe Carbone pass incomplete

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Marc Nolan punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 25

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.52

Ronald Cleveland run for 17 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.99

Parker Wilson run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 2Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.03

Arion Worthman pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 4 yds to the StBrk 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Andrew Smith run for 3 yds to the StBrk 43

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Arion Worthman run for 8 yds to the StBrk 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.39

Nolan Eriksen run for 7 yds to the StBrk 28

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.54

Cole Fagan run for 1 yd to the StBrk 27

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.41

Cole Fagan run for 2 yds to the StBrk 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

STONY BROOK Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the StBrk 20

1st & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Cole Fagan run for 2 yds to the StBrk 18

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Garrett Amy run for 2 yds to the StBrk 16

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +2.66

Cole Fagan run for 16 yds for a TD, (Matthew Philichi KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.73

Donald Liotine run for no gain to the StBrk 26

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Donald Liotine run for 3 yds to the StBrk 29

3rd & 7Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.46

Joe Carbone sacked by R.J. Jackson for a loss of 9 yards to the StBrk 20

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Marc Nolan punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 45

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the AFA 48

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Nolan Eriksen run for 3 yds to the StBrk 49

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the StBrk 46

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +2.11

Cole Fagan run for 2 yds to the StBrk 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

WORTHMAN, Arion pass incomplete to CLEVELAND, Ron, PENALTY SBU personal foul (Odean Gilzene) 15 yards to the SBU29, 1ST DOWN AF, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the StBrk 27

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Cole Fagan run for 2 yds to the StBrk 25

3rd & 6Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+7 ydsPPA -3.59

Arion Worthman run for 7 yds to the StBrk 8 Arion Worthman fumbled, forced by CeQuan Jefferson, recovered by StBrk EJ Fineran

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Joe Carbone pass incomplete to Cal Daniels, broken up by Kyle Johnson

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.12

Donald Liotine run for 1 yd to the StBrk 9

3rd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Joe Carbone pass complete to Nick Anderson for 4 yds to the StBrk 13

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Marc Nolan punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 46

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Ronald Cleveland run for 1 yd to the AFA 47

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Ronald Cleveland, broken up by EJ Fineran

4th & 6Penalty+5 yds

STONY BROOK Penalty, Defensive offside (Jordan Scarbrough) to the StBrk 45

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +2.08

Cole Fagan run for 2 yds to the StBrk 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Field Goal Missed+61 yds

Matthew Philichi 61 yd FG MISSED

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Penalty-12 yds

AMY, Garrett rush for 2 yards to the AF27, out-of-bounds (Synceir Malone), PENALTY AF personal foul (SAUCIER, Joseph) 12 yards to the AF13, NO PLAY.

1st & 22Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

Arion Worthman pass incomplete to Marcus Bennett

2nd & 22Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Garrett Amy run for 4 yds to the AFA 17

3rd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.04

Arion Worthman pass incomplete

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Charlie Scott punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Donavin Washington at the StBrk 36

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Jordan Gowins run for 4 yds to the StBrk 40

2nd & 6Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-6 ydsPPA -1.69

Joe Carbone run for a loss of 6 yards to the StBrk 32 Joe Carbone fumbled, recovered by AFA Dailen Sutton

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Taven Birdow run for 4 yds to the StBrk 28

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the StBrk 25

3rd & 3Fumble Recovery (Opponent)0 ydsPPA -3.87

Joseph Saucier run for no gain to the StBrk 24 Joseph Saucier fumbled, recovered by StBrk EJ Fineran

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.56

Donald Liotine run for 1 yd to the StBrk 25

2nd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.54

Donald Liotine run for 8 yds to the StBrk 33

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.11

Donald Liotine run for 4 yds to the StBrk 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Joe Carbone pass incomplete to Nick Anderson

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Jordan Gowins run for 4 yds to the StBrk 41

3rd & 6Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.62

Joe Carbone pass complete to Donavin Washington for 12 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.28

Jordan Gowins run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 48

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Joe Carbone pass incomplete to Marshall Ellick

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Joe Carbone pass incomplete to Marshall Ellick

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Marc Nolan punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 12

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the AFA 15

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Isaiah Sanders run for 6 yds to the AFA 21

3rd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.94

Cole Fagan run for 8 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the AFA 32

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Nolan Eriksen run for 6 yds to the AFA 38

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.44

Cole Fagan run for 6 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the AFA 47

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Joseph Saucier run for 6 yds to the StBrk 47

3rd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.41

Taven Birdow run for a loss of 1 yard to the StBrk 48

4th & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +2.48

Taven Birdow run for 5 yds to the StBrk 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Isaiah Sanders run for 4 yds to the StBrk 39

2nd & 6Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.69

Joseph Saucier run for 11 yds to the StBrk 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Cole Fagan run for 4 yds to the StBrk 24

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Cole Fagan run for 4 yds to the StBrk 20

3rd & 2Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Nolan Eriksen run for 7 yds to the StBrk 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Cole Fagan run for 3 yds to the StBrk 10

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.31

Cole Fagan run for no gain to the StBrk 10

3rd & 7Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.48

Joseph Saucier run for 4 yds to the StBrk 6 for a 1ST down STONY BROOK Penalty, personal foul (EJ Fineran) to the StBrk 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the StBrk 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Isaiah Sanders run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matthew Philichi KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Kameron Pickett run for 1 yd to the StBrk 26

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Kameron Pickett run for 4 yds to the StBrk 30

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Joe Carbone pass incomplete to Marshall Ellick

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Marc Nolan punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 20

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Taven Birdow run for 3 yds to the AFA 23

2nd & 7Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.54

Joseph Saucier run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 21

3rd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Joseph Saucier run for 4 yds to the AFA 25

4th & 5Punt-2 yds

Charlie Scott punt for 38 yds , Donavin Washington returns for a loss of 2 yards to the StBrk 35

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Jordan Gowins run for 4 yds to the StBrk 39

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Tyquell Fields pass incomplete to Julius Wingate, broken up by Garrett Kauppila

3rd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Tyquell Fields pass complete to Julius Wingate for 5 yds to the StBrk 44

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.69

Tyquell Fields run for no gain to the StBrk 44

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Taven Birdow run for 2 yds to the StBrk 42

2nd & 8Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.22

Isaiah Sanders run for 16 yds to the StBrk 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.33

Christian Mallard run for 7 yds to the StBrk 19

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Christian Mallard run for 1 yd to the StBrk 18

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.54

Christian Mallard run for no gain to the StBrk 18

4th & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.79

Donald Hammond III run for 4 yds to the StBrk 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Christian Mallard run for 8 yds to the StBrk 6

2nd & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.57

Donald Hammond III run for a loss of 1 yard to the StBrk 7

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Garrett Kauppila run for 2 yds to the StBrk 5

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.85

Donald Hammond III run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jake Koehnke KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Kameron Pickett run for 3 yds to the StBrk 21

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Kameron Pickett run for 2 yds to the StBrk 23

3rd & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.53

Tyquell Fields pass complete to Nick Anderson for 10 yds to the StBrk 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Kameron Pickett run for 1 yd to the StBrk 34

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Kameron Pickett run for 4 yds to the StBrk 38

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Kameron Pickett run for 4 yds to the StBrk 42

Situational Analysis

Stony Brook

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
6%
16 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
1 play
0%
2 plays
10%
10 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
57%
7 plays
0%
2 plays
0%
3 plays
4th
0%
2 plays

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
35%
26 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
38%
8 plays
40%
5 plays
38%
13 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
60%
10 plays
33%
6 plays
50%
2 plays
0%
3 plays
4th
100%
5 plays
100%
2 plays