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← Back to GamesNov 17, 2018Week 12
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Troy by 30.9

Home Win Probability

Troy 96%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Nov 17, 2018

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Texas StateTexas State
00077
TroyTroy
360312

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40143-06-09-012-012-7
TroyTexas State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20TSTROTSTROTSTROTSTROTSTROTSTROTSTROTSTROTSTROTSTROTSTROTSTROTSTROTSTROPUNT37ydFG1242ydTO863ydPUNT39ydTO516ydPUNT31ydPUNT35ydFG827ydTO833ydFG513ydTO38ydPUNT3-6ydPUNT443ydPUNT36ydTO419ydPUNT39ydEND18ydPUNT31ydPUNT38ydPUNT617ydPUNT33ydPUNT31ydTO10ydFG1451ydTD765ydPUNT624ydPUNT611ydEND615yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Texas State and Troy
StatisticTexas StateTroy
Passing9-2313-27
Pass Yards15579
Rush Yards129141
Total Yards284220
Turnovers60
3rd Down6-137-22
Penalties2-104-25
Possession24:0135:59

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Texas State
passing
Tyler Vitt
9/23, 155 YDS, 5 INT
rushing
Caleb Twyford
11 CAR, 73 YDS
receiving
Hutch White
2 REC, 42 YDS
defense
Nikolas Daniels
0.5 TFL, 1 PD
Troy
passing
Sawyer Smith
13/27, 79 YDS
rushing
B.J. Smith
24 CAR, 94 YDS
receiving
Sidney Davis
5 REC, 43 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.45

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 7 yds to the TexSt 22

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.68

Robert Brown Jr. run for no gain to the TexSt 22

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Mason Hays

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Clayton Stewart punt for 39 yds, downed at the Troy 39

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.05

Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sidney Davis for 9 yds to the Troy 48

3rd & 1Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.90

Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sidney Davis for 16 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the TexSt 32

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.36

B.J. Smith run for 6 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.48

B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the TexSt 25

3rd & 9Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.25

B.J. Smith run for 16 yds to the TexSt 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sidney Davis for 2 yds to the TexSt 7

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the TexSt 5

3rd & 5Fumble Recovery (Own)-14 ydsPPA -2.32

TEAM run for a loss of 14 yards to the TexSt 19 TEAM fumbled,

4th & 19Field Goal Good+36 ydsPPA +1.09

Tyler Sumpter 36 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Caleb Twyford run for 8 yds to the TexSt 33

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Keenen Brown

3rd & 2Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.54

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 7 yds to the TexSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.28

Caleb Twyford run for 15 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Tyler Vitt run for 1 yd to the Troy 44

2nd & 9Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +1.82

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Hutch White for 35 yds to the Troy 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.49

Caleb Twyford run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 12

2nd & 12Pass Interception Return-15 ydsPPA -4.09

Tyler Vitt pass intercepted Cedarius Rookard return for 15 yds to the Troy 16

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 17

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the Troy 21

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Sidney Davis run for 4 yds to the Troy 25

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Tyler Sumpter punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 20

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Tyler Watts, broken up by Carlton Martial

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.29

Anthony D. Taylor run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 19

3rd & 11Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.90

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Jeremiah Haydel for 15 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the TexSt 36

2nd & 8Pass Interception Return-11 ydsPPA -1.05

Tyler Vitt pass intercepted Cedarius Rookard return for 11 yds to the TexSt 40

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.80

Sawyer Smith run for 1 yd to the TexSt 39

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Tyler Sumpter punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 9

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Caleb Twyford run for no gain to the TexSt 9

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Keenen Brown, broken up by Kyler Knudsen

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.06

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Caleb Twyford, broken up by Travon Mathis

4th & 10Penalty+5 yds

Stewart,Clayton punt 34 yards to the TXST43, Dunlap, Terence return to the TXST43, PENALTY TROY roughing the kicker (Knudsen, Kyler) 5 yards to the TXST14, NO PLAY.

4th & 5Punt+12 yds

Clayton Stewart punt for 55 yds , Terence Dunlap returns for 12 yds to the Troy 43

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.99

B.J. Smith run for 12 yds to the TexSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard line

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Sidney Davis

2nd & 15Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.65

Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sidney Davis for 12 yds to the TexSt 38

3rd & 3Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA +0.97

Sawyer Smith pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 3 yds to the TexSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to B.J. Smith, broken up by Caeveon Patton

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 5 yds to the TexSt 30

3rd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.92

B.J. Smith run for no gain to the TexSt 30

4th & 5Field Goal Good+47 ydsPPA +0.52

Tyler Sumpter 47 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Hutch White, broken up by Melvin Tyus

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.35

Caleb Twyford run for no gain to the TexSt 25

3rd & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.66

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 18 yds to the TexSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-11 ydsPPA -2.60

Caleb Twyford run for a loss of 11 yards to the TexSt 32

2nd & 21Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.00

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Javen Banks for 18 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 3Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.01

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Javen Banks for 13 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-5 ydsPPA -1.77

Tyler Vitt run for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 42 Tyler Vitt fumbled, recovered by TexSt

2nd & 15Pass Interception Return-15 ydsPPA -2.18

Tyler Vitt pass intercepted Hunter Reese return for 15 yds to the TexSt 38

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.37

Sawyer Smith pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 12 yds to the TexSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete, broken up by Bryan London II

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.48

B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the TexSt 25

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to B.J. Smith, broken up by Nikolas Daniels

4th & 9Field Goal Good+42 ydsPPA +0.53

Tyler Sumpter 42 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Anthony D. Taylor run for 4 yds to the TexSt 29

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Anthony D. Taylor run for 4 yds to the TexSt 33

3rd & 2Pass Interception Return-5 ydsPPA -0.70

Tyler Vitt pass intercepted Tyler Murray return for 5 yds to the TexSt 32

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.46

Marcus Jones run for 1 yd to the TexSt 31

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Sawyer Smith run for 1 yd to the TexSt 30

3rd & 8Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.49

Sawyer Smith sacked by Ishmael Davis for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSt 38

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Tyler Sumpter punt for 38 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+41 ydsPPA +3.25

Caleb Twyford run for 41 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.62

Robert Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the Troy 38

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.76

Robert Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the Troy 37

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Clayton Stewart punt for 30 yds, downed at the Troy 7

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.31

Sawyer Smith pass complete to Marcus Jones for no gain to the Troy 7

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.08

B.J. Smith run for 6 yds to the Troy 13

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.18

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Deondre Douglas

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Tyler Sumpter punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Hutch White at the TexSt 44

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Caleb Twyford run for 5 yds to the TexSt 49

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.78

Caleb Twyford run for 6 yds to the Troy 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Keenen Brown for 4 yds to the Troy 41

2nd & 6Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+4 ydsPPA -3.41

Caleb Twyford run for 4 yds to the Troy 37 Caleb Twyford fumbled, forced by Cedarius Rookard, recovered by Troy Tyler Murray

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 40

2nd & 7Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Sawyer Smith pass complete to Bret Clark for 2 yds to the Troy 42

3rd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sidney Davis for 4 yds to the Troy 46

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Tyler Sumpter punt for 54 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

TROY Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the TexSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.10

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSt 28

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 1 yd to the Troy 33

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 5 yds to the Troy 38

3rd & 4Penalty-5 yds

TROY Penalty, false start (Dylan Bradshaw) to the Troy 33

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Sidney Davis

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Tyler Sumpter punt for 30 yds, downed at the TexSt 37

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Tyler Vitt run for 7 yds to the TexSt 44

2nd & 3Penalty-5 yds

TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Jalen Momerelle) to the TexSt 39

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Robert Brown Jr. run for 1 yd to the TexSt 40

3rd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Tyler Vitt run for 5 yds to the TexSt 45

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Clayton Stewart punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Terence Dunlap at the Troy 14

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Sawyer Smith run for 4 yds to the Troy 18

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete, broken up by Bryan London II

3rd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.03

Sawyer Smith run for 7 yds to the Troy 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

B.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the Troy 30

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.48

B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 32

3rd & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.58

Sawyer Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 31

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Tyler Sumpter punt for 41 yds, downed at the TexSt 28

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the TexSt 30

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Hutch White

3rd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Tyler Vitt run for 1 yd to the TexSt 31

4th & 7Punt+10 yds

Clayton Stewart punt for 46 yds , Terence Dunlap returns for 10 yds to the Troy 33

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.23

B.J. Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 31

2nd & 12Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 34

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Luke Whittemore

4th & 9Punt+3 yds

Tyler Sumpter punt for 50 yds , Hutch White returns for 3 yds to the TexSt 19

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.56

Tyler Vitt pass intercepted Blace Brown return for no gain to the Troy 39

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

DK Billingsley run for 5 yds to the Troy 44

2nd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.06

DK Billingsley run for 8 yds to the TexSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.68

B.J. Smith run for 12 yds to the TexSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.58

B.J. Smith run for 8 yds to the TexSt 28

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.56

DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the TexSt 27

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.30

DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the TexSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Sawyer Smith run for 4 yds to the TexSt 21

2nd & 6Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Sawyer Smith pass complete to Bret Clark for 1 yd to the TexSt 20

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the TexSt 16

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.61

B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the TexSt 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.39

Sawyer Smith pass complete to Deondre Douglas for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 16

2nd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the TexSt 14

3rd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the TexSt 10

4th & 5Field Goal Good+27 ydsPPA -0.79

Tyler Sumpter 27 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Caleb Twyford run for 8 yds to the TexSt 43

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -1.35

Anthony D. Taylor run for no gain to the TexSt 43

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.37

Anthony D. Taylor run for 3 yds to the TexSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.92

Anthony D. Taylor run for 8 yds to the Troy 46

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Anthony D. Taylor run for 5 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+38 ydsPPA +1.78

Tyler Vitt pass complete to Mason Hays for 38 yds to the Troy 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Anthony D. Taylor run for 3 yds for a TD (Chris Kessler KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.55

B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 38

3rd & 9Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +3.37

Sawyer Smith pass complete to Richard Hallman for 20 yds to the TexSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.13

Sawyer Smith pass complete to DK Billingsley for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSt 43

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Bret Clark, broken up by Jarron Morris

3rd & 11Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the TexSt 39

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Tyler Sumpter punt for 25 yds, downed at the TexSt 14

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Anthony D. Taylor run for 5 yds to the TexSt 19

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Anthony D. Taylor run for 2 yds to the TexSt 21

3rd & 3Penalty-5 yds

TEXAS STATE Penalty, false start (Morgan Moore) to the TexSt 16

3rd & 8Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.87

Tyler Vitt run for 18 yds to the TexSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.58

Anthony D. Taylor run for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSt 29

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Tyler Vitt pass incomplete to Hutch White, broken up by Tyler Murray

3rd & 15Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.17

Tyler Vitt sacked by Jarvis Hayes and Travis Sailo for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSt 25

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Clayton Stewart punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Terence Dunlap at the Troy 27

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 30

2nd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.70

B.J. Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 29

3rd & 8Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.20

Sawyer Smith run for 11 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Sawyer Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 42

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 44

3rd & 6Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 42

Situational Analysis

Texas State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
40%
25 plays
2nd
25%
4 plays
25%
4 plays
13%
8 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
50%
6 plays
50%
2 plays
4th

Troy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
23%
26 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
1 play
40%
5 plays
29%
14 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
13%
8 plays
33%
9 plays
0%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play
100%
1 play