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← Back to GamesSep 30, 2018Week 5

House Prediction

Model Margin

Fresno State by 12.4

Home Win Probability

Fresno State 76%

No market line posted for this game.

fitted_v1 · Sep 30, 2018

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
ToledoToledo
7601427
Fresno StateFresno State
72121049

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842567-07-77-1014-1321-1335-1342-1349-1349-27
Fresno StateToledo

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20TOLFSTOLFSTOLFSTOLFSTOLFSTOLFSTOLFSFSTOLTOLFSTOLFSTOLFSTOLFSTOLFSPUNT36ydTD1275ydTD1075ydPUNT623ydFG969ydTO324ydFG612ydTD676ydPUNT36ydTD678ydPUNT31ydTD147ydPUNT37ydMISS633ydTD675ydTD59ydDOWNS939ydTD974ydPUNT3-5ydPUNT35ydMISS628ydPUNT630ydTD790ydPUNT35ydTD773ydEND419yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Toledo and Fresno State
StatisticToledoFresno State
Passing16-3124-32
Pass Yards238368
Rush Yards137186
Total Yards375554
Turnovers11
3rd Down5-155-10
Penalties3-253-45
Possession29:5130:09

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Toledo
passing
Eli Peters
10/21, 179 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Mitchell Guadagni
8 CAR, 55 YDS
receiving
Jon'Vea Johnson
6 REC, 112 YDS, 2 TD
defense
Fresno State
passing
Marcus McMaryion
24/31, 368 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Josh Hokit
7 CAR, 59 YDS
receiving
Jordan Mims
6 REC, 126 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.64

Shakif Seymour run for no gain to the Toled 23

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Mitchell Guadagni run for 3 yds to the Toled 26

3rd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Mitchell Guadagni run for 3 yds to the Toled 29

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Bailey Flint punt for 46 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 3 yds to the FrsSt 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.81

Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 14 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 47

2nd & 5Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Mims for 4 yds to the Toled 49

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.00

Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 5 yds to the Toled 42

2nd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Dejonte O'Neal for 7 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.37

Dejonte O'Neal run for 2 yds to the Toled 33

2nd & 8Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.78

Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Cam Sutton for 18 yds to the Toled 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Josh Hokit run for 4 yds to the Toled 11

2nd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.89

Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Mims for 7 yds to the Toled 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Jordan Mims run for 4 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the Toled 27

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Shakif Seymour run for 5 yds to the Toled 32

3rd & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.32

Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 4 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Shakif Seymour run for 6 yds to the Toled 42

2nd & 4Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +1.93

Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Cody Thompson for 28 yds to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Cody Thompson, broken up by Anthoula Kelly

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.59

Mitchell Guadagni run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 21

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.18

Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Diontae Johnson

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +2.97

Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 19 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Marcus McMaryion run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 35

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.91

Jordan Mims run for no gain to the FrsSt 35

3rd & 5Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.32

Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Chris Coleman for 11 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.92

Jordan Mims run for 8 yds to the Toled 46

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.97

Jordan Mims run for 1 yd to the Toled 45

3rd & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.63

Jordan Mims run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 47

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Blake Cusick punt for 45 yds, downed at the Toled 2

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Toled 5

2nd & 7Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.46

Bryant Koback run for 10 yds to the Toled 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Diontae Johnson

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Art Thompkins run for 4 yds to the Toled 19

3rd & 6Rush+51 ydsPPA +4.28

Mitchell Guadagni run for 36 yds to the FRESNOST 45 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, personal foul (Kevin Atkins) to the FrsSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Art Thompkins run for no gain to the FrsSt 30

2nd & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.37

Art Thompkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 33

3rd & 13Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 4 yds to the FrsSt 29

4th & 9Field Goal Good+46 ydsPPA +0.91

Jameson Vest 46 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jared Rice

2nd & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.86

Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 24 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return-4 ydsPPA -3.08

Marcus McMaryion pass intercepted Jamal Hines return for 4 yds to the FrsSt 38

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Shakif Seymour run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 33

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.25

Shakif Seymour run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.64

Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Diontae Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 29

2nd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Mitchell Guadagni run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 26

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Diontae Johnson, broken up by Anthoula Kelly

4th & 8Field Goal Good+43 ydsPPA +0.51

Jameson Vest 43 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 27

2nd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.19

Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jared Rice for 8 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 38

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jared Rice

3rd & 7Pass Reception+55 ydsPPA +4.32

Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Mims for 55 yds to the Toled 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.20

Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 7 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the Toled 30

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Toled 33

3rd & 2Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.75

Bryant Koback run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 31

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Bailey Flint punt for 47 yds

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.17

Marcus McMaryion run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 31

2nd & 1Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.41

Josh Hokit run for 21 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.59

Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Josh Hokit for 10 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+36 ydsPPA +1.88

Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 36 yds to the Toled 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.85

Josh Hokit run for no gain to the Toled 2

2nd & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Kyle Riddering for 2 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Mitchell Guadagni run for 1 yd to the Toled 26

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Mitchell Guadagni run for 4 yds to the Toled 30

3rd & 5Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.53

Eli Peters sacked by Kwami Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 26

4th & 9Punt+18 yds

Bailey Flint punt for 39 yds , Ronnie Rivers returns for 18 yds to the Toled 47

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+47 ydsPPA +3.61

Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Mims for 47 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Art Thompkins run for 6 yds to the Toled 25

2nd & 4Fumble Recovery (Own)-4 ydsPPA -0.98

Mitchell Guadagni sacked by Mykal Walker for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 21 Mitchell Guadagni fumbled, recovered by Toled Mitchell Guadagni , return for 0 yards

3rd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 5 yds to the Toled 26

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Bailey Flint punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Ronnie Rivers at the FrsSt 40

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jared Rice, broken up by Kahlil Robinson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.41

Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 15 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

MCMARYION, M. pass incomplete to MIMS, Jordan, PENALTY TOLEDO holding (TAAFE, Tyler) 10 yards to the TOLEDO35, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.66

Marcus McMaryion sacked by Desjaun Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 40

2nd & 15Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.52

Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Chris Coleman for 13 yds to the Toled 27

3rd & 2Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.79

Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Mims for no gain to the Toled 27

4th & 2Field Goal Missed+43 yds

Asa Fuller 43 yd FG MISSED

0th & 2End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Jordan Mims run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +3.47

Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 39 yds to the Toled 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Dejonte O'Neal run for 3 yds to the Toled 30

2nd & 7Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.52

Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Mims for 13 yds to the Toled 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the Toled 12

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.51

Marcus McMaryion pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 12 yds for a TD TOLEDO Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined (Asa Fuller KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Eli Peters pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.60

Eli Peters pass complete to Diontae Johnson for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

PETERS, Eli rush for 10 yards to the FS40, PENALTY TOLEDO holding (HEIDECKER, B.) 10 yards to the TOLEDO40, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Eli Peters pass incomplete to Desmond Phillips

2nd & 20Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.30

Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd to the Toled 41

3rd & 19Interception Return Touchdown-38 ydsPPA -6.96

Eli Peters pass intercepted for a TD Mykal Walker return for 38 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Eli Peters pass incomplete to Cody Thompson

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Eli Peters pass incomplete to Shakif Seymour

3rd & 10Penalty+15 yds

PETERS, Eli pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Di., PENALTY FS pass interference (FREE, Wylan) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Eli Peters pass incomplete to Cody Thompson

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 45

3rd & 5Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.20

Eli Peters pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 21 yds to the FrsSt 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 21

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Eli Peters run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 18

3rd & 4Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Eli Peters pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 1 yd to the FrsSt 17

4th & 3Sack-9 ydsPPA -3.63

Eli Peters sacked by Jasad Haynes for a loss of 9 yards to the FrsSt 26

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Josh Hokit run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 28

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Kyle Riddering

3rd & 8Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.13

Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Derrion Grim for 11 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +1.71

Josh Hokit run for 22 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.44

Josh Hokit run for 7 yds to the Toled 32

2nd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA -0.01

Ronnie Rivers run for 6 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.36

Derrion Grim run for 1 yd to the Toled 25

2nd & 9Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.03

Ronnie Rivers run for 19 yds to the Toled 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.05

Marcus McMaryion run for 6 yds for a TD (Asa Fuller KICK)

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-1 ydsPPA -0.88

Art Thompkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 26 Art Thompkins fumbled, recovered by Toled Art Thompkins

2nd & 11Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Art Thompkins run for 5 yds to the Toled 31

3rd & 6Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.58

Eli Peters sacked by George Helmuth for a loss of 9 yards to the Toled 22

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Bailey Flint punt for 48 yds, downed at the FrsSt 30

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.10

Dejonte O'Neal run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 28

2nd & 12Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.29

Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Kyle Riddering for 7 yds to the FrsSt 35

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Chris Coleman, broken up by Josh Teachey

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Blake Cusick punt for 13 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 48

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.75

Eli Peters pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 14 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+24 ydsPPA +0.42

Ronnie Jones run for 24 yds to the FrsSt 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Ronnie Jones run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 4

2nd & 4Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.49

Ronnie Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 6

3rd & 6Sack-14 ydsPPA -2.47

Eli Peters sacked by George Helmuth for a loss of 14 yards to the FrsSt 20

4th & 20Field Goal Missed+37 yds

Jameson Vest 37 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Josh Hokit run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 23

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 28

3rd & 2Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.09

Jordan Mims run for 15 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Jordan Mims run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 45

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jordan Mims run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Chris Coleman

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Blake Cusick punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Sam Womack at the Toled 10

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Eli Peters pass complete to Rhett Blackman for 7 yds to the Toled 17

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Eli Peters pass incomplete to Jon'Vea Johnson

3rd & 3Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.28

Eli Peters pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 13 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Eli Peters pass incomplete to Rhett Blackman

2nd & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +2.37

Ronnie Jones run for 1 yd to the Toled 31 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, personal foul (Jordan Mims) to the Toled 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Eli Peters pass incomplete to Rhett Blackman, broken up by Mykal Walker

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+54 ydsPPA +5.34

Eli Peters pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 54 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Saevion Johnson run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 25

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Saevion Johnson run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 28

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Jorge Reyna pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Blake Cusick punt for 45 yds , Sam Womack returns for no gain to the Toled 27

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Eli Peters pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.75

Ronnie Jones run for 11 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Eli Peters pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell, broken up by Anthoula Kelly

2nd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.43

Eli Peters pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 15 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.60

Ronnie Jones run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.31

Eli Peters pass complete to Jamal Turner for 11 yds to the FrsSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+25 ydsPPA +2.70

Eli Peters pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 25 yds for a TD (Jameson Vest KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Saevion Johnson run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 28

2nd & 7Rush+19 ydsPPA +2.28

Jorge Reyna run for 19 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

Saevion Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 46

2nd & 11Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.16

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 44

Situational Analysis

Toledo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
38%
29 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
1 play
40%
5 plays
63%
16 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
33%
6 plays
33%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play
100%
2 plays

Fresno State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
100%
2 plays
39%
31 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
60%
5 plays
79%
14 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
40%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
100%
2 plays
4th