Skip to main content
← Back to GamesOct 14, 2016Week 7
DukeDuke
14
-Final
24
LouisvilleLouisville
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Louisville by 13.9

Home Win Probability

Louisville 85%

No market line posted for this game.

elo_v1 · Oct 14, 2016

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
DukeDuke
700714
LouisvilleLouisville
737724

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-07-710-717-717-1424-14
LouisvilleDuke

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20LOUDUKLOUDUKLOUDUKLOUDUKLOUDUKDUKLOUDUKLOUDUKLOUDUKLOUDUKLOUTD1080ydTD879ydPUNT522ydPUNT34ydFG666ydPUNT513ydPUNT519ydMISS1245ydPUNT625ydEND29ydPUNT32ydTD594ydPUNT616ydTO880ydPUNT31ydMISS59ydTD1575ydTD1280ydDOWNS45ydEND1-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Duke and Louisville
StatisticDukeLouisville
Passing14-2113-26
Pass Yards129181
Rush Yards110288
Total Yards239469
Turnovers01
3rd Down8-165-11
Penalties3-254-32
Possession37:1222:48

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Duke
passing
Daniel Jones
14/21, 129 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Jela Duncan
12 CAR, 44 YDS
receiving
T.J. Rahming
7 REC, 83 YDS
defense
Louisville
passing
Lamar Jackson
13/26, 181 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Lamar Jackson
21 CAR, 144 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jamari Staples
3 REC, 62 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.69

Lamar Jackson run for 10 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 6 yds to the Lvile 36

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 39

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.36

Brandon Radcliff run for 5 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.26

Brandon Radcliff run for 9 yds to the Duke 47

2nd & 1Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +0.52

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 29 yds to the Duke 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the Duke 14

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.10

Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 9 yds to the Duke 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 5 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+18 yds

Blanton Creque kickoff for 62 yds , Shaun Wilson return for 18 yds to the Duke 21

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.67

Shaun Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 20

2nd & 11Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.20

Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Duke 21

3rd & 10Pass Reception+51 ydsPPA +4.43

Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 51 yds to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 3 yds to the Lvile 25

2nd & 7Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.38

Daniel Jones run for 12 yds to the Lvile 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 11

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 9

3rd & 6Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.87

Daniel Jones pass complete to Erich Schneider for 9 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Lamar Jackson run for 3 yds to the Lvile 23

2nd & 7Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.29

Brandon Radcliff run for 11 yds to the Lvile 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.14

Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 33

2nd & 11Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.83

Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 9 yds to the Lvile 42

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Keith Towbridge

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Mason King punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Ryan Smith at the Duke 22

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Daniel Jones run for 2 yds to the Duke 24

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Joseph Ajeigbe run for 2 yds to the Duke 26

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming

4th & 6Punt+9 yds

Austin Parker punt for 54 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for 9 yds to the Lvile 29

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.12

Lamar Jackson run for 12 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+53 ydsPPA +2.61

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 53 yds to the Duke 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.28

Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Duke 4

2nd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.43

Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 5

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Traveon Samuel

4th & 5Field Goal Good+22 ydsPPA -0.95

Evan O'Hara 22 yd FG GOOD

4th & 9Kickoff Return (Offense)+25 yds

Blanton Creque kickoff for 63 yds , Shaun Wilson return for 25 yds to the Duke 27

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.95

Jela Duncan run for 8 yds to the Duke 35

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.07

Jela Duncan run for 2 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Daniel Helm

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.55

Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Duke 38

3rd & 9Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 2 yds to the Duke 40

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Austin Parker punt for 49 yds, downed at the Lvile 11

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.39

Brandon Radcliff run for 7 yds to the Lvile 18

2nd & 3Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.51

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Reggie Bonnafon for 10 yds to the Lvile 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari Staples

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 30

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James Quick

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Mason King punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ryan Smith at the Duke 33

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Duke 34

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Shaun Wilson run for 5 yds to the Duke 39

3rd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.78

Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 5 yds to the Duke 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Jela Duncan run for 1 yd to the Duke 45

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Jela Duncan run for 3 yds to the Duke 48

3rd & 6Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.44

Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 11 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

DUKE Penalty, False Start (Daniel Helm) to the Lvile 46

1st & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Jela Duncan run for 5 yds to the Lvile 41

2nd & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.86

Shaun Wilson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 45

3rd & 14Penalty+15 yds

Jones, Daniel pass incomplete to Nash, Anthony, PENALTY LOUISVILLE roughing passer (Kelsey, Keith) 15 yards to the LOUISVILLE30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.69

Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 9 yds to the Lvile 21

2nd & 1Fumble Recovery (Own)-1 ydsPPA -0.79

Shaun Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 22 Shaun Wilson fumbled, recovered by Duke Shaun Wilson

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.64

Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the Lvile 22

4th & 2Field Goal Missed+40 yds

AJ Reed 40 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Reggie Bonnafon

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.43

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 8 yds to the Lvile 30

3rd & 2Rush+17 ydsPPA +2.37

Lamar Jackson run for 17 yds to the Lvile 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari Staples

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Lamar Jackson run for no gain to the Lvile 47

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari Staples

4th & 10Punt+9 yds

Mason King punt for 34 yds , Ryan Smith returns for 9 yds to the Duke 28

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Jela Duncan run for 3 yds to the Duke 31

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Jela Duncan run for 6 yds to the Duke 37

0th & 7End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.53

Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for a loss of 3 yards to the Duke 34

2nd & 13Rush0 ydsPPA -0.44

Shaun Wilson run for no gain to the Duke 34

3rd & 13Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Daniel Jones pass complete to Anthony Nash for 5 yds to the Duke 39

4th & 8Punt+2 yds

Austin Parker punt for 51 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for 2 yds to the Lvile 41 LOUISVILLE Penalty, Illegal Block (Jamari Staples) to the Lvile 6

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Jeremy Smith run for 1 yd to the Lvile 7

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.10

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 6 yds to the Lvile 13

3rd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.66

Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the Lvile 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Seth Dawkins

2nd & 10Rushing Touchdown+80 ydsPPA +6.94

Jeremy Smith run for 80 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Jela Duncan run for 2 yds to the Duke 23

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.37

Jela Duncan run for 7 yds to the Duke 30

3rd & 1Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA +0.82

Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 2 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Daniel Jones pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Jela Duncan run for 6 yds to the Duke 38

3rd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.71

Daniel Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 37

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Parker Boehme punt for 48 yds, downed at the Lvile 15

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +2.16

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 28 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.74

Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 40

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Reggie Bonnafon

3rd & 13Rush+19 ydsPPA +3.58

Lamar Jackson run for 19 yds to the Duke 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 6 yds to the Duke 35

2nd & 4Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.32

Lamar Jackson run for 13 yds to the Duke 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 7 yds to the Duke 15

2nd & 3Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+10 ydsPPA -4.67

Brandon Radcliff run for 10 yds to the Duke 5 Brandon Radcliff fumbled, recovered by Duke Alonzo Saxton II

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Jela Duncan run for 2 yds to the Duke 7

2nd & 8Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.20

Jela Duncan run for a loss of 1 yard to the Duke 6

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.06

Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming

4th & 9Punt+8 yds

Danny Stirt punt for 41 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for 8 yds to the Duke 14 DUKE Penalty, Illegal Motion (-5 Yards) to the Duke 34

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.27

Jeremy Smith run for 11 yds to the Duke 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the Duke 19

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari Staples

3rd & 6Penalty-6 yds

Jackson, Lamar pass complete to Quick, James for 13 yards to the DUKE6, PENALTY LOUISVILLE illegal formation 6 yards to the DUKE25, NO PLAY.

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen Smith

4th & 12Field Goal Missed+42 yds

Evan O'Hara 42 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Shaun Wilson run for 3 yds to the Duke 28

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Daniel Jones run for 5 yds to the Duke 33

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Shaun Wilson run for 1 yd to the Duke 34

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.75

Parker Boehme run for 3 yds to the Duke 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Daniel Jones pass incomplete to T.J. Rahming

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.55

Daniel Jones run for 1 yd to the Duke 38

3rd & 9Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.83

Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Shaun Wilson run for 7 yds to the Lvile 43

2nd & 3Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Daniel Jones pass complete to Chris Taylor for 2 yds to the Lvile 41

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.87

Shaun Wilson run for 5 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.58

Shaun Wilson run for 8 yds to the Lvile 28

2nd & 2Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.56

Daniel Jones pass complete to T.J. Rahming for 1 yd to the Lvile 27

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.30

Shaun Wilson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Shaun Wilson run for 5 yds to the Lvile 20

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +2.62

Daniel Jones pass complete to Johnathan Lloyd for 20 yds for a TD, (AJ Reed KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Lamar Jackson run for 6 yds to the Lvile 26

2nd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.49

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jamari Staples for 5 yds to the Lvile 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Khalil Hunter) to the Lvile 26

1st & 15Rush+19 ydsPPA +2.27

Lamar Jackson run for 19 yds to the Lvile 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Jeremy Smith run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 5Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.30

Traveon Samuel run for 18 yds to the Duke 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the Duke 28

2nd & 6Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.35

Lamar Jackson run for 11 yds to the Duke 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-7 ydsPPA -1.01

Traveon Samuel run for a loss of 7 yards to the Duke 24

3rd & 22Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jamari Staples

4th & 22Penalty+15 yds

DUKE Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (Breon Borders) to the Duke 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.34

Lamar Jackson run for 12 yds to the Duke 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Evan O'Hara KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.86

Daniel Jones run for no gain to the Duke 30

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Erich Schneider

3rd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Daniel Jones run for 5 yds to the Duke 35

4th & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.01

Daniel Jones pass incomplete to Erich Schneider

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.05

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Duke 37

Situational Analysis

Duke

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
25%
20 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
0%
4 plays
100%
1 play
43%
14 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
60%
5 plays
60%
5 plays
100%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

Louisville

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
50%
2 plays
50%
26 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
67%
3 plays
50%
8 plays
67%
6 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
0%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play