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← Back to GamesOct 29, 2016Week 9
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Air Force by 6.7

Home Win Probability

Fresno State 30%

No market line posted for this game.

elo_v1 · Oct 29, 2016

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Air ForceAir Force
07101431
Fresno StateFresno State
777021

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-014-014-1021-1721-2421-31
Fresno StateAir Force

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20FSAFFSAFFSAFFSAFFSAFFSAFFSAFFSFSAFFSAFFSAFFSAFFSAFPUNT37ydTO1145ydTD459ydPUNT641ydTO3-1ydMISS539ydTD1080ydPUNT33ydTO1362ydTO33ydTO512ydTD551ydEND11ydFG1664ydTD314ydTD669ydPUNT728ydPUNT31ydTD953ydTO748ydDOWNS1582ydDOWNS43ydTD27ydDOWNS61ydEND2-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Air Force and Fresno State
StatisticAir ForceFresno State
Passing5-919-38
Pass Yards97312
Rush Yards32737
Total Yards424349
Turnovers14
3rd Down9-177-14
Penalties6-478-55
Possession35:0124:59

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Air Force
passing
Nate Romine
5/9, 97 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Arion Worthman
20 CAR, 102 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Jalen Robinette
3 REC, 54 YDS
defense
Fresno State
passing
Chason Virgil
18/37, 303 YDS, 3 TD, 4 INT
rushing
Dontel James
19 CAR, 24 YDS
receiving
KeeSean Johnson
10 REC, 142 YDS, 3 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Chason Virgil pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for 3 yds to the FrsSt 37

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Jamire Jordan run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 41

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jamire Jordan

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Blake Cusick punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 14

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.48

Nate Romine run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 13

3rd & 2Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.35

Jacobi Owens run for 11 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the AFA 35

2nd & 11Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.36

Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 9 yds to the AFA 22

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Timothy McVey run for 5 yds to the AFA 40

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.58

Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Nate Romine run for 2 yds to the AFA 46

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Nate Romine run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 49

3rd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.42

Parker Wilson run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.31

Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 40

2nd & 4Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-1 ydsPPA -3.77

Parker Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 41 Parker Wilson fumbled, forced by Nela Otukolo, recovered by FrsSt James Bailey

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Dontel James run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 43

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson

3rd & 8Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +3.29

Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 21 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+36 ydsPPA +3.01

KeeSean Johnson 36 Yd pass from Chason Virgil (Kody Kroening Kick)

1st & 10Rush+26 ydsPPA +2.26

Shayne Davern run for 26 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.60

Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 46

2nd & 12Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.41

Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 14 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Nate Romine run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 37

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Nate Romine pass incomplete to Tyler Williams

3rd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Nate Romine run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 32

4th & 2Penalty-5 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 37

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Steve Brosy punt for 22 yds, fair catch by Tyquwan Glass at the FrsSt 15

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Dontel James run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 20

2nd & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.55

Treyvon Green run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 19

3rd & 6Penalty-5 yds

FRESNO ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 14

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.07

Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson

4th & 11Punt+34 yds

Blake Cusick punt for 34 yds , Brett Baldwin returns for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 49 Brett Baldwin fumbled, recovered by AFA

1st & 10Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +1.17

Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 31 yds to the FrsSt 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Shayne Davern run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 12

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Nate Romine run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 10

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.39

Timothy McVey run for no gain to the FrsSt 10

4th & 2Field Goal Missed+27 yds

Luke Strebel 27 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Dontel James run for no gain to the FrsSt 20

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.26

Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for no gain to the FrsSt 20

3rd & 10Pass Reception+58 ydsPPA +4.56

Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 58 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 27

1st & 15Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.76

Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 12 yds to the AFA 15

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Dontel James run for 2 yds to the AFA 13

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.08

Dontel James run for 2 yds to the AFA 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.29

Treyvon Green run for no gain to the AFA 11

2nd & 10Penalty+9 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Roland Ladipo) to the AFA 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.32

Dontel James run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 6

2nd & 6Penalty+4 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Roland Ladipo) to the AFA 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.85

Dontel James run for no gain to the AFA 2

2nd & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

KeeSean Johnson 2 Yd pass from Chason Virgil (Kody Kroening Kick)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the AFA 23

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the AFA 29

3rd & 2Rush-5 ydsPPA -0.74

Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 24

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Steve Brosy punt for 36 yds , Tyquwan Glass returns for no gain to the FrsSt 24 FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the FrsSt 30

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 25

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Delvon Hardaway

2nd & 15Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.76

Chason Virgil pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for 20 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Delvon Hardaway

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.57

Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 7 yds to the AFA 48

3rd & 3Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.00

Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 16 yds to the AFA 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.37

Chason Virgil pass complete to Delvon Hardaway for 7 yds to the AFA 25

2nd & 3Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA -0.07

Treyvon Green pass complete to Chason Virgil for 9 yds to the AFA 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Treyvon Green run for 4 yds to the AFA 12

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.35

Dontel James run for no gain to the AFA 12

3rd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 5 yds to the AFA 7

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.01

Chason Virgil run for 2 yds to the AFA 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.79

Chason Virgil run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 8

2nd & 8Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.32

Chason Virgil pass intercepted, touchback. Brodie Hicks return for no gain

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jalen Robinette

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the AFA 23

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jalen Robinette

4th & 7Punt+1 yds

Steve Brosy punt for 39 yds , Tyquwan Glass returns for 1 yd to the FrsSt 39 Tyquwan Glass fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Tyquwan Glass

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Dontel James run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 45

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.46

Jamire Jordan run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 48

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.07

Dontel James run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Dontel James run for 6 yds to the AFA 44

2nd & 4Penalty-5 yds

FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 49

2nd & 9Pass Interception Return-30 ydsPPA -2.28

Chason Virgil pass intercepted Brodie Hicks return for 30 yds to the AFA 49

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Nate Romine run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 45

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Shayne Davern run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 44

3rd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.38

Shayne Davern run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 33

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+33 ydsPPA +3.01

Ronald Cleveland 33 Yd pass from Nate Romine (Luke Strebel Kick)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Justin Rice run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 34

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.00

Jacobi Owens run for 11 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 42

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the AFA 45

3rd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.92

Timothy McVey run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 45

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.76

Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.35

Jacobi Owens run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Jacobi Owens run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.49

Nate Romine pass complete to Timothy McVey for 10 yds to the FrsSt 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Shayne Davern run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 10

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Nate Romine run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 8

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.64

Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Shayne Davern run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 4

2nd & 4Penalty-5 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 9

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Shayne Davern run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 8

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jalen Robinette

4th & 8Field Goal Good+27 ydsPPA -0.70

Luke Strebel 27 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.16

Jamire Jordan run for 14 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson

2nd & 10Interception Return Touchdown-35 ydsPPA -7.88

Patrick Healy 35 Yd Interception Return (Luke Strebel Kick)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.03

Dontel James run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 30

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Aaron Peck

3rd & 11Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.68

Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 14 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Dontel James run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 45

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Dontel James run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 48

3rd & 6Passing Touchdown+52 ydsPPA +5.69

KeeSean Johnson 52 Yd pass from Chason Virgil (Kody Kroening Kick)

3rd & 6Penalty-15 yds

FRESNO ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the FrsSt 20

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Nate Romine run for 2 yds to the AFA 35

2nd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.66

Arion Worthman run for 9 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.96

Arion Worthman run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 48

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.12

Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.23

Arion Worthman sacked by Jeff Camilli for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 48

2nd & 16Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 44

3rd & 12Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 39

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Steve Brosy punt for 20 yds, downed at the FrsSt 19

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Dontel James run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 20

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.29

Dontel James run for no gain to the FrsSt 20

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Delvon Hardaway

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Blake Cusick punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 47

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.08

Tyler Williams run for 17 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Parker Wilson run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 31

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 27

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.79

Timothy McVey run for no gain to the FrsSt 27

4th & 1Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.23

Arion Worthman run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 10

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.60

Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 2

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Arion Worthman 2 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Chason Virgil pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 4 yds to the FrsSt 22

3rd & 6Penalty-9 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (9 Yards) to the FrsSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

AIR FORCE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.79

Dontel James run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 43

2nd & 13Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +3.21

Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 29 yds to the AFA 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 33

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson

2nd & 15Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.17

Dontel James run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 34

3rd & 16Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -1.81

Chason Virgil pass intercepted Weston Steelhammer return for no gain to the AFA 14

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Timothy McVey run for 5 yds to the AFA 19

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Arion Worthman run for 4 yds to the AFA 23

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.57

Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the AFA 29

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the AFA 34

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.86

Shayne Davern run for 1 yd to the AFA 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Arion Worthman run for 6 yds to the AFA 41

2nd & 4Rush+23 ydsPPA +1.83

Arion Worthman run for 23 yds to the FrsSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 31

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.57

Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 30

3rd & 4Rush+20 ydsPPA +0.98

Ronald Cleveland run for 20 yds to the FrsSt 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Arion Worthman run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 5

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Arion Worthman run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 4

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Arion Worthman run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 1

4th & 1Rush-3 ydsPPA -4.21

Jacobi Owens run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 4

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Dontel James run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 7

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Delvon Hardaway

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.09

Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson

4th & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA +0.35

Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Delvon Hardaway

1st & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 4

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.33

Arion Worthman 4 Yd Run (Luke Strebel Kick)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Chason Virgil pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.92

Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 10 yds to the FrsSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

FRESNO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 38

1st & 15Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.24

Chason Virgil sacked by Ryan Watson for a loss of 4 yards to the FrsSt 34

2nd & 19Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.21

Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 7 yds to the FrsSt 41

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Delvon Hardaway

4th & 12Sack-7 ydsPPA +0.09

Chason Virgil sacked by Claude Alexander III for a loss of 7 yards to the FrsSt 34

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.83

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 35

2nd & 11Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.15

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 36

Situational Analysis

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
53%
32 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
46%
13 plays
56%
9 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
70%
10 plays
67%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
100%
1 play
4th
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play

Fresno State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
2 plays
0%
1 play
29%
21 plays
25%
4 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
17%
12 plays
60%
5 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
100%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
100%
1 play
100%
1 play
100%
1 play