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← Back to GamesNov 26, 2016Week 13

House Prediction

Model Margin

Louisville by 14.3

Home Win Probability

Louisville 86%

No market line posted for this game.

elo_v1 · Nov 26, 2016

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
KentuckyKentucky
147101041
LouisvilleLouisville
7177738

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-714-1417-1424-1424-2831-3131-3838-3838-41
LouisvilleKentucky

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20LOUKENLOUKENLOUKENLOUKENLOUKENLOUKENLOUKENLOUKENLOUKENLOUKENLOUKENLOUKENLOUKENLOUTD584ydTD175ydPUNT419ydPUNT620ydPUNT424ydTD786ydTD1270ydPUNT421ydFG1064ydTO414ydTD648ydTD276ydPUNT38ydPUNT36ydEND221ydTD975ydTD575ydFG1360ydTO10ydTD760ydTO543ydPUNT614ydTD555ydTO531ydTO945ydFG760ydTO10yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Kentucky and Louisville
StatisticKentuckyLouisville
Passing17-2916-25
Pass Yards352281
Rush Yards229280
Total Yards581561
Turnovers24
3rd Down10-187-12
Penalties4-414-48
Possession32:3027:30

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Kentucky
passing
Stephen Johnson
16/27, 338 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Stephen Johnson
8 CAR, 83 YDS
receiving
Garrett Johnson
5 REC, 164 YDS, 2 TD
defense
Louisville
passing
Lamar Jackson
16/25, 281 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
rushing
Lamar Jackson
25 CAR, 171 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Cole Hikutini
7 REC, 100 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+42 ydsPPA +3.28

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 42 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +0.65

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Seth Dawkins for 20 yds to the Kent 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the Kent 18

2nd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.53

Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 19

3rd & 7Rushing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +3.21

Lamar Jackson 19 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+75 ydsPPA +6.08

Garrett Johnson 75 Yd pass from Stephen Johnson (Austin MacGinnis Kick)

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.54

Lamar Jackson run for 17 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Traveon Samuel

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.54

Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds to the Lvile 45

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James Quick

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Mason King punt for 55 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Stanley Williams run for no gain to the Kent 20

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Stanley Williams run for 2 yds to the Kent 22

3rd & 8Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.97

Stephen Johnson run for 14 yds to the Kent 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett Johnson

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kent 40

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Blake Bone

4th & 6Punt+10 yds

Grant McKinniss punt for 44 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for 10 yds to the Lvile 26

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.64

Lamar Jackson run for 18 yds to the Lvile 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Brandon Radcliff run for 5 yds to the Lvile 49

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.20

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Cole Hikutini

3rd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.75

Lamar Jackson run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Mason King punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Charles Walker at the Kent 14

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.42

Stanley Williams run for no gain to the Kent 14

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.11

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Tavin Richardson for 6 yds to the Kent 20

3rd & 4Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.37

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 11 yds to the Kent 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Benny Snell Jr. pass incomplete to Dorian Baker

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Tavin Richardson

3rd & 10Pass Reception+43 yds

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Benny Snell Jr. for 28 yds to the LOUISVILLE 41 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Dee Smith) to the Lvile 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive Holding (Cole Mosier) to the Lvile 36

1st & 20Rushing Touchdown+36 ydsPPA +3.92

Stanley Williams 36 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the Lvile 31

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.44

Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the Lvile 38

3rd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.50

Jeremy Smith run for 5 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Seth Dawkins

2nd & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.38

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 16 yds to the Kent 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Jeremy Smith run for 4 yds to the Kent 37

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.52

Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the Kent 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.98

Lamar Jackson sacked by Mike Edwards and Josh Allen for a loss of 8 yards to the Kent 38

2nd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to Jaylen Smith

3rd & 18Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.06

Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 15 yds to the Kent 23

4th & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.13

Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the Kent 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+18 ydsPPA +2.59

Reggie Bonnafon 18 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Blanton Creque Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.19

Jojo Kemp pass complete to Jeff Badet for 14 yds to the Kent 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Jojo Kemp run for 6 yds to the Kent 44

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.98

Jojo Kemp run for 1 yd to the Kent 45

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Dorian Baker

4th & 3Punt+21 yds

Grant McKinniss punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the LOUISVILLE 19 KENTUCKY Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Kash Daniel) to the Lvile 34

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Brandon Radcliff run for 7 yds to the Lvile 41

2nd & 3Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.49

Brandon Radcliff run for 20 yds to the Kent 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.44

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 14 yds to the Kent 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the Kent 24

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Brandon Radcliff run for 3 yds to the Kent 21

3rd & 6Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.02

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 14 yds to the Kent 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.13

Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the Kent 2

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Brandon Radcliff run for 1 yd to the Kent 1

3rd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.40

Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 2

4th & 2Field Goal Good+19 ydsPPA -1.15

Blanton Creque 19 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.70

Stephen Johnson run for 19 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Williams, Stanley rush for 8 yards to the LOUISVILLE38, PENALTY KENTUCKY holding (Asafo-Adjei, George) 10 yards to the KENTUCKY44, NO PLAY.

1st & 20Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 46

2nd & 18Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Stephen Johnson run for 3 yds to the Kent 49

3rd & 15Pass Interception Return-18 ydsPPA -0.51

Stephen Johnson pass intercepted Trumaine Washington return for 18 yds to the Kent 48

1st & 10Sack-12 ydsPPA -3.16

Lamar Jackson sacked by Jordan Jones for a loss of 12 yards to the Lvile 40

2nd & 22Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.45

Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 14 yds to the Kent 46

3rd & 8Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.69

Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 21 yds to the Kent 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.56

Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 26

2nd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Reggie Bonnafon run for 2 yds to the Kent 24

3rd & 9Passing Touchdown+24 ydsPPA +3.61

Cole Hikutini 24 Yd pass from Lamar Jackson (Blanton Creque Kick)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.67

Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the Kent 24

2nd & 10Penalty+13 yds

LOUISVILLE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Stacy Thomas) to the Kent 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+63 ydsPPA +5.05

Garrett Johnson 63 Yd pass from Stephen Johnson (Austin MacGinnis Kick)

1st & 10Sack-11 ydsPPA -1.74

Lamar Jackson sacked by Naquez Pringle and Courtney Miggins for a loss of 11 yards to the Lvile 21

2nd & 21Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.04

Lamar Jackson pass complete to James Quick for 17 yds to the Lvile 38

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 40

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Mason King punt for 57 yds, downed at the Kent 3

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Stanley Williams run for 3 yds to the Kent 6

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Stanley Williams run for 5 yds to the Kent 11

3rd & 2Penalty-6 yds

KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (Cole Mosier) to the Kent 5

3rd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Stanley Williams run for 4 yds to the Kent 9

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Grant McKinniss punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Kent 43

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Lamar Jackson pass incomplete to James Quick

2nd & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.64

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 21 yds to the Kent 22 for a 1ST down

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 6 yds to the Kent 31

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Jeff Badet

3rd & 4Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +3.37

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 28 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.31

Stephen Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 43

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Dorian Baker

3rd & 12Rush+16 ydsPPA +2.85

Stephen Johnson run for 16 yds to the Lvile 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Stanley Williams run for 6 yds to the Lvile 21

2nd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 3 yds to the Lvile 18

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+18 ydsPPA +2.71

Benny Snell Jr. 18 Yd Run (Austin MacGinnis Kick)

1st & 10Rush+61 ydsPPA +3.53

Lamar Jackson run for 61 yds to the Kent 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Kent 12

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the Kent 8

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.28

Jeremy Smith run for 5 yds to the Kent 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Jeremy Smith 3 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Stanley Williams run for 4 yds to the Kent 28

2nd & 6Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.98

Stephen Johnson pass complete to C.J. Conrad for 17 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 4 yds to the Kent 49

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Stanley Williams run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

3rd & 5Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.39

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 15 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.53

Stanley Williams run for 1 yd to the Lvile 34

2nd & 9Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 2 yds to the Lvile 32

3rd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Stanley Williams run for 3 yds to the Lvile 29

4th & 4Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.72

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Garrett Johnson for 11 yds to the Lvile 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Ryan Timmons

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Stephen Johnson run for 2 yds to the Lvile 16

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Ryan Timmons

4th & 8Field Goal Good+35 ydsPPA -0.28

Austin MacGinnis 35 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.67

Lamar Jackson pass intercepted Mike Edwards return for no gain to the Kent 40

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.34

Benny Snell Jr. run for 9 yds to the Kent 49

2nd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.67

Benny Snell Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 48

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.40

Benny Snell Jr. run for 4 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.68

Benny Snell Jr. run for 12 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.55

Benny Snell Jr. run for 1 yd to the Lvile 35

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.90

Benny Snell Jr. run for no gain to the Lvile 35

3rd & 9Passing Touchdown+35 ydsPPA +4.46

Dorian Baker 35 Yd pass from Stephen Johnson (Austin MacGinnis Kick)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.34

Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 40

2nd & 11Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.39

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 13 yds to the Kent 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Lamar Jackson run for 5 yds to the Kent 42

2nd & 5Rush+26 ydsPPA +0.95

Brandon Radcliff run for 26 yds to the Kent 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return-8 ydsPPA -4.43

Lamar Jackson pass intercepted Blake McClain return for 8 yds to the Kent 8

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -0.47

Jojo Kemp run for a loss of 5 yards to the Kent 3

2nd & 15Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.49

Jojo Kemp run for 14 yds to the Kent 17

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.39

Jojo Kemp run for 2 yds to the Kent 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.53

Jojo Kemp run for no gain to the Kent 19

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Jojo Kemp run for 3 yds to the Kent 22

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett Johnson

4th & 7Punt-4 yds

Grant McKinniss punt for 29 yds , Traveon Samuel returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 45

1st & 10Rush+33 ydsPPA +1.63

Lamar Jackson run for 33 yds to the Kent 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Lamar Jackson run for 2 yds to the Kent 20

2nd & 8Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.67

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Brandon Radcliff for 13 yds to the Kent 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Brandon Radcliff run for 6 yds to the Kent 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Lamar Jackson 1 Yd Run (Blanton Creque Kick)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Stephen Johnson pass incomplete to Garrett Johnson

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

Johnson, Stephen pass incomplete to Badet, Jeff, PENALTY LOUISVILLE roughing passer (Brown, DeAngelo) 15 yards to the KENTUCKY40, NO PLAY.

3rd & -5Rush+1 yds

Stanley Williams run for 1 yd to the Kent 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.31

Stephen Johnson run for 16 yds to the Lvile 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.61

Stanley Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the Lvile 46

2nd & 13Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+2 ydsPPA -2.04

Benny Snell Jr. run for 2 yds to the Lvile 44 Benny Snell Jr. fumbled, forced by Chris Williams, recovered by Lvile Chris Williams

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.66

Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the Kent 48

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.20

Lamar Jackson run for 4 yds to the Kent 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the Kent 40

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.62

Lamar Jackson run for 7 yds to the Kent 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.29

Brandon Radcliff run for 13 yds to the Kent 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

LOUISVILLE Penalty, False Start (Tobijah Hughley) to the Kent 25

1st & 15Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.90

Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Kent 28

2nd & 18Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 5 yds to the Kent 23

3rd & 13Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.47

Lamar Jackson pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 14 yds to the Kent 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-1 ydsPPA -4.58

Lamar Jackson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 10 Lamar Jackson fumbled, recovered by Kent Courtney Love

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.85

Jojo Kemp run for 9 yds to the Kent 20

2nd & 1Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +1.99

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Jeff Badet for 29 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.91

Stephen Johnson run for 15 yds to the Lvile 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Jojo Kemp run for 2 yds to the Lvile 34

2nd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Stephen Johnson pass complete to Ryan Timmons for 5 yds to the Lvile 29

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.86

Jojo Kemp run for no gain to the Lvile 29

4th & 3Field Goal Good+47 ydsPPA +0.19

Austin MacGinnis 47 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.67

Lamar Jackson pass intercepted Mike Edwards return for no gain to the Kent 16

Situational Analysis

Kentucky

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
41%
29 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
20%
5 plays
30%
10 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
75%
4 plays
33%
6 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

Louisville

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
44%
34 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
75%
4 plays
60%
5 plays
57%
7 plays
67%
6 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
75%
4 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
50%
2 plays