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← Back to GamesSep 2, 2016Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Baylor by 12.4

Home Win Probability

Baylor 83%

No market line posted for this game.

elo_v1 · Sep 2, 2016

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Northwestern State
00707
BaylorBaylor
24247055

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428425610-024-027-041-055-055-7
BaylorNorthwestern State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NSBAYNSBAYNSBAYNSBAYNSBAYNSBAYNSBAYNSBAYNSBAYNSBAYNSBAYNSBAYNSBAYNSBAYNSBAYPUNT37ydTD659ydPUNT3-21ydFG625ydPUNT3-4ydTD746ydPUNT3-14ydTD855ydPUNT628ydFG755ydPUNT3-7ydTD35ydPUNT34ydTD470ydPUNT31ydTD753ydEND318ydTD962ydPUNT926ydPUNT3-8ydTD845ydTO16ydPUNT32ydPUNT32ydPUNT37ydPUNT3-4ydPUNT35ydPUNT36ydPUNT3-1ydEND418yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Northwestern State and Baylor
StatisticNorthwestern StateBaylor
Passing5-1919-29
Pass Yards31223
Rush Yards47275
Total Yards78498
Turnovers01
3rd Down1-157-15
Penalties7-3712-93
Possession31:4528:15

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Northwestern State
passing
Brooks Haack
3/13, 14 YDS
rushing
De'Mard Llorens
14 CAR, 35 YDS
receiving
Bobby Chan-Chan
1 REC, 20 YDS
defense
Baylor
passing
Seth Russell
14/20, 163 YDS, 4 TD
rushing
Shock Linwood
9 CAR, 97 YDS
receiving
KD Cannon
5 REC, 46 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.48

De'Mard Llorens run for a loss of 1 yard to the NWSt 13

2nd & 11Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.25

De'Mard Llorens run for 8 yds to the NWSt 21

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.30

De'Mard Llorens run for no gain to the NWSt 21

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Eric Piccione punt for 38 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 6 yds to the Bayl 47

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.46

Shock Linwood run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 1Penalty-10 yds

Linwood,Shock rush for 3 yards to the NWST47 (Balthazar, Aust), PENALTY BU holding (Fuller,Kyle) 10 yards to the BU40, NO PLAY.

3rd & 11Rush+42 ydsPPA +4.11

Shock Linwood run for 42 yds to the NWSt 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Seth Russell pass complete to Quan Jones for 5 yds to the NWSt 13

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Seth Russell pass incomplete

3rd & 5Rushing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.90

Terence Williams run for 13 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.07

Chris Jones run for a loss of 5 yards to the NWSt 20

2nd & 15Pass Reception-12 ydsPPA -0.25

Brooks Haack pass complete to Shakeir Ryan for a loss of 12 yards to the NWSt 8 NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declined

3rd & 27Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.01

Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Chris Jones

4th & 27Penalty-4 yds

NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the NWSt 4

4th & 31Punt+10 yds

Eric Piccione punt for 37 yds , Tony Nicholson returns for 10 yds to the NWSt 31

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.52

Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 8 yds to the NWSt 23

2nd & 2Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.12

Shock Linwood run for 16 yds to the NWSt 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.13

Shock Linwood run for 5 yds to the NWSt 2

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.48

Seth Russell run for no gain to the NWSt 2

3rd & 2Penalty-10 yds

Williams,T. rush for 1 yard to the NWST1 (Krolczyk, Zak), PENALTY BU holding (Fuller,Kyle) 10 yards to the NWST12, NO PLAY.

3rd & 12Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.11

Terence Williams run for 6 yds to the NWSt 6

4th & 6Field Goal Good+23 ydsPPA -0.87

Chris Callahan 23 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Brooks Haack pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.49

De'Mard Llorens run for a loss of 4 yards to the NWSt 21

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.08

Brooks Haack pass incomplete

4th & 14Punt+6 yds

Eric Piccione punt for 36 yds , Tony Nicholson returns for 6 yds to the NWSt 27 NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, IF (-5 Yards) to the NWSt 46

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.61

Seth Russell pass complete to Chris Platt for 12 yds to the NWSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +0.37

Shock Linwood run for 18 yds to the NWSt 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.52

Shock Linwood run for 10 yds to the NWSt 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD Cannon

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Shock Linwood run for 2 yds to the NWSt 4

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Seth Russell pass incomplete to KD Cannon, broken up by Caviaan Rachal

4th & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.98

Seth Russell pass complete to Sam Tecklenburg for 4 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-4 ydsPPA -1.55

Chris Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the NWSt 21 Chris Jones fumbled, forced by Patrick Levels, recovered by NWSt Tuff McClain , return for a loss of 3 yards to the NWSt 21

4th & 24Punt0 yds

Eric Piccione punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Tony Nicholson at the Bayl 45

2nd & 24Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.06

Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Tuff McClain

3rd & 24Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.03

Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Tuff McClain

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.09

Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 15 yds to the NWSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Seth Russell pass incomplete to Chris Platt

2nd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.25

Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 11 yds to the NWSt 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the NWSt 25

2nd & 6Penalty-5 yds

BAYLOR Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NWSt 30

2nd & 11Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.92

Terence Williams run for 17 yds to the NWSt 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Terence Williams run for 7 yds to the NWSt 6

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Seth Russell pass incomplete

3rd & 3Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.66

Seth Russell pass complete to KD Cannon for 6 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.10

Brooks Haack pass complete to Bobby Chan-Chan for 20 yds to the NWSt 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

De'Mard Llorens run for 4 yds to the NWSt 34

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.81

Brooks Haack run for no gain to the NWSt 34

3rd & 6Penalty+10 yds

Haack, Brooks pass incomplete to Chan-Chan, Bobb, QB hurry by Levels,Patrick, PENALTY BU pass interference (Reid,Ryan) 10 yards to the NWST44, 1ST DOWN NWST, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

De'Mard Llorens run for a loss of 1 yard to the NWSt 43

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Bobby Chan-Chan, broken up by Verkedric Vaughns

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Brooks Haack pass incomplete

4th & 11Penalty-5 yds

NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NWSt 38

4th & 16Punt+23 yds

Eric Piccione punt for 46 yds , Tony Nicholson returns for 23 yds to the BAYLOR 39 BAYLOR Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Bayl 29

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.77

JaMycal Hasty run for 19 yds to the Bayl 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.07

Seth Russell pass complete to Quan Jones for 18 yds to the NWSt 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.32

JaMycal Hasty run for 14 yds to the NWSt 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Seth Russell pass complete to Chris Platt for 7 yds to the NWSt 13

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.46

JaMycal Hasty run for no gain to the NWSt 13

3rd & 3Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.79

Shock Linwood run for a loss of 3 yards to the NWSt 16

4th & 6Field Goal Good+33 ydsPPA -0.44

Chris Callahan 33 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.45

Ronald Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the NWSt 9

2nd & 12Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.14

Joel Blumenthal run for a loss of 2 yards to the NWSt 7

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.03

Joel Blumenthal pass incomplete to Bobby Chan-Chan

4th & 14Penalty-3 yds

NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, false start (-3 Yards) to the NWSt 4

4th & 17Punt+44 yds

Eric Piccione punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NWSt 5 , Tony Nicholson returns for 44 yds to the NWSt 5

1st & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Seth Russell pass incomplete

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Terence Williams run for no gain to the NWSt 5

3rd & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.76

Seth Russell pass complete to Jordan Feuerbacher for 5 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

De'Mard Llorens run for 1 yd to the NWSt 36

2nd & 9Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.94

De'Mard Llorens run for a loss of 3 yards to the NWSt 33

3rd & 12Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.10

Joel Blumenthal pass complete to De'Mard Llorens for 6 yds to the NWSt 39

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Eric Piccione punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 30

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.03

Seth Russell pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 11 yds to the Bayl 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Shock Linwood run for 4 yds to the Bayl 45

2nd & 6Pass Reception+45 ydsPPA +2.31

Seth Russell pass complete to Lynx Hawthorne for 45 yds to the NWSt 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.51

Seth Russell pass complete to Pooh Stricklin for 10 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Brooks Haack run for no gain to the NWSt 25

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Brooks Haack pass complete to Ronald Green for 6 yds to the NWSt 31

3rd & 4Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.65

Brooks Haack sacked by Taylor Young for a loss of 5 yards to the NWSt 26

4th & 9Punt+27 yds

Eric Piccione punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BAYLOR 42 NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, IF (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 47

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Terence Williams run for 5 yds to the NWSt 48

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the NWSt 45

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.06

Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the NWSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.91

Zach Smith pass complete to Jared Atkinson for 9 yds to the NWSt 34

2nd & 1Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA -0.11

Zach Smith pass complete to Blake Lynch for 19 yds to the NWSt 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.62

Terence Williams run for 14 yds to the NWSt 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Terence Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.90

De'Mard Llorens run for 12 yds to the NWSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

De'Mard Llorens run for 5 yds to the NWSt 38

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

De'Mard Llorens run for 1 yd to the NWSt 39

0th & 5End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

JaMycal Hasty run for 5 yds to the Bayl 43

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.92

JaMycal Hasty run for 6 yds to the Bayl 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.12

Zach Smith pass complete to Quan Jones for 9 yds to the NWSt 42

2nd & 1Penalty-5 yds

Hasty,JaMycal rush for 10 yards to the NWST32 (Welch, Koby), PENALTY BU false start 5 yards to the NWST47, NO PLAY.

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Zach Smith pass incomplete to Quan Jones

3rd & 6Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.21

Zach Smith pass complete to Quan Jones for 11 yds to the NWSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Zach Smith pass incomplete to Quan Jones

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.41

JaMycal Hasty run for 7 yds to the NWSt 29

3rd & 3Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.80

JaMycal Hasty run for 17 yds to the NWSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.53

Zach Smith pass complete to Blake Lynch for 12 yds for a TD, (Chris Callahan KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

De'Mard Llorens run for 4 yds to the NWSt 29

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Tuff McClain, broken up by Jameson Houston

3rd & 6Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.36

Brooks Haack sacked by K.J. Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the NWSt 28

4th & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +2.05

Chris Jones run for 8 yds to the NWSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Chris Jones run for 5 yds to the NWSt 41

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.85

Chris Jones run for 5 yds to the NWSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Chris Jones run for 5 yds to the Bayl 49

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.19

Brooks Haack pass incomplete to Ronald Green

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Brooks Haack pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Eric Piccione punt for 34 yds

1st & 10Penalty-8 yds

Bennema,Zack rush for 10 yards to the BU25 (Balthazar, Aust), PENALTY BU holding 8 yards to the BU7, NO PLAY.

1st & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.11

Zack Bennema pass incomplete, broken up by Darrien Batiste

2nd & 18Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.04

Wyatt Schrepfer run for 1 yd to the Bayl 8

3rd & 17Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.00

Wyatt Schrepfer run for 4 yds to the Bayl 12

4th & 13Penalty-5 yds

BAYLOR Penalty, delay of game (Drew Galitz) to the Bayl 7

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Drew Galitz punt for 38 yds, downed at the Bayl 45

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.50

Ronald Green run for 10 yds to the Bayl 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.69

Ronald Green run for no gain to the Bayl 35

2nd & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.78

Brooks Haack run for a loss of 4 yards to the Bayl 39

3rd & 14Penalty+15 yds

Haack, Brooks pass incomplete to Lazare, Cameron, PENALTY BU pass interference (Wright,Tion) 15 yards to the BU24, 1ST DOWN NWST, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

De'Mard Llorens run for 3 yds to the Bayl 21

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

De'Mard Llorens run for 6 yds to the Bayl 15

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.09

Charles Vaughn run for 1 yd to the Bayl 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.08

Chris Jones run for 11 yds to the Bayl 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Brooks Haack run for 3 yds for a TD, (Eric Piccione KICK)

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+6 ydsPPA -1.85

Wyatt Schrepfer run for 6 yds to the Bayl 42 Wyatt Schrepfer fumbled, forced by Koby Welch, recovered by NWSt Nick Pierotti

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Jared West run for 2 yds to the Bayl 40

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -1.02

Joel Blumenthal run for no gain to the Bayl 40

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Joel Blumenthal pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Eric Piccione punt for 8 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 32

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Preston Heard pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

Wyatt Schrepfer run for no gain to the Bayl 32

3rd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Wyatt Schrepfer run for 2 yds to the Bayl 34

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Drew Galitz punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Shakeir Ryan at the NWSt 25

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Hunter Bedgood run for 1 yd to the NWSt 26

2nd & 9Penalty+5 yds

BAYLOR Penalty, sideline interference (5 Yards) to the NWSt 31

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Hunter Bedgood run for 1 yd to the NWSt 32

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Joel Blumenthal pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt+1 yds

Parker Pastorello punt for 50 yds , Trevor White returns for 1 yd to the Bayl 19

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.53

Wyatt Schrepfer run for no gain to the Bayl 19

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Wyatt Schrepfer run for 1 yd to the Bayl 20

3rd & 9Penalty-5 yds

BAYLOR Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 15

3rd & 14Rush0 ydsPPA -0.05

Wyatt Schrepfer run for no gain to the Bayl 15

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Drew Galitz punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Shakeir Ryan at the NWSt 49

1st & 10Rush-8 ydsPPA -2.63

Nigel Dora run for a loss of 8 yards to the NWSt 41

2nd & 18Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Nigel Dora run for 2 yds to the NWSt 43

3rd & 16Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.84

J.D. Almond pass complete to William Mafi for 11 yds to the Bayl 46

4th & 5Punt+11 yds

Parker Pastorello punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Bayl 22 , Trevor White returns for 11 yds to the Bayl 22

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Wyatt Schrepfer run for 4 yds to the Bayl 26

2nd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.64

Wyatt Schrepfer run for a loss of 1 yard to the Bayl 25

3rd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Wyatt Schrepfer run for 3 yds to the Bayl 28

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Drew Galitz punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Shakeir Ryan at the NWSt 38

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.09

Jared West run for no gain to the NWSt 38

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.79

Jared West run for a loss of 1 yard to the NWSt 37

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Austin Skinner pass incomplete

4th & 11Punt+39 yds

Parker Pastorello punt for 44 yds, downed at the BAYLOR 19 NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, IF (-5 Yards) to the Bayl 24

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.10

Preston Heard run for 13 yds to the Bayl 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Preston Heard run for 4 yds to the Bayl 41

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.84

Preston Heard run for 1 yd to the Bayl 42

3rd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.69

Dwyer Bucey run for no gain to the Bayl 42

Situational Analysis

Northwestern State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
30%
23 plays
2nd
17%
6 plays
29%
7 plays
17%
6 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
0%
1 play
25%
8 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Baylor

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
2 plays
71%
31 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
20%
5 plays
20%
10 plays
50%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
60%
5 plays
0%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
4th
33%
3 plays