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← Back to GamesNov 14, 2015Week 11
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Louisville by 11.3

Home Win Probability

Louisville 81%

No market line posted for this game.

elo_v1 · Nov 14, 2015

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
VirginiaVirginia
71001431
LouisvilleLouisville
31471438

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-73-710-1417-1724-1724-2438-2438-31
LouisvilleVirginia

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20VIRLOUVIRLOUVIRLOUVIRLOUVIRLOUVIRLOUVIRLOUVIRLOUVIRLOULOUVIRLOUVIRLOUTD1575ydFG1171ydPUNT516ydPUNT3-2ydPUNT34ydTD473ydTD369ydTD689ydFG1353ydTD673ydPUNT58ydPUNT416ydPUNT724ydTO314ydMISS513ydTO724ydTD444ydPUNT36ydTD22ydPUNT3-2ydTD896ydTD1175ydEND3-4yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Virginia and Louisville
StatisticVirginiaLouisville
Passing25-4111-22
Pass Yards260159
Rush Yards94266
Total Yards354425
Turnovers12
3rd Down6-174-9
Penalties8-695-53
Possession33:2926:31

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Virginia
passing
Matt Johns
25/41, 260 YDS, 4 TD
rushing
Taquan Mizzell
13 CAR, 47 YDS
receiving
Canaan Severin
8 REC, 116 YDS, 3 TD
Louisville
passing
Kyle Bolin
10/21, 139 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Brandon Radcliff
21 CAR, 146 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Cole Hikutini
4 REC, 59 YDS, 1 TD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Matt Johns pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 6 yds to the Virg 31

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the Virg 33

3rd & 2Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.02

Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 12 yds to the Virg 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Mizzell, T rush right for 1 yard to the VA46 (Burgess, J.), PENALTY VA illegal motion 5 yards to the VA40, NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Virg 43

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Matt Johns pass incomplete to Taquan Mizzell

3rd & 12Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +3.65

Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 22 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.27

Taquan Mizzell run for 10 yds to the Lvile 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Albert Reid run for 3 yds to the Lvile 22

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.50

Matt Johns pass incomplete to Taquan Mizzell, broken up by Jermaine Reve

3rd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.79

Matt Johns run for 8 yds to the Lvile 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Olamide Zaccheaus run for 1 yd to the Lvile 13

2nd & 9Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.30

Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 8 yds to the Lvile 5

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.55

Olamide Zaccheaus run for 4 yds to the Lvile 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.13

Jordan Ellis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 2

2nd & 2Passing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Matt Johns pass complete to Evan Butts for 2 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Brandon Radcliff run for 6 yds to the Lvile 32

2nd & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Kyle Bolin pass complete to Jamari Staples for 8 yds to the Lvile 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Jamari Staples, broken up by Tim Harris

2nd & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.27

Traveon Samuel run for 13 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.56

Reggie Bonnafon run for 10 yds to the Virg 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+11 yds

Bolin, K. slant pass incomplete to Staples, J. (Harris, T), PENALTY VA pass interference (Harris, T) 11 yards to the VA26, 1ST DOWN LOU, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.65

Brandon Radcliff run for 9 yds to the Virg 17

2nd & 1Rush+10 ydsPPA -0.13

Brandon Radcliff run for 10 yds to the Virg 7 for a 1ST down

2nd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Kyle Bolin pass complete to Keith Towbridge for 5 yds to the Virg 3

1st & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.48

Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 8

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Kyle Bolin pass incomplete

4th & 3Field Goal Good+20 ydsPPA -1.08

John Wallace 20 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 1 yd to the Virg 37

2nd & 9Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.31

Matt Johns pass complete to Daniel Hamm for 15 yds to the Lvile 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.56

Daniel Hamm run for 7 yds to the Lvile 41

2nd & 3Rush-7 ydsPPA -2.69

Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 7 yards to the Lvile 48

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Matt Johns pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Nicholas Conte punt for 40 yds, downed at the Lvile 8

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.40

Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 6 LOUISVILLE Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declined

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.09

Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Jamari Staples

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.04

Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Jamari Staples, broken up by Andrew Brown

4th & 12Punt+5 yds

Joshua Appleby punt for 49 yds , Olamide Zaccheaus returns for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.11

Taquan Mizzell run for no gain to the 50 yard line

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Albert Reid run for 4 yds to the Lvile 46

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Matt Johns pass incomplete to Taquan Mizzell

4th & 6Punt+20 yds

Nicholas Conte punt for 39 yds , Jaire Alexander returns for 20 yds to the Lvile 27

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Keith Towbridge

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.53

Kyle Bolin run for 8 yds to the Lvile 35

3rd & 2Rush+45 ydsPPA +3.56

Lamar Jackson run for 45 yds to the Virg 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +2.62

Reggie Bonnafon pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 20 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the Virg 35

2nd & 6Rush+35 ydsPPA +2.94

Albert Reid run for 35 yds to the Lvile 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+30 ydsPPA +2.81

Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 30 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Bailey, D. deep pass incomplete to Staples, J. (Harris, T), PENALTY VA pass interference (Harris, T) 15 yards to the LOU26, 1ST DOWN LOU, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.93

Brandon Radcliff run for 8 yds to the Lvile 34

2nd & 2Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.31

Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds to the Virg 36 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, personal foul (Kwontie Moore) to the Virg 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.67

Brandon Radcliff run for 11 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Keith Towbridge

2nd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.25

Kyle Bolin pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 17 yds to the Virg 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +2.63

Kyle Bolin pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 21 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Matt Johns pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.12

Taquan Mizzell run for 6 yds to the Virg 24

3rd & 4Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.11

Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 1 yd to the Virg 25 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, personal foul (James Burgess) to the Virg 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 7 yds to the Virg 47

2nd & 3Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.81

Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 12 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-4 ydsPPA -1.75

TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 45 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Virg Olamide Zaccheaus

2nd & 14Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.80

Daniel Hamm run for 1 yd to the Lvile 44

3rd & 13Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Matt Johns pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 6 yds to the Lvile 38

4th & 7Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.86

Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 14 yds to the Lvile 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.91

Olamide Zaccheaus run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 28

2nd & 14Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.85

Matt Johns sacked by Devonte Fields for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 33

3rd & 19Penalty-5 yds

VIRGINIA Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 38

3rd & 24Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.75

Matt Johns pass complete to Albert Reid for 9 yds to the Lvile 29

4th & 15Field Goal Good+46 ydsPPA +1.60

Ian Frye 46 yd FG GOOD

0th & 15End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.32

Kyle Bolin pass complete to Keith Towbridge for 26 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Brandon Radcliff run for 2 yds to the Virg 45

2nd & 8Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.53

Kyle Bolin pass complete to Jaylen Smith for 22 yds to the Virg 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Reggie Bonnafon run for 6 yds to the Virg 17

2nd & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.05

Kyle Bolin pass complete to Devonte Peete for 8 yds to the Virg 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rushing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Brandon Radcliff run for 9 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Virg 28

2nd & 7Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.81

Taquan Mizzell run for 14 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.15

Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for no gain to the Virg 42

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.05

Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 40

3rd & 12Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.55

Matt Johns sacked by Sheldon Rankins for a loss of 7 yards to the Virg 33

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Nicholas Conte punt for 43 yds, downed at the Lvile 24

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.49

Traveon Samuel run for 17 yds to the Lvile 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Lvile 36

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.76

Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to James Quick

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to James Quick

3rd & 15Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Brandon Radcliff run for 4 yds to the Lvile 40

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Joshua Appleby punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Olamide Zaccheaus at the Virg 25

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Zaccheaus, O rush right for 1 yard to the VA26, out-of-bounds (Harvey-Clemons), PENALTY VA holding (Hopkins, C) 10 yards to the VA15, NO PLAY, PENALTY LOU personal foul (Harvey-Clemons) 15 yards to the VA30, 1ST DOWN VA, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Matt Johns pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.59

Matt Johns pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 8 yds to the Virg 38

3rd & 2Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.96

Olamide Zaccheaus run for 10 yds to the Virg 48 for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.71

Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 10 yds to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-7 ydsPPA -2.43

Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 7 yards to the Lvile 49 Taquan Mizzell fumbled, recovered by Virg Taquan Mizzell

2nd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Matt Johns pass incomplete

3rd & 17Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.58

Matt Johns pass complete to Daniel Hamm for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 49

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Nicholas Conte punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jaire Alexander at the Lvile 6

1st & 10Penalty-3 yds

LOUISVILLE Penalty, false start (Jamari Staples) to the Lvile 3

1st & 13Rush0 ydsPPA -0.17

Jeremy Smith run for no gain to the Lvile 3

2nd & 13Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.80

Jeremy Smith run for 15 yds to the Lvile 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.72

Kyle Bolin sacked by Kwontie Moore for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 20 Kyle Bolin fumbled, recovered by Virg Micah Kiser , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.19

Taquan Mizzell run for 11 yds to the Lvile 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Matt Johns pass incomplete

2nd & 9Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.59

T.J. Thorpe run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 13

3rd & 13Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.12

Matt Johns run for 6 yds to the Lvile 7

4th & 7Field Goal Missed+24 yds

Ian Frye 24 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to Jaylen Smith

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.26

Brandon Radcliff run for no gain to the Lvile 20

3rd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.96

Kyle Bolin pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 15 yds to the Lvile 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Brandon Radcliff run for 8 yds to the Lvile 43

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.02

Brandon Radcliff run for 3 yds to the Lvile 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Brandon Radcliff run for 3 yds to the Lvile 49

2nd & 7Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.96

Kyle Bolin sacked by Zach Bradshaw for a loss of 5 yards to the Lvile 44 Kyle Bolin fumbled, recovered by Virg Zach Bradshaw , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.69

Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 18 yds to the Lvile 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds to the Lvile 22

2nd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.63

Taquan Mizzell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Lvile 23

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +3.39

Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 23 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Kyle Bolin pass incomplete to James Quick

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Kyle Bolin pass incomplete, broken up by Andrew Brown

3rd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.08

Kyle Bolin pass complete to Cole Hikutini for 6 yds to the Lvile 31

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Joshua Appleby punt for 50 yds , Olamide Zaccheaus returns for no gain to the Virg 2 Olamide Zaccheaus fumbled, forced by James Quick, recovered by Lvile Stacy Thomas VIRGINIA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (T.J. Thorpe) to the Virg 2

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Jeremy Smith run for 1 yd to the Virg 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

L.J. Scott run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.14

Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 29

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Matt Johns pass incomplete to Canaan Severin

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.17

Matt Johns pass incomplete to Olamide Zaccheaus, broken up by Trumaine Washington

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Nicholas Conte punt for 67 yds, downed at the Lvile 4

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Brandon Radcliff run for 7 yds to the Lvile 11

2nd & 3Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.64

Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 4 yards to the Lvile 7

3rd & 7Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.77

Kyle Bolin pass complete to Jamari Staples for 11 yds to the Lvile 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.63

Brandon Radcliff run for a loss of 2 yards to the Lvile 16

2nd & 12Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.63

Kyle Bolin run for 11 yds to the Lvile 27

3rd & 1Rush+31 ydsPPA +3.19

Brandon Radcliff run for 31 yds to the Virg 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Brandon Radcliff run for 6 yds to the Virg 36

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+36 ydsPPA +3.02

Brandon Radcliff run for 36 yds for a TD, (John Wallace KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 7 yds to the Virg 32

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Matt Johns pass incomplete to Keeon Johnson

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Matt Johns pass incomplete to Olamide Zaccheaus

4th & 3Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.52

Matt Johns pass complete to T.J. Thorpe for 11 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion+15 ydsPPA +1.17

Matt Johns pass incomplete to Olamide Zaccheaus for a 1ST down LOUISVILLE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (James Hearns) to the Lvile 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Matt Johns pass incomplete to Keeon Johnson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +1.63

Matt Johns pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 26 yds to the Lvile 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Matt Johns pass incomplete to T.J. Thorpe

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Matt Johns pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.61

Matt Johns run for no gain to the Lvile 16

4th & 10Passing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +3.89

Matt Johns pass complete to Canaan Severin for 16 yds for a TD, (Ian Frye KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.09

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 42

2nd & 11Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.46

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 44

3rd & 13Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.89

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 45

Situational Analysis

Virginia

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
37%
27 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
50%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
55%
11 plays
0%
5 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
57%
7 plays
4th
100%
1 play
100%
2 plays
100%
1 play

Louisville

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
54%
26 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
60%
5 plays
100%
3 plays
63%
8 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
100%
3 plays
0%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play