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← Back to GamesOct 10, 2015Week 6

House Prediction

Model Margin

Mississippi State by 15.8

Home Win Probability

Mississippi State 88%

No market line posted for this game.

elo_v1 · Oct 10, 2015

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
TroyTroy
0014317
Mississippi StateMississippi State
21170745

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014284214-024-031-038-038-738-1445-1445-17
Mississippi StateTroy

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSTROTROMSTROMSTROTROMSTROMSTROMSTROMSTROTROMSTROMSTROTROMSTROMSTROMSTD265ydTD3-7ydPUNT4-16ydPUNT516ydPUNT829ydPUNT33ydTD614ydPUNT36ydFG1350ydPUNT3-8ydTD552ydPUNT610ydPUNT39ydPUNT3-6ydTD455ydEND1-1ydTO30ydDOWNS47ydTD1577ydPUNT30ydTD282ydDOWNS103ydTD149ydPUNT419ydPUNT57ydFG1265ydEND123yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Troy and Mississippi State
StatisticTroyMississippi State
Passing20-3610-15
Pass Yards142211
Rush Yards112125
Total Yards254336
Turnovers20
3rd Down6-192-10
Penalties3-203-28
Possession40:2519:35

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Troy
passing
Dontreal Pruitt
12/17, 90 YDS
rushing
Brandon Burks
15 CAR, 86 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Teddy Ruben
5 REC, 53 YDS
Mississippi State
passing
Nick Fitzgerald
6/7, 141 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Dontavian Lee
5 CAR, 44 YDS
receiving
De'Runnya Wilson
3 REC, 82 YDS, 1 TD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 6 yds to the MisSt 41

2nd & 4Passing Touchdown+59 ydsPPA +4.84

Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 59 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.76

Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 9 yds to the Troy 16

2nd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Andre Flakes run for 1 yd to the Troy 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack0 ydsPPA -0.48

Brandon Silvers sacked by Brandon Bryant for a loss of 13 yards Brandon Silvers fumbled, recovered by MisSt Nelson Adams , return for 0 yards for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)

1st & 10Rush-10 ydsPPA -2.77

Brandon Silvers run for no gain to the Troy 47 TROY Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Troy 37

1st & 20Rush0 ydsPPA -0.57

Brandon Burks run for no gain to the Troy 37

2nd & 20Rush-5 ydsPPA -0.44

Brandon Burks run for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 32

3rd & 25Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.07

Brandon Burks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 31

4th & 26Punt+3 yds

Ryan Kay punt for 44 yds , Fred Ross returns for 3 yds to the MisSt 28

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.32

Dak Prescott pass complete to Donald Gray for 9 yds to the MisSt 37

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Ashton Shumpert run for 3 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Ashton Shumpert run for 2 yds to the MisSt 42

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Ashton Shumpert run for 2 yds to the MisSt 44

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Dak Prescott pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt+38 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Teddy Ruben at the MISSSTATE 23 TROY Penalty, delay of game (Teddy Ruben) to the Troy 18

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 3 yds to the Troy 21

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Brandon Burks run for 2 yds to the Troy 23

3rd & 5Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.11

Brandon Silvers pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 16 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 5 yds to the Troy 44

2nd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.98

Brandon Silvers pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 7 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Brandon Silvers pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.84

Brandon Burks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 48

3rd & 9Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.30

Brandon Silvers sacked by Kivon Coman and A.J. Jefferson for a loss of 5 yards to the Troy 47

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Ryan Kay punt for 53 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred Ross

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the MisSt 23

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Dak Prescott pass incomplete, broken up by Darrin Reddick

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Teddy Ruben at the Troy 24

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Brandon Silvers pass incomplete to Brandon Burks

2nd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.46

Dallas Tidwell pass complete to Brandon Burks for 8 yds to the Troy 32

3rd & 2Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.40

Dallas Tidwell pass complete to Clark Quisenberry for 6 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Dallas Tidwell pass incomplete to Clark Quisenberry, broken up by Jamal Peters

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Dallas Tidwell pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Dallas Tidwell pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt+77 yds

Ryan Kay punt for 39 yds , Fred Ross returns for 77 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Dallas Tidwell pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.65

Andre Flakes run for 9 yds to the Troy 33

3rd & 1Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.91

Andre Flakes run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 30

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Ryan Kay punt for 44 yds, downed at the MisSt 26

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Justin Johnson for 6 yds to the MisSt 32

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.90

Aeris Williams run for no gain to the MisSt 32

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 34

4th & 2Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.59

Logan Cooke run for 11 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Brandon Holloway run for 1 yd to the MisSt 46

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Brandon Holloway, broken up by Cedarius Rookard

3rd & 9Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.89

Nick Fitzgerald run for 12 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 5 yds to the Troy 37

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.36

Ashton Shumpert run for 6 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.06

Brandon Holloway run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 34

2nd & 13Rush0 ydsPPA -0.94

Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the Troy 34

3rd & 13Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.04

Nick Fitzgerald run for 10 yds to the Troy 24

4th & 3Field Goal Good+42 ydsPPA -0.20

Westin Graves 42 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush-6 ydsPPA -1.11

Brandon Burks run for a loss of 6 yards to the Troy 19

2nd & 16Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.15

Dallas Tidwell pass complete to Bryan Holmes for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 17

3rd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.04

Dallas Tidwell pass incomplete to Bryan Holmes, broken up by Ryan Brown

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Ryan Kay punt for 35 yds, downed at the MisSt 48

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.37

Malik Dear run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 47

2nd & 11Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.55

Dontavian Lee run for 7 yds to the Troy 46

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.59

Dontavian Lee run for 5 yds to the Troy 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.48

Nick Fitzgerald run for 13 yds to the Troy 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+28 ydsPPA +2.76

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 28 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Brandon Burks run for 2 yds to the Troy 27

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.43

Brandon Burks run for 7 yds to the Troy 34

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.95

Brandon Burks run for 2 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Andre Flakes run for no gain to the Troy 36

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-8 ydsPPA -1.07

Andre Flakes run for a loss of 8 yards to the Troy 28 Andre Flakes fumbled, recovered by Troy Andre Flakes

3rd & 18Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.07

Dontreal Pruitt run for 7 yds to the Troy 35

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Ryan Kay punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 26

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.28

Brandon Holloway run for 9 yds to the MisSt 35

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.30

Brandon Holloway run for no gain to the MisSt 35

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.73

Brandon Holloway run for no gain to the MisSt 35

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 65 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Sack-13 ydsPPA -0.98

Dontreal Pruitt sacked by Ryan Brown for a loss of 13 yards to the Troy 7

2nd & 23Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.02

Dontreal Pruitt run for 1 yd to the Troy 8

3rd & 22Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.01

Brandon Burks run for 6 yds to the Troy 14

4th & 16Punt-5 yds

Ryan Kay punt for 36 yds , Fred Ross returns for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 45

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Brown for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 5Pass Reception+48 ydsPPA +2.96

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 48 yds to the Troy 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Ashton Shumpert run for 1 yd to the Troy 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Bryan Holmes for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 24

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Dallas Tidwell pass incomplete to Teddy Ruben, broken up by Kivon Coman

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Dallas Tidwell pass incomplete to Teddy Ruben, broken up by Tolando Cleveland

3rd & 10Pass Interception Return-2 ydsPPA +0.13

Dallas Tidwell pass intercepted Beniquez Brown return for 2 yds to the Troy 30

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the Troy 25

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the Troy 21

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.62

Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the Troy 21

4th & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -3.59

Malik Dear run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 23

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

Pruitt, D. pass complete to Burks, Brandon for loss of 3 yards to the TROY20 (Zach Jackson), PENALTY MS 12 men on the field 5 yards to the TROY28, NO PLAY.

1st & 5Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.90

Dontreal Pruitt run for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 24

2nd & 9Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.99

Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 16 yds to the Troy 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Andre Flakes run for 4 yds to the Troy 44

2nd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.24

Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 8 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.80

Dontreal Pruitt run for 8 yds to the MisSt 40

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Brandon Burks run for 2 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.61

Dontreal Pruitt run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 42

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Dontreal Pruitt pass incomplete to Teddy Ruben, broken up by Nelson Adams

3rd & 14Penalty-5 yds

TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 47

3rd & 19Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.87

Dontreal Pruitt run for 10 yds to the MisSt 37

4th & 9Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +3.12

Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 22 yds to the MisSt 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Emanuel Thompson for 4 yds to the MisSt 11

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Dontreal Pruitt run for 5 yds to the MisSt 6

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.37

Brandon Burks run for no gain to the MisSt 6

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.99

Brandon Burks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Dontreal Pruitt run for 5 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Dontavian Lee run for 6 yds to the MisSt 38

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Dontavian Lee run for 3 yds to the MisSt 41

3rd & 1Fumble Recovery (Own)+1 ydsPPA +1.00

Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the MisSt 32 Nick Fitzgerald fumbled, forced by Cedarius Rookard, recovered by MisSt Justin Johnson

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Teddy Ruben at the Troy 18

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.75

Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 8 yds to the Troy 26

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+74 ydsPPA +5.74

Brandon Burks run for 74 yds for a TD, (Jed Solomon KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Dontreal Pruitt pass incomplete to Bryan Holmes

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.11

Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 9 yds to the MisSt 45

3rd & 1Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA +0.94

Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Teddy Ruben for 3 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Dontreal Pruitt run for 6 yds to the MisSt 36

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Brandon Burks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 35

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.87

Dontreal Pruitt run for 4 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Dontreal Pruitt pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Andre Flakes for 2 yds to the MisSt 29

3rd & 8Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.99

Dontreal Pruitt sacked by Tolando Cleveland for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 34

4th & 13Rush-17 ydsPPA -1.16

John Johnson run for a loss of 17 yards to the Troy 49

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+49 ydsPPA +3.76

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 49 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.22

Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 14 yds to the Troy 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Andre Flakes run for 5 yds to the Troy 44

2nd & 5Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.53

Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Deondre Douglas for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 42

3rd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Dontreal Pruitt run for 2 yds to the Troy 44

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Ryan Kay punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 20

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Ashton Shumpert run for no gain to the MisSt 20

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.34

Elijah Staley run for 11 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.33

Elijah Staley pass complete to Malik Dear for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 27

2nd & 14Rush0 ydsPPA -0.26

Elijah Staley run for no gain to the MisSt 27

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Elijah Staley pass incomplete to Aeris Williams

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 42 yds, downed at the Troy 31

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.89

Dontreal Pruitt run for no gain to the Troy 31

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.94

Dontreal Pruitt run for 11 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

Pruitt, D. pass complete to Flakes, Andre for 3 yards to the TROY45 (Grant Harris), PENALTY MS holding (Jamoral Graham) 10 yards to the MS48, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Dontreal Pruitt pass incomplete to Emanuel Thompson

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.56

Dontreal Pruitt pass complete to Bryan Holmes for 7 yds to the MisSt 41

3rd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.30

Dontreal Pruitt run for 8 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.35

Dontreal Pruitt run for 6 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, illegal use of hands (Grant Harris) to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.61

Dontreal Pruitt run for 9 yds to the MisSt 5

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.47

Andre Flakes run for 2 yds to the MisSt 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.87

Andre Flakes run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 4

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Dontreal Pruitt pass incomplete

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Dallas Tidwell pass incomplete to Emanuel Thompson

4th & 4Field Goal Good+21 ydsPPA -1.02

Jed Solomon 21 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+23 ydsPPA +2.00

Dontavian Lee run for 23 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Troy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
50%
2 plays
31%
29 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
50%
4 plays
50%
6 plays
54%
13 plays
0%
4 plays
3rd
71%
7 plays
50%
2 plays
20%
5 plays
60%
5 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
63%
19 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
50%
6 plays
25%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
33%
3 plays