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← Back to GamesSep 19, 2015Week 3

House Prediction

Model Margin

Mississippi State by 12.2

Home Win Probability

Mississippi State 82%

No market line posted for this game.

elo_v1 · Sep 19, 2015

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Northwestern State
067013
Mississippi StateMississippi State
2014141462

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014284256706-013-020-027-634-1341-1355-1362-13
Mississippi StateNorthwestern State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSNSMSNSMSNSMSNSNSMSNSMSNSNSMSNSMSNSMSNSMSNSMSNSTD575ydDOWNS1158ydTD1083ydPUNT3-10ydTD433ydPUNT3-2ydTO243ydPUNT31ydFG44ydTD565ydFG1166ydTD560ydEND212ydTD1472ydTD760ydPUNT414ydTD379ydPUNT32ydTD463ydPUNT3-7ydPUNT37ydPUNT419ydTD774ydEND317yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Northwestern State and Mississippi State
StatisticNorthwestern StateMississippi State
Passing9-1616-18
Pass Yards111372
Rush Yards146275
Total Yards257647
Turnovers02
3rd Down1-133-5
Penalties1-112-20
Possession39:0120:59

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Northwestern State
passing
Stephen Rivers
4/8, 46 YDS
rushing
De'Mard Llorens
10 CAR, 47 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Shakeir Ryan
2 REC, 40 YDS
Mississippi State
passing
Dak Prescott
10/11, 227 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Dontavian Lee
5 CAR, 57 YDS
receiving
Donald Gray
4 REC, 140 YDS, 1 TD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Ashton Shumpert run for 13 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Ashton Shumpert run for 7 yds to the MisSt 45

2nd & 3Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -1.04

Dak Prescott pass complete to Ashton Shumpert for 1 yd to the MisSt 46

3rd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.52

Ashton Shumpert run for 5 yds to the NWSt 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+49 ydsPPA +3.76

Dak Prescott pass complete to Gabe Myles for 49 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

De'Mard Llorens run for 3 yds to the NWSt 28

2nd & 7Rush+19 ydsPPA +2.28

J.D. Almond run for 19 yds to the NWSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.99

Daniel Taylor run for a loss of 4 yards to the NWSt 43

2nd & 14Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.67

Daniel Taylor run for 12 yds to the MisSt 45

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.11

J.D. Almond run for 3 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Chris Jones run for 6 yds to the MisSt 36

2nd & 4Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +0.48

J.D. Almond pass complete to Shakeir Ryan for 24 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Daniel Taylor run for 2 yds to the MisSt 10

2nd & 8Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.44

Daniel Taylor run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 12

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

J.D. Almond pass incomplete to De'Mard Llorens

4th & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -3.38

Tuff McClain run for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 17

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.02

Dak Prescott run for 9 yds to the MisSt 26

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.02

Ashton Shumpert run for no gain to the MisSt 26

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.92

Ashton Shumpert run for 5 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Brandon Holloway run for 4 yds to the MisSt 35

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Ashton Shumpert run for 3 yds to the MisSt 38

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the MisSt 40

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +2.08

Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.45

Dak Prescott pass complete to Donald Gray for 21 yds to the NWSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.43

Dak Prescott pass complete to Malik Dear for 19 yds to the NWSt 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +2.58

Ashton Shumpert run for 17 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.49

De'Mard Llorens run for 1 yd to the NWSt 22

2nd & 9Penalty-11 yds

Almond, J.D. pass incomplete to Eagan, Ed, PENALTY NWST illegal block (Llorens, De'Mar) 11 yards to the NWST11, NO PLAY.

2nd & 20Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.04

J.D. Almond run for 1 yd to the NWSt 12

3rd & 19Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.03

Chris Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the NWSt 11

4th & 20Punt+15 yds

Andy Wickman punt for 37 yds , Fred Ross returns for 15 yds to the NWSt 33

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.27

Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 12 yds to the NWSt 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.46

Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the NWSt 13

2nd & 2Penalty-5 yds

MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NWSt 18

2nd & 7Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.82

Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 17 yds to the NWSt 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Aeris Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.96

Daniel Taylor run for a loss of 3 yards to the NWSt 22

2nd & 13Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.04

J.D. Almond pass complete to Daniel Taylor for 4 yds to the NWSt 26

3rd & 9Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.25

J.D. Almond sacked by Beniquez Brown for a loss of 3 yards to the NWSt 23

4th & 12Punt+47 yds

Andy Wickman punt for 47 yds , Fred Ross returns for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 29

1st & 10Pass Reception+48 ydsPPA +3.11

Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 48 yds to the NWSt 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.01

Dak Prescott sacked by Darius Poullard for a loss of 5 yards to the NWSt 28 Dak Prescott fumbled, recovered by NWSt Darius Poullard , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Stephen Rivers pass incomplete to Ed Eagan, broken up by Cedric Jiles

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

De'Mard Llorens run for 1 yd to the NWSt 29

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.23

Stephen Rivers pass incomplete to Tuff McClain, broken up by Cedric Jiles

4th & 9Punt+22 yds

Andy Wickman punt for 51 yds , Fred Ross returns for 22 yds to the MisSt 39 Fred Ross fumbled, forced by LaAllen Clark, recovered by NWSt Cody Jones

1st & 10Sack-11 ydsPPA -3.07

Stephen Rivers sacked by Chris Jones and A.J. Jefferson for a loss of 11 yards to the 50 yard line

2nd & 21Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.11

Stephen Rivers pass complete to Daniel Taylor for 15 yds to the MisSt 35

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Stephen Rivers pass incomplete

4th & 6Field Goal Good+52 ydsPPA +1.13

Chris Moore 52 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.38

Gabe Myles run for 9 yds to the MisSt 44

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Ashton Shumpert run for 3 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Ashton Shumpert run for 2 yds to the MisSt 49

2nd & 8Pass Reception+45 ydsPPA +2.71

Dak Prescott pass complete to Donald Gray for 45 yds to the MISSSTATE 6 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.05

Gabe Myles run for 6 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.61

Stephen Rivers pass complete to Zach White for 18 yds to the NWSt 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Chris Jones run for 6 yds to the NWSt 49

2nd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.60

Stephen Rivers pass complete to Ed Eagan for 6 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.51

Stephen Rivers run for 7 yds to the MisSt 38

2nd & 3Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.24

De'Mard Llorens run for 12 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Daniel Taylor run for 3 yds to the MisSt 23

2nd & 7Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Stephen Rivers pass complete to Tuff McClain for 7 yds to the MisSt 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Chris Jones run for 7 yds to the MisSt 9

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.44

Daniel Taylor run for no gain to the MisSt 9

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Stephen Rivers pass incomplete to Ed Eagan, broken up by Tolando Cleveland

4th & 3Field Goal Good+26 ydsPPA -0.94

Chris Moore 26 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Brandon Holloway

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.07

Dak Prescott pass complete to Gabe Myles for 9 yds to the MisSt 49

3rd & 1Rush+42 ydsPPA +2.39

Dak Prescott run for 42 yds to the NWSt 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the NWSt 6

2nd & 6Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.53

Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 6 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.93

De'Mard Llorens run for 11 yds to the NWSt 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

De'Mard Llorens run for 1 yd to the NWSt 37

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.90

Joel Blumenthal pass complete to Ed Eagan for 10 yds to the NWSt 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.41

Joel Blumenthal pass complete to Shakeir Ryan for 16 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Daniel Taylor run for 5 yds to the MisSt 41

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Joel Blumenthal run for 2 yds to the MisSt 39

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Joel Blumenthal run for 2 yds to the MisSt 37

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.69

Cody Jones run for 2 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-8 ydsPPA -2.31

Daniel Taylor run for a loss of 8 yards to the MisSt 43

2nd & 18Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

De'Mard Llorens run for 6 yds to the MisSt 37

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.02

De'Mard Llorens run for 1 yd to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST down

3rd & 12Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.29

Joel Blumenthal pass complete to Ed Eagan for 11 yds to the MisSt 26

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.33

Chris Jones run for 7 yds to the MisSt 18

2nd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA -0.15

Daniel Taylor run for 7 yds to the MisSt 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

De'Mard Llorens run for 1 yd to the MisSt 10

2nd & 9Rushing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.75

De'Mard Llorens run for 10 yds for a TD, (Chris Moore KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the MisSt 41

2nd & 9Rush+17 ydsPPA +2.37

Aeris Williams run for 17 yds to the NWSt 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the NWSt 40

2nd & 8Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +1.23

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 25 yds to the NWSt 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.09

Nick Fitzgerald run for 12 yds to the NWSt 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.87

Aeris Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the NWSt 4

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +2.33

Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.42

Chris Jones run for 16 yds to the NWSt 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

Matthew Flores run for no gain to the NWSt 41

2nd & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.35

Joel Blumenthal sacked by DeAndre Ward and Johnathan Calvin for a loss of 7 yards to the NWSt 34

3rd & 17Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Chris Jones run for 5 yds to the NWSt 39

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Andy Wickman punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Gabe Myles at the MisSt 21

1st & 10Rush+24 ydsPPA +2.05

Dontavian Lee run for 24 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.23

Elijah Staley pass complete to Malik Dear for 18 yds to the NWSt 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+37 ydsPPA +3.05

Elijah Staley pass complete to Joe Morrow for 37 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Matthew Flores run for 5 yds to the NWSt 20

2nd & 5Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.65

Chris Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the NWSt 17

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Joel Blumenthal pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Andy Wickman punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Gabe Myles at the MisSt 37

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Darrion Hutcherson for 7 yds to the MisSt 44

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.33

Dontavian Lee run for 4 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Dontavian Lee run for 3 yds to the NWSt 49

2nd & 7Passing Touchdown+49 ydsPPA +4.41

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 49 yds for a TD, (Devon Bell KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Joel Blumenthal pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.43

Matthew Flores run for a loss of 2 yards to the NWSt 23

3rd & 12Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.16

Joel Blumenthal sacked by Jamal Peters for a loss of 5 yards to the NWSt 18

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Andy Wickman punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Gabe Myles at the MisSt 32

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.93

Aeris Williams run for no gain to the MisSt 32

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Elijah Staley run for 7 yds to the MisSt 39

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Elijah Staley pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Logan Cooke punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Wilbur Myers at the NWSt 17

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.68

Nigel Dora run for 11 yds to the NWSt 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.01

Matthew Flores run for a loss of 2 yards to the NWSt 26

2nd & 12Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.57

Nigel Dora run for 9 yds to the NWSt 35

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Matthew Flores run for 1 yd to the NWSt 36

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Andy Wickman punt for 38 yds, downed at the MisSt 26

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.73

Malik Dear run for 19 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.94

Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds to the NWSt 47

2nd & 2Rush+22 ydsPPA +0.63

Dontavian Lee run for 22 yds to the NWSt 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.65

Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Malik Dear for 9 yds to the NWSt 16

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.48

Dontavian Lee run for 4 yds to the NWSt 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.61

Aeris Williams run for 9 yds to the NWSt 3

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.92

Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds for a TD, (Devon Bell KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Daniel Hazlewood run for 7 yds to the NWSt 32

2nd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.72

Matthew Flores run for 8 yds to the NWSt 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Matthew Flores run for 2 yds to the NWSt 42

Situational Analysis

Northwestern State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
48%
29 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
43%
7 plays
67%
6 plays
3rd
25%
4 plays
0%
1 play
0%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
4th
67%
3 plays
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

Mississippi State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play
69%
29 plays
2nd
43%
7 plays
67%
3 plays
100%
7 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
4th
100%
1 play