House Prediction
Model Margin
Penn State by 12
Home Win Probability
Michigan State 22%
Market (Bovada)
Michigan State +7
fitted_v1 · Nov 15, 2025
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Penn State Dominates Michigan State 28-10 in Week 12
Penn State defeated Michigan State 28-10 in Week 12, with the Nittany Lions controlling the game after a competitive first half. The away team covered the 7-point spread in a defensive battle that stayed under the 49-point over-under.
Michigan State struck first with a 57-yard rushing touchdown from E. Tau-Tolliver in the first quarter, but Penn State answered with a 75-yard touchdown pass from E. Grunkemeyer to D. Ross in the second quarter. The Spartans added a field goal to take a 10-7 halftime lead.
Penn State seized control in the fourth quarter, scoring 14 unanswered points to pull away. K. Allen rushed for 42 yards on a critical drive, while the Penn State defense made key stops. D. Ross led all receivers with 79 yards, and Michigan State's A. Milivojevic completed 128 passing yards in the loss.
The game featured significant momentum swings, with 18 lead changes reflecting competitive play throughout. Penn State's fourth-quarter surge proved decisive in the low-scoring affair.
AI-generated recap · Jul 28, 2026
| Team | 1Q | 2Q | 3Q | 4Q | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Penn State | 7 | 7 | 0 | 14 | 28 |
 Michigan State | 7 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
Scoring Timeline
Drive Chart
Box Score
| Statistic | Penn State | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Passing | 8-13 | 17-27 |
| Pass Yards | 127 | 128 |
| Rush Yards | 240 | 101 |
| Total Yards | 367 | 229 |
| Turnovers | 0 | 1 |
| 3rd Down | 2-10 | 1-10 |
| Penalties | 4-45 | 2-20 |
| Possession | 37:19 | 22:41 |
Player Leaders
Player Leaders
Play-by-Play
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush left for 4 yards gain to the PSU29 (#14 M.Bell)
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush left for 2 yards gain to the PSU31 (#13 I.Smith)
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer rush middle for 10 yards loss to the PSU21 fumbled by #17 E.Grunkemeyer at PSU26 recovered by PSU #17 E.Grunkemeyer at PSU24 (#14 M.Bell)
#99 G.Nwosu punt 36 yards to the MSU43 fair catch by #1 O.Kelly at MSU43
Shotgun #4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush right for 57 yards gain to the PSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:46, 1ST DOWN #29 M.Connington kick attempt good (H: #96 R.Eckley, LS: #87 J.Wills)
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass complete short left to #13 K.Allen caught at PSU22, for 5 yards to the PSU30 (#5 J.Hall; #23 D.Snow)
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass complete short right to #8 T.Pena caught at PSU35, for 7 yards to the PSU37 (#23 D.Snow), 1ST DOWN
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush middle for 9 yards gain to the PSU46 (#19 A.Smith)
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer rush middle for 0 yards to the PSU46 (#44 C.Williams; #91 A.VanSumeren)
#13 K.Allen rush middle for 1 yard gain to the PSU47 (#14 M.Bell; #91 A.VanSumeren), 1ST DOWN
Shotgun #10 N.Singleton rush right for 4 yards gain to the MSU49 (#23 D.Snow)
Shotgun #10 N.Singleton rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU46 (#88 R.Buckley)
Shotgun #10 N.Singleton rush left for 1 yard gain to the MSU45 (#93 J.Satchell; #10 W.Matthews)
#17 E.Grunkemeyer pass complete short right to #8 T.Pena caught at MSU45, for 7 yards to the MSU38 (#43 M.Spencer), 1ST DOWN
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass complete short middle to #8 T.Pena caught at MSU19, for 25 yards to the MSU13 (#19 A.Smith), 1ST DOWN
No Huddle-Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MSU08 (#16 G.Kelly; #43 M.Spencer)
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:50, 1ST DOWN #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #14 R.Thompson, LS: #48 T.Duzansky) #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #14 R.Thompson, LS: #48 T.Duzansky) PENALTY #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #14 R.Thompson, LS: #48 T.Duzansky) PENALTY PSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #14 R.Thompson, LS: #48 T.Duzansky) PENALTY PSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting MSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct offsetting
Shotgun #4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU27 (#24 A.Campbell; #50 A.Ford Jr.)
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #1 O.Kelly caught at MSU31, for 4 yards to the MSU31, out of bounds at MSU31
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short right to #6 N.Marsh thrown to MSU47 QB hurried by #0 D.DeLuca
#96 R.Eckley punt 48 yards to the PSU21 #8 T.Pena return 19 yards to the PSU40 (#34 K.Majeed) PENALTY PSU Holding (#33 D.Dennis-Sutton) 10 yards from PSU21 to PSU11
Shotgun #10 N.Singleton rush middle for 3 yards gain to the PSU14 (#91 A.VanSumeren; #99 Q.Dunnigan)
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass incomplete short left to #10 N.Singleton thrown to PSU11 QB hurried by #93 J.Satchell
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass incomplete short left to #85 L.Reynolds thrown to PSU32 QB hurried by #99 Q.Dunnigan
#99 G.Nwosu punt 39 yards to the MSU47 #1 O.Kelly return 8 yards to the PSU45 (#9 E.Washington II)
#5 M.Frazier rush left for 5 yards gain to the PSU40 (#0 D.DeLuca; #24 A.Campbell)
Shotgun #5 M.Frazier rush middle for 3 yards gain to the PSU37 (#24 A.Campbell)
Shotgun #5 M.Frazier rush middle for 1 yard loss to the PSU38 (#16 K.Mack; #0 D.DeLuca)
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short right to #13 C.McCray thrown to PSU40 broken up by #5 D.Dixson QB hurried by #33 D.Dennis-Sutton, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush right for 8 yards gain to the PSU46 (#10 W.Matthews)
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush middle for 3 yards gain to the PSU49 (#91 A.VanSumeren; #19 A.Smith), 1ST DOWN
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush left for 8 yards gain to the MSU43 (#99 Q.Dunnigan)
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass incomplete short left to #1 K.Hudson thrown to MSU25 broken up by #19 A.Smith
Shotgun #10 N.Singleton rush right for 1 yard gain to the MSU42 (#99 Q.Dunnigan; #19 A.Smith)
#10 N.Singleton rush middle for 0 yards to the MSU42 (#10 W.Matthews; #16 G.Kelly), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short middle to #4 E.Tau-Tolliver caught at MSU39, for 4 yards to the MSU46 (#50 A.Ford Jr.)
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #6 N.Marsh caught at MSU49, for 3 yards to the MSU49 (#5 D.Dixson)
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #4 E.Tau-Tolliver caught at PSU32, for 32 yards to the PSU19 (#7 Z.Tracy), 1ST DOWN
#4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush middle for 11 yards gain to the PSU08 (#5 D.Dixson; #32 K.Wylie), 1ST DOWN
#5 M.Frazier rush middle for 1 yard loss to the PSU09 (#32 K.Wylie; #5 D.Dixson)
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #81 M.Masunas caught at PSU04, for 5 yards to the PSU04 (#16 K.Mack)
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic sacked for loss of 2 yards to the PSU06 (#32 K.Wylie)
#29 M.Connington field goal attempt from 24 yards GOOD (H: #96 R.Eckley, LS: #87 J.Wills), clock 08:40
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass complete short middle to #5 D.Ross caught at PSU31, for 75 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:30, 1ST DOWN #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #14 R.Thompson, LS: #48 T.Duzansky)
Shotgun #4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush left for 0 yards to the MSU25 (#39 T.Blanding; #36 Z.Fisher)
#11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short right to #4 E.Tau-Tolliver caught at MSU17, for 1 yard to the MSU26 (#2 A.Collins)
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #1 O.Kelly caught at MSU31, for 6 yards to the MSU32 (#9 E.Washington II)
#96 R.Eckley punt 9 yards to the MSU41 blocked by #33 D.Dennis-Sutton
Shotgun #10 N.Singleton rush left for 1 yard loss to the MSU42 (#10 W.Matthews)
Shotgun #10 N.Singleton rush middle for 8 yards gain to the MSU34 (#19 A.Smith)
Shotgun #10 N.Singleton rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU32 (#13 I.Smith; #5 J.Hall)
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush middle for 2 yards gain to the MSU30 (#43 M.Spencer; #16 G.Kelly), 1ST DOWN
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass complete short left to #13 K.Allen caught at MSU34, for 5 yards to the MSU25 (#23 D.Snow)
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass incomplete short left to #10 N.Singleton thrown to MSU25
Shotgun #10 N.Singleton rush right for 3 yards gain to the MSU22 (#14 M.Bell; #43 M.Spencer)
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer sacked for loss of 6 yards to the MSU28 (#16 G.Kelly, #9 J.Thompson), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic rush middle for 16 yards gain to the MSU44 (#24 A.Campbell), 1ST DOWN
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short middle to #4 E.Tau-Tolliver caught at MSU47, for 4 yards to the MSU48 (#24 A.Campbell)
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short right to #6 N.Marsh thrown to PSU40 QB hurried by #44 J.Harvey
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete deep right to #6 N.Marsh thrown to PSU15
#96 R.Eckley punt 41 yards to the PSU11
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass complete short right to #8 T.Pena caught at PSU08, for 1 yard loss to the PSU10 (#9 J.Thompson; #34 K.Majeed)
#1 O.Kelly rush right for 9 yards gain to the MSU34 (#0 D.DeLuca)
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short middle to #81 M.Masunas caught at MSU41, for 14 yards to the MSU48 (#0 D.DeLuca), 1ST DOWN
#7 B.Tullis rush middle for 6 yards gain to the PSU46 (#7 Z.Tracy)
#11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete deep right to #6 N.Marsh thrown to PSU10
Shotgun #5 M.Frazier rush middle for 3 yards loss to the PSU49 (#6 Z.Wheatley)
#96 R.Eckley punt 40 yards to the PSU09 fair catch by #8 T.Pena at PSU09
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush middle for 4 yards gain to the PSU13 (#91 A.VanSumeren)
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush middle for 7 yards gain to the PSU20 (#91 A.VanSumeren; #10 W.Matthews), 1ST DOWN
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush left for 0 yards to the PSU20 (#9 J.Thompson)
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass incomplete short middle to #85 L.Reynolds thrown to PSU25 broken up by #10 W.Matthews
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer sacked for loss of 6 yards to the PSU14 (#93 J.Satchell, #41 D.Santiago)
#99 G.Nwosu punt 68 yards to the MSU18 #1 O.Kelly return 4 yards to the MSU22 (#9 E.Washington II)
Shotgun #4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush middle for 3 yards gain to the MSU25 (#24 A.Campbell)
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short right to #6 N.Marsh thrown to MSU30 QB hurried by #6 Z.Wheatley
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short middle to #6 N.Marsh thrown to MSU40
#96 R.Eckley punt 58 yards to the PSU17 #8 T.Pena return 0 yards to the PSU17 (#30 A.Grose)
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer rush middle for 5 yards gain to the PSU22, End Of Play
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush middle for 12 yards gain to the PSU34 (#5 J.Hall), 1ST DOWN
Shotgun #10 N.Singleton rush left for 14 yards gain to the PSU48 (#14 M.Bell), 1ST DOWN
Shotgun #10 N.Singleton rush middle for 5 yards gain to the MSU47 (#88 R.Buckley)
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU46 (#93 J.Satchell)
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU45 (#9 J.Thompson; #10 W.Matthews)
#99 G.Nwosu punt 41 yards to the MSU04
Shotgun #5 M.Frazier rush middle for 9 yards gain to the MSU13 (#16 K.Mack; #6 Z.Wheatley)
#5 M.Frazier rush right for 4 yards gain to the MSU17 (#24 A.Campbell), 1ST DOWN
#5 M.Frazier rush left for 11 yards gain to the MSU28 (#32 K.Wylie), 1ST DOWN
#11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #6 N.Marsh caught at MSU27, for 2 yards to the MSU30 (#2 A.Collins), out of bounds
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short middle to #81 M.Masunas caught at MSU40, for 10 yards to the MSU40 (#10 D.Lane), 1ST DOWN
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic sacked for loss of 7 yards to the MSU33 (#33 D.Dennis-Sutton)
PENALTY MSU Illegal Snap (#51 M.Gulbin) 5 yards from MSU33 to MSU28. NO PLAY
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic sacked for loss of 8 yards to the MSU20 (#33 D.Dennis-Sutton)
Shotgun #4 E.Tau-Tolliver rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MSU26 (#54 X.Gilliam)
#96 R.Eckley punt 55 yards to the PSU19 #8 T.Pena return 5 yards to the PSU24 (#20 K.Williams)
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer rush middle for 9 yards gain to the PSU33, End Of Play
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush middle for 2 yards gain to the PSU35 (#5 J.Hall; #91 A.VanSumeren), 1ST DOWN
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush right for 6 yards gain to the PSU41 (#10 W.Matthews; #91 A.VanSumeren)
Shotgun #10 N.Singleton rush middle for 4 yards gain to the PSU45 (#99 Q.Dunnigan), 1ST DOWN
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush middle for 12 yards gain to the MSU43 (#43 M.Spencer; #14 M.Bell), 1ST DOWN
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer rush right for 4 yards gain to the MSU39 (#13 I.Smith; #16 G.Kelly)
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush left for 6 yards gain to the MSU33 (#23 D.Snow), 1ST DOWN
Shotgun #10 N.Singleton rush right for 8 yards gain to the MSU25 (#14 M.Bell)
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush middle for 6 yards gain to the MSU19 (#10 W.Matthews), 1ST DOWN
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer rush right for 10 yards gain to the MSU09, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush middle for 4 yards gain to the MSU05 (#93 J.Satchell)
Shotgun #10 N.Singleton rush middle for 1 yard gain to the MSU04 (#13 I.Smith; #16 G.Kelly)
Shotgun #17 E.Grunkemeyer pass complete short middle to #5 D.Ross caught at MSU07, for 4 yards to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:32 #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #14 R.Thompson, LS: #48 T.Duzansky)
#11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #4 E.Tau-Tolliver caught at MSU22, for 16 yards to the MSU41 (#6 Z.Wheatley), 1ST DOWN
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short middle to #4 E.Tau-Tolliver caught at MSU43, for 4 yards to the MSU45 (#24 A.Campbell)
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #1 O.Kelly caught at MSU50, for 5 yards to the MSU50 (#5 D.Dixson; #16 K.Mack)
PENALTY PSU Roughing The Passer (#36 Z.Fisher) 15 yards from MSU50 to PSU35, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete deep left to #13 C.McCray thrown to PSU07, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY PSU Roughing The Passer (#33 D.Dennis-Sutton) 15 yards from PSU35 to PSU20, 1ST DOWN
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic sacked for loss of 10 yards to the PSU30 (#7 Z.Tracy), fumble by #11 A.Milivojevic recovered by PSU #5 D.Dixson at PSU30, End Of Play
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush middle for 2 yards gain to the PSU32 (#2 A.West; #23 D.Snow)
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush middle for 42 yards gain to the MSU26 (#14 M.Bell), 1ST DOWN
Shotgun #13 K.Allen rush left for 26 yards gain to the MSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:07, 1ST DOWN #94 R.Barker kick attempt good (H: #14 R.Thompson, LS: #48 T.Duzansky)
PENALTY PSU Delay Of Game 5 yards from MSU03 to MSU08. NO PLAY
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short middle to #12 J.Velling caught at MSU31, for 6 yards to the MSU31 (#16 K.Mack)
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #4 E.Tau-Tolliver caught at MSU24, for 5 yards to the MSU36 (#2 A.Collins), 1ST DOWN
No Huddle-Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short right to #1 O.Kelly thrown to MSU46 QB hurried by #32 K.Wylie
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass complete short left to #4 E.Tau-Tolliver caught at MSU38, for 7 yards to the MSU43 (#5 D.Dixson)
PENALTY MSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#4 E.Tau-Tolliver) 15 yards from MSU43 to MSU28. NO PLAY
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic pass incomplete short middle to #8 E.Boyd thrown to MSU45 broken up by #9 E.Washington II QB hurried by #45 E.White
Shotgun #11 A.Milivojevic sacked for loss of 9 yards to the MSU19 (#24 A.Campbell, #16 K.Mack), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
Kneel down by Penn St. at MSU21 for loss of 2 yards
Kneel down by Penn St. at MSU22 for loss of 1 yard