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← Back to GamesDec 21, 2024Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Montana State by 11.5

Home Win Probability

Montana State 74%

Market (ESPN Bet)

Montana State -9.5

Edge: Montana State -9.5 (2.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Dec 21, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
South Dakota
773017
Montana State
14107031

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014287-07-714-721-1424-1431-1431-17
Montana StateSouth Dakota

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSSDMSSDMSSDMSSDMSSDSDMSSDMSSDMSSDMSSDMSSDMSTD665ydTD589ydPUNT620ydPUNT31ydTD647ydTD375ydTD1274ydPUNT59ydFG1564ydEND1-1ydPUNT37ydTD580ydPUNT729ydPUNT3-13ydFG620ydPUNT32ydDOWNS1377ydPUNT616ydDOWNS750ydPUNT34ydTO10ydEND3-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing South Dakota and Montana State
StatisticSouth DakotaMontana State
Passing20-298-17
Pass Yards236134
Rush Yards135222
Total Yards371356
Turnovers10
3rd Down3-107-15
Penalties5-212-5
Possession27:5632:04

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

South Dakota
passing
Aidan Bouman
20/29, 236 YDS
rushing
Travis Theis
15 CAR, 116 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Travis Theis
7 REC, 80 YDS
Montana State
passing
Tommy Mellott
8/17, 134 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Tommy Mellott
17 CAR, 125 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Taco Dowler
4 REC, 94 YDS, 1 TD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.77

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Taco Dowler for 20 yds to the SDAK 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Scottre Humphrey run for 4 yds to the SDAK 41

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Tommy Mellott run for 4 yds to the SDAK 37

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.75

Tommy Mellott run for 2 yds to the SDAK 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.53

Adam Jones run for 1 yd to the SDAK 34

2nd & 9Passing Touchdown+34 ydsPPA +3.50

Taco Dowler 34 Yd pass from Tommy Mellott (Myles Sansted Kick)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Travis Theis run for 1 yd to the SDAK 12

2nd & 9Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.22

Aidan Bouman pass complete to Carter Bell for 16 yds to the SDAK 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Travis Theis run for 2 yds to the SDAK 30

2nd & 8Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.09

Aidan Bouman pass complete to Quaron Adams for 15 yds to the SDAK 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+55 ydsPPA +4.28

Travis Theis 55 Yd Run (Will Leyland Kick)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Tommy Mellott run for 3 yds to the MTST 28

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Scottre Humphrey run for 6 yds to the MTST 34

3rd & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.88

Ty McCullouch run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTST 32

4th & 3Penalty+5 yds

South Dakota Penalty, Defensive Offside (Wade Abrams) to the MTST 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.40

Adam Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTST 35

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete to Taco Dowler

3rd & 12Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.61

Tommy Mellott run for 10 yds to the MTST 45

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Brendan Hall punt for 55 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Travis Theis run for 4 yds to the SDAK 24

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Travis Theis run for 2 yds to the SDAK 26

3rd & 4Penalty-5 yds

South Dakota Penalty, False Start (Bryce Henderson) to the SDAK 21

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Aidan Bouman pass incomplete to Javion Phelps

4th & 9Punt+11 yds

Tyler Ebel punt for 37 yds , Taco Dowler returns for 11 yds to the SDAK 47

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Tommy Mellott run for 5 yds to the SDAK 42

2nd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.58

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 8 yds to the SDAK 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Scottre Humphrey run for 1 yd to the SDAK 33

2nd & 9Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +1.56

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Taco Dowler for 28 yds to the SDAK 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete to Ryan Lonergan

2nd & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.44

Tommy Mellott 5 Yd Run (Myles Sansted Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Aidan Bouman pass complete to Travis Theis for 12 yds to the SDAK 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.57

Aidan Bouman pass complete to JJ Galbreath for 18 yds to the MTST 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+45 ydsPPA +3.48

Charles Pierre Jr. 45 Yd Run (Will Leyland Kick)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Adam Jones run for 6 yds to the MTST 32

2nd & 4Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.39

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Lonyatta Alexander Jr. for 13 yds to the MTST 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Adam Jones run for 3 yds to the MTST 48

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 6 yds to the SDAK 46

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.03

Adam Jones run for 4 yds to the SDAK 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete to Rohan Jones

2nd & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.70

Scottre Humphrey run for 8 yds to the SDAK 34

3rd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.72

Tommy Mellott run for 5 yds to the SDAK 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.22

Adam Jones run for 13 yds to the SDAK 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Scottre Humphrey run for 3 yds to the SDAK 13

2nd & 7Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.74

Tommy Mellott run for 11 yds to the SDAK 2 for a 1ST down South Dakota Penalty, Defensive Holding (Shahid Barros) to the SDAK 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Scottre Humphrey 1 Yd Run (Myles Sansted Kick)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Travis Theis run for 6 yds to the SDAK 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.99

Aidan Bouman pass complete to JJ Galbreath for 9 yds to the SDAK 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.12

Aidan Bouman sacked by Kenneth Eiden IV for a loss of 7 yards to the SDAK 33

2nd & 17Penalty-5 yds

South Dakota Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SDAK 28

2nd & 22Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.06

Aidan Bouman pass complete to Travis Theis for 6 yds to the SDAK 34

3rd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Aidan Bouman pass incomplete to Charles Pierre Jr.

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Tyler Ebel punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Taco Dowler at the MTST 25

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Tommy Mellott run for 4 yds to the MTST 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.63

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 13 yds to the MTST 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete to Adam Jones

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Adam Jones run for 4 yds to the MTST 46

3rd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +2.24

Tommy Mellott run for 7 yds to the SDAK 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.64

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Taco Dowler for 12 yds to the SDAK 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.56

Tommy Mellott run for 8 yds to the SDAK 27

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.71

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete to Ty McCullouch

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.43

Tommy Mellott run for 3 yds to the SDAK 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Scottre Humphrey run for 5 yds to the SDAK 19

2nd & 5Penalty-5 yds

Montana State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SDAK 24

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.58

Adam Jones run for 11 yds to the SDAK 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete to Taco Dowler

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Tommy Mellott run for 2 yds to the SDAK 11

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

4th & 8Field Goal Good+28 yds

Myles Sansted 28 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDAK 24

0th & 10End of Half-1 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Keyondray Jones-Logan run for 1 yd to the SDAK 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Aidan Bouman pass complete to Travis Theis for 6 yds to the SDAK 32

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Aidan Bouman pass incomplete to Carter Bell

4th & 3Punt+8 yds

Tyler Ebel punt for 56 yds , Taco Dowler returns for 8 yds to the MTST 20

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Scottre Humphrey run for 4 yds to the MTST 24

2nd & 6Rush+26 ydsPPA +2.63

Tommy Mellott run for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Adam Jones run for 6 yds to the SDAK 44

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Adam Jones run for 3 yds to the SDAK 41

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+41 ydsPPA +3.88

Tommy Mellott 41 Yd Run (Myles Sansted Kick)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Travis Theis run for 7 yds to the SDAK 32

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Travis Theis run for 2 yds to the SDAK 34

3rd & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.44

Travis Theis run for 7 yds to the SDAK 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Aidan Bouman pass complete to Carter Bell for 13 yds to the MTST 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Aidan Bouman pass incomplete to Charles Pierre Jr.

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Aidan Bouman pass incomplete to JJ Galbreath

3rd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.83

Travis Theis run for no gain to the MTST 46

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Tyler Ebel punt for 46 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Scottre Humphrey run for 1 yd to the MTST 21

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Scottre Humphrey run for 1 yd to the MTST 22

3rd & 8Sack-15 ydsPPA -0.29

Tommy Mellott sacked by Nick Gaes for a loss of 15 yards to the MTST 7 Montana State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Tommy Mellott) to the MTST 7

4th & 23Punt0 yds

Brendan Hall punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Carter Bell at the MTST 48

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Aidan Bouman pass incomplete to JJ Galbreath

2nd & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.08

Aidan Bouman pass complete to Carter Bell for 24 yds to the MTST 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Bouman, Aidan pass incomplete, PENALTY SODAKOTA illegal formation 5 yards to the MONTANAST29, NO PLAY.

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Aidan Bouman pass incomplete to Carter Bell

2nd & 15Sack-9 ydsPPA -2.61

Aidan Bouman sacked by Brody Grebe for a loss of 9 yards to the MTST 38

3rd & 24Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.95

Aidan Bouman pass complete to Travis Theis for 10 yds to the MTST 28

4th & 14Field Goal Good+46 yds

Will Leyland 46 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Adam Jones run for 2 yds to the MTST 18

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete to Lonyatta Alexander Jr.

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Brendan Hall punt for 61 yds, fair catch by Keyondray Jones-Logan at the SDAK 21

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Travis Theis run for 6 yds to the SDAK 27

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.60

Travis Theis run for 6 yds to the SDAK 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Aidan Bouman pass complete to L.J. Phillips Jr. for 7 yds to the SDAK 40

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.75

Charles Pierre Jr. run for 2 yds to the SDAK 42

3rd & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.72

Travis Theis run for 9 yds to the MTST 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +1.04

Aidan Bouman pass complete to JJ Galbreath for 23 yds to the MTST 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Aidan Bouman pass complete to JJ Galbreath for 6 yds to the MTST 20

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Travis Theis run for 3 yds to the MTST 17

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.16

Travis Theis run for 6 yds to the MTST 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Charles Pierre Jr. run for 4 yds to the MTST 7

2nd & 6Rush-11 ydsPPA -1.34

TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the MTST 18

3rd & 17Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Aidan Bouman pass complete to Travis Theis for 4 yds to the MTST 14

4th & 13Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA -3.00

Aidan Bouman pass complete to JJ Galbreath for 12 yds to the MTST 2

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Adam Jones run for 2 yds to the MTST 4

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.19

Adam Jones run for 7 yds to the MTST 11

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.25

Adam Jones run for 2 yds to the MTST 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Scottre Humphrey run for 1 yd to the MTST 14

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Adam Jones run for 5 yds to the MTST 19

3rd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.27

Adam Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTST 18

4th & 5Punt+5 yds

Brendan Hall punt for 57 yds , Carter Bell returns for 5 yds to the SDAK 30

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.00

Aidan Bouman pass complete to Jack Martens for 8 yds to the SDAK 38

2nd & 2Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.28

Aidan Bouman pass complete to Travis Theis for 18 yds to the MTST 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +0.79

Aidan Bouman pass complete to Travis Theis for 24 yds to the MTST 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Aidan Bouman pass incomplete to Jack Martens

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Aidan Bouman pass complete to Charles Pierre Jr. for 5 yds to the MTST 15

3rd & 5Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.24

TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the MTST 20

4th & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.80

Aidan Bouman pass incomplete to Carter Bell

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.70

Adam Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTST 18

2nd & 12Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.12

Adam Jones run for 2 yds to the MTST 20

3rd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Tommy Mellott run for 4 yds to the MTST 24

4th & 6Punt+4 yds

Brendan Hall punt for 56 yds , Carter Bell returns for 4 yds to the SDAK 24

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)0 ydsPPA -0.85

Aidan Bouman pass complete to JJ Galbreath for no gain JJ Galbreath fumbled, recovered by MTST Brody Grebe

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.54

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDAK 25

2nd & 11Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SDAK 26

3rd & 12Rush0 ydsPPA -0.95

TEAM run for no gain to the SDAK 26

Situational Analysis

South Dakota

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
54%
24 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
33%
3 plays
40%
5 plays
83%
6 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
0%
1 play
0%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play
0%
1 play

Montana State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
31%
26 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
71%
7 plays
69%
13 plays
0%
3 plays
3rd
86%
7 plays
50%
2 plays
0%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
4th