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← Back to GamesSep 21, 2024Week 4

House Prediction

Model Margin

Montana State by 35.2

Home Win Probability

Montana State 96%

Market (ESPN Bet)

Montana State -49.5

Edge: Mercyhurst +49.5 (14.3 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 21, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Mercyhurst
006713
Montana State
102114752

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842563-010-024-031-038-045-1352-13
Montana StateMercyhurst

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSMERMSMERMSMERMSMERMERMSMERMERMSMERMSMERMSMERMSMERFG1270ydPUNT36ydTD857ydPUNT32ydPUNT3-1ydDOWNS732ydTD657ydTD3-1ydDOWNS1055ydTD680ydEND2-13ydPUNT525ydTD885ydPUNT32ydTD210ydDOWNS46ydTD255ydTD1875ydTD1074ydEND1559yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Mercyhurst and Montana State
StatisticMercyhurstMontana State
Passing28-4415-19
Pass Yards213246
Rush Yards20256
Total Yards233502
Turnovers01
3rd Down6-184-6
Penalties4-204-44
Possession32:5627:04

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Mercyhurst
passing
Adam Urena
28/44, 213 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Ayron Rodriguez
15 CAR, 42 YDS
receiving
Cameron Barmore
7 REC, 95 YDS
Montana State
passing
Tommy Mellott
14/18, 214 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Colson Coon
10 CAR, 102 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Adam Jones
3 REC, 72 YDS, 1 TD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.89

Tommy Mellott run for 8 yds to the MTST 32

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Scottre Humphrey run for 6 yds to the MTST 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-6 ydsPPA -1.12

Adam Jones run for a loss of 6 yards to the MTST 33 Adam Jones fumbled, recovered by MTST Adam Jones A. Jones return for 1 yds

3rd & 15Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +3.11

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ryan King for 15 yds to the MTST 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Scottre Humphrey run for 5 yds to the MERC 47

2nd & 5Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.93

Scottre Humphrey run for 12 yds to the MERC 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +0.65

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Lonyatta Alexander Jr. for 27 yds to the MERC 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Scottre Humphrey run for 5 yds to the MERC 3

2nd & 3Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.67

Rohan Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the MERC 7

3rd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Scottre Humphrey run for 1 yd to the MERC 6

4th & 6Field Goal Good+23 yds

Myles Sansted 23 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Mercyhurst Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the MERC 20

1st & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Ayron Rodriguez run for 2 yds to the MERC 22

2nd & 13Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.10

Adam Urena pass complete to Joe Kerbacher for 6 yds to the MERC 28

3rd & 7Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Adam Urena pass complete to Joe Kerbacher for 3 yds to the MERC 31

4th & 4Punt+12 yds

Hunter Pittman punt for 38 yds , Taco Dowler returns for 12 yds to the MTST 43

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Scottre Humphrey run for 4 yds to the MTST 47

2nd & 6Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.49

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Adam Jones for 14 yds to the MERC 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Adam Jones run for 3 yds to the MERC 36

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

3rd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.54

Scottre Humphrey run for 8 yds to the MERC 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.67

Scottre Humphrey run for 9 yds to the MERC 19

2nd & 1Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.21

Scottre Humphrey run for 14 yds to the MERC 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Scottre Humphrey run for 5 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Ayron Rodriguez run for 3 yds to the MERC 28

2nd & 7Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.70

Adam Urena sacked by Kenneth Eiden IV for a loss of 2 yards to the MERC 26

3rd & 9Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.16

Adam Urena pass complete to Alejandro Vazquez for 1 yd to the MERC 27

4th & 8Punt+1 yds

Hunter Pittman punt for 45 yds , Taco Dowler returns for 1 yd to the MTST 29

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Jared White run for 6 yds to the MTST 35

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Jared White run for 1 yd to the MTST 36

3rd & 3Rush-8 ydsPPA -1.04

run for a loss of 8 yards to the MTST 28

4th & 11Punt+10 yds

Brendan Hall punt for 57 yds , Chaz Davis returns for 10 yds to the MERC 25

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Adam Urena pass complete to Cameron Barmore for 6 yds to the MERC 31

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Adam Urena pass incomplete

3rd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.86

Adam Urena pass complete to Cameron Barmore for 9 yds to the MERC 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

Montana State Penalty, Targeting on ULIULAKEPA, Danny enforced (Danny Uluilakepa) to the MTST 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Ayron Rodriguez run for 1 yd to the MTST 44

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Ayron Rodriguez run for 1 yd to the MTST 43

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Adam Urena pass incomplete

4th & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.92

Adam Urena pass incomplete

1st & 10Penalty-29 yds

Montana State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Caden Dowler) to the MTST 14

1st & 25Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.17

Adam Jones run for 7 yds to the MTST 35

2nd & 18Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +4.12

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ryan Lonergan for 39 yds to the MERC 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.15

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Lonyatta Alexander Jr. for 10 yds to the MERC 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Adam Jones run for 8 yds to the MERC 8

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.24

Scottre Humphrey run for 3 yds to the MERC 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Taco Dowler for 5 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK)

1st & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.96

Adam Urena sacked by Brody Grebe for a loss of 3 yards to the MERC 22

2nd & 13Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.14

Mike Pappas run for 2 yds to the MERC 24

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Adam Urena pass incomplete

4th & 11Blocked Punt Touchdown+24 ydsPPA -6.69

Zac Crews 24 Yd Return of Blocked Punt (Myles Sansted Kick)

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.71

Ayron Rodriguez run for 19 yds to the MERC 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.89

Adam Urena pass complete to Cameron Barmore for 11 yds to the MTST 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Adam Urena pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.27

Ayron Rodriguez run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTST 46

3rd & 11Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.78

Adam Urena pass complete to Ayron Rodriguez for 11 yds to the MTST 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.37

Adam Urena pass complete to Cameron Barmore for 16 yds to the MTST 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-12 ydsPPA -1.98

Adam Urena sacked by Tayden Gray for a loss of 12 yards to the MTST 31

2nd & 22Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.43

Adam Urena pass complete to Taylor Wright-Rawls for 7 yds to the MTST 24

3rd & 15Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.78

Adam Urena pass complete to Alejandro Vazquez for 10 yds to the MTST 14

4th & 5Sack-6 ydsPPA -3.62

Adam Urena sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the MTST 20 Adam Urena fumbled, recovered by MERC , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 6 yds to the MTST 26

2nd & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.76

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Adam Jones for 8 yds to the MTST 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ryan King for 6 yds to the MTST 40

2nd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.67

Tommy Mellott run for 5 yds to the MTST 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Rohan Jones for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+50 ydsPPA +4.17

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Adam Jones for 50 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion-12 ydsPPA -1.26

Adam Urena pass incomplete Mercyhurst Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Adam Urena) to the MERC 13

2nd & 22Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.05

Ayron Rodriguez run for a loss of 1 yard to the MERC 12

0th & 22End of Half-1 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Ayron Rodriguez run for 1 yd to the MERC 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.98

Adam Urena pass complete to Cameron Barmore for 26 yds to the MTST 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.84

Ayron Rodriguez run for 1 yd to the MTST 47

2nd & 9Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.65

Ayron Rodriguez run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard line

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.62

Adam Urena pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Hunter Pittman punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Taco Dowler at the MTST 15

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Adam Jones run for 6 yds to the MTST 21

2nd & 4Rush+35 ydsPPA +2.96

Ty McCullouch run for 35 yds to the MERC 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+10 yds

MELLOTT, Tommy pass deep to the right incomplete intended for MCCULLOUCH, Ty thrown to the MER20. PENALTY MER Holding enforced 10 yards from the MER44 to the MER34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ryan King for 5 yds to the MERC 29

2nd & 5Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.22

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Taco Dowler for 8 yds to the MERC 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Scottre Humphrey run for 5 yds to the MERC 16

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

3rd & 5Passing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +2.98

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Rohan Jones for 16 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Brian Trobel run for 7 yds to the MERC 32

2nd & 3Pass Reception-6 ydsPPA -1.60

Adam Urena pass complete to Brian Trobel for a loss of 6 yards to the MERC 26

3rd & 9Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.16

Adam Urena pass complete to Sam Burchard for 1 yd to the MERC 27

4th & 8Punt+18 yds

Hunter Pittman punt for 58 yds , Taco Dowler returns for 18 yds to the MTST 33

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.96

Jared White run for 10 yds to the MTST 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Return Touchdown+43 ydsPPA -9.53

Adonis Marshall 43 Yd Fumble Return (Nathan Nagucki PAT MISSED)

0th & 0Penalty-5 yds

Mercyhurst Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the MTST 8

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Adam Urena pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Brian Trobel run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

3rd & 9Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Adam Urena pass complete to Chaz Davis for 5 yds to the MTST 45

4th & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.18

Adam Urena pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Colson Coon run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 5Rushing Touchdown+50 ydsPPA +4.17

Colson Coon run for 50 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Ayron Rodriguez run for a loss of 1 yard to the MERC 24

2nd & 11Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.41

Adam Urena pass complete to Cameron Barmore for 8 yds to the MERC 32

3rd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.71

Ayron Rodriguez run for 8 yds to the MERC 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Adam Urena pass complete to Chaz Davis for 7 yds to the MERC 47

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.76

Ayron Rodriguez run for 2 yds to the MERC 49

3rd & 1Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.57

Ayron Rodriguez run for 10 yds to the MTST 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.52

Adam Urena pass complete to Taylor Wright-Rawls for 15 yds to the MTST 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Adam Urena pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-6 ydsPPA -1.81

Adam Urena run for a loss of 6 yards to the MTST 32

3rd & 16Fumble Recovery (Own)-3 ydsPPA -1.45

Adam Urena sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the MTST 35 Adam Urena fumbled, recovered by MERC Chaz Davis , return for 0 yards

4th & 19Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +3.88

Adam Urena pass complete to Cameron Barmore for 19 yds to the MTST 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.33

Ayron Rodriguez run for no gain to the MTST 16

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Adam Urena pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Adam Urena pass complete to Joe Kerbacher for 1 yd to the MTST 15

4th & 9Penalty+5 yds

Montana State Penalty, Offsides (TEAM) to the MTST 10

4th & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.27

Adam Urena pass complete to Joe Kerbacher for 5 yds to the MTST 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.55

Adam Urena pass complete to Joe Kerbacher for no gain to the MTST 5

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Adam Urena pass incomplete

3rd & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.76

Adam Urena pass complete to Joe Kerbacher for 5 yds for a TD (Nathan Nagucki KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+26 yds

Kaedon Kline kickoff for 65 yds , Unterrio Latin-Henley return for 26 yds to the MTST 26

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.93

Colson Coon run for 8 yds to the MTST 34

2nd & 2Penalty-10 yds

Montana State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MTST 25

2nd & 11Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.79

Colson Coon run for 12 yds to the MTST 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Colson Coon run for 4 yds to the MTST 41

2nd & 6Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +2.47

Chance Wilson pass complete to Rylan Schlepp for 32 yds to the MERC 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Colson Coon run for 5 yds to the MERC 22

2nd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.12

Colson Coon run for 8 yds to the MERC 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.61

Colson Coon run for 9 yds to the MERC 5

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Colson Coon run for no gain to the MERC 5

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.49

Chance Wilson run for 5 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Brendan Hall kickoff for 65 yds , Chaz Davis return for 22 yds to the MERC 22

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.56

Jonathan Askew run for 7 yds to the MERC 29

2nd & 3Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.38

Adam Urena pass complete to Colin Melendez for 5 yds to the MERC 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Adam Urena pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Jonathan Askew run for 3 yds to the MERC 37

3rd & 7Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.56

Adam Urena pass complete to Chaz Davis for 11 yds to the MERC 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Adam Urena pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.58

Adam Urena pass complete to Mike Pappas for 7 yds to the MTST 45

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Adam Urena pass incomplete

4th & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +2.46

Adam Urena pass complete to Chaz Davis for 4 yds to the MTST 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Mike Pappas run for 2 yds to the MTST 39

2nd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Adam Urena pass complete to Chaz Davis for 4 yds to the MTST 35

3rd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -1.03

Adam Urena run for no gain to the MTST 35

4th & 4Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.27

Adam Urena pass complete to Mike Pappas for 16 yds to the MTST 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Adam Urena pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Adam Urena pass incomplete

Situational Analysis

Mercyhurst

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
33%
24 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
33%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
17%
12 plays
60%
5 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
29%
7 plays
40%
5 plays
4th
100%
1 play
50%
4 plays
0%
1 play
50%
2 plays

Montana State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
2 plays
76%
25 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
60%
5 plays
83%
12 plays
0%
2 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play
4th