Skip to main content
← Back to GamesJan 21, 2025Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Notre Dame by 1.5

Home Win Probability

Notre Dame 53%

Market (Bovada)

Notre Dame +8.5

Edge: Notre Dame +8.5 (10.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Jan 21, 2025

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Ohio StateOhio State
02110334
Notre DameNotre Dame
708823

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-07-77-147-217-287-3115-3123-34
Notre DameOhio State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NDOSNDOSNDOSNDOSNDOSNDOSNDOSNDOSNDTD1875ydTD1175ydPUNT3-5ydTD1076ydPUNT31ydTD1280ydEND17ydTD575ydDOWNS48ydFG65ydTD1075ydTO654ydMISS1270ydPUNT519ydTD680ydFG961ydEND215yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Ohio State and Notre Dame
StatisticOhio StateNotre Dame
Passing17-2122-32
Pass Yards231255
Rush Yards21453
Total Yards445308
Turnovers10
3rd Down9-125-12
Penalties6-583-30
Possession32:2527:35

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Ohio State
passing
Will Howard
17/21, 231 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Quinshon Judkins
11 CAR, 100 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Jeremiah Smith
5 REC, 88 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Notre Dame
passing
Riley Leonard
22/31, 255 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Riley Leonard
17 CAR, 40 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jaden Greathouse
6 REC, 128 YDS, 2 TD
defense
Xavier Watts
1 TFL, 1 PD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Jeremiyah Love run for a loss of 1 yard to the ND 24

2nd & 11Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.41

Riley Leonard run for 8 yds to the ND 32

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.32

Riley Leonard run for 4 yds to the ND 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Kris Mitchell

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.00

Riley Leonard pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 10 yds to the ND 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.65

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for 7 yds to the OSU 47

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.70

Riley Leonard run for 2 yds to the OSU 45

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.20

Jeremiyah Love run for no gain to the OSU 45

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +2.14

Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the OSU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.53

Riley Leonard pass complete to Eli Raridon for 14 yds to the OSU 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Kris Mitchell

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.55

Jadarian Price run for 9 yds to the OSU 19

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.18

Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the OSU 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds to the OSU 12

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the OSU 7

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Riley Leonard run for 2 yds to the OSU 5

4th & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.92

Riley Leonard run for 4 yds to the OSU 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Riley Leonard run for 1 yd for a TD (Mitch Jeter KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

TreVeyon Henderson run for 5 yds to the OSU 30

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.75

TreVeyon Henderson run for no gain to the OSU 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.69

Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 7 yds to the OSU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Will Howard pass complete to Gee Scott Jr. for 4 yds to the OSU 41

2nd & 6Rush+19 ydsPPA +2.03

TreVeyon Henderson run for 19 yds to the ND 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.49

Will Howard pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 15 yds to the ND 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.10

Jeremiah Smith run for a loss of 5 yards to the ND 30

2nd & 15Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.92

Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 12 yds to the ND 18

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.35

Will Howard run for 5 yds to the ND 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Quinshon Judkins run for 5 yds to the ND 8

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.46

Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 8 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Beaux Collins

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

Notre Dame Penalty, False Start (Beaux Collins) to the ND 20

2nd & 15Penalty-10 yds

Leonard, Riley pass complete to Collins, Beaux for 13 yards to the NOTREDAME33, PENALTY NOTREDAME holding (Jagusah, Charles) 10 yards to the NOTREDAME10, NO PLAY.

2nd & 25Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.02

Jadarian Price run for 2 yds to the ND 12

3rd & 23Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.02

Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 8 yds to the ND 20

4th & 15Punt+56 yds

James Rendell punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Caleb Downs at the OSU 34 Ohio State Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the OSU 24

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.10

Emeka Egbuka run for 13 yds to the OSU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.36

Will Howard pass complete to Carnell Tate for 15 yds to the ND 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

TreVeyon Henderson run for 2 yds to the ND 46

2nd & 8Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 3 yds to the ND 43

3rd & 5Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.81

Will Howard run for 11 yds to the ND 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.25

Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 12 yds to the ND 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Quinshon Judkins run for 2 yds to the ND 18

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 6 yds to the ND 12

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.25

Will Howard run for 3 yds to the ND 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rushing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Quinshon Judkins run for 9 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the ND 30

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Kris Mitchell

3rd & 5Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.53

TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the ND 26 TEAM fumbled, recovered by ND

4th & 9Punt-3 yds

James Rendell punt for 51 yds , Brandon Inniss returns for a loss of 3 yards to the OSU 20

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 2 yds to the OSU 22

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

TreVeyon Henderson run for 1 yd to the OSU 23

3rd & 7Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.50

Will Howard pass complete to Brandon Inniss for 19 yds to the OSU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -1.36

Will Howard sacked by Joshua Burnham for a loss of 1 yard to the OSU 41

2nd & 11Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the OSU 45

3rd & 7Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +3.08

Will Howard pass complete to Carnell Tate for 20 yds to the ND 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.25

Will Howard sacked by Joshua Burnham for a loss of 3 yards to the ND 38

2nd & 13Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.55

Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 15 yds to the ND 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Will Howard pass incomplete to TreVeyon Henderson

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.55

Will Howard run for 11 yds to the ND 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

TreVeyon Henderson run for 6 yds to the ND 6

2nd & 4Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.35

Will Howard pass complete to Quinshon Judkins for 6 yds for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 7 yds to the ND 32

0th & 10End of Half+7 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Will Howard pass incomplete to Jeremiah Smith

2nd & 10Rush+70 ydsPPA +4.90

Quinshon Judkins run for 70 yds to the ND 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the ND 4

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Will Howard run for 3 yds to the ND 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd for a TD (Jayden Fielding KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jaden Greathouse

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Jeremiyah Love run for 2 yds to the ND 27

3rd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.11

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jordan Faison for 6 yds to the ND 33

4th & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.10

Steve Angeli pass incomplete to Jordan Faison

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

TreVeyon Henderson run for 4 yds to the ND 29

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Will Howard run for 7 yds to the ND 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the ND 19

2nd & 7Penalty-10 yds

Howard, Will pass complete to Egbuka, Emeka for 5 yards to the NOTREDAME14, PENALTY OSU holding (Fryar, Josh) 10 yards to the NOTREDAME29, NO PLAY.

2nd & 17Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.70

TreVeyon Henderson run for 1 yd to the ND 28

3rd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Will Howard pass incomplete to Carnell Tate

4th & 16Field Goal Good+46 yds

Jayden Fielding 46 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the ND 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.84

Riley Leonard pass complete to Kris Mitchell for 6 yds to the ND 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.96

Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 10 yds to the ND 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Jadarian Price run for 2 yds to the ND 48

2nd & 8Sack-11 ydsPPA -2.28

Riley Leonard sacked by Sonny Styles for a loss of 11 yards to the ND 37

3rd & 19Penalty+15 yds

Leonard, Riley pass incomplete to Evans, Mitchell, PENALTY OSU pass interference (Igbinosun, Davison) 15 yards to the OSU48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Riley Leonard pass complete to Eli Raridon for 6 yds to the OSU 42

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Riley Leonard run for 3 yds to the OSU 39

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.78

Riley Leonard run for 5 yds to the OSU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jayden Thomas

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+34 ydsPPA +3.60

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 34 yds for a TD (Riley Leonard pass to Jeremiyah Love for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 7 yds to the OSU 32

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Will Howard run for 2 yds to the OSU 34

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.95

Will Howard run for 2 yds to the OSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

TreVeyon Henderson run for 2 yds to the OSU 38

2nd & 8Penalty+15 yds

Howard, Will pass incomplete to Henderson, TreVeyon, PENALTY NOTREDAME roughing passer (Oben, RJ) 15 yards to the NOTREDAME47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN OSU.

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

TreVeyon Henderson run for 2 yds to the ND 45

2nd & 8Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+24 ydsPPA -2.80

Will Howard pass complete to Emeka Egbuka for 24 yds Emeka Egbuka fumbled, forced by Drayk Bowen, recovered by ND Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.49

Jordan Faison run for 1 yd to the ND 22

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Riley Leonard pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +3.46

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 30 yds to the OSU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

Leonard, Riley pass incomplete to Collins, Beaux, PENALTY OSU holding (Igbinosun, Davison) 10 yards to the OSU38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.

1st & 10Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.61

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jayden Harrison for a loss of 4 yards to the OSU 42

2nd & 14Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Riley Leonard run for 2 yds to the OSU 40

3rd & 12Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.50

Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 7 yds to the OSU 33

4th & 5Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.16

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 11 yds to the OSU 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 6 yds to the OSU 16

2nd & 4Penalty+8 yds

Leonard, Riley pass incomplete to Harrison, Jayden, PENALTY OSU holding (Hancock, Jordan) 8 yards to the OSU8, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN NOTREDAME.

1st & 8Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.42

Riley Leonard run for a loss of 1 yard to the OSU 9

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Mitchell Evans

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Riley Leonard pass incomplete to Jaden Greathouse

4th & 0Field Goal Missed+27 yds

Mitch Jeter 27 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the OSU 21

2nd & 9Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.34

Will Howard run for 11 yds to the OSU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the OSU 35

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Quinshon Judkins run for 4 yds to the OSU 39

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Will Howard pass incomplete to Jeremiah Smith

4th & 3Punt+10 yds

Joe McGuire punt for 51 yds , Max Hurleman returns for 10 yds to the ND 20

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.87

Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 12 yds to the ND 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 4 yds to the ND 36

2nd & 6Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +2.83

Riley Leonard pass complete to Mitchell Evans for 33 yds to the OSU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Riley Leonard sacked by JT Tuimoloau for a loss of 2 yards to the OSU 33

2nd & 12Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Riley Leonard pass complete to Beaux Collins for 3 yds to the OSU 30

3rd & 9Passing Touchdown+30 ydsPPA +4.03

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 30 yds for a TD (Jordan Faison pass to Beaux Collins for Two-Point Conversion)

3rd & 9Kickoff Return (Offense)+6 yds

Mitch Jeter kickoff for 47 yds , TreVeyon Henderson return for 6 yds to the OSU 24

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Quinshon Judkins run for 3 yds to the OSU 27

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.19

Will Howard run for 8 yds to the OSU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.01

Will Howard run for no gain to the OSU 35

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.68

Will Howard run for a loss of 1 yard to the OSU 34

3rd & 11Pass Reception+56 ydsPPA +4.43

Will Howard pass complete to Jeremiah Smith for 56 yds to the ND 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 0Penalty-5 yds

Ohio State Penalty, False Start (Bennett Christian) to the ND 15

1st & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.20

Quinshon Judkins run for 1 yd to the ND 14

2nd & 14Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Will Howard run for 1 yd to the ND 13

3rd & 13Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.95

Will Howard run for a loss of 2 yards to the ND 15

4th & 15Field Goal Good+33 yds

Jayden Fielding 33 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jeremiyah Love for a loss of 2 yards to the ND 23

2nd & 12Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.21

Riley Leonard pass complete to Jaden Greathouse for 17 yds to the ND 40 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Ohio State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
35%
26 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
1 play
67%
6 plays
50%
10 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
80%
5 plays
100%
2 plays
100%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
4th

Notre Dame

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
39%
23 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
50%
4 plays
50%
8 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
0%
1 play
75%
4 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
67%
3 plays
100%
1 play