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← Back to GamesJan 3, 2025Week 1
DukeDuke
20
-Final
52
Ole MissOle Miss

House Prediction

Model Margin

Ole Miss by 11.9

Home Win Probability

Ole Miss 80%

Market (Bovada)

Ole Miss -17

Edge: Duke +17 (5.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Jan 3, 2025

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
DukeDuke
0701320
Ole MissOle Miss
1410141452

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428425614-017-017-724-731-738-745-1452-20
Ole MissDuke

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20OMDUKOMDUKOMDUKOMDUKOMDUKOMDUKOMDUKDUKOMDUKOMDUKOMDUKOMDUKOMTO1265ydDOWNS49ydTD468ydPUNT33ydTD1166ydPUNT59ydFG1261ydTD875ydTD1075ydPUNT924ydEND10ydPUNT3-4ydPUNT3-1ydTD715ydDOWNS949ydTD474ydPUNT516ydPUNT3-4ydDOWNS49ydTD438ydTD1175ydTD475ydTD00ydEND342yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Duke and Ole Miss
StatisticDukeOle Miss
Passing25-4528-37
Pass Yards236438
Rush Yards44151
Total Yards280589
Turnovers11
3rd Down6-176-11
Penalties1-156-45
Possession30:0229:58

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Duke
passing
Henry Belin IV
25/44, 236 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Peyton Jones
8 CAR, 18 YDS
receiving
Jordan Moore
5 REC, 63 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Ole Miss
passing
Jaxson Dart
27/35, 404 YDS, 4 TD
rushing
Ulysses Bentley IV
14 CAR, 70 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Jordan Watkins
7 REC, 180 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Jaxson Dart run for 4 yds to the MISS 29

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the MISS 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 3 yds to the MISS 34

4th & 1Rush+7 ydsPPA +2.14

JJ Pegues run for 7 yds to the MISS 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Jaxson Dart run for 6 yds to the MISS 47

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.24

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Dae'Quan Wright

3rd & 4Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.96

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 7 yds to the DUKE 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +0.97

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 30 yds to the DUKE 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 2 yds to the DUKE 14

2nd & 8Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.43

Jaxson Dart run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 15

3rd & 9Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 5 yds to the DUKE 10

4th & 4Pass Interception Return+59 ydsPPA -3.85

Caden Davis pass intercepted Terry Moore return for 59 yds to the MISS 41

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Jaquez Moore pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.87

Henry Belin IV pass complete to Eli Pancol for 9 yds to the MISS 32

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.95

Henry Belin IV pass incomplete to Jordan Moore

4th & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.80

Henry Belin IV pass incomplete to Jordan Moore

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.68

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Caden Prieskorn

2nd & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.08

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 18 yds to the DUKE 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+32 ydsPPA +2.87

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Antwane Wells Jr. for 32 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Henry Belin IV pass complete to Jake Taylor for 1 yd to the DUKE 26

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Henry Belin IV pass incomplete to Eli Pancol

3rd & 9Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.13

Henry Belin IV pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 2 yds to the DUKE 28

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Kade Reynoldson punt for 38 yds, downed at the MISS 34

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Logan Diggs for 6 yds to the MISS 40

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Cayden Lee

3rd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.81

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 5 yds to the MISS 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.04

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 14 yds to the DUKE 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 3 yds to the DUKE 38

2nd & 7Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.78

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 11 yds to the DUKE 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.66

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 9 yds to the DUKE 18

2nd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the DUKE 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 8 yds to the DUKE 9

2nd & 2Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.19

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 8 yds to the DUKE 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Jaquez Moore run for 2 yds to the DUKE 22

2nd & 8Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Henry Belin IV pass complete to Eli Pancol for 18 yds to the DUKE 40 for a 1ST down Duke Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Eli Pancol) to the DUKE 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.02

Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 4 yards to the DUKE 21

2nd & 14Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.25

Henry Belin IV run for 8 yds to the DUKE 29

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Henry Belin IV pass incomplete to Eli Pancol

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Kade Reynoldson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the MISS 28

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.20

Jaxson Dart run for 13 yds to the MISS 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.52

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for a loss of 2 yards to the MISS 39

2nd & 12Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.04

Jaxson Dart sacked by Cameron Bergeron for a loss of 7 yards to the MISS 32

3rd & 19Rush+19 ydsPPA +3.46

Jaxson Dart run for 19 yds to the DUKE 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 2 yds to the DUKE 47

2nd & 8Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.41

Jaxson Dart run for 12 yds to the DUKE 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Antwane Wells Jr.

2nd & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.13

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 22 yds to the DUKE 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.50

Ulysses Bentley IV run for a loss of 3 yards to the DUKE 16

2nd & 13Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Caden Prieskorn for 5 yds to the DUKE 11

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Jordan Watkins

4th & 8Field Goal Good+28 yds

Caden Davis 28 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Henry Belin IV pass complete to Jordan Moore for 12 yds to the DUKE 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Henry Belin IV run for 1 yd to the DUKE 38

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Henry Belin IV pass incomplete to Jaquez Moore

3rd & 9Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.83

Henry Belin IV pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Henry Belin IV pass incomplete to Jordan Moore

2nd & 10Penalty+5 yds

Belin IV, Henry pass incomplete to Moore, Jordan, PENALTY MISS offside (Pegues, JJ) 5 yards to the MISS45, NO PLAY.

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Henry Belin IV run for 2 yds to the MISS 43

3rd & 3Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +1.82

Henry Belin IV pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 27 yds to the MISS 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +2.57

Henry Belin IV pass complete to Javon Harvey for 16 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the MISS 26

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.41

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Ulysses Bentley IV for 15 yds to the MISS 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Caden Prieskorn

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.25

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 13 yds to the DUKE 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +0.82

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 20 yds to the DUKE 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 5 yds to the DUKE 21

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.38

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 1 yd to the DUKE 20

3rd & 4Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.46

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 4 yds to the DUKE 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Ole Miss Penalty, False Start (Reece McIntyre) to the DUKE 21

1st & 15Passing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +2.93

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Dae'Quan Wright for 21 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jaquez Moore run for 5 yds to the DUKE 30

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Jaquez Moore run for 2 yds to the DUKE 32

3rd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.51

Henry Belin IV pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 6 yds to the DUKE 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Henry Belin IV pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Henry Belin IV pass complete to Jake Taylor for 6 yds to the DUKE 44

3rd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.84

Henry Belin IV pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 5 yds to the DUKE 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Henry Belin IV pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Henry Belin IV pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Henry Belin IV pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Kade Reynoldson punt for 41 yds, downed at the MISS 10

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.35

Domonique Thomas run for no gain to the MISS 10

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Henry Belin IV pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -0.49

Henry Belin IV pass complete to Jaquez Moore for a loss of 4 yards to the DUKE 21

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.08

Henry Belin IV pass incomplete to Sahmir Hagans

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Kade Reynoldson punt for 51 yds, downed at the MISS 28

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Jaxson Dart pass incomplete to Antwane Wells Jr.

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 5 yds to the MISS 33

3rd & 5Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.68

Jaxson Dart sacked by Tyshon Reed and Alex Howard for a loss of 6 yards to the MISS 27

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Fraser Masin punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the DUKE 28

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.36

Jaquez Moore run for 6 yds to the DUKE 34

2nd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.11

Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the DUKE 33

3rd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Henry Belin IV run for 3 yds to the DUKE 36

4th & 2Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +2.14

Henry Belin IV pass complete to Jake Taylor for 5 yds to the DUKE 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Henry Belin IV run for 2 yds to the DUKE 43

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Henry Belin IV run for no gain to the DUKE 43

3rd & 8Interception Return Touchdown+50 ydsPPA -7.70

Henry Belin IV pass intercepted Isaiah Hamilton return for 50 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.98

Henry Belin IV pass complete to Jordan Moore for 22 yds to the DUKE 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.80

Henry Belin IV pass complete to Eli Pancol for 11 yds to the MISS 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Jaquez Moore run for 2 yds to the MISS 40

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Peyton Jones run for 2 yds to the MISS 38

3rd & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.59

Henry Belin IV pass complete to Que'Sean Brown for 10 yds to the MISS 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Henry Belin IV pass incomplete to Peyton Jones

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Henry Belin IV pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 4 yds to the MISS 24

3rd & 6Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.15

Jaquez Moore run for a loss of 2 yards to the MISS 26

4th & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.49

Henry Belin IV pass incomplete to Sahmir Hagans

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.93

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 8 yds to the MISS 34

2nd & 2Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.89

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 12 yds to the MISS 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+51 ydsPPA +2.72

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 51 yds to the DUKE 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 0Penalty-5 yds

Ole Miss Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the DUKE 8

1st & 8Rushing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.32

Ulysses Bentley IV run for 8 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Henry Belin IV pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.73

Henry Belin IV pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 12 yds to the DUKE 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Henry Belin IV pass complete to Eli Pancol for 4 yds to the DUKE 41

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Henry Belin IV pass incomplete to Eli Pancol

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Henry Belin IV pass incomplete to Que'Sean Brown

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Kade Reynoldson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Micah Davis at the MISS 16

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.65

Jaxson Dart run for 1 yd to the MISS 17 Ole Miss Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (-5 Yards) to the MISS 12

2nd & 14Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.16

Jaxson Dart sacked by David Anderson for a loss of 8 yards to the MISS 4

3rd & 22Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.02

Jaxson Dart run for 8 yds to the MISS 12

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Fraser Masin punt for 59 yds, downed at the DUKE 29

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Henry Belin IV pass complete to Jordan Moore for 5 yds to the DUKE 34

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Peyton Jones run for 3 yds to the DUKE 37

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Peyton Jones run for 1 yd to the DUKE 38

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.36

Jaquez Moore run for no gain to the DUKE 38

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Antwane Wells Jr. run for 4 yds to the DUKE 34

2nd & 6Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +0.64

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 21 yds to the DUKE 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.60

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Cayden Lee for 12 yds to the DUKE 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Passing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 1 yd for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Henry Belin IV pass complete to Peyton Jones for 13 yds to the DUKE 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.09

Peyton Jones run for no gain to the DUKE 38

2nd & 10Penalty+10 yds

Belin IV, Henry pass incomplete to Pancol, Eli, PENALTY MISS holding (Banks, TJ) 10 yards to the DUKE48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN DUKE.

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

Peyton Jones run for no gain to the DUKE 48

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Henry Belin IV pass complete to Peyton Jones for 4 yds to the MISS 48

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

Henry Belin IV pass incomplete to Javon Harvey

4th & 6Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +3.36

Henry Belin IV pass complete to Eli Pancol for 15 yds to the MISS 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Peyton Jones run for 3 yds to the MISS 30

2nd & 7Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.44

Peyton Jones run for 7 yds to the MISS 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Peyton Jones run for 2 yds to the MISS 21

2nd & 8Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.36

Henry Belin IV pass complete to Sahmir Hagans for 1 yd to the MISS 20

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +3.25

Henry Belin IV pass complete to Jordan Moore for 20 yds for a TD (Todd Pelino KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Antwane Wells Jr. run for 4 yds to the MISS 29

2nd & 6Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.82

Logan Diggs run for 15 yds to the MISS 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Jaxson Dart run for 2 yds to the MISS 46

2nd & 8Penalty-15 yds

Ole Miss Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the MISS 31

2nd & 23Passing Touchdown+69 ydsPPA +7.14

Jaxson Dart pass complete to Jordan Watkins for 69 yds for a TD (Mike Baker KICK)

2nd & 23Kickoff Return Touchdown+99 yds

Sahmir Hagans 99 Yd Kickoff Return (Todd Pelino PAT blocked)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

Austin Acton run for 1 yd to the DUKE 48

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.57

Jason Albritton run for 7 yds to the DUKE 41

3rd & 2Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +1.85

Austin Simmons pass complete to Jordan Smart for 34 yds to the DUKE 7 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Duke

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
31%
26 plays
2nd
0%
5 plays
29%
14 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
50%
4 plays
29%
7 plays
40%
5 plays
0%
1 play
4th
33%
3 plays
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

Ole Miss

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
2 plays
47%
32 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
67%
3 plays
33%
6 plays
78%
9 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
100%
1 play
60%
5 plays
67%
3 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play