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← Back to GamesDec 28, 2024Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

UConn by 0.6

Home Win Probability

North Carolina 51%

Market (Bovada)

North Carolina -2.5

Edge: UConn +2.5 (3.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Dec 28, 2024

Line Movement

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Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
UConnUConn
10143027
North CarolinaNorth Carolina
700714

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-37-177-247-2714-27
North CarolinaUConn

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20UCONCUCONCUCONCUCONCUCONCUCONCUCONCUCONCUCONCUCONCUCONCUCOFG861ydPUNT37ydPUNT520ydPUNT31ydTD251ydTD00ydTD1179ydPUNT3-18ydPUNT31ydPUNT34ydTD1456ydTO326ydEND1-2ydDOWNS521ydFG1140ydPUNT3-1ydMISS729ydPUNT30ydPUNT511ydTD896ydPUNT3-1ydDOWNS840ydEND316yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing UConn and North Carolina
StatisticUConnNorth Carolina
Passing16-2411-14
Pass Yards151110
Rush Yards21096
Total Yards361206
Turnovers01
3rd Down8-160-9
Penalties4-309-55
Possession34:5025:10

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

UConn
passing
Joe Fagnano
16/23, 151 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Jayden Brown
11 CAR, 96 YDS
receiving
Skyler Bell
3 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD
defense
North Carolina
passing
Michael Merdinger
9/12, 86 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Caleb Hood
11 CAR, 78 YDS
receiving
John Copenhaver
4 REC, 44 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+18 yds

Lucas Osada kickoff for 58 yds , Mel Brown return for 18 yds to the CONN 25

1st & 10Rush+47 ydsPPA +3.31

Mel Brown run for 47 yds to the UNC 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Joe Fagnano run for 1 yd to the UNC 27

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Cam Edwards run for 3 yds to the UNC 24

3rd & 6Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.77

Joe Fagnano pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 6 yds to the UNC 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Joe Fagnano pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 6 yds to the UNC 12

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

Cam Edwards run for no gain to the UNC 12

3rd & 4Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.63

Nick Evers run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNC 14

4th & 6Field Goal Good+32 yds

Chris Freeman 32 yd FG GOOD

4th & 6Kickoff Return (Offense)+23 yds

Chris Freeman kickoff for 61 yds , Chris Culliver return for 23 yds to the UNC 27

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.64

Davion Gause run for 1 yd to the UNC 28

2nd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.40

Jacolby Criswell pass complete to J.J. Jones for 7 yds to the UNC 35

3rd & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.75

Davion Gause run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 34

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Tom Maginness punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CONN 31

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.38

Joe Fagnano run for 6 yds to the CONN 37

2nd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.67

Joe Fagnano pass complete to Louis Hansen for 5 yds to the CONN 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to TJ Sheffield

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Mel Brown run for 4 yds to the CONN 46

3rd & 6Penalty+5 yds

North Carolina Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jacolbe Cowan) to the UNC 49

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.17

Cam Edwards run for no gain to the UNC 49

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Connor Stutz punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Alijah Huzzie at the UNC 19

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.60

Davion Gause run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 18

2nd & 11Penalty-5 yds

North Carolina Penalty, False Start (Caleb Hood) to the UNC 13

2nd & 16Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.08

Jacolby Criswell run for 7 yds to the UNC 20

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Michael Merdinger pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Tom Maginness punt for 31 yds, downed at the CONN 49

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.83

Nick Evers run for 13 yds to the UNC 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+38 ydsPPA +3.09

Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 38 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return Touchdown+95 yds

Chris Freeman kickoff for 60 yds , Chris Culliver return for 95 yds for a TD (Lucas Osada KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+15 yds

Lucas Osada kickoff for 59 yds , Mel Brown return for 15 yds to the CONN 21

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.49

Cam Edwards run for 1 yd to the CONN 22

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Louis Hansen

3rd & 9Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.29

Joe Fagnano pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 17 yds to the CONN 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.01

Cam Edwards run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Mel Brown run for 3 yds to the UNC 47

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.09

Mel Brown run for 8 yds to the UNC 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Skyler Bell

2nd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Joe Fagnano pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 3 yds to the UNC 36

3rd & 7Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.58

Joe Fagnano pass complete to Jasaiah Gathings for 10 yds to the UNC 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.33

Joe Fagnano run for 7 yds to the UNC 19

2nd & 3Penalty+15 yds

Fagnano, Joe pass incomplete to Hansen, Louis, PENALTY UNC personal foul (Campbell, Amare) 15 yards to the UNC4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCONN.

1st & 0Penalty+4 yds

North Carolina Penalty, Personal Foul (Joshua Harris) declined

1st & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Joe Fagnano pass complete to Alex Honig for 4 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+27 yds

Chris Freeman kickoff for 58 yds , DeAndre Boykins return for 27 yds to the UNC 34

1st & 10Rush-7 ydsPPA -1.72

Tyrane Stewart run for a loss of 7 yards to the UNC 27

2nd & 17Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.09

Michael Merdinger pass complete to John Copenhaver for 6 yds to the UNC 33

3rd & 11Sack-12 ydsPPA -0.41

Michael Merdinger sacked by Donovan Branch for a loss of 12 yards to the UNC 21 Michael Merdinger fumbled, forced by Donovan Branch, recovered by UNC

4th & 23Penalty-5 yds

North Carolina Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the UNC 16

4th & 28Punt0 yds

Tom Maginness punt for 53 yds, downed at the CONN 31

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.89

Victor Rosa run for no gain to the CONN 31

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Joe Fagnano run for 1 yd to the CONN 32

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Skyler Bell

4th & 9Punt+51 yds

Connor Stutz punt for 51 yds , Alijah Huzzie returns for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 16

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Caleb Hood run for 4 yds to the UNC 20

2nd & 6Penalty-5 yds

North Carolina Penalty, False Start (Trevyon Green) to the UNC 15

2nd & 11Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.20

Caleb Hood run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 14

3rd & 12Penalty-5 yds

North Carolina Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the UNC 9

3rd & 17Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.10

Darwin Barlow run for 11 yds to the UNC 20

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Tom Maginness punt for 36 yds, fair catch by TJ Sheffield at the CONN 44

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Skyler Bell

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.11

Mel Brown run for 9 yds to the UNC 47

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.01

Cam Edwards run for 3 yds to the UNC 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

North Carolina Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the UNC 39

1st & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Mel Brown

2nd & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.51

Mel Brown run for 9 yds to the UNC 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Joe Fagnano pass complete to Louis Hansen for 1 yd to the UNC 29

2nd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Mel Brown run for 8 yds to the UNC 21

3rd & 1Fumble Recovery (Own)+4 ydsPPA +0.20

Mel Brown run for 4 yds to the UNC 17 Mel Brown fumbled, forced by Jacolbe Cowan, recovered by CONN Wes Hoeh for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.34

Joe Fagnano run for no gain to the UNC 17

2nd & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.23

Cam Edwards run for 13 yds to the UNC 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Joe Fagnano pass incomplete to Louis Hansen

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Cam Edwards run for 2 yds to the UNC 2

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.31

Cam Edwards run for no gain to the UNC 2

4th & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.85

Cam Edwards run for 2 yds for a TD (Chris Freeman KICK)

4th & 0Penalty-5 yds

UConn Penalty, False Start (Carter Boskovich) to the UNC 8

4th & 13Kickoff Return (Offense)+20 yds

Chris Freeman kickoff for 45 yds , Jake Johnson return for 20 yds to the UNC 40

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

North Carolina Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the UNC 35

1st & 15Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.65

Michael Merdinger pass complete to John Copenhaver for 23 yds to the CONN 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.67

Michael Merdinger pass complete to Caleb Hood for 8 yds to the CONN 34

2nd & 2Pass Interception Return+3 ydsPPA -4.38

Michael Merdinger pass intercepted Tui Faumuina-Brown return for 3 yds to the CONN 33

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.23

TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the CONN 31

0th & 10End of Half-2 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Davion Gause run for 12 yds to the UNC 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Davion Gause run for 1 yd to the UNC 38

2nd & 9Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Michael Merdinger pass complete to J.J. Jones for 5 yds to the UNC 43

3rd & 4Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.50

Michael Merdinger pass complete to Jordan Shipp for 2 yds to the UNC 45

4th & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.65

Michael Merdinger run for 1 yd to the UNC 46

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.75

Cam Edwards run for 8 yds to the UNC 38

2nd & 2Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Joe Fagnano pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 4 yds to the UNC 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Cam Edwards run for 6 yds to the UNC 28

2nd & 4Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.67

Joe Fagnano pass complete to TJ Sheffield for no gain to the UNC 28

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.72

Cam Edwards run for 5 yds to the UNC 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Joe Fagnano pass complete to Alex Honig for 6 yds to the UNC 17

2nd & 4Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.42

Victor Rosa run for 11 yds to the UNC 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Victor Rosa run for 1 yd to the UNC 5

2nd & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.39

Victor Rosa run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 6

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Nick Evers pass incomplete to Brett Buckman

4th & 6Field Goal Good+24 yds

Chris Freeman 24 yd FG GOOD

4th & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+7 yds

Chris Freeman kickoff for 48 yds , DeAndre Boykins return for 7 yds to the UNC 24

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.89

Caleb Hood run for 8 yds to the UNC 32

2nd & 2Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.40

Caleb Hood run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNC 30

3rd & 4Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.66

Michael Merdinger sacked by Aaron Key for a loss of 7 yards to the UNC 23

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Tom Maginness punt for 40 yds, fair catch by TJ Sheffield at the CONN 37

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

UConn Penalty, False Start (Chase Lundt) to the CONN 32

1st & 15Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Mel Brown run for 4 yds to the CONN 36

2nd & 11Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.44

Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 7 yds to the CONN 43

3rd & 4Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +3.15

Joe Fagnano pass complete to Skyler Bell for 32 yds to the UNC 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

UConn Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Tank Green) to the UNC 40

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.05

Mel Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNC 41

2nd & 11Penalty-5 yds

UConn Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the UNC 46

2nd & 16Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Joe Fagnano pass complete to Mel Brown for 5 yds to the UNC 41

3rd & 11Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.50

Joe Fagnano pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 7 yds to the UNC 34

4th & 4Field Goal Missed+52 yds

Chris Freeman 52 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.82

Michael Merdinger sacked by Matt Hoffman for a loss of 9 yards to the UNC 25

2nd & 19Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.47

Darwin Barlow run for 11 yds to the UNC 36

3rd & 8Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.48

Michael Merdinger pass complete to John Copenhaver for a loss of 2 yards to the UNC 34

4th & 10Punt+10 yds

Tom Maginness punt for 35 yds , TJ Sheffield returns for 10 yds to the CONN 41

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Victor Rosa run for 7 yds to the CONN 48

2nd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.55

Joe Fagnano run for 8 yds to the UNC 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.75

Victor Rosa run for 1 yd to the UNC 43

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Victor Rosa run for 2 yds to the UNC 41

3rd & 7Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.05

Joe Fagnano sacked by Beau Atkinson for a loss of 7 yards to the UNC 48

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Connor Stutz punt for 44 yds, downed at the UNC 4

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.28

Caleb Hood run for 10 yds to the UNC 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.58

Caleb Hood run for 11 yds to the UNC 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.42

Caleb Hood run for 16 yds to the UNC 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.97

Caleb Hood run for 11 yds to the CONN 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.81

Caleb Hood run for 16 yds to the CONN 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.28

Darwin Barlow run for 14 yds to the CONN 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

Darwin Barlow run for 1 yd to the CONN 17

2nd & 9Passing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +2.86

Caleb Hood pass complete to John Copenhaver for 17 yds for a TD (Noah Burnette KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Cam Edwards run for 4 yds to the CONN 39

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.80

Mel Brown run for 1 yd to the CONN 40

3rd & 5Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.00

Joe Fagnano sacked by Cade Law for a loss of 6 yards to the CONN 34

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Connor Stutz punt for 50 yds, downed at the UNC 16

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

North Carolina Penalty, False Start (Malik McGowan) to the UNC 11

1st & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.13

Caleb Hood run for 2 yds to the UNC 13

2nd & 13Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.05

Caleb Hood run for 3 yds to the UNC 16

3rd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.21

Michael Merdinger pass complete to Darwin Barlow for 9 yds to the UNC 25

4th & 1Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.95

Michael Merdinger pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 22 yds to the UNC 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.99

Michael Merdinger sacked by Pryce Yates for a loss of 4 yards to the UNC 43

2nd & 14Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.94

Michael Merdinger pass complete to Kobe Paysour for 13 yds to the CONN 44

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.20

Darwin Barlow run for no gain to the CONN 44

4th & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.66

Michael Merdinger pass incomplete to John Copenhaver

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Cam Edwards run for 5 yds to the CONN 49

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.96

Cam Edwards run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

3rd & 4Rush+10 ydsPPA +2.03

Cam Edwards run for 10 yds to the UNC 40 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

UConn

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
25%
4 plays
48%
25 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
50%
2 plays
33%
9 plays
40%
10 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
57%
7 plays
50%
4 plays
100%
1 play
4th
100%
1 play

North Carolina

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
53%
17 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
100%
3 plays
67%
6 plays
3rd
0%
2 plays
0%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
33%
3 plays