Skip to main content
← Back to GamesSep 21, 2024Week 4

House Prediction

Model Margin

Sacramento State by 18.8

Home Win Probability

East Texas A&M 14%

Market (ESPN Bet)

East Texas A&M +19.5

Edge: East Texas A&M +19.5 (0.7 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 21, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Sacramento StateSacramento State
31714034
East Texas A&M
00000

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-30-130-200-270-34
East Texas A&MSacramento State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20SSETASSETASSETASSETASSETAETASSETAETASSETASSETASSETASSETASSETASSFG956ydTO122ydTO838ydDOWNS754ydPUNT33ydPUNT33ydPUNT948ydPUNT39ydFG739ydTD35ydPUNT69ydTD1069ydEND39ydTO513ydTD527ydPUNT3-2ydTD1258ydDOWNS1174ydDOWNS763ydPUNT3-9ydPUNT35ydPUNT614ydTO35ydMISS510ydEND2-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Sacramento State and East Texas A&M
StatisticSacramento StateEast Texas A&M
Passing13-2416-33
Pass Yards154171
Rush Yards26026
Total Yards414197
Turnovers24
3rd Down9-176-16
Penalties1-52-20
Possession38:0421:56

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Sacramento State
passing
Carson Conklin
13/22, 154 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Elijah Tau-Tolliver
20 CAR, 127 YDS
receiving
Jared Gipson
4 REC, 85 YDS, 1 TD
East Texas A&M
passing
Eric Rodriguez
8/16, 87 YDS, 2 INT
rushing
Keith Jackson
9 CAR, 32 YDS
receiving
Tyler Daniels
2 REC, 51 YDS

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.32

Carson Conklin pass complete to Jared Gipson for 26 yds to the TAMC 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 4 yds to the TAMC 45

2nd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.80

Carson Conklin pass complete to Elijah Tau-Tolliver for 7 yds to the TAMC 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 5 yds to the TAMC 33

2nd & 5Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.39

Ezra Moleni run for 13 yds to the TAMC 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Carson Conklin pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 1 yd to the TAMC 19

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Carson Conklin pass incomplete

4th & 9Field Goal Good+37 yds

Zach Schreiner 37 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+39 yds

Evan Kiely kickoff for 58 yds , Jaden Rios return for 39 yds to the TAMC 46

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+22 ydsPPA -2.82

Eric Rodriguez pass complete to Nick Johnson for 22 yds Nick Johnson fumbled, recovered by SAC Brandon Knott B. Knott return for 0 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Carson Conklin pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+33 ydsPPA +3.47

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 33 yds to the TAMC 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Carson Conklin pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Zeke Burnett run for 5 yds to the TAMC 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.99

Carson Conklin pass complete to Coleman Kuntz for 10 yds to the TAMC 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Carson Conklin pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-10 ydsPPA -2.27

Joshua Nicholson run for a loss of 10 yards to the TAMC 30

3rd & 20Fumble Recovery (Opponent)0 ydsPPA -1.74

Carson Conklin pass complete to Elijah Tau-Tolliver for no gain Elijah Tau-Tolliver fumbled, recovered by TAMC Kyree Anderson K. Anderson return for 13 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

BK Jackson run for 4 yds to the TAMC 47

2nd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Eric Rodriguez pass complete to Christian Jourdain for 5 yds to the SAC 48

3rd & 1Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.23

Eric Rodriguez pass complete to Christian Jourdain for 6 yds to the SAC 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

BK Jackson run for 6 yds to the SAC 36

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Eric Rodriguez pass incomplete

3rd & 4Sack-1 ydsPPA -1.28

Eric Rodriguez sacked by Nakian Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the SAC 37

4th & 5Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -1.80

Eric Rodriguez pass intercepted Elias Mullican return for no gain to the SAC 3

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Zeke Burnett run for 2 yds to the SAC 5

2nd & 8Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.20

Carson Conklin sacked by Anthony Gray and Joshua Nicholson for a loss of 2 yards to the SAC 3

3rd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.02

Ezra Moleni run for 3 yds to the SAC 6

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Cal McGough punt for 36 yds, downed at the SAC 42

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Eric Rodriguez pass complete to BK Jackson for 2 yds to the SAC 40

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

BK Jackson run for 1 yd to the SAC 39

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Eric Rodriguez pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Mitchell McGarry punt for 34 yds, downed at the SAC 5

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 5 yds to the SAC 10

2nd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.23

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 5 yds to the SAC 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.45

Curron Borders run for 7 yds to the SAC 22

2nd & 3Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.61

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 20 yds to the SAC 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Carson Conklin pass complete to Austin Jarrard for 5 yds to the SAC 47

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.84

Ezra Moleni run for 6 yds to the TAMC 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Carson Conklin pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Ezra Moleni run for 5 yds to the TAMC 42

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Carson Conklin pass incomplete

4th & 5Penalty-5 yds

Sacramento State Penalty, Delay Of Game (Joshua Nicholson) to the TAMC 47

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Cal McGough punt for 40 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

JaiSean McMillian run for 2 yds to the TAMC 9

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.12

JaiSean McMillian run for 6 yds to the TAMC 15

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.22

Braxton Garmon run for 1 yd to the TAMC 16

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Mitchell McGarry punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Joshua Nicholson at the SAC 45

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Curron Borders run for 3 yds to the SAC 48

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Zeke Burnett run for 3 yds to the TAMC 49

3rd & 4Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +2.50

Carson Conklin pass complete to Jared Gipson for 29 yds to the TAMC 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Zeke Burnett run for 5 yds to the TAMC 15

2nd & 5Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.50

Carson Conklin pass complete to Devin Gandy for a loss of 1 yard to the TAMC 16

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Carson Conklin pass incomplete

4th & 6Field Goal Good+34 yds

Zach Schreiner 34 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+24 yds

Evan Kiely kickoff for 63 yds , Christian Jourdain return for 24 yds to the TAMC 26

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

BK Jackson run for 2 yds to the TAMC 28

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Ron Peace run for 3 yds to the TAMC 31

3rd & 5Interception Return Touchdown+35 ydsPPA -7.30

Ron Peace pass intercepted Elias Mullican return for 35 yds for a TD (Zach Schreiner KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

JaiSean McMillian run for 6 yds to the TAMC 31

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.87

JaiSean McMillian run for no gain to the TAMC 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +3.00

Eric Rodriguez pass complete to Nick Johnson for 22 yds to the SAC 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

(05:26) RODRIGUEZ, Eric scrambles up the middle for a gain of 6 yards to the SACST41 (WOLFE, Mitchell;HOUSTON, Derek), clock 05:19. PENALTY TAMUC Face mask on OJUKWU, Ike enforced 15 yards from the SACST47 to the TAMUC38 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 25Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Eric Rodriguez pass incomplete

2nd & 25Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.29

Eric Rodriguez sacked by Mason Brosseau for a loss of 4 yards to the TAMC 34

3rd & 29Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.05

Eric Rodriguez pass incomplete

4th & 29Punt0 yds

Mitchell McGarry punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Joshua Nicholson at the SAC 31

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 2 yds to the SAC 33

2nd & 8Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.51

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 8 yds to the SAC 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for no gain to the SAC 41

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.79

Carson Conklin pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +3.11

Carson Conklin pass complete to Devin Gandy for 14 yds to the TAMC 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.73

Carson Conklin pass complete to Jared Gipson for 8 yds to the TAMC 37

2nd & 2Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.43

Ezra Moleni run for a loss of 2 yards to the TAMC 39

3rd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.36

Carson Conklin pass complete to Devin Gandy for 9 yds to the TAMC 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.51

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 8 yds to the TAMC 22

2nd & 2Passing Touchdown+22 ydsPPA +2.30

Carson Conklin pass complete to Jared Gipson for 22 yds for a TD (Zach Schreiner KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Eric Rodriguez pass complete to Dayan Bilbo for 7 yds to the TAMC 32

2nd & 3Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.01

Eric Rodriguez pass complete to Dayan Bilbo for 11 yds to the TAMC 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -2.46

Eric Rodriguez sacked by Will Schalde and Mitchell Wolfe for a loss of 9 yards to the TAMC 34

0th & 19End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+25 yds

Zach Schreiner kickoff for 64 yds , Nick Johnson return for 25 yds to the TAMC 26

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

BK Jackson run for 2 yds to the TAMC 28

2nd & 8Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.57

JaiSean McMillian run for a loss of 1 yard to the TAMC 27

3rd & 9Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.20

Eric Rodriguez pass complete to Christian Jourdain for 12 yds to the TAMC 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Eric Rodriguez pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Interception Return+23 ydsPPA -1.04

Eric Rodriguez pass intercepted Murvin Kenion III return for 23 yds to the TAMC 27

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 2 yds to the TAMC 25

2nd & 8Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.73

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for a loss of 1 yard to the TAMC 26

3rd & 9Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.16

Carson Conklin pass complete to Onterrio Smith Jr. for 9 yds to the TAMC 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 1 yd to the TAMC 16

2nd & 9Passing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +2.84

Carson Conklin pass complete to Elijah Tau-Tolliver for 16 yds for a TD (Zach Schreiner KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Texas A&M-Commerce Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the TAMC 20

1st & 15Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

JaiSean McMillian run for 4 yds to the TAMC 24

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Eric Rodriguez pass incomplete

3rd & 11Fumble Recovery (Own)-1 ydsPPA -0.15

Eric Rodriguez sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the TAMC 23 Eric Rodriguez fumbled, recovered by TAMC Eric Rodriguez , return for 0 yards

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Mitchell McGarry punt for 35 yds, downed at the SAC 42

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 2 yds to the SAC 44

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.98

Ezra Moleni run for no gain to the SAC 44

3rd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +2.62

Carson Conklin run for 9 yds to the TAMC 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 3 yds to the TAMC 44

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 4 yds to the TAMC 40

3rd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.18

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 6 yds to the TAMC 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.32

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 14 yds to the TAMC 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.62

Curron Borders run for 9 yds to the TAMC 11

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.20

Curron Borders run for 4 yds to the TAMC 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.13

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 5 yds to the TAMC 2

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Ezra Moleni run for 1 yd to the TAMC 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Ezra Moleni run for 1 yd for a TD (Zach Schreiner KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

BK Jackson run for 7 yds to the TAMC 32

2nd & 3Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.99

Ron Peace pass complete to Christian Jourdain for no gain to the TAMC 32

3rd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.22

BK Jackson run for 3 yds to the TAMC 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+48 ydsPPA +2.66

Ron Peace pass complete to Tyler Daniels for 48 yds to the SAC 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Ron Peace pass complete to Sean Sallis for 4 yds to the SAC 13

2nd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Ron Peace pass complete to Dayan Bilbo for 4 yds to the SAC 9

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.57

BK Jackson run for 3 yds to the SAC 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

BK Jackson run for 4 yds to the SAC 2

2nd & 2Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.63

JaiSean McMillian run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAC 4

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Ron Peace pass incomplete

4th & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -4.02

Ron Peace pass complete to Tyler Daniels for 3 yds to the SAC 1

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Michael Johnson run for 2 yds to the SAC 3

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.06

Michael Johnson run for 3 yds to the SAC 6

3rd & 5Rush+50 ydsPPA +3.80

Michael Johnson run for 50 yds to the TAMC 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Michael Johnson run for 3 yds to the TAMC 41

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Michael Johnson run for 2 yds to the TAMC 39

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Curron Borders run for 4 yds to the TAMC 35

4th & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -2.53

Curron Borders run for a loss of 1 yard to the TAMC 36

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-4 ydsPPA -1.60

Ron Peace sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the TAMC 32 Ron Peace fumbled, recovered by TAMC Ron Peace , return for 0 yards

2nd & 14Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.53

Ron Peace sacked by Pate Haunga for a loss of 5 yards to the TAMC 27

3rd & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.07

Ron Peace pass incomplete

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Mitchell McGarry punt for 44 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Michael Johnson run for 2 yds to the SAC 31

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Michael Johnson run for 3 yds to the SAC 34

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Luke Baker pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt+5 yds

Cal McGough punt for 41 yds , Christian Jourdain returns for 5 yds to the TAMC 30

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Will Madonna pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Will Madonna pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.26

Will Madonna pass complete to Dayan Bilbo for 10 yds to the TAMC 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Will Madonna pass complete to Zayden Davis for 4 yds to the TAMC 44

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Will Madonna pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Will Madonna pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Mitchell McGarry punt for 56 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Michael Johnson run for 2 yds to the SAC 22

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Michael Johnson run for 3 yds to the SAC 25

3rd & 5Pass Interception Return+6 ydsPPA -0.09

Luke Baker pass intercepted KJ Shankle return for 6 yds to the SAC 25

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.15

Will Madonna pass complete to Dayan Bilbo for 11 yds to the SAC 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Will Madonna pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.44

Braxton Garmon run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAC 15

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Will Madonna pass incomplete

4th & 11Field Goal Missed+32 yds

Luke Jackson 32 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.63

(01:01) Kneel down by BAKER, Luke at SACST19 (team loss of 1), clock 00:59.

2nd & 11Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.25

(00:32) Kneel down by BAKER, Luke at SACST18 (team loss of 1), clock 00:26.

Situational Analysis

Sacramento State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
37%
30 plays
2nd
40%
5 plays
80%
5 plays
29%
17 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
100%
2 plays
44%
9 plays
60%
5 plays
0%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play

East Texas A&M

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
32%
19 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
20%
5 plays
14%
7 plays
0%
3 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
20%
5 plays
67%
3 plays
0%
4 plays
4th
0%
2 plays