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← Back to GamesNov 29, 2024Week 14
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

East Carolina by 1.6

Home Win Probability

East Carolina 50%

Market (Bovada)

East Carolina -2.5

Edge: Navy +2.5 (0.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 29, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
NavyNavy
00142034
East CarolinaEast Carolina
0301720

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428423-03-76-1413-2113-2720-35
East CarolinaNavy

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20ECNAVECNAVECNAVECNAVECNAVECNAVECNAVNAVECNAVECNAVECNAVECNAVECNAVECNAVPUNT3-4ydDOWNS724ydDOWNS961ydPUNT39ydMISS522ydPUNT611ydPUNT517ydTO38ydFG4-1ydPUNT3-13ydPUNT3-8ydDOWNS539ydPUNT416ydMISS1173ydTD1476ydPUNT38ydPUNT31ydDOWNS47ydTD557ydFG1043ydTD375ydTD1678ydTD575ydTO214ydTD215ydTD485ydEND3-6yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Navy and East Carolina
StatisticNavyEast Carolina
Passing12-1920-36
Pass Yards165219
Rush Yards293131
Total Yards458350
Turnovers11
3rd Down8-174-15
Penalties4-335-45
Possession34:3025:30

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Navy
passing
Braxton Woodson
12/19, 165 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Braxton Woodson
15 CAR, 125 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Nathan Kent
2 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
defense
East Carolina
passing
Katin Houser
20/36, 219 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Rahjai Harris
19 CAR, 88 YDS
receiving
Yannick Smith
3 REC, 66 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Lance Gossett kickoff for 62 yds , Winston Wright Jr. return for 21 yds to the ECU 24

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Katin Houser pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECU 26

3rd & 8Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.32

Katin Houser sacked by Landon Robinson for a loss of 6 yards to the ECU 20

4th & 14Punt+8 yds

Luke Larsen punt for 48 yds , Rayuan Lane III returns for 8 yds to the NAVY 40

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Braxton Woodson run for 4 yds to the NAVY 44

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 46

3rd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.12

Braxton Woodson pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 9 yds to the ECU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Eli Heidenreich run for 6 yds to the ECU 39

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Braxton Woodson pass incomplete

3rd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

Braxton Woodson run for 1 yd to the ECU 38

4th & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -1.97

Brandon Chatman run for 2 yds to the ECU 36

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECU 39

2nd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.47

Katin Houser pass complete to Casey Kelly for 8 yds to the ECU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.16

Katin Houser pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 19 yds to the NAVY 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the NAVY 32

2nd & 8Rush+29 ydsPPA +1.82

Rahjai Harris run for 29 yds to the NAVY 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the NAVY 2

2nd & 2Penalty-5 yds

East Carolina Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NAVY 7

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the NAVY 3

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Katin Houser pass incomplete

4th & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -4.08

Katin Houser pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 5

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.14

Eli Heidenreich run for 1 yd to the NAVY 6

3rd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.06

Braxton Woodson pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 6 yds to the NAVY 12

4th & 1Punt+15 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 37 yds , Ja'Marley Riddle returns for 15 yds to the NAVY 34

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.38

London Montgomery run for 19 yds to the NAVY 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

London Montgomery run for 5 yds to the NAVY 10

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Katin Houser run for 2 yds to the NAVY 8

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.27

London Montgomery run for 1 yd to the NAVY 7

4th & 2Penalty-5 yds

East Carolina Penalty, False Start (Jimarion McCrimon) to the NAVY 12

4th & 7Field Goal Missed+30 yds

Andrew Conrad 30 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Braxton Woodson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Braxton Woodson run for 4 yds to the NAVY 24

3rd & 6Penalty-10 yds

(02:27) WOODSON, Braxton pass up the middle complete for 12 yards to TECZA, Alex caught at the NAV21 and advanced to the NAV36 (BARKER, Zakye), clock 02:17. PENALTY NAV Holding on SMITH II, Hoke enforced 10 yards from the NAV24 to the NAV14 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 16Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.73

Braxton Woodson run for 17 yds to the NAVY 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.74

Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the NAVY 32

2nd & 9Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.64

Braxton Woodson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 31

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.23

Braxton Woodson pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 41 yds , Ja'Marley Riddle returns for no gain to the ECU 28

2nd & 8Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 2 yds to the ECU 32

3rd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.78

Katin Houser run for 6 yds to the ECU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Katin Houser pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Marlon Gunn Jr. run for 3 yds to the ECU 41

3rd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Katin Houser run for 6 yds to the ECU 47

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Luke Larsen punt for 45 yds, downed at the NAVY 8

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Jackson Gutierrez run for 7 yds to the NAVY 15

2nd & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.59

Alex Tecza run for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 14

3rd & 4Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.23

Jackson Gutierrez sacked for a loss of 2 yards to the NAVY 16 Jackson Gutierrez fumbled, recovered by ECU TyMir Brown , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the NAVY 13

2nd & 7Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.71

Rahjai Harris run for a loss of 4 yards to the NAVY 17

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Katin Houser pass incomplete

4th & 11Field Goal Good+35 yds

Andrew Conrad 35 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the NAVY 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Braxton Woodson pass incomplete

3rd & 7Penalty-3 yds

Navy Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-3 Yards) to the NAVY 12

4th & 23Punt-2 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 53 yds , Ja'Marley Riddle returns for a loss of 2 yards to the ECU 25

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Katin Houser pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Katin Houser pass incomplete

3rd & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.25

Katin Houser sacked by MarcAnthony Parker for a loss of 8 yards to the ECU 17

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Luke Larsen punt for 38 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +1.58

Braxton Woodson pass complete to Alex Tecza for 30 yds to the ECU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the ECU 23

2nd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Braxton Woodson run for 5 yds to the ECU 18

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the ECU 16

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -3.83

Braxton Woodson run for no gain to the ECU 16

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.57

Rahjai Harris run for 10 yds to the ECU 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Rahjai Harris run for 6 yds to the ECU 32

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.90

Rahjai Harris run for no gain to the ECU 32

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.46

Katin Houser pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Luke Larsen punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Rayuan Lane III at the NAVY 23

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.78

Braxton Woodson pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 10 yds to the NAVY 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Braxton Woodson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+41 ydsPPA +3.67

Braxton Woodson run for 27 yds to the ECU 40 for a 1ST down East Carolina Penalty, Personal Foul (D'Anta Johnson) to the ECU 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the ECU 22

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.20

Eli Heidenreich run for 7 yds to the ECU 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Jackson Gutierrez run for 7 yds to the ECU 8

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.57

Jackson Gutierrez run for 4 yds to the ECU 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.65

Jackson Gutierrez run for no gain to the ECU 4

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Eli Heidenreich run for 3 yds to the ECU 1

3rd & 1Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.53

Eli Heidenreich run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECU 4

4th & 4Field Goal Missed+21 yds

Nathan Kirkwood 21 yd FG MISSED

0th & 0End of Half-96 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+23 yds

Everett Scott kickoff for 64 yds , Isaiah Bryant return for 23 yds to the NAVY 24

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.56

Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the NAVY 25

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Braxton Woodson pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 6 yds to the NAVY 31

3rd & 3Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.56

Braxton Woodson pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 7 yds to the NAVY 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Alex Tecza run for 6 yds to the NAVY 44

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.98

Braxton Woodson run for 1 yd to the NAVY 45

3rd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.77

Alex Tecza run for 6 yds to the ECU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Braxton Woodson run for 3 yds to the ECU 46

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Brandon Chatman run for 1 yd to the ECU 45

3rd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.01

Braxton Woodson pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 9 yds to the ECU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.72

Eli Heidenreich run for no gain to the ECU 36

2nd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.10

Braxton Woodson pass complete to Jake Norris for 15 yds to the ECU 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the ECU 19

2nd & 8Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Braxton Woodson pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 3 yds to the ECU 16

3rd & 5Rushing Touchdown+16 ydsPPA +2.98

Brandon Chatman run for 16 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+11 yds

Lance Gossett kickoff for 44 yds , Jhari Patterson return for 11 yds to the ECU 32

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 4 yds to the ECU 36

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECU 38

3rd & 4Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Katin Houser pass complete to Rahjai Harris for 2 yds to the ECU 40

4th & 2Punt+43 yds

Luke Larsen punt for 43 yds , Rayuan Lane III returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 16

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the NAVY 19

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Braxton Woodson run for 3 yds to the NAVY 22

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Braxton Woodson pass incomplete

4th & 4Penalty-5 yds

Navy Penalty, Delay Of Game (Landon Robinson) to the NAVY 17

4th & 9Punt+11 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 44 yds , Ja'Marley Riddle returns for 11 yds to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Katin Houser pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Winston Wright Jr. run for 2 yds to the NAVY 48

3rd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 5 yds to the NAVY 43

4th & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.49

Katin Houser pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Braxton Woodson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.70

Brandon Chatman run for 1 yd to the NAVY 44

3rd & 9Rush+16 ydsPPA +3.14

Braxton Woodson run for 16 yds to the ECU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the ECU 36

2nd & 6Rushing Touchdown+36 ydsPPA +3.28

Eli Heidenreich run for 36 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+12 yds

Lance Gossett kickoff for 51 yds , Jhari Patterson return for 12 yds to the ECU 26

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Rahjai Harris run for 3 yds to the ECU 29

2nd & 7Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.46

Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 10 yds to the ECU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the ECU 41

2nd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.77

Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 10 yds to the NAVY 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 4 yds to the NAVY 45

2nd & 6Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.03

Rahjai Harris run for 13 yds to the NAVY 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Katin Houser pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Katin Houser pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.80

Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 1 yd to the NAVY 31

4th & 9Field Goal Good+48 yds

Andrew Conrad 48 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Braxton Woodson pass complete to Nathan Kent for 7 yds to the NAVY 32

2nd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.62

Alex Tecza run for 7 yds to the NAVY 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+61 ydsPPA +4.86

Braxton Woodson pass complete to Nathan Kent for 61 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+17 yds

Lance Gossett kickoff for 60 yds , Jhari Patterson return for 17 yds to the ECU 22

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

London Montgomery run for 2 yds to the ECU 24

2nd & 8Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.46

Katin Houser run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECU 23

3rd & 9Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.89

Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 12 yds to the ECU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Katin Houser pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

London Montgomery run for 4 yds to the ECU 39

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Katin Houser pass incomplete

4th & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +2.64

London Montgomery run for 6 yds to the ECU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.23

Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 9 yds to the NAVY 46

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.37

Rahjai Harris run for 2 yds to the NAVY 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.93

Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 9 yds to the NAVY 35

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.95

Katin Houser pass incomplete

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.59

Rahjai Harris run for 4 yds to the NAVY 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.26

Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 14 yds to the NAVY 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 3 yds to the NAVY 14

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Rahjai Harris run for 5 yds to the NAVY 9

3rd & 2Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.63

Katin Houser pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 9 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Brandon Chatman run for 7 yds to the NAVY 32

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.82

Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the NAVY 33

3rd & 2Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA +1.05

Braxton Woodson pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 2 yds to the NAVY 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+27 ydsPPA +2.15

Eli Heidenreich run for 27 yds to the ECU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+38 ydsPPA +3.09

Braxton Woodson run for 38 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood PAT BLOCKED)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Lance Gossett kickoff for 63 yds , Jhari Patterson return for 19 yds to the ECU 21

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.09

Katin Houser pass complete to Tyler Savage for 14 yds to the ECU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return+27 ydsPPA -1.76

Katin Houser pass intercepted Kyle Jacob return for 27 yds to the ECU 15

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Eli Heidenreich run for 5 yds to the ECU 10

0th & 0Penalty-5 yds

Navy Penalty, False Start (Javan Bouton) to the ECU 8

2nd & 5Rushing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.48

Braxton Woodson 10 Yd Run (Nathan Kirkwood Kick)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+16 yds

Lance Gossett kickoff for 55 yds , Marlon Gunn Jr. return for 16 yds to the ECU 15

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.01

Katin Houser pass complete to Anthony Smith for 16 yds to the ECU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.51

Katin Houser pass complete to Jhari Patterson for 16 yds to the ECU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Rahjai Harris run for 1 yd to the ECU 48

2nd & 9Passing Touchdown+52 ydsPPA +5.01

Katin Houser pass complete to Yannick Smith for 52 yds for a TD (Andrew Conrad KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Andrew Conrad kickoff for 9 yds , Gavin Noe return for no gain to the ECU 44

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.42

(01:27) [NHSG] Kneel down by WOODSON, Braxton at ECU46 (team loss of 2), clock 01:24.

2nd & 12Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.38

[NH] Kneel down by WOODSON, Braxton at ECU48 (team loss of 2), clock 00:47.

3rd & 14Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.77

(00:24) [NH] Kneel down by WOODSON, Braxton at ECU50 (team loss of 2), clock 00:16.

Situational Analysis

Navy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
43%
28 plays
2nd
50%
4 plays
43%
7 plays
33%
12 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
60%
5 plays
50%
6 plays
67%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
0%
2 plays

East Carolina

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
39%
28 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
25%
4 plays
38%
16 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
25%
4 plays
50%
6 plays
0%
1 play
4th
0%
2 plays
100%
1 play