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← Back to GamesNov 9, 2024Week 11
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

South Florida by 1.3

Home Win Probability

South Florida 51%

Market (Bovada)

South Florida +4.5

Edge: South Florida +4.5 (5.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 9, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
NavyNavy
1470728
South FloridaSouth Florida
00077

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-70-140-210-287-28
South FloridaNavy

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NAVSFNAVSFNAVSFNAVSFNAVSFNAVSFNAVSFNAVSFNAVSFNAVSFNAVSFNAVSFNAVTD470ydTO856ydTD1379ydPUNT31ydTO513ydDOWNS716ydPUNT511ydPUNT39ydPUNT3-3ydPUNT30ydPUNT30ydPUNT3-3ydPUNT522ydTO541ydTD253ydPUNT37ydPUNT614ydTO846ydPUNT37ydPUNT734ydTD1387ydDOWNS970ydPUNT618ydTD1075ydEND2-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Navy and South Florida
StatisticNavySouth Florida
Passing6-1126-44
Pass Yards58282
Rush Yards32160
Total Yards379342
Turnovers13
3rd Down7-178-16
Penalties3-254-25
Possession38:3221:28

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Navy
passing
Blake Horvath
6/11, 58 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Eli Heidenreich
6 CAR, 84 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Alex Tecza
1 REC, 38 YDS, 1 TD
defense
South Florida
passing
Bryce Archie
26/43, 282 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Kelley Joiner Jr.
9 CAR, 23 YDS
receiving
Jeyquan Smith
2 REC, 85 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.10

Blake Horvath run for a loss of 2 yards to the NAVY 28

2nd & 12Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.44

Eli Heidenreich run for 8 yds to the NAVY 36

3rd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.59

Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the NAVY 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+60 ydsPPA +4.76

Eli Heidenreich run for 60 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Kelley Joiner run for 2 yds to the USF 27

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Kelley Joiner run for 4 yds to the USF 31

3rd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.47

Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 5 yds to the USF 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Kelley Joiner run for 6 yds to the USF 42

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.96

Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd to the USF 43

3rd & 3Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +3.09

Bryce Archie pass complete to JeyQuan Smith for 37 yds to the NAVY 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd to the NAVY 19

2nd & 9Pass Interception Return+11 ydsPPA -4.09

Bryce Archie pass intercepted Kyle Jacob return for 11 yds to the NAVY 21

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Eli Heidenreich run for 5 yds to the NAVY 26

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the NAVY 29

3rd & 2Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.56

Amin Hassan run for 9 yds to the NAVY 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Daba Fofana run for 4 yds to the NAVY 42

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Alex Tecza run for 5 yds to the NAVY 47

3rd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.53

Blake Horvath run for 8 yds to the USF 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the USF 43

2nd & 8Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.72

Alex Tecza run for a loss of 3 yards to the USF 46

3rd & 11Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.81

Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 12 yds to the USF 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Blake Horvath pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.95

Daba Fofana run for 12 yds to the USF 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Eli Heidenreich run for 2 yds to the USF 20

2nd & 8Rushing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +2.87

Brandon Chatman run for 20 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Ta'Ron Keith run for 1 yd to the USF 26

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

Ta'Ron Keith run for no gain to the USF 26

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Bryce Archie pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Eli Heidenreich at the NAVY 38

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Blake Horvath run for 6 yds to the NAVY 44

2nd & 4Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.86

Eli Heidenreich run for 8 yds to the USF 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.31

Blake Horvath run for a loss of 1 yard to the USF 49

2nd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the USF 46

3rd & 8Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.31

Blake Horvath sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the USF 49 Blake Horvath fumbled, recovered by USF Decarius Hawthorne , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Sean Atkins pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.01

Bryce Archie pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +3.16

Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 18 yds to the NAVY 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Bryce Archie pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.65

Kelley Joiner run for 1 yd to the NAVY 32

3rd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Kelley Joiner run for 4 yds to the NAVY 28

4th & 5Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.66

Bryce Archie sacked by Luke Pirris and Landon Robinson for a loss of 7 yards to the NAVY 35

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Blake Horvath run for 6 yds to the NAVY 41

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.75

Alex Tecza run for 6 yds to the NAVY 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Blake Horvath pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Blake Horvath run for no gain to the NAVY 47

3rd & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.70

Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 46

4th & 11Punt+1 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 40 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 1 yd to the USF 15

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Bryce Archie run for 4 yds to the USF 19

2nd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Bryce Archie pass complete to Nay'Quan Wright for 4 yds to the USF 23

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Nay'Quan Wright run for 1 yd to the USF 24

4th & 1Punt+49 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 49 yds , Eli Heidenreich returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NAVY 26

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Navy Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NAVY 21

1st & 15Rush0 ydsPPA -0.35

Blake Horvath run for no gain to the NAVY 21

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Blake Horvath pass incomplete

3rd & 15Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.05

Amin Hassan run for 2 yds to the NAVY 23

4th & 13Punt+5 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 49 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 5 yds to the USF 33

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Bryce Archie pass incomplete

1st & 10Penalty+56 yds

(07:08) KEITH, Ta'Ron rush to the right for a gain of 56 yards to the USF33 (WILLIAMS JR., Mbiti), 1ST DOWN, clock 07:03. PENALTY USF Holding on SINGLETON, Keshaun NAV Personal Foul on WILLIAMS JR., Mbiti , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Bryce Archie pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Bryce Archie pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt+14 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 53 yds , Eli Heidenreich returns for 14 yds to the NAVY 28

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the NAVY 32

2nd & 6Penalty-5 yds

Navy Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NAVY 27

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Blake Horvath pass incomplete

3rd & 11Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.14

Blake Horvath pass complete to Amin Hassan for 1 yd to the NAVY 28

4th & 10Punt+22 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 59 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 22 yds to the USF 35

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Kelley Joiner run for 2 yds to the USF 37

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Bryce Archie pass incomplete

3rd & 8Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.61

Bryce Archie sacked by MarcAnthony Parker for a loss of 5 yards to the USF 32

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 54 yds, downed at the NAVY 14

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 6 yds to the NAVY 20

2nd & 4Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.65

Daba Fofana run for 9 yds to the NAVY 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.83

Brandon Chatman run for no gain to the NAVY 29

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Blake Horvath run for 3 yds to the NAVY 32

3rd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the NAVY 36

4th & 3Punt+16 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 54 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 16 yds to the USF 16

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.99

Bryce Archie pass complete to Joshua Porter for 9 yds to the USF 25

2nd & 1Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA -0.02

Bryce Archie pass complete to Joshua Porter for 6 yds to the USF 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Bryce Archie pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 5 yds to the USF 36

2nd & 5Penalty+15 yds

Navy Penalty, Personal Foul (Kyle Jacob) to the NAVY 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return+36 ydsPPA -3.65

Bryce Archie pass intercepted Irabonoise Oniha return for 36 yds to the NAVY 47

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.00

Alex Tecza run for 15 yds to the USF 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+38 ydsPPA +3.09

Blake Horvath pass complete to Alex Tecza for 38 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)

0th & 10End of Half+75 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+12 yds

Lance Gossett kickoff for 52 yds , Ta'Ron Keith return for 12 yds to the USF 25

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 6 yds to the USF 31

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Ta'Ron Keith run for 1 yd to the USF 32

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Bryce Archie pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 40 yds, downed at the NAVY 33

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Alex Tecza run for 3 yds to the NAVY 36

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Blake Horvath run for 5 yds to the NAVY 41

3rd & 2Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.80

Daba Fofana run for 8 yds to the NAVY 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.80

Brandon Chatman run for a loss of 3 yards to the NAVY 46

2nd & 13Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.66

Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the NAVY 47

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.53

Blake Horvath pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 43 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Bryce Archie pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Bryce Archie pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.97

Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 11 yds to the USF 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Kelley Joiner run for 2 yds to the USF 23

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Bryce Archie pass complete to Brandon Winton for 6 yds to the USF 29

3rd & 2Rush+35 ydsPPA +3.50

Bryce Archie run for 35 yds to the NAVY 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.55

Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 1 yd to the NAVY 35

2nd & 9Sack-9 ydsPPA -2.71

Bryce Archie sacked for a loss of 9 yards to the NAVY 44 Bryce Archie fumbled, recovered by NAVY Jordan Sanders , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the NAVY 47

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the NAVY 49

3rd & 5Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 2 yds to the USF 49

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Sean Atkins at the USF 6

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.34

Nay'Quan Wright run for 7 yds to the USF 13

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Nay'Quan Wright run for 2 yds to the USF 15

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.29

JeyQuan Smith run for 1 yd to the USF 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.63

Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 22 yds to the USF 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Bryce Archie pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Bryce Archie pass complete to Joshua Porter for 2 yds to the USF 40

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Bryce Archie pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Andrew Stokes punt for 47 yds, downed at the NAVY 13

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Eli Heidenreich run for 1 yd to the NAVY 14

2nd & 9Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.10

Blake Horvath run for 13 yds to the NAVY 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Alex Tecza run for 4 yds to the NAVY 31

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the NAVY 35

3rd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.42

Blake Horvath run for 5 yds to the NAVY 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Alex Tecza run for 5 yds to the NAVY 45

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.95

Blake Horvath run for 1 yd to the NAVY 46

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Alex Tecza run for 2 yds to the NAVY 48

4th & 2Rush+34 ydsPPA +3.55

Landon Robinson run for 34 yds to the USF 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.05

Blake Horvath sacked by Tawfiq Byard for a loss of 7 yards to the USF 25

2nd & 17Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.21

Daba Fofana run for a loss of 2 yards to the USF 27

3rd & 19Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.82

Daba Fofana run for 17 yds to the USF 10

4th & 2Rushing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +3.03

Blake Horvath run for 10 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Bryce Archie pass complete to Ta'Ron Keith for 6 yds to the USF 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.69

Bryce Archie pass complete to Ta'Ron Keith for 6 yds to the USF 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Bryce Archie run for 2 yds to the USF 39

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.84

Bryce Archie pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+48 ydsPPA +4.00

Bryce Archie pass complete to JeyQuan Smith for 48 yds to the NAVY 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Bryce Archie pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

South Florida Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NAVY 18

2nd & 15Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.32

Ta'Ron Keith run for 9 yds to the NAVY 9

3rd & 6Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Bryce Archie pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 4 yds to the NAVY 5

4th & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -4.09

Bryce Archie run for no gain to the NAVY 5

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.50

Daba Fofana run for 8 yds to the NAVY 13

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.48

Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the NAVY 14

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.31

Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the NAVY 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Daba Fofana run for 1 yd to the NAVY 17

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Daba Fofana run for 4 yds to the NAVY 21

3rd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the NAVY 23

4th & 3Punt+8 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 60 yds , Sean Atkins returns for 8 yds to the USF 25

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Bryce Archie pass complete to Kelley Joiner for 3 yds to the USF 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.23

Bryce Archie pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 8 yds to the USF 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.70

Bryce Archie sacked by Chreign LaFond for a loss of 5 yards to the USF 31

2nd & 15Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.31

Bryce Archie pass complete to Brandon Winton for no gain to the USF 31

3rd & 15Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +3.47

Bryce Archie pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 21 yds to the NAVY 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Bryce Archie pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.00

Bryce Archie pass complete to Keshaun Singleton for 20 yds to the NAVY 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.50

Bryce Archie pass complete to Brandon Winton for 8 yds to the NAVY 20

2nd & 2Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA -0.27

Bryce Archie pass complete to Sean Atkins for 7 yds to the NAVY 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.54

Bryce Archie pass complete to Michael Brown-Stephens for 13 yds for a TD (John Cannon KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Nico Gramatica kickoff for 13 yds , Eli Heidenreich return for no gain to the USF 48

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Shane Reynolds run for no gain to the USF 48

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.42

(00:31) Kneel down by WOODSON, Braxton at USF50 (team loss of 2), clock 00:22.

Situational Analysis

Navy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
35%
26 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
1 play
57%
7 plays
40%
10 plays
17%
6 plays
3rd
100%
5 plays
25%
4 plays
0%
3 plays
40%
5 plays
4th
100%
2 plays

South Florida

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
33%
27 plays
2nd
0%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
21%
14 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
38%
8 plays
100%
1 play
4th
0%
1 play
0%
1 play