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← Back to GamesOct 5, 2024Week 6
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Toledo by 13.1

Home Win Probability

Toledo 79%

Market (Bovada)

Toledo -4.5

Edge: Toledo -4.5 (8.6 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 5, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Miami (OH)Miami (OH)
337720
ToledoToledo
1463730

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142814-317-317-623-630-1330-20
ToledoMiami (OH)

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20M(M(M(TOLM(TOLM(TOLM(TOLTOLM(TOLM(TOLM(TOLM(M(TOLPUNT521ydPUNT35ydFG1168ydTO1067ydPUNT413ydFG1062ydFG764ydTO839ydPUNT30ydFG845ydFG946ydPUNT3-2ydPUNT422ydPUNT623ydPUNT3-8ydTD433ydTD875ydTD1575ydTO1065ydEND413yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Miami (OH) and Toledo
StatisticMiami (OH)Toledo
Passing23-4627-39
Pass Yards296318
Rush Yards5478
Total Yards350396
Turnovers12
3rd Down10-185-14
Penalties5-436-40
Possession30:1129:49

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Miami (OH)
passing
Brett Gabbert
23/46, 296 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Keyon Mozee
11 CAR, 40 YDS
receiving
Javon Tracy
10 REC, 119 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Toledo
passing
Tucker Gleason
27/38, 318 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Connor Walendzak
12 CAR, 54 YDS
receiving
Jerjuan Newton
8 REC, 127 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+61 yds

Michael Denning kickoff for 61 yds , Kevin Davis return for no gain to the M-OH 13 , return for no gain to the M-OH 13 , Raion Strader return for no gain to the M-OH 13

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Keyon Mozee run for 1 yd to the M-OH 14

2nd & 9Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.96

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 11 yds to the M-OH 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Jordan Brunson run for 5 yds to the M-OH 30

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Keyon Mozee run for 4 yds to the M-OH 34

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Jordan Brunson run for no gain to the M-OH 34

4th & 1Punt+32 yds

Alec Bevelhimer punt for 40 yds , Bryson Hammer returns for 32 yds to the M-OH 37

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+14 yds

Michael Denning kickoff for 58 yds , Kevin Davis return for 14 yds to the M-OH 21

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Keyon Mozee run for 5 yds to the M-OH 26

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

4th & 5Blocked Punt0 yds

punt blocked by Avery Smith blocked by Avery Smith , returns for no gain to the M-OH 18

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+14 yds

Michael Denning kickoff for 55 yds , Kevin Davis return for 14 yds to the M-OH 24

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.67

Brett Gabbert run for no gain to the M-OH 24

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.16

Keyon Mozee run for 6 yds to the M-OH 30

3rd & 4Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +3.04

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Andre Johnson for 23 yds to the TOL 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.77

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 16 yds to the TOL 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Miami (OH) Penalty, False Start (Kolby Borders) to the TOL 36

1st & 15Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Jordan Brunson run for 3 yds to the TOL 33

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

3rd & 12Penalty+5 yds

Toledo Penalty, Offsides (D'Andre Ragin) to the TOL 28

3rd & 7Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.13

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 14 yds to the TOL 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Keyon Mozee run for 1 yd to the TOL 13

3rd & 9Penalty+5 yds

Toledo Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the TOL 8

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

4th & 4Field Goal Good+26 yds

Dom Dzioban 26 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Tucker Gleason pass complete to Thomas Zsiros for 10 yds to the TOL 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.01

Connor Walendzak run for no gain to the TOL 35

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.96

Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 9 yds to the TOL 44

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.11

Connor Walendzak run for 2 yds to the TOL 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.92

Tucker Gleason pass complete to Thomas Zsiros for 8 yds to the M-OH 46

2nd & 2Penalty+15 yds

Miami (OH) Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Matt Salopek) to the M-OH 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.37

Sevaughn Clark run for no gain to the M-OH 20

2nd & 10Penalty+3 yds

Miami (OH) Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Kobe Hilton) to the M-OH 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Tucker Gleason pass incomplete

2nd & 8Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.32

Tucker Gleason pass intercepted Corban Hondru return for no gain to the M-OH 3

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.30

Keyon Mozee run for 11 yds to the M-OH 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+2 ydsPPA -0.12

Brett Gabbert run for 2 yds to the M-OH 16 Brett Gabbert fumbled, recovered by M-OH Brett Gabbert B. Gabbert return for 0 yds

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt-5 yds

Alec Bevelhimer punt for 44 yds , Bryson Hammer returns for a loss of 5 yards to the TOL 35

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.01

Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the TOL 35

2nd & 10Pass Reception+40 ydsPPA +3.56

Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 40 yds to the M-OH 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Tucker Gleason run for 4 yds to the M-OH 21

2nd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.20

Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 8 yds to the M-OH 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Jacquez Stuart run for 3 yds to the M-OH 10

2nd & 7Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.70

Jacquez Stuart run for 9 yds to the M-OH 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Tucker Gleason run for no gain to the M-OH 1

2nd & 1Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.55

Tucker Gleason pass complete to Anthony Torres for no gain to the M-OH 1

3rd & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.46

Connor Walendzak run for a loss of 2 yards to the M-OH 3

4th & 3Field Goal Good+21 yds

Dylan Cunanan 21 Yd Field Goal

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Michael Denning kickoff for 65 yds , Kevin Davis return for 19 yds to the M-OH 19

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.51

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 7 yds to the M-OH 26

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.80

Keyon Mozee run for no gain to the M-OH 26

3rd & 3Pass Reception+51 ydsPPA +4.07

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 51 yds to the TOL 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Keyon Mozee run for 6 yds to the TOL 17

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

4th & 4Field Goal Good+35 yds

Dom Dzioban 35 Yd Field Goal

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Kellan McLaughlin kickoff for 64 yds , Jacquez Stuart return for 21 yds to the TOL 22

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 4 yds to the TOL 26

2nd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.94

Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 7 yds to the TOL 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+9 yds

(01:54) GLEASON, Tucker pass to the right incomplete intended for DOTTIN, Jaden thrown to the TOLEDO45, clock 01:55. PENALTY MIAMI Pass Interference on STRADER, Raion enforced at the spot of the foul for 9 yards to the TOLEDO42 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.95

Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 11 yds to the M-OH 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.74

Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 15 yds to the M-OH 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Tucker Gleason pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-10 yds

Toledo Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jacquez Stuart) to the M-OH 39

2nd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Tucker Gleason pass incomplete

3rd & 17Pass Interception Return+11 ydsPPA -1.23

Tucker Gleason pass intercepted Corban Hondru return for 11 yds to the M-OH 36

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Alec Bevelhimer punt for 39 yds , Bryson Hammer returns for no gain to the TOL 25

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.24

Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-5 ydsPPA -2.19

Tucker Gleason run for a loss of 5 yards to the TOL 45 Tucker Gleason fumbled, recovered by TOL Tucker Gleason T. Gleason return for 0 yds

2nd & 15Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.39

Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for 11 yds to the M-OH 44

3rd & 4Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.82

Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 14 yds to the M-OH 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Tucker Gleason pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.76

Tucker Gleason pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Tucker Gleason pass incomplete

4th & 10Field Goal Good+48 yds

Dylan Cunanan 48 Yd Field Goal

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+12 yds

Michael Denning kickoff for 45 yds , Lynel Billups-Williams return for 12 yds to the M-OH 32

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jaden Dottin for 10 yds to the TOL 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Jacquez Stuart run for 2 yds to the TOL 37

2nd & 8Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.95

Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 12 yds to the TOL 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.36

Jacquez Stuart run for a loss of 1 yard to the TOL 48

2nd & 11Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.47

Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jaden Dottin for 22 yds to the M-OH 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Tucker Gleason pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.58

Jerjuan Newton run for 1 yd to the M-OH 29

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Tucker Gleason pass incomplete

4th & 9Field Goal Good+47 yds

Dylan Cunanan 47 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Keyon Mozee run for 4 yds to the M-OH 29

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

3rd & 6Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.48

Brett Gabbert sacked by Darius Alexander for a loss of 6 yards to the M-OH 23

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Alec Bevelhimer punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 22

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.00

Tucker Gleason pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 23 yds to the TOL 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Tucker Gleason pass complete to Zy'marion Lang for 4 yds to the TOL 49

2nd & 6Pass Reception-5 ydsPPA -2.06

Tucker Gleason pass complete to Junior Vandeross III for a loss of 5 yards to the TOL 44

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Tucker Gleason pass incomplete

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Emilio Duran punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the M-OH 17

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.69

Brett Gabbert sacked by Darius Alexander for a loss of 4 yards to the M-OH 13

2nd & 14Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.11

Jordan Brunson run for 7 yds to the M-OH 20

3rd & 7Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.60

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 12 yds to the M-OH 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Kevin Davis run for 1 yd to the M-OH 33

2nd & 9Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.80

Keyon Mozee run for a loss of 3 yards to the M-OH 30

3rd & 12Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.46

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 10 yds to the M-OH 40

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Alec Bevelhimer punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Bryson Hammer at the TOL 10

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.43

Sevaughn Clark run for a loss of 2 yards to the TOL 8

2nd & 12Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Tucker Gleason run for 5 yds to the TOL 13

3rd & 7Sack-11 ydsPPA -0.19

Tucker Gleason sacked by Adam Trick for a loss of 11 yards to the TOL 2

4th & 18Punt+7 yds

Emilio Duran punt for 38 yds , Cade McDonald returns for 7 yds to the TOL 33

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.46

Jordan Brunson run for 2 yds to the TOL 31

3rd & 8Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.58

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 22 yds to the TOL 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Kevin Davis 9 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Dom Dzioban Kick)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Connor Walendzak run for 4 yds to the TOL 29

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Connor Walendzak run for 5 yds to the TOL 34

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.86

Tucker Gleason run for 1 yd to the TOL 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.05

Tucker Gleason pass complete to Thomas Zsiros for 25 yds to the M-OH 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+32 ydsPPA +0.87

Connor Walendzak run for 32 yds to the M-OH 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Connor Walendzak run for 2 yds to the M-OH 6

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Tucker Gleason run for 5 yds to the M-OH 1

3rd & 1Passing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Anthony Torres 1 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 9 yds to the M-OH 34

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.28

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.25

Keyon Mozee run for 5 yds to the M-OH 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Brett Gabbert run for 4 yds to the M-OH 43

3rd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.41

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 9 yds to the TOL 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Brett Gabbert run for no gain to the TOL 48

2nd & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.06

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 23 yds to the TOL 25

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 5 yds to the TOL 20

3rd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.57

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kam Perry for 7 yds to the TOL 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.30

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.70

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 10 yds to the TOL 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Passing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Javon Tracy 3 Yd pass from Brett Gabbert (Dom Dzioban Kick)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.93

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 14 yds to the M-OH 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kam Perry for 8 yds to the M-OH 47

2nd & 2Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.07

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 4 yds to the TOL 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.92

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 14 yds to the TOL 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 6 yds to the TOL 29

2nd & 4Penalty+9 yds

Toledo Penalty, Personal Foul (Braden Awls) to the TOL 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return+39 ydsPPA -4.49

Brett Gabbert pass intercepted Braden Awls return for 39 yds to the TOL 45

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Connor Walendzak run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.70

Connor Walendzak run for 2 yds to the M-OH 48

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.88

Connor Walendzak run for 1 yd to the M-OH 47

4th & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +2.45

Tucker Gleason run for 5 yds to the M-OH 42 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Miami (OH)

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
31%
26 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
33%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
47%
15 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
43%
7 plays
71%
7 plays
100%
1 play
4th

Toledo

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
37%
27 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
67%
6 plays
57%
7 plays
75%
4 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
100%
1 play
0%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play