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← Back to GamesAug 31, 2024Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Miami (OH) by 4.4

Home Win Probability

Northwestern 38%

Market (Bovada)

Northwestern -3

Edge: Miami (OH) +3 (7.4 pts)

fitted_v1 · Aug 31, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Miami (OH)Miami (OH)
30036
NorthwesternNorthwestern
307313

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40143-310-313-313-6
NorthwesternMiami (OH)

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NORM(NORM(NORM(NORM(NORM(M(NORM(NORM(NORM(NORM(NORPUNT631ydPUNT58ydFG520ydFG1156ydTO515ydMISS56ydPUNT68ydPUNT34ydTO1059ydEND833ydPUNT36ydTD862ydPUNT839ydFG1077ydTO625ydPUNT3-11ydFG862ydMISS839ydTO738ydEND318yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Miami (OH) and Northwestern
StatisticMiami (OH)Northwestern
Passing22-3718-30
Pass Yards227178
Rush Yards40150
Total Yards267328
Turnovers22
3rd Down5-145-11
Penalties3-154-35
Possession28:3831:22

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Miami (OH)
passing
Brett Gabbert
22/37, 227 YDS, 2 INT
rushing
Jordan Brunson
8 CAR, 33 YDS
receiving
Cade McDonald
8 REC, 105 YDS
defense
Matthew Salopek
0.5 TFL, 1 PD
Northwestern
passing
Mike Wright
18/30, 178 YDS
rushing
Mike Wright
9 CAR, 65 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Bryce Kirtz
6 REC, 91 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.80

Mike Wright pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 20 yds to the NU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Cam Porter run for 4 yds to the NU 49

2nd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.09

Mike Wright pass complete to Frank Covey IV for 8 yds to the M-OH 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.84

Mike Wright pass complete to A.J. Henning for a loss of 4 yards to the M-OH 47

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.95

Mike Wright pass incomplete

3rd & 14Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Mike Wright pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 3 yds to the M-OH 44

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Luke Akers punt for 32 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 5 yds to the M-OH 17

2nd & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.51

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for 7 yds to the M-OH 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Kevin Davis run for 4 yds to the M-OH 28

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.62

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

3rd & 6Penalty-8 yds

Miami (OH) Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Brett Gabbert) to the M-OH 20

4th & 14Punt0 yds

punt for 28 yds

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +0.92

Mike Wright run for 20 yds to the M-OH 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-6 ydsPPA -1.44

Mike Wright pass complete to Frank Covey IV for a loss of 6 yards to the M-OH 34

2nd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Mike Wright pass incomplete

3rd & 16Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Caleb Komolafe run for 6 yds to the M-OH 28

4th & 10Field Goal Good+45 yds

Jack Olsen 45 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.51

Dylan Downing run for 7 yds to the M-OH 26

2nd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -0.80

Keyon Mozee run for no gain to the M-OH 26

3rd & 3Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.87

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Javon Tracy for 13 yds to the M-OH 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 5 yds to the M-OH 44

2nd & 5Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.94

Brett Gabbert sacked by Mac Uihlein for a loss of 5 yards to the M-OH 39

3rd & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +3.59

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 23 yds to the NU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.37

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for 12 yds to the NU 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Keyon Mozee run for 6 yds to the NU 20

2nd & 4Penalty-5 yds

Miami (OH) Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NU 25

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

4th & 9Field Goal Good+43 yds

Dom Dzioban 43 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Northwestern Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NU 18

1st & 15Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the NU 19

2nd & 14Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.91

Mike Wright pass complete to Frank Covey IV for 13 yds to the NU 32

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.98

Cam Porter run for 3 yds to the NU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Cam Porter run for 5 yds to the NU 40

2nd & 5Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-2 ydsPPA -1.87

Mike Wright run for a loss of 2 yards to the NU 38 Mike Wright fumbled, recovered by M-OH Brian Ugwu B. Ugwu return for 0 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.37

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for 12 yds to the NU 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.64

Keyon Mozee run for no gain to the NU 26

3rd & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.14

Brett Gabbert sacked by Kenny Soares Jr. and Anto Saka for a loss of 6 yards to the NU 32

4th & 16Field Goal Missed+50 yds

Dom Dzioban 50 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Cam Porter run for 3 yds to the NU 35

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Mike Wright pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.30

Mike Wright pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 9 yds to the NU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.93

Mike Wright run for a loss of 4 yards to the NU 40

2nd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Mike Wright pass incomplete

3rd & 14Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Mike Wright pass incomplete

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Luke Akers punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the M-OH 16

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Dylan Downing run for 3 yds to the M-OH 19

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.36

Keyon Mozee run for no gain to the M-OH 19

3rd & 7Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.13

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Kevin Davis for 1 yd to the M-OH 20

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Alec Bevelhimer punt for 40 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the NU 40

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Caleb Komolafe run for 4 yds to the NU 44

2nd & 6Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.08

Mike Wright pass complete to A.J. Henning for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.59

Mike Wright pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 7 yds to the M-OH 43

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.11

Caleb Komolafe run for 4 yds to the M-OH 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.62

run for 1 yd to the M-OH 38

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Mike Wright pass incomplete

3rd & 9Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.02

Cam Porter run for 12 yds to the M-OH 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.21

Mike Wright pass complete to Frank Covey IV for 16 yds to the M-OH 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.61

Cam Porter run for 9 yds to the M-OH 1

2nd & 1Fumble Recovery (Opponent)0 ydsPPA -5.10

Mike Wright run for no gain to the M-OH 1 Mike Wright fumbled, recovered by M-OH Matt Salopek M. Salopek return for 0 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Jordan Brunson run for 3 yds to the M-OH 4

2nd & 7Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.65

Jordan Brunson run for 15 yds to the M-OH 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.08

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 9 yds to the M-OH 28

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.67

Jordan Brunson run for 1 yd to the M-OH 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Jordan Brunson run for 6 yds to the M-OH 35

3rd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.61

(00:01) [NHSG] Kneel down by MOH at MOH34 (team loss of 1).

0th & 4End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Jordan Brunson run for 6 yds to the M-OH 31

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt+14 yds

Alec Bevelhimer punt for 45 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 14 yds to the NU 38

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.11

Mike Wright pass complete to A.J. Henning for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Cam Porter run for 4 yds to the M-OH 46

2nd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Mike Wright pass complete to A.J. Henning for 5 yds to the M-OH 41

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.78

Mike Wright run for 3 yds to the M-OH 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Mike Wright pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.99

Joseph Himon II run for no gain to the M-OH 38

3rd & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.33

Mike Wright pass complete to Thomas Gordon for 25 yds to the M-OH 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.54

Mike Wright run for 13 yds for a TD (Jack Olsen KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Dylan Downing run for 4 yds to the M-OH 19

2nd & 6Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.35

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 15 yds to the M-OH 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Keyon Mozee run for 7 yds to the M-OH 41

2nd & 3Sack-6 ydsPPA -2.17

Brett Gabbert sacked by Najee Story for a loss of 6 yards to the M-OH 35

3rd & 9Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +3.19

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 18 yds to the NU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Dylan Downing for 3 yds to the NU 44

2nd & 7Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.55

Keyon Mozee run for a loss of 2 yards to the NU 46

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Alec Bevelhimer punt for 43 yds

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Caleb Komolafe run for 5 yds to the NU 8

2nd & 5Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.62

Mike Wright pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 14 yds to the NU 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +2.80

Mike Wright pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 33 yds to the M-OH 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.23

Caleb Komolafe run for a loss of 1 yard to the M-OH 46

2nd & 11Penalty+10 yds

WRIGHT, Mike pass to the left incomplete intended for JOHNSON II, Calvin broken up by STRADER, Raion at the MOH33, clock 01:51. PENALTY MOH Holding on STRADER, Raion enforced 10 yards from the MOH46 to the MOH36 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.40

Cam Porter run for 7 yds to the M-OH 29

2nd & 3Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA -0.01

Mike Wright pass complete to Calvin Johnson II for 9 yds to the M-OH 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.37

Mike Wright run for no gain to the M-OH 20

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Mike Wright pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Mike Wright pass incomplete

4th & 10Field Goal Good+38 yds

Jack Olsen 38 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Dylan Downing for 10 yds to the M-OH 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.18

Jordan Brunson run for a loss of 1 yard to the M-OH 34

2nd & 11Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.58

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Coldiron for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -1.02

Brett Gabbert pass intercepted Evan Smith return for no gain to the NU 33

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.96

Mike Wright pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-10 yds

(12:33) HIMON II, Joseph rush to the left for a gain of 2 yards to the NWN35 (WISE, Ty), clock 12:34. PENALTY NWN Holding on HERZOG, Nick enforced 10 yards from the NWN33 to the NWN23 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.11

Mike Wright pass incomplete

3rd & 20Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Joseph Himon II run for 4 yds to the NU 27

4th & 16Penalty-5 yds

Northwestern Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the NU 22

4th & 21Punt0 yds

Luke Akers punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the M-OH 31

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.95

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 10 yds to the M-OH 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +1.69

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Cade McDonald for 24 yds to the NU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty+15 yds

Northwestern Penalty, Roughing the Passer on SAKA, Anto enforced (Anto Saka) to the NU 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Coldiron for 4 yds to the NU 10

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Jordan Brunson run for 2 yds to the NU 8

3rd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Jordan Brunson run for 1 yd to the NU 7

4th & 3Field Goal Good+26 yds

Dom Dzioban 26 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.81

Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the NU 35

2nd & 9Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.87

Cam Porter run for 10 yds to the NU 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Cam Porter run for 1 yd to the NU 46

2nd & 9Rush+19 ydsPPA +2.23

Mike Wright run for 19 yds to the M-OH 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Mike Wright pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.91

Mike Wright pass complete to A.J. Henning for no gain to the M-OH 35

3rd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.67

Mike Wright pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 8 yds to the M-OH 27

4th & 2Field Goal Missed+45 yds

Jack Olsen 45 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Brett Gabbert run for 4 yds to the M-OH 31

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.71

Brett Gabbert pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.21

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Andre Johnson for 11 yds to the M-OH 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.02

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 12 yds to the NU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.53

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Reggie Virgil for 10 yds to the NU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.55

Brett Gabbert pass complete to Dylan Downing for 1 yd to the NU 35

2nd & 9Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -3.44

Brett Gabbert pass intercepted Robert Fitzgerald return for no gain to the NU 25

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Cam Porter run for 3 yds to the NU 28

2nd & 7Rush+16 ydsPPA +2.00

Mike Wright run for 16 yds to the NU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

(00:45) [SG] Kneel down by WRIGHT, Mike at NWN43 (team loss of 1), clock 00:37.

Situational Analysis

Miami (OH)

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
52%
27 plays
2nd
0%
3 plays
29%
7 plays
25%
8 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
100%
2 plays
25%
4 plays
29%
7 plays
4th

Northwestern

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
39%
28 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
33%
3 plays
80%
5 plays
38%
8 plays
20%
5 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
80%
5 plays
25%
4 plays
4th