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← Back to GamesNov 17, 2024Week 12
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Texas State by 32.1

Home Win Probability

Texas State 96%

Market (Bovada)

Texas State -27.5

Edge: Texas State -27.5 (4.6 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 17, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Southern MissSouthern Miss
03003
Texas StateTexas State
211317758

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842567-014-021-327-341-344-351-358-3
Texas StateSouthern Miss

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20TSSMTSSMTSSMTSSMTSSMSMTSSMSMTSSMTSSMTSSMTSSMTSSMTD1287ydPUNT414ydTD788ydPUNT32ydTD541ydFG1346ydTD470ydPUNT34ydPUNT734ydPUNT63ydTO412ydTD474ydEND213ydPUNT30ydTD469ydDOWNS850ydFG1153ydPUNT36ydTD160ydDOWNS1453ydTD489ydPUNT411ydPUNT728ydEND3-5yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Southern Miss and Texas State
StatisticSouthern MissTexas State
Passing9-2027-34
Pass Yards70437
Rush Yards124266
Total Yards194703
Turnovers11
3rd Down4-186-10
Penalties3-155-55
Possession34:4325:17

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Southern Miss
passing
Tate Rodemaker
6/15, 63 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Rodrigues Clark
15 CAR, 66 YDS
receiving
Kenyon Clay
5 REC, 43 YDS
defense
Texas State
passing
Jordan McCloud
23/28, 335 YDS, 4 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Lincoln Pare
2 CAR, 74 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Kole Wilson
6 REC, 116 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 6 yds to the TXST 19

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 21

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.60

Ismail Mahdi run for 2 yds to the TXST 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+42 ydsPPA +3.24

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 42 yds to the USM 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.53

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 1 yd to the USM 34

2nd & 9Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Konner Fox for 4 yds to the USM 30

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Jordan McCloud run for 4 yds to the USM 26

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.02

Deion Hankins run for 1 yd to the USM 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -0.81

Jordan McCloud sacked by Jalil Clemons for a loss of 3 yards to the USM 28

2nd & 13Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 3 yds to the USM 25

3rd & 10Penalty+5 yds

(10:46) No Huddle-Shotgun McCloud,Jordan pass incomplete deep right to Williams,Jaden thrown to USM00 PENALTY USM Offside (Moore,Caleb) 5 yards from USM25 to USM20. NO PLAY.

3rd & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.58

Ismail Mahdi run for 9 yds to the USM 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.52

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 11 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.84

Ethan Crawford run for 10 yds to the USM 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Ethan Crawford pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 1 yd to the USM 36

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.57

Kenyon Clay run for 1 yd to the USM 37

3rd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Ethan Crawford run for 2 yds to the USM 39

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Bryce Lofton punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Joey Hobert at the TXST 12

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Bryce Lofton punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Joey Hobert at the TXST 12

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Kole Wilson

2nd & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.18

Jordan McCloud run for 15 yds to the TXST 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.64

Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 1 yd to the TXST 28

2nd & 9Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +3.67

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 39 yds to the USM 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Konner Fox for 3 yds to the USM 30

2nd & 7Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.44

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 7 yds to the USM 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +2.66

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Konner Fox for 23 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Ethan Crawford run for no gain to the USM 25

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Kenyon Clay run for 5 yds to the USM 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Ethan Crawford pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 2 yds to the USM 32

4th & 3Penalty-5 yds

(04:19) PENALTY USM False Start (Sledge,Avery) 5 yards from USM32 to USM27. NO PLAY.

4th & 8Punt+42 yds

Bryce Lofton punt for 56 yds , Joey Hobert returns for 42 yds to the USM 41 Joey Hobert fumbled, recovered by TXST Michael Boudoin III

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Ismail Mahdi

2nd & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.42

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Beau Sparks for 16 yds to the USM 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.65

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 9 yds to the USM 16

2nd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA -0.46

Jordan McCloud run for 6 yds to the USM 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.51

Brad Jackson run for 10 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.42

Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Davis Dalton for 16 yds to the USM 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.34

Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 40

2nd & 11Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.24

Tate Rodemaker run for 11 yds to the TXST 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the TXST 47

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete to Tiaquelin Mims

3rd & 8Rush+10 ydsPPA +2.43

Ethan Crawford run for 10 yds to the TXST 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.57

Ethan Crawford run for 1 yd to the TXST 36

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Ethan Crawford run for 4 yds to the TXST 32

3rd & 5Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.12

Ethan Crawford run for 12 yds to the TXST 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.37

Ethan Crawford run for no gain to the TXST 20

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the TXST 19

3rd & 9Sack-10 ydsPPA -2.66

Ethan Crawford sacked for a loss of 10 yards to the TXST 29

4th & 19Field Goal Good+46 yds

Connor Gibbs 46 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Chris Dawn Jr.

2nd & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +3.14

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 26 yds to the USM 44 for a 1ST down Southern Miss Penalty, Defensive Offside (Andrew Stein) declined for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.48

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Beau Sparks for 10 yds to the USM 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

(09:40) No Huddle-Shotgun McCloud,Jordan pass incomplete short right to Williams,Jaden thrown to USM33 PENALTY USM Offside (Clemons,Jalil) 5 yards from USM34 to USM29. NO PLAY.

1st & 5Passing Touchdown+29 ydsPPA +2.16

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jaden Williams for 29 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Ethan Crawford pass complete to Larry Simmons for 4 yds to the USM 29

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Ethan Crawford pass incomplete to Larry Simmons

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Ethan Crawford pass incomplete to Davis Dalton

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Bryce Lofton punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Joey Hobert at the TXST 23

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Deion Hankins run for 4 yds to the TXST 27

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Deion Hankins run for 2 yds to the TXST 29

3rd & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.65

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 8 yds to the TXST 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.29

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Joey Hobert for 14 yds to the USM 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.10

Jordan McCloud run for no gain to the USM 49

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 6 yds to the USM 43

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.10

Jordan McCloud pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt0 yds

David Nunez punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the USM 5

4th & 4Punt0 yds

David Nunez punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tiaquelin Mims at the USM 5

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Rodrigues Clark run for 1 yd to the USM 6

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Rodrigues Clark run for 5 yds to the USM 11

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.54

Ethan Crawford run for 5 yds to the USM 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-12 ydsPPA -0.79

Ethan Crawford sacked for a loss of 12 yards to the USM 4

2nd & 22Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.03

Rodrigues Clark run for a loss of 3 yards to the USM 1

3rd & 25Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.01

Rodrigues Clark run for 7 yds to the USM 8

4th & 18Punt+14 yds

Bryce Lofton punt for 52 yds , Kole Wilson returns for 14 yds to the USM 46

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.54

Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 11 yds to the TXST 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 1 yd to the TXST 33

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.84

Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete to Larry Simmons

3rd & 9Interception0 ydsPPA -2.72

Tate Rodemaker pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +2.77

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kole Wilson for 33 yds to the USM 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.54

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Beau Sparks for 16 yds to the USM 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.14

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 10 yds to the USM 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +2.56

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Ismail Mahdi for 15 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.84

JQ Gray run for 10 yds to the USM 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

JQ Gray run for 3 yds to the USM 38

0th & 10End of Half+3 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Kenyon Clay run for no gain to the USM 25

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.35

Kenyon Clay run for no gain to the USM 25

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete to Larry Simmons

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Bryce Lofton punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Kole Wilson at the TXST 31

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 4 yds to the TXST 35

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 4 yds to the TXST 39

3rd & 2Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.42

Jordan McCloud pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for 4 yds to the TXST 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+57 ydsPPA +4.47

Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 57 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Rodrigues Clark run for 3 yds to the USM 28

2nd & 7Rush+27 ydsPPA +2.90

Rodrigues Clark run for 27 yds to the TXST 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Rodrigues Clark run for 2 yds to the TXST 43

2nd & 8Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.38

Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Kenyon Clay for 21 yds to the TXST 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.60

Kenyon Clay run for a loss of 2 yards to the TXST 24

2nd & 12Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.79

Kenyon Clay run for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 25

3rd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.95

Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete to Kyirin Heath

4th & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.01

Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete to Davis Dalton

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Deion Hankins run for 1 yd to the TXST 26

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Deion Hankins run for 2 yds to the TXST 28

3rd & 7Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.37

Brad Jackson pass complete to Titus Lyons for 14 yds to the TXST 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

(06:17) PENALTY SWT False Start 5 yards from SWT42 to SWT37. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Rush+16 ydsPPA +2.16

Brad Jackson run for 16 yds to the USM 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Brad Jackson run for 6 yds to the USM 41

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Lincoln Pare run for 6 yds to the USM 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +0.78

Brad Jackson pass complete to Kole Wilson for 28 yds to the USM 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.41

Brad Jackson pass complete to Chris Dawn Jr. for no gain to the USM 7

2nd & 7Penalty-15 yds

(03:35) No Huddle-Shotgun Jackson,Brad pass incomplete short middle to Wilson,Kole thrown to USM02 PENALTY SWT Pass Interference (Lyons,Titus) 15 yards from USM07 to USM22. NO PLAY.

2nd & 22Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Chris Dawn Jr.

3rd & 22Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Brad Jackson pass incomplete to Chris Dawn Jr.

4th & 22Field Goal Good+40 yds

Mason Shipley 40 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete to Larry Simmons

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete to Davis Dalton

3rd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.08

Tate Rodemaker pass complete to Tiaquelin Mims for 6 yds to the USM 31

4th & 4Punt+12 yds

Bryce Lofton punt for 41 yds , Kole Wilson returns for 12 yds to the TXST 40

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+60 ydsPPA +4.76

Brad Jackson pass complete to Drew Donley for 60 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+31 yds

Brendan Franke kickoff for 60 yds , JQ Gray return for 31 yds to the USM 36

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Rodrigues Clark run for 4 yds to the USM 40

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Kenyon Clay run for 2 yds to the USM 42

3rd & 4Rush+9 ydsPPA +2.17

Kenyon Clay run for 9 yds to the TXST 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.78

Kenyon Clay run for a loss of 3 yards to the USM 48

2nd & 13Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.23

Kenyon Clay run for a loss of 3 yards to the USM 45

3rd & 16Penalty+15 yds

Texas State Penalty, Roughing The Passer (James Neal) to the TXST 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.12

Tate Rodemaker sacked by Jermy Jackson Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the TXST 40

2nd & 18Penalty+5 yds

(12:57) No Huddle-Shotgun Rodemaker,Tate pass incomplete deep right to Jackson,Dannis thrown to SWT08 broken up by Thompson,Donte PENALTY SWT Offside (Jackson Jr.,Jermy) 5 yards from SWT40 to SWT35. NO PLAY.

2nd & 13Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Rodrigues Clark run for 3 yds to the TXST 32

3rd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Rodrigues Clark run for 6 yds to the TXST 26

4th & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.44

JQ Gray run for 6 yds to the TXST 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.37

JQ Gray run for no gain to the TXST 20

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.47

Tate Rodemaker pass incomplete to Ray Daly Jr.

3rd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.47

Rodrigues Clark run for 9 yds to the TXST 11

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -4.00

Rodrigues Clark run for no gain to the TXST 11

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.43

PJ Hatter run for 10 yds to the TXST 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.54

PJ Hatter run for 7 yds to the TXST 28

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.27

PJ Hatter run for 4 yds to the TXST 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+68 ydsPPA +5.52

Lincoln Pare run for 68 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.22

JQ Gray run for 14 yds to the USM 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.30

JQ Gray run for a loss of 1 yard to the USM 38

2nd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -0.64

JQ Gray run for no gain to the USM 38

3rd & 11Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.42

JQ Gray run for a loss of 2 yards to the USM 36

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Bryce Lofton punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Beau Sparks at the TXST 14

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.58

PJ Hatter run for 11 yds to the TXST 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Deion Hankins run for 2 yds to the TXST 27

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

PJ Hatter run for 6 yds to the TXST 33

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.15

Deion Hankins run for 3 yds to the TXST 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.21

Deion Hankins run for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 35

2nd & 11Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.63

PJ Hatter run for a loss of 1 yard to the TXST 34

3rd & 12Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.30

PJ Hatter run for 8 yds to the TXST 42

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Lars Rau punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Zay Franks at the USM 35

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.32

JQ Gray run for a loss of 2 yards to the USM 33

2nd & 12Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.65

JQ Gray run for a loss of 4 yards to the USM 29

3rd & 16Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.10

JQ Gray run for 1 yd to the USM 30

Situational Analysis

Southern Miss

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
19%
27 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
33%
12 plays
14%
7 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
50%
8 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
0%
1 play
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

Texas State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
59%
34 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
50%
2 plays
25%
4 plays
78%
9 plays
0%
3 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
50%
4 plays
100%
1 play
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play