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← Back to GamesDec 1, 2024Week 14
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Air Force by 2.9

Home Win Probability

San Diego State 41%

Market (Bovada)

San Diego State +5.5

Edge: San Diego State +5.5 (2.6 pts)

fitted_v1 · Dec 1, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Air ForceAir Force
14314031
San Diego StateSan Diego State
770620

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-77-147-1714-1714-2414-3120-31
San Diego StateAir Force

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20AFSDSAFSDSAFSDSAFSDSAFSDSAFSDSAFSDSAFTD981ydTD1076ydTD1075ydPUNT723ydFG1062ydTD1483ydEND16ydDOWNS1244ydTD488ydDOWNS424ydTD1066ydTD774ydPUNT626ydDOWNS1419ydEND510yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Air Force and San Diego State
StatisticAir ForceSan Diego State
Passing2-225-33
Pass Yards128236
Rush Yards280120
Total Yards408356
Turnovers00
3rd Down6-98-14
Penalties2-256-48
Possession31:2128:39

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Air Force
passing
Quentin Hayes
1/1, 76 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Dylan Carson
24 CAR, 125 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Cade Harris
1 REC, 76 YDS, 1 TD
defense
San Diego State
passing
Danny O'Neil
24/32, 230 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Marquez Cooper
23 CAR, 94 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Louis Brown
3 REC, 60 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+4 yds

Gabriel Plascencia kickoff for 50 yds , Parker Menefee return for 4 yds to the AFA 19

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the AFA 24

2nd & 5Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.11

Quentin Hayes run for 11 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Quentin Hayes run for 4 yds to the AFA 39

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the AFA 43

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.28

Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Owen Allen run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 5Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.84

Quentin Hayes run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 47

3rd & 8Pass Reception+52 ydsPPA +5.07

Brandon Engel pass complete to Jared Roznos for 52 yds to the SDSU 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Dylan Carson run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+20 yds

Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 61 yds , Ja'Shaun Poke return for 20 yds to the SDSU 24

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.90

Danny O'Neil pass complete to Nate Bennett for 11 yds to the SDSU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the SDSU 36

2nd & 9Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Danny O'Neil pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 3 yds to the SDSU 39

3rd & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +2.18

Danny O'Neil pass complete to Nate Bennett for 7 yds to the SDSU 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Marquez Cooper run for no gain to the SDSU 46

2nd & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.93

Danny O'Neil pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 10 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +0.73

Danny O'Neil pass complete to Marquez Cooper for 20 yds to the AFA 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the AFA 20

2nd & 6Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.52

Danny O'Neil pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 13 yds to the AFA 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.20

Marquez Cooper run for 7 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the AFA 29

2nd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.74

Quentin Hayes run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 28

3rd & 7Rush+18 ydsPPA +2.75

Quentin Hayes run for 18 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.21

Dylan Carson run for 9 yds to the SDSU 45

2nd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.21

Kade Frew run for 5 yds to the SDSU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.43

Owen Allen run for 12 yds to the SDSU 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Owen Allen run for 1 yd to the SDSU 27

2nd & 9Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.62

Kade Frew run for 14 yds to the SDSU 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.60

Dylan Carson run for 12 yds to the SDSU 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+17 yds

Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 59 yds , Ja'Shaun Poke return for 17 yds to the SDSU 23

1st & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -0.81

Danny O'Neil sacked by Blake Fletcher for a loss of 2 yards to the SDSU 21

2nd & 12Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.79

Marquez Cooper run for 11 yds to the SDSU 32

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.98

Marquez Cooper run for 3 yds to the SDSU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.15

Danny O'Neil pass complete to Mekhi Shaw for 12 yds to the SDSU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.15

Marquez Cooper run for no gain to the SDSU 47

2nd & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.12

Danny O'Neil pass complete to Jude Wolfe for a loss of 1 yard to the SDSU 46

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.54

Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Ja'Shaun Poke

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Tyler Pastula punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Brandon Engel at the AFA 10

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Tyler Pastula punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Brandon Engel at the AFA 10

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.86

Dylan Carson run for 17 yds to the AFA 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the AFA 32

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.68

Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the AFA 33

3rd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.47

Quentin Hayes run for 4 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the AFA 39

2nd & 8Rush+38 ydsPPA +3.04

Kade Frew run for 23 yds to the SDSU 38 for a 1ST down San Diego State Penalty, (15 Yards) to the SDSU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Owen Allen run for 3 yds to the SDSU 20

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Owen Allen run for 2 yds to the SDSU 18

3rd & 5Penalty-10 yds

(07:39) No Huddle Frew,Kade rush left for 7 yards gain to the SDSU11 (White,Trey) PENALTY AFA Holding (Harris,Cade) 10 yards from SDSU18 to SDSU28. NO PLAY.

3rd & 15Rush0 ydsPPA -1.00

Quentin Hayes run for no gain to the SDSU 28

4th & 15Field Goal Good+45 yds

Matthew Dapore 45 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+12 yds

Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 60 yds , Jordan Napier return for 12 yds to the SDSU 17

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.73

Marquez Cooper run for 8 yds to the SDSU 25

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.73

Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the SDSU 26

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.60

Danny O'Neil run for 1 yd to the SDSU 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Danny O'Neil pass complete to Cam Davis for 2 yds to the SDSU 25

2nd & 12Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Danny O'Neil pass complete to Cam Davis for 4 yds to the SDSU 29

3rd & 8Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.49

Danny O'Neil pass complete to Michael Harrison for 14 yds to the SDSU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.74

Danny O'Neil sacked by Blake Fletcher for a loss of 3 yards to the SDSU 40

2nd & 13Rush+18 ydsPPA +2.91

Marquez Cooper run for 18 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +0.63

Danny O'Neil run for 19 yds to the AFA 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Ja'Shaun Poke

2nd & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.57

Danny O'Neil pass complete to Jude Wolfe for 13 yds to the AFA 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Marquez Cooper run for 7 yds to the AFA 3

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Marquez Cooper run for 1 yd to the AFA 2

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.54

Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds for a TD (Gabriel Plascencia KICK)

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Kaden Cloud run for 6 yds to the AFA 31

0th & 10End of Half+6 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Matthew Dapore kickoff for 21 yds , Brady Anderson return for no gain to the SDSU 44

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Marquez Cooper run for 4 yds to the SDSU 48

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.81

Danny O'Neil pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 6 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Danny O'Neil pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 4 yds to the AFA 40

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.62

Marquez Cooper run for 7 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.34

Marquez Cooper run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 37

2nd & 14Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Danny O'Neil run for 3 yds to the AFA 34

3rd & 11Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.05

Danny O'Neil pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 19 yds to the AFA 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Jordan Napier

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Louis Brown IV

3rd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.37

Danny O'Neil pass complete to Marquez Cooper for 9 yds to the AFA 6

4th & 1Rush-6 ydsPPA -4.13

Marquez Cooper run for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 12

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the AFA 16

2nd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.51

Dylan Carson run for 6 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Quentin Hayes run for 2 yds to the AFA 24

2nd & 8Passing Touchdown+76 ydsPPA +6.67

Quentin Hayes pass complete to Cade Harris for 76 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+33 yds

Matthew Dapore kickoff for 56 yds , Chris Johnson return for 33 yds to the SDSU 42

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

PENALTY AFA Personal Foul 15 yards from SDSU42 to AFA43, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.91

Marquez Cooper run for 9 yds to the AFA 34

2nd & 1Penalty-5 yds

(07:25) Shotgun O'Neil,Danny pass incomplete short left to Bennett,Nate thrown to AFA30 PENALTY SDSU Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Fuimaono,Saipale) 5 yards from AFA34 to AFA39. NO PLAY.

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.76

Cam Davis run for 1 yd to the AFA 38

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Ja'Shaun Poke

4th & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -1.70

Danny O'Neil run for 4 yds to the AFA 34

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Dylan Carson run for 6 yds to the AFA 40

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.76

Dylan Carson run for 6 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.92

Dylan Carson run for 8 yds to the SDSU 46

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the SDSU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.69

Kade Frew run for 8 yds to the SDSU 35

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Owen Allen run for 3 yds to the SDSU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.46

Owen Allen run for 1 yd to the SDSU 31

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.34

Cade Harris run for 7 yds to the SDSU 24

3rd & 2Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.44

Kade Frew run for 10 yds to the SDSU 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +2.55

Dylan Carson run for 14 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+23 yds

Matthew Dapore kickoff for 62 yds , Ja'Shaun Poke return for 23 yds to the SDSU 26

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.28

Danny O'Neil pass complete to Michael Harrison for 9 yds to the SDSU 35

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.30

Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Nate Bennett

3rd & 1Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY SDSU False Start (Williams,Nate) 5 yards from SDSU35 to SDSU30. NO PLAY.

3rd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.95

Danny O'Neil pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 9 yds to the SDSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.31

Danny O'Neil pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 15 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+36 ydsPPA +1.03

Danny O'Neil pass complete to Louis Brown IV for 36 yds to the AFA 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the AFA 8

2nd & 8Passing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.68

Danny O'Neil pass complete to Marquez Cooper for 8 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+15 yds

Gabriel Plascencia kickoff for 55 yds , Cade Harris return for 15 yds to the AFA 25

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the AFA 30

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the AFA 32

3rd & 3Rush+13 ydsPPA +2.19

Kade Frew run for 13 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Dylan Carson run for no gain to the AFA 45

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Quentin Hayes run for 2 yds to the AFA 47

3rd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Kade Frew run for 4 yds to the SDSU 49

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Luke Freer punt for 40 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Danny O'Neil pass complete to Nate Bennett for 3 yds to the SDSU 12

2nd & 7Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.03

Marquez Cooper run for 15 yds to the SDSU 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Danny O'Neil run for 5 yds to the SDSU 32

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.52

Marquez Cooper run for 2 yds to the SDSU 34

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.48

Danny O'Neil run for 1 yd to the SDSU 35

4th & 2Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +2.17

Tyler Pastula pass complete to Chris Johnson for 6 yds to the SDSU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.14

Marquez Cooper run for no gain to the SDSU 41

2nd & 10Penalty-10 yds

(05:57) No Huddle-Shotgun O'Neil,Danny rush right for 5 yards gain to the SDSU46 (Fletcher,Blake), out of bounds PENALTY SDSU Holding (Fuimaono,Saipale) 10 yards from SDSU41 to SDSU31. NO PLAY.

2nd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Louis Brown IV

3rd & 20Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.00

Danny O'Neil pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 17 yds to the SDSU 48

4th & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +2.56

Danny O'Neil run for 4 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Danny O'Neil pass incomplete to Mekhi Shaw

2nd & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)0 ydsPPA -1.05

Danny O'Neil run for no gain to the AFA 48 Danny O'Neil fumbled, recovered by AFA Marquez Cooper

3rd & 10Penalty-8 yds

San Diego State Penalty, (-8 Yards) to the SDSU 44

4th & 18Sack-7 ydsPPA +0.18

Danny O'Neil sacked by Aiden Swartz for a loss of 7 yards to the SDSU 37

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the SDSU 32

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the SDSU 29

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.66

Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the SDSU 28

4th & 1Penalty+5 yds

(01:51) No Huddle-Shotgun Hayes,Quentin rush middle for 1 yard gain to the SDSU27 (White,Trey) PENALTY SDSU Offside (McLaughlin,Jelani) 5 yards from SDSU28 to SDSU23, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.52

Q. Hayes takes a knee

2nd & 11Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.12

Q. Hayes takes a knee

Situational Analysis

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
2 plays
58%
24 plays
2nd
0%
3 plays
33%
9 plays
67%
6 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
75%
4 plays
100%
1 play
67%
3 plays
0%
1 play
4th

San Diego State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
43%
28 plays
2nd
0%
3 plays
40%
5 plays
50%
8 plays
40%
5 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
75%
4 plays
100%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
4th
67%
3 plays
0%
1 play
100%
1 play