Skip to main content
← Back to GamesOct 20, 2024Week 8
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Colorado State by 4.6

Home Win Probability

Air Force 37%

Market (Bovada)

Air Force +6

Edge: Air Force +6 (1.4 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 20, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Colorado StateColorado State
0147021
Air ForceAir Force
0001313

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-140-217-2113-21
Air ForceColorado State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20CSAFCSAFCSAFCSAFCSAFCSAFAFCSAFCSAFCSAFCSAFCSAFCSAFTO673ydPUNT632ydPUNT39ydPUNT34ydPUNT520ydPUNT37ydPUNT1047ydPUNT38ydTD341ydTO13ydTD528ydMISS1047ydPUNT732ydTD390ydPUNT521ydPUNT30ydTO913ydTO1053ydTD473ydPUNT417ydTD1075ydPUNT3-5ydTO817ydPUNT3-2ydDOWNS1224yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Colorado State and Air Force
StatisticColorado StateAir Force
Passing12-2210-26
Pass Yards201175
Rush Yards205173
Total Yards406348
Turnovers23
3rd Down4-116-20
Penalties4-430-0
Possession28:4431:16

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Colorado State
passing
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi
11/21, 178 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Avery Morrow
20 CAR, 132 YDS
receiving
Caleb Goodie
3 REC, 103 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Air Force
passing
John Busha
10/25, 175 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Dylan Carson
12 CAR, 60 YDS
receiving
Tylor Latham
3 REC, 51 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +2.12

Avery Morrow run for 16 yds to the CSU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 4 yds to the CSU 45

2nd & 6Rush+50 ydsPPA +2.94

Avery Morrow run for 50 yds to the AFA 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Justin Marshall run for 4 yds to the AFA 1

2nd & 1Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-1 ydsPPA -5.10

Avery Morrow run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 2 Avery Morrow fumbled, recovered by AFA Osaro Aihie O. Aihie return for 0 yds

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Terrence Gist run for 2 yds to the AFA 4

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.19

Cade Harris run for 7 yds to the AFA 11

3rd & 1Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.34

Josh Johnson run for 20 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the AFA 35

2nd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.96

Tylor Latham run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 34

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Josh Johnson pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Luke Freer punt for 54 yds

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.88

Avery Morrow run for 9 yds to the CSU 21

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.86

Avery Morrow run for no gain to the CSU 21

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Paddy Turner punt for 35 yds, downed at the AFA 44

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Josh Johnson run for 2 yds to the AFA 46

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Tylor Latham run for 3 yds to the AFA 49

3rd & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.06

Josh Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 48

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 43 yds

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.28

Justin Marshall run for 1 yd to the CSU 10

2nd & 9Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.72

Jalen Dupree run for 10 yds to the CSU 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Avery Morrow run for 4 yds to the CSU 24

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 4 yds to the CSU 28

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.40

Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the CSU 29

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Paddy Turner punt for 44 yds, downed at the AFA 27

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Josh Johnson run for 5 yds to the AFA 32

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.82

Tylor Latham run for no gain to the AFA 32

3rd & 5Fumble Recovery (Own)+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Terrence Gist run for 2 yds to the AFA 34 Terrence Gist fumbled, recovered by AFA Terrence Gist T. Gist return for 0 yds

4th & 3Punt+56 yds

Luke Freer punt for 56 yds , Kobe Johnson returns for no gain to the CSU 8 , returns for no gain to the CSU 8

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Avery Morrow run for 2 yds to the CSU 10

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.23

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for 7 yds to the CSU 17

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.34

Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the CSU 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Avery Morrow run for 3 yds to the CSU 21

2nd & 7Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +1.95

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for 19 yds to the CSU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Avery Morrow run for 1 yd to the CSU 41

2nd & 9Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +2.06

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Caleb Goodie for 12 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

(10:50) FOWLER-NICOLOSI, Brayden scrambles up the middle for no gain to the AF47 (TOMASI, James), clock 10:45. PENALTY CSU Personal Foul on MOSS, Drew enforced 15 yards from the AF47 to the CSU38. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 25Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete

2nd & 25Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.08

Avery Morrow run for 6 yds to the CSU 44

3rd & 19Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.72

Avery Morrow run for 11 yds to the AFA 45

4th & 8Punt0 yds

punt for 44 yds, downed at the AFA 1

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the AFA 4

2nd & 7Fumble Recovery (Own)0 ydsPPA -0.19

TEAM run for no gain to the AFA 4 fumbled, recovered by AFA Dylan Carson D. Carson return for 0 yds

3rd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Cade Harris run for 5 yds to the AFA 9

4th & 2Punt+4 yds

Luke Freer punt for 36 yds , Lavon Brown returns for 4 yds to the AFA 41

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Caleb Goodie run for 4 yds to the AFA 37

2nd & 6Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.67

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Vince Brown II for 14 yds to the AFA 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +2.66

Kobe Johnson pass complete to Vince Brown II for 23 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+3 ydsPPA -0.92

Kemper Hodges run for 3 yds to the AFA 28 Kemper Hodges fumbled, recovered by CSU Buom Jock B. Jock return for 0 yds

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.21

Jalen Dupree run for 13 yds to the AFA 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Jalen Dupree run for 7 yds to the AFA 8

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.79

Jalen Dupree run for 5 yds to the AFA 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Jalen Dupree run for 2 yds to the AFA 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Jalen Dupree run for 1 yd for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the AFA 29

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.54

Cade Harris run for 1 yd to the AFA 30

3rd & 5Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.98

John Busha run for 10 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Terrence Gist run for 5 yds to the AFA 45

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.44

Tylor Latham run for 3 yds to the AFA 48

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.86

Tylor Latham run for 1 yd to the AFA 49

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +2.19

John Busha run for 2 yds to the CSU 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +0.89

John Busha pass complete to Jared Roznos for 17 yds to the CSU 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Terrence Gist run for 4 yds to the CSU 28

2nd & 6Blocked Field Goal+45 yds

Matthew Dapore 45 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by

0th & 6End of Half-44 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+21 ydsPPA +1.89

Dylan Carson run for 21 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the AFA 48

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Dylan Carson run for 3 yds to the CSU 49

3rd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.86

Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the CSU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.75

John Busha run for 1 yd to the CSU 43

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

John Busha pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.95

John Busha pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Lavon Brown at the CSU 10

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Avery Morrow run for 5 yds to the CSU 15

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete

3rd & 5Passing Touchdown+85 ydsPPA +7.11

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Caleb Goodie for 85 yds for a TD (Jordan Noyes KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

John Busha run for 9 yds to the AFA 34

2nd & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.36

Tylor Latham run for 9 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.56

Tylor Latham run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 41

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

John Busha pass incomplete

3rd & 12Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Terrence Gist run for 5 yds to the AFA 46

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Luke Freer punt for 54 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Paddy Turner punt for 25 yds

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.51

Dylan Carson run for 7 yds to the CSU 38

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.76

John Busha run for 1 yd to the CSU 37

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.81

Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the CSU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.64

John Busha run for no gain to the CSU 33

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

John Busha pass incomplete

3rd & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.61

John Busha sacked by James Mitchell and Mukendi Wa-Kalonji for a loss of 3 yards to the CSU 36

4th & 13Penalty+8 yds

(05:11) BUSHA, John pass up the middle incomplete intended for ROZNOS, Jared broken up by LONG, Owen at the CSU25, clock 05:08. PENALTY CSU Pass Interference on LONG, Owen enforced at the spot of the foul for 8 yards to the CSU28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Dylan Carson run for 4 yds to the CSU 24

2nd & 6Sack-8 ydsPPA -1.96

John Busha sacked by Mukendi Wa-Kalonji for a loss of 8 yards to the CSU 32

3rd & 14Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -2.23

John Busha pass intercepted, touchback. Dylan Phelps return for no gain

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.80

Justin Marshall run for 8 yds to the CSU 28

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.97

Justin Marshall run for no gain to the CSU 28

3rd & 2Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA +0.95

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Dane Olson for 3 yds to the CSU 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Justin Marshall run for 3 yds to the CSU 34

2nd & 7Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.68

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Jamari Person for 24 yds to the AFA 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.13

Justin Marshall run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 43

2nd & 11Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Avery Morrow for 2 yds to the AFA 41

3rd & 9Rush+10 ydsPPA +2.19

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi run for 10 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Jalen Dupree run for 2 yds to the AFA 29

2nd & 8Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+2 ydsPPA -3.85

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Armani Winfield for 2 yds Armani Winfield fumbled, recovered by AFA Lincoln Tuioti-Mariner L. Tuioti-Mariner return for 0 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

John Busha pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Cade Harris run for 2 yds to the AFA 29

3rd & 8Pass Reception+38 ydsPPA +4.05

John Busha pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 38 yds to the CSU 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+33 ydsPPA +2.90

John Busha pass complete to Tylor Latham for 33 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+22 yds

Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 62 yds , Kobe Johnson return for 22 yds to the CSU 25

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Avery Morrow run for 11 yds to the CSU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Avery Morrow run for no gain to the CSU 36

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass complete to Caleb Goodie for 6 yds to the CSU 42

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt+35 yds

Paddy Turner punt for 35 yds , Osaro Aihie returns for no gain to the AFA 25 , returns for no gain to the AFA 25

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Tylor Latham run for 3 yds to the AFA 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.23

John Busha pass complete to Tylor Latham for 8 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +2.45

John Busha pass complete to Quin Smith for 39 yds to the CSU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Cade Harris run for 4 yds to the CSU 21

2nd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.21

John Busha pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 9 yds to the CSU 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

John Busha run for 2 yds to the CSU 10

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.13

John Busha run for 6 yds to the CSU 4

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.35

John Busha run for 2 yds to the CSU 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

John Busha run for 1 yd to the CSU 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

John Busha run for 1 yd for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Reagan Tubbs kickoff for 42 yds , Kobe Johnson return for no gain to the CSU 23

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Colorado State Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the CSU 18

1st & 15Rush0 ydsPPA -0.29

Avery Morrow run for no gain to the CSU 18

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.06

Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi pass incomplete

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Paddy Turner punt for 62 yds, downed at the AFA 20

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.69

John Busha pass complete to Tylor Latham for 10 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.86

John Busha pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.39

John Busha pass complete to Cade Harris for 7 yds to the AFA 37

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.55

Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the AFA 38

4th & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.96

Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

John Busha run for 1 yd to the AFA 41

2nd & 9Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.26

John Busha sacked by Gabe Kirschke for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 37

3rd & 13Pass Interception Return+5 ydsPPA -0.07

John Busha pass intercepted Dom Jones return for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

(02:23) MORROW, Avery rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the AF46 (AIHIE, Osaro), clock 02:24. PENALTY CSU Personal Foul on MOSS, Drew enforced 15 yards from the CSU50 to the CSU35 [SG]. NO PLAY.

1st & 25Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Avery Morrow run for 3 yds to the CSU 38

2nd & 22Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Avery Morrow run for 5 yds to the CSU 43

3rd & 17Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Avery Morrow run for 5 yds to the CSU 48

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Paddy Turner punt for 33 yds , Brandon Engel returns for no gain to the AFA 19

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

John Busha run for 4 yds to the AFA 23

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

John Busha pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

John Busha pass incomplete

4th & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.81

John Busha pass complete to Cade Harris for 10 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-6 ydsPPA -1.59

John Busha sacked by Gabe Kirschke and Kennedy McDowell for a loss of 6 yards to the AFA 27

2nd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.21

John Busha pass incomplete

3rd & 16Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

John Busha pass complete to Cade Harris for 4 yds to the AFA 31

4th & 12Rush+12 ydsPPA +2.79

John Busha run for 12 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

John Busha pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

John Busha pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

John Busha pass incomplete

4th & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.03

John Busha pass incomplete

Situational Analysis

Colorado State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
35%
20 plays
0%
3 plays
2nd
40%
5 plays
50%
4 plays
78%
9 plays
50%
4 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
67%
3 plays
4th

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
30%
30 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
14%
7 plays
33%
12 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
40%
5 plays
33%
6 plays
25%
4 plays
4th
100%
2 plays
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
100%
1 play