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← Back to GamesOct 5, 2024Week 6
NavyNavy
34
-Final
7
Air ForceAir Force

House Prediction

Model Margin

Navy by 10.2

Home Win Probability

Air Force 24%

Market (Bovada)

Air Force +10

Edge: Navy -10 (0.2 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 5, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
NavyNavy
1476734
Air ForceAir Force
07007

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428420-70-147-147-217-277-34
Air ForceNavy

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFNAVAFPUNT2-2ydPUNT39ydTD1087ydTO514ydTD441ydPUNT38ydPUNT427ydTD581ydPUNT46ydPUNT38ydTD879ydPUNT520ydPUNT522ydEND1-1ydPUNT421ydTD1476ydDOWNS734ydMISS535ydDOWNS951ydTD575ydPUNT3-7ydPUNT37ydEND945yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Navy and Air Force
StatisticNavyAir Force
Passing9-155-9
Pass Yards134115
Rush Yards329158
Total Yards463273
Turnovers01
3rd Down4-123-13
Penalties5-454-35
Possession30:3429:26

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Navy
passing
Blake Horvath
9/15, 134 YDS
rushing
Blake Horvath
19 CAR, 115 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Eli Heidenreich
5 REC, 101 YDS
defense
Air Force
passing
Quentin Hayes
5/6, 115 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Christopher Frew
7 CAR, 29 YDS
receiving
James Roberson
1 REC, 45 YDS, 1 TD
defense
Camby Goff
0.5 TFL

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Eli Heidenreich run for 6 yds to the NAVY 31

2nd & 4Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.19

Blake Horvath pass complete to Alex Tecza for a loss of 3 yards to the NAVY 28

3rd & 7Penalty-5 yds

QB Keeper HORVATH, Blake rush up the middle for no gain to the NAVY28 (GROBE, Daniel). PENALTY Before the snap, NAVY False Start enforced 5 yards from the NAVY28 to the NAVY23. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 12Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 54 yds

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Kade Frew run for 6 yds to the AFA 29

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.80

Dylan Carson run for no gain to the AFA 29

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Kade Frew run for 3 yds to the AFA 32

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Luke Freer punt for 55 yds , Eli Heidenreich returns for no gain to the NAVY 13

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Brandon Chatman run for 1 yd to the NAVY 14

2nd & 9Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.89

Blake Horvath pass complete to Amin Hassan for 10 yds to the NAVY 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Blake Horvath run for 6 yds to the NAVY 30

2nd & 4Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.81

Eli Heidenreich run for 18 yds to the NAVY 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.88

Eli Heidenreich run for 8 yds to the AFA 44

2nd & 2Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.38

Blake Horvath run for 17 yds to the AFA 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Daba Fofana run for 2 yds to the AFA 25

2nd & 8Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.07

Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 24 yds to the AFA 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Daba Fofana run for no gain to the AFA 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Blake Horvath run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

John Busha run for 9 yds to the AFA 34

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Dylan Carson run for 2 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Kade Frew run for 3 yds to the AFA 39

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

John Busha pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Interception Return+21 ydsPPA -0.54

John Busha pass intercepted Dashaun Peele return for 21 yds to the AFA 41

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.67

Blake Horvath run for 1 yd to the AFA 40

2nd & 9Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Alex Tecza run for 6 yds to the AFA 34

3rd & 3Rush0 ydsPPA -1.01

Alex Tecza run for no gain to the AFA 34

4th & 3Rushing Touchdown+34 ydsPPA +4.65

Nathan Kent run for 34 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Cade Harris run for 4 yds to the AFA 29

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

John Busha run for 3 yds to the AFA 32

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.43

John Busha run for 1 yd to the AFA 33

4th & 2Punt+2 yds

Luke Freer punt for 57 yds , Eli Heidenreich returns for 2 yds to the NAVY 12

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.21

Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 20 yds to the NAVY 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the NAVY 36

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the NAVY 39

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Blake Horvath pass incomplete

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 42 yds

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.75

Kade Frew run for 11 yds to the AFA 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Quentin Hayes run for 6 yds to the AFA 36

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd to the AFA 37

3rd & 3Penalty+15 yds

Navy Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Rayuan Lane III) to the NAVY 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+45 ydsPPA +3.48

Quentin Hayes pass complete to Tre Roberson for 45 yds for a TD (Matthew Dapore KICK)

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.42

Blake Horvath run for 16 yds to the NAVY 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the NAVY 43

2nd & 8Penalty-15 yds

HORVATH, Blake pass to the right complete for 57 yards to HEIDENREICH, Eli caught at the NAVY40 and advanced to the AF0, TOUCHDOWN NAVY, score nullified by penalty (Play was confirmed after review). PENALTY NAVY Pass Interference on KENT, Nathan enforced 15 yards to the NAVY28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 23Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Blake Horvath pass incomplete

3rd & 23Penalty-5 yds

Navy Penalty, Delay Of Game (Mbiti Williams Jr.) to the NAVY 23

3rd & 28Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.03

Blake Horvath run for 8 yds to the NAVY 31

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 49 yds

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Quentin Hayes run for 5 yds to the AFA 25

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.61

Kade Frew run for no gain to the AFA 25

3rd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Kade Frew run for 3 yds to the AFA 28

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Luke Freer punt for 51 yds

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.28

Blake Horvath run for 16 yds to the NAVY 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Blake Horvath run for 3 yds to the NAVY 40

2nd & 7Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.38

Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 22 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +0.56

Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 25 yds to the AFA 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.61

Blake Horvath run for 9 yds to the AFA 4

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Daba Fofana run for no gain to the AFA 4

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.27

Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the AFA 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Blake Horvath run for 2 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Kade Frew run for 3 yds to the AFA 28

2nd & 7Rush+21 ydsPPA +2.45

Cade Harris run for 21 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Quentin Hayes pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.01

Tylor Latham run for no gain to the AFA 49

3rd & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.99

Quentin Hayes sacked by Jaxson Campbell for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 45

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Eli Heidenreich at the NAVY 18

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.05

Brandon Chatman run for 9 yds to the NAVY 27

2nd & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.29

Brandon Chatman run for 9 yds to the NAVY 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Blake Horvath pass complete to Brandon Chatman for 2 yds to the NAVY 38

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Blake Horvath run for 2 yds to the NAVY 40

3rd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.58

Eli Heidenreich run for no gain to the NAVY 40

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 60 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.63

[NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at AF19 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.42

Quentin Hayes run for 16 yds to the AFA 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Quentin Hayes run for 5 yds to the AFA 46

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.95

Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the AFA 47

3rd & 4Fumble Recovery (Own)-1 ydsPPA -1.05

Quentin Hayes run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 46 Quentin Hayes fumbled, recovered by AFA Quentin Hayes Q. Hayes return for 0 yds

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Luke Freer punt for 30 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Blake Horvath pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.28

Alex Tecza run for 1 yd to the NAVY 25

3rd & 9Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.76

Blake Horvath run for 9 yds to the NAVY 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Blake Horvath pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 6 yds to the NAVY 40

3rd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.71

Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the NAVY 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.89

Eli Heidenreich run for 11 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.73

Daba Fofana run for 8 yds to the AFA 37

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Blake Horvath pass incomplete

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -1.08

Alex Tecza run for no gain to the AFA 37

4th & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.90

Blake Horvath run for 4 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

HORVATH, Blake pass deep to the left incomplete intended for KENT, Nathan broken up by WILLIAMS, Trey at the AF3; QB hurried by AIHIE, Osaro. PENALTY AF Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, Trey enforced 15 yards to the AF18 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.62

Blake Horvath run for 9 yds to the AFA 9

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Brandon Chatman run for 2 yds to the AFA 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.20

Alex Tecza run for 7 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Dylan Carson run for 1 yd to the AFA 26

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd to the AFA 27

3rd & 8Penalty-5 yds

Air Force Penalty, False Start (Alex Moore) to the AFA 22

3rd & 13Pass Reception+34 ydsPPA +3.83

Quentin Hayes pass complete to Tylor Latham for 34 yds to the NAVY 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Terrence Gist run for 3 yds to the NAVY 41

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.58

Tylor Latham run for 2 yds to the NAVY 39

3rd & 5Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.86

Cade Harris run for a loss of 4 yards to the NAVY 43

4th & 9Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.83

Quentin Hayes pass complete to Tylor Latham for 2 yds to the NAVY 41

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +1.82

Blake Horvath pass complete to Eli Heidenreich for 28 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Daba Fofana run for 3 yds to the AFA 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Blake Horvath pass incomplete

3rd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Brandon Chatman run for 4 yds to the AFA 24

4th & 3Blocked Field Goal+41 yds

Nathan Kirkwood 41 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.23

Terrence Gist run for 9 yds to the AFA 33

2nd & 1Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.55

Terrence Gist run for 11 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd to the AFA 45

2nd & 9Pass Reception+29 ydsPPA +2.58

Quentin Hayes pass complete to Quin Smith for 29 yds to the NAVY 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

Navy Penalty, Offsides (Kyle Jacob) to the NAVY 21

1st & 5Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA -0.53

Quentin Hayes pass complete to Cade Harris for 5 yds to the NAVY 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.18

Dylan Carson run for 6 yds to the NAVY 10

2nd & 4Penalty-5 yds

CARSON, Dylan rush up the middle for no gain to the NAVY10 (NARAYAN, Tyler). PENALTY Before the snap, AF False Start on MOORE, Alex enforced 5 yards from the NAVY10 to the NAVY15. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Cade Harris run for 3 yds to the NAVY 12

3rd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd to the NAVY 11

4th & 5Sack-14 ydsPPA -3.75

Quentin Hayes sacked by Jaxson Campbell for a loss of 14 yards to the NAVY 25

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Brandon Chatman run for 3 yds to the NAVY 28

2nd & 7Rush+57 ydsPPA +3.82

Eli Heidenreich run for 57 yds to the AFA 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Isaiah Bryant run for 2 yds to the AFA 13

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Amin Hassan run for 1 yd to the AFA 12

3rd & 7Rushing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.99

Alex Tecza run for 12 yds for a TD (Nathan Kirkwood KICK)

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-4 ydsPPA -1.02

Josh Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 19 Josh Johnson fumbled, recovered by AFA Tylor Latham

2nd & 16Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.14

Josh Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 18

3rd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.05

Josh Johnson pass incomplete

4th & 17Punt0 yds

Luke Freer punt for 57 yds, fair catch by Eli Heidenreich at the NAVY 25

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Shane Reynolds run for 2 yds to the NAVY 27

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Amin Hassan run for 3 yds to the NAVY 30

3rd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Shane Reynolds run for 2 yds to the NAVY 32

4th & 3Punt+48 yds

Riley Riethman punt for 48 yds , Brandon Engel returns for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 10

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Owen Allen run for 7 yds to the AFA 17

2nd & 3Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.48

Owen Allen run for 10 yds to the AFA 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Kaden Cloud run for 2 yds to the AFA 29

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.45

Rocco Conti run for 1 yd to the AFA 30

3rd & 7Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.59

Josh Johnson run for 15 yds to the AFA 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Josh Johnson run for 3 yds to the AFA 48

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Josh Johnson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.77

Kemper Hodges run for 1 yd to the NAVY 49

4th & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +2.66

Josh Johnson run for 4 yds to the NAVY 45 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Navy

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
52%
27 plays
2nd
50%
6 plays
33%
3 plays
55%
11 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
25%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
100%
1 play
4th
100%
2 plays

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
50%
22 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
0%
5 plays
22%
9 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
0%
1 play
0%
6 plays
33%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play