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← Back to GamesAug 24, 2024Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Montana State by 18.6

Home Win Probability

New Mexico 12%

Market (Bovada)

New Mexico +10.5

Edge: Montana State -10.5 (8.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Aug 24, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Montana State
01402135
New MexicoNew Mexico
10147031

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-010-017-017-717-1424-1431-1431-2131-2831-35
New MexicoMontana State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NMMSMSNMMSNMMSNMMSNMMSNMMSMSNMMSNMMSNMMSNMMSNMPUNT635ydTD621ydPUNT526ydFG767ydDOWNS643ydTD868ydTD675ydPUNT34ydTD1076ydTD975ydPUNT514ydEND14ydTD3-5ydDOWNS1052ydMISS757ydTD1080ydMISS750ydDOWNS618ydPUNT35ydTD193ydPUNT512ydTD1189ydTO2-5yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Montana State and New Mexico
StatisticMontana StateNew Mexico
Passing21-3218-26
Pass Yards205172
Rush Yards362152
Total Yards567324
Turnovers21
3rd Down6-121-8
Penalties6-724-30
Possession34:4025:20

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Montana State
passing
Tommy Mellott
21/32, 205 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Adam Jones
17 CAR, 167 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Ty McCullouch
7 REC, 66 YDS, 1 TD
defense
McCade O'Reilly
1.5 TFL, 1 PD
New Mexico
passing
Devon Dampier
18/26, 172 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Eli Sanders
17 CAR, 87 YDS
receiving
Luke Wysong
6 REC, 95 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.22

Devon Dampier pass complete to Luke Wysong for 14 yds to the UNM 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Eli Sanders run for 3 yds to the UNM 42

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Devon Dampier pass incomplete

3rd & 7Penalty+15 yds

(14:14) DAMPIER, Devon pass deep to the right incomplete intended for TRUJILLO, Nic broken up by JACKSON, Miles at the MSU20, clock 14:07. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on JACKSON, Miles enforced 15 yards to the MSU43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Eli Sanders run for 3 yds to the MTST 40

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Devon Dampier pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Devon Dampier pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Aaron Rodriguez punt for 40 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.36

Scottre Humphrey run for 2 yds to the MTST 22

2nd & 8Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.89

Scottre Humphrey run for 17 yds to the MTST 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Tommy Mellott run for 5 yds to the MTST 44

2nd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.90

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Lonyatta Alexander Jr. for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

2nd & 10Fumble Return Touchdown+41 ydsPPA -9.04

Christian Ellis 41 Yd Fumble Return (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+5 yds

Charles Steinkamp kickoff for 40 yds , Dominic Solano return for 5 yds to the MTST 30

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.86

Tommy Mellott run for no gain to the MTST 30

2nd & 10Rush+23 ydsPPA +2.94

Scottre Humphrey run for 23 yds to the UNM 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.06

Adam Jones run for no gain to the UNM 47

3rd & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.33

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Rohan Jones for 3 yds to the UNM 44

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Brendan Hall punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Javen Jacobs at the UNM 5

1st & 10Penalty+11 yds

(08:00) DAMPIER, Devon scrambles to the left for a gain of 11 yards to the UNM5 (JOHNSON, Jon), 1ST DOWN, clock 07:50. PENALTY UNM Holding MSU Holding , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Penalty+12 yds

(07:38) DAMPIER, Devon pass to the right incomplete intended for DAVIS, Ryan thrown to the UNM17, clock 07:34. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on POWDRELL, Andrew enforced at the spot of the foul for 12 yards to the UNM17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Eli Sanders run for 1 yd to the UNM 18

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Eli Sanders run for 2 yds to the UNM 20

3rd & 7Pass Reception+53 ydsPPA +4.37

Devon Dampier pass complete to Luke Wysong for 53 yds to the MTST 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Devon Dampier pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.85

Devon Dampier run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTST 28

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

Devon Dampier pass incomplete

4th & 11Field Goal Good+45 yds

Luke Drzewiecki 45 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.71

Ty McCullouch run for 19 yds to the MTST 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

New Mexico Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Cam Watts) to the UNM 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 3 yds to the UNM 31

2nd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.94

Scottre Humphrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNM 32

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

4th & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.92

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 4 yds to the UNM 36

2nd & 6Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.74

Eli Sanders run for 13 yds to the UNM 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.86

Devon Dampier pass complete to Shawn Miller for 8 yds to the MTST 43

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Eli Sanders run for 4 yds to the MTST 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.44

Devon Dampier pass complete to Luke Wysong for 14 yds to the MTST 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.15

Devon Dampier pass complete to Trace Bruckler for 11 yds to the MTST 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Eli Sanders run for 2 yds to the MTST 12

2nd & 8Passing Touchdown+12 ydsPPA +2.72

Devon Dampier pass complete to Trace Bruckler for 12 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)

1st & 10Rush+34 ydsPPA +2.84

Scottre Humphrey run for 34 yds to the UNM 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Scottre Humphrey run for 5 yds to the UNM 36

2nd & 5Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.53

Scottre Humphrey run for 16 yds to the UNM 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Adam Jones run for 6 yds to the UNM 14

2nd & 4Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.55

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ryan King for 9 yds to the UNM 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Rylan Schlepp for 5 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK)

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

Eli Sanders run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNM 23

2nd & 12Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.12

Devon Dampier pass complete to Javen Jacobs for 6 yds to the UNM 29

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Devon Dampier pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt+7 yds

Aaron Rodriguez punt for 54 yds , Taco Dowler returns for 7 yds to the MTST 24

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.89

Scottre Humphrey run for 8 yds to the MTST 32

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.01

Scottre Humphrey run for 3 yds to the MTST 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Adam Jones for 4 yds to the MTST 39

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.22

Adam Jones run for 7 yds to the MTST 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.65

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Taco Dowler for 7 yds to the UNM 47

2nd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 6 yds to the UNM 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.48

Scottre Humphrey run for 7 yds to the UNM 34

3rd & 3Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.06

Tommy Mellott run for 17 yds to the UNM 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +2.58

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 17 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Devon Dampier pass complete to Trace Bruckler for 3 yds to the UNM 28

2nd & 7Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.23

Eli Sanders run for 8 yds to the UNM 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Devon Dampier pass complete to Caleb Medford for 7 yds to the UNM 43

2nd & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.51

Eli Sanders run for 6 yds to the UNM 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.73

Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 11 yds to the MTST 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Devon Dampier pass complete to Luke Wysong for 2 yds to the MTST 38

2nd & 8Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.83

Devon Dampier pass complete to Trace Bruckler for 8 yds to the MTST 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Naquari Rogers run for 6 yds to the MTST 24

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+24 ydsPPA +2.60

Devon Dampier run for 24 yds for a TD (Luke Drzewiecki KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Lonyatta Alexander Jr. for 5 yds to the MTST 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.84

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Rohan Jones for 6 yds to the MTST 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.36

Tommy Mellott sacked by Moso'oipala Tuitele for a loss of 2 yards to the MTST 34

2nd & 12Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Tommy Mellott run for 3 yds to the MTST 37

3rd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Adam Jones run for 2 yds to the MTST 39

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Brendan Hall punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Javen Jacobs at the UNM 9

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Javen Jacobs run for 4 yds to the UNM 13

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+15 yds

Charles Steinkamp kickoff for 62 yds , Marqui Johnson return for 15 yds to the MTST 18

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Scottre Humphrey run for 2 yds to the MTST 20

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

Montana State Penalty, False Start (Conner Moore) to the MTST 15

2nd & 13Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.12

Scottre Humphrey run for 1 yd to the MTST 16

3rd & 12Fumble Return Touchdown+13 ydsPPA -6.72

Noah Avinger 13 Yd Fumble Return (Luke Drzewiecki Kick)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+20 yds

Charles Steinkamp kickoff for 62 yds , Marqui Johnson return for 20 yds to the MTST 23

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Scottre Humphrey run for 6 yds to the MTST 29

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.65

Adam Jones run for 6 yds to the MTST 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.06

Adam Jones run for 11 yds to the MTST 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Adam Jones run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.57

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 16 yds to the UNM 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Adam Jones run for 4 yds to the UNM 30

3rd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 5 yds to the UNM 25

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -3.35

Scottre Humphrey run for no gain to the UNM 25

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Devon Dampier run for 11 yds to the UNM 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Devon Dampier pass complete to Luke Wysong for 4 yds to the UNM 40

2nd & 6Rush+36 ydsPPA +2.63

Eli Sanders run for 36 yds to the MTST 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Eli Sanders run for 4 yds to the MTST 20

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.46

Naquari Rogers run for no gain to the MTST 20

3rd & 6Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Devon Dampier pass complete to Nic Trujillo for 2 yds to the MTST 18

4th & 4Field Goal Missed+35 yds

Luke Drzewiecki 35 Yard Field Goal Missed

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.53

Adam Jones run for 7 yds to the MTST 27

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Adam Jones run for 1 yd to the MTST 28

3rd & 2Penalty+5 yds

New Mexico Penalty, Offsides (Moso'oipala Tuitele) to the MTST 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Adam Jones run for 3 yds to the MTST 36

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Ty McCullouch run for 6 yds to the MTST 42

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.47

Scottre Humphrey run for 6 yds to the MTST 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.62

Adam Jones run for 7 yds to the UNM 45

2nd & 3Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +0.77

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Hunter Provience for 25 yds to the UNM 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Scottre Humphrey run for 5 yds to the UNM 15

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

Scottre Humphrey run for no gain to the UNM 15

3rd & 5Rushing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +2.95

Tommy Mellott run for 15 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Devon Dampier pass complete to Luke Wysong for 8 yds to the UNM 33

2nd & 2Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.51

Naquari Rogers run for 8 yds to the UNM 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Javen Jacobs run for 1 yd to the UNM 42

2nd & 9Penalty+15 yds

(11:53) DAMPIER, Devon pass deep up the middle incomplete intended for WYSONG, Luke broken up by STILLWELL, Blake at the MSU13, clock 11:47. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on STILLWELL, Blake enforced 15 yards MSU Unsportsmanlike Conduct on STILLWELL, Blake enforced 15 yards from the MSU43 to the MSU28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Naquari Rogers run for 3 yds to the MTST 25

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.30

Naquari Rogers run for 2 yds to the MTST 23

3rd & 5Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.08

Eli Sanders run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTST 25

4th & 7Field Goal Missed+42 yds

Luke Drzewiecki 42 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Adam Jones run for 8 yds to the MTST 33

2nd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.02

Adam Jones run for 3 yds to the MTST 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Tommy Mellott run for 4 yds to the MTST 40

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Scottre Humphrey run for 2 yds to the MTST 42

3rd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.62

Adam Jones run for 1 yd to the MTST 43

4th & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.13

Eli Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTST 43

2nd & 11Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Eli Sanders run for 6 yds to the MTST 37

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Devon Dampier pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Aaron Rodriguez punt for 30 yds, downed at the MTST 7

1st & 10Penalty+2 yds

(05:11) QB Keeper MELLOTT, Tommy rush to the right for a gain of 2 yards to the MSU7 (ELLIS, Christian), clock 05:05. PENALTY MSU Holding on LONERGAN, Ryan UNM Horse Collar Tackle on ELLIS, Christian , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+93 ydsPPA +6.87

Adam Jones run for 93 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Devon Dampier pass complete to Ryan Davis for 6 yds to the UNM 31

2nd & 4Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.79

Naquari Rogers run for 7 yds to the UNM 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.27

Eli Sanders run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNM 37

2nd & 11Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Eli Sanders run for 5 yds to the UNM 42

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Devon Dampier pass incomplete

4th & 6Penalty-5 yds

New Mexico Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the UNM 37

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Aaron Rodriguez punt for 42 yds , Taco Dowler returns for no gain to the MTST 23

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Lonyatta Alexander Jr. for 5 yds to the MTST 16

2nd & 5Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.17

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Rohan Jones for 16 yds to the MTST 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+37 ydsPPA +4.12

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Lonyatta Alexander Jr. for 37 yds to the UNM 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Lonyatta Alexander Jr. for 5 yds to the UNM 26

2nd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Adam Jones for 6 yds to the UNM 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Adam Jones run for 4 yds to the UNM 16

3rd & 6Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.35

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 12 yds to the UNM 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Rushing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Scottre Humphrey run for 4 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

New Mexico Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Devon Dampier) to the UNM 21

2nd & 14Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-1 ydsPPA +0.09

Devon Dampier pass complete to Nic Trujillo for a loss of 1 yard Nic Trujillo fumbled, recovered by MTST Elijah Elliott E. Elliott return for 0 yds

Situational Analysis

Montana State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
2 plays
55%
33 plays
2nd
80%
5 plays
73%
11 plays
40%
10 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
100%
2 plays
80%
5 plays
25%
4 plays
0%
1 play
4th
0%
2 plays
0%
1 play

New Mexico

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
38%
26 plays
2nd
67%
3 plays
80%
5 plays
38%
8 plays
100%
4 plays
3rd
0%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
4th