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← Back to GamesNov 23, 2024Week 13
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

St. Thomas (MN) by 5

Home Win Probability

St. Thomas (MN) 61%

Market (ESPN Bet)

St. Thomas (MN) -2.5

Edge: St. Thomas (MN) -2.5 (2.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 23, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Dayton
30069
St. Thomas (MN)
7180732

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142814-325-332-3
St. Thomas (MN)Dayton

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20DAYST(DAYST(DAYST(DAYST(DAYDAYST(DAYST(DAYST(DAYST(ST(DAYST(DAYST(DAYST(DAYST(ST(DAYST(PUNT510ydUncategorized3-3ydFG512ydPUNT34ydPUNT32ydTD978ydPUNT3-4ydTD650ydTD473ydPUNT518ydPUNT37ydTO413ydPUNT39ydTO48ydFG45ydPUNT3-5ydUncategorized60ydPUNT3-13ydDOWNS929ydTO761ydPUNT55ydTD866ydDOWNS1441ydPUNT3-8ydTD770ydPUNT30ydDOWNS4-2ydTO417ydUncategorized3-2yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Dayton and St. Thomas (MN)
StatisticDaytonSt. Thomas (MN)
Passing23-4412-21
Pass Yards198136
Rush Yards28139
Total Yards226275
Turnovers51
3rd Down4-174-14
Penalties3-387-50
Possession29:1330:47

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Dayton
passing
Drew VanVleet
23/43, 198 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
rushing
Luke Hansen
12 CAR, 38 YDS
receiving
Jake Coleman
10 REC, 107 YDS, 1 TD
St. Thomas (MN)
passing
Tak Tateoka
12/21, 136 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Hope Adebayo
22 CAR, 123 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Colin Chase
7 REC, 101 YDS, 1 TD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Luke Hansen run for 4 yds to the DAY 31

2nd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.30

Gavin Lochow run for 9 yds to the DAY 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.12

Luke Hansen run for no gain to the DAY 40

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.63

Luke Hansen run for 1 yd to the DAY 41

3rd & 9Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -0.68

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Luke Hansen for a loss of 4 yards to the DAY 37

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Logan Forcum punt for 33 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.19

Tak Tateoka pass complete to Jacob Wildermuth for a loss of 3 yards to the STMN 27

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Tak Tateoka pass incomplete to Hope Adebayo, broken up by Logan Miller

3rd & 13Fumble Recovery (Own)-8 ydsPPA -0.21

Tak Tateoka sacked by Aiden McKinley for a loss of 8 yards to the STMN 19 Tak Tateoka fumbled, recovered by DAY Gideon Lampron , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.18

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Jake Coleman for 10 yds to the STMN 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Mason Hackett run for 1 yd to the STMN 8

2nd & 8Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.21

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Gavin Lochow for 1 yd to the STMN 7

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

pass incomplete to Luke Brenner

4th & 7Field Goal Good+24 yds

Danny Baker 24 Yd Field Goal

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.77

Hope Adebayo run for no gain to the STMN 27

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.26

Hope Adebayo run for 2 yds to the STMN 29

3rd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Tak Tateoka run for 2 yds to the STMN 31

4th & 6Punt+7 yds

Elliot Huether punt for 53 yds , Paul Kelly returns for 7 yds to the DAY 23

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

pass incomplete to Donovan Weatherly

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.20

Luke Hansen run for 2 yds to the DAY 25

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

pass incomplete to Luke Brenner

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Logan Forcum punt for 45 yds , Colin Chase returns for no gain to the STMN 22

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.94

Hope Adebayo run for 12 yds to the STMN 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

St. Thomas-Minnesota Penalty, false start (James Morrison) to the STMN 29

1st & 15Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Hope Adebayo run for 4 yds to the STMN 33

2nd & 11Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.64

Tak Tateoka pass complete to Colin Chase for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Hope Adebayo run for 2 yds to the DAY 48

2nd & 8Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.54

Hope Adebayo run for 14 yds to the DAY 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +0.37

Hope Adebayo run for 18 yds to the DAY 16 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Hope Adebayo run for 1 yd to the DAY 15

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Tak Tateoka run for 4 yds to the DAY 11

3rd & 5Rushing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.86

Hope Adebayo run for 11 yds for a TD (Ben Hoiland KICK) (Ben Hoiland KICK)

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.81

Gavin Lochow run for a loss of 2 yards to the DAY 21

2nd & 12Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Luke Hansen run for 3 yds to the DAY 24

3rd & 9Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.24

Drew VanVleet sacked by C.J. Warren for a loss of 5 yards to the DAY 19

4th & 14Punt+2 yds

Logan Forcum punt for 33 yds , Colin Chase returns for 2 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 7Rush-10 ydsPPA -2.67

Tak Tateoka run for no gain to the STMN 47 St. Thomas-Minnesota Penalty, Offensive holding (Mariano Birdno) to the STMN 43

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Tak Tateoka pass complete to Colin Chase for 3 yds to the DAY 47

2nd & 17Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +3.22

Tak Tateoka pass complete to Jacob Wildermuth for 18 yds to the DAY 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.44

Tak Tateoka pass complete to Landon Reed for 7 yds to the DAY 32

2nd & 3Sack-10 ydsPPA -2.91

Tak Tateoka sacked by Gideon Lampron for a loss of 10 yards to the DAY 42

3rd & 13Passing Touchdown+42 ydsPPA +5.61

Tak Tateoka pass complete to Colin Chase for 42 yds for a TD (Ben Hoiland KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Mason Hackett run for 4 yds to the DAY 31

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -0.71

Mason Hackett run for no gain to the DAY 31

3rd & 6Fumble Return Touchdown+34 ydsPPA -7.23

Ryan Calcagno 34 Yd Fumble Return (Grif Wurtz Run for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Luke Hansen run for 3 yds to the DAY 28

2nd & 7Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.42

Luke Hansen run for 10 yds to the DAY 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-13 ydsPPA -2.29

Drew VanVleet sacked by Jordan Pendleton for a loss of 13 yards to the DAY 25

2nd & 23Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.26

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Dominic Vrbancic for 18 yds to the DAY 43

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.73

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete, broken up by David Ayeni

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Logan Forcum punt for 32 yds , Colin Chase returns for no gain to the STMN 22

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.61

Hope Adebayo run for no gain to the STMN 22

2nd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.28

Tak Tateoka pass complete to Owen Lyons for 7 yds to the STMN 29

3rd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

pass incomplete to Jacob Wildermuth

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Elliot Huether punt for 43 yds

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.10

Mason Hackett run for 12 yds to the DAY 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Mason Hackett run for 1 yd to the DAY 41

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.84

pass incomplete to Donovan Weatherly

3rd & 9Interception0 ydsPPA -0.49

Drew VanVleet pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.92

Tak Tateoka run for 1 yd to the STMN 47

2nd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Tak Tateoka pass complete to Colin Chase for 7 yds to the DAY 46

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Hope Adebayo run for 1 yd to the DAY 45

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Elliot Huether punt for 24 yds

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Luke Hansen run for 6 yds to the DAY 27

2nd & 4Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.08

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Jake Coleman for 11 yds to the DAY 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -2.12

Drew VanVleet sacked by Jordan Pendleton for a loss of 9 yards to the DAY 29

2nd & 19Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete to Luke Hansen, broken up by Luke Herzog

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

pass incomplete to Jacob Wildermuth

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.45

Hope Adebayo run for no gain to the DAY 19

3rd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Colin Chase run for 5 yds to the DAY 14

4th & 5Field Goal Good+31 yds

Ben Hoiland 31 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+24 yds

Elliot Huether kickoff for 63 yds , Paul Kelly return for 24 yds to the DAY 26

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.12

Drew VanVleet sacked by Noah Friedt for a loss of 5 yards to the DAY 21

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

pass incomplete

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.07

pass incomplete to Jake Coleman

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Logan Forcum punt for 40 yds , Colin Chase returns for no gain to the STMN 37

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

pass incomplete to Eli Paulson

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.85

Tak Tateoka pass complete to Colin Chase for 12 yds to the DAY 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Tak Tateoka pass incomplete to Eli Paulson, broken up by Sam Schmiesing

2nd & 10Pass Reception-5 ydsPPA -2.04

Tak Tateoka pass complete to Eli Paulson for no gain to the DAY 41 St. Thomas-Minnesota Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the DAY 46

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.94

pass incomplete to Andrew Eichmann

0th & 10End of Half-2 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.79

Hope Adebayo run for a loss of 3 yards to the STMN 43

2nd & 13Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.27

Tak Tateoka sacked by Aiden McKinley for a loss of 9 yards to the STMN 34

3rd & 22Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.10

Tak Tateoka run for a loss of 1 yard to the STMN 33

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+40 yds

David Maurer kickoff for 59 yds , Colin Chase return for 40 yds to the STMN 46

4th & 23Punt+40 yds

Elliot Huether punt for 47 yds , Paul Kelly returns for 40 yds to the STMN 40

1st & 10Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.37

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Jake Coleman for 10 yds to the STMN 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.77

Drew VanVleet sacked by Charlie Boucher for a loss of 7 yards to the STMN 37

2nd & 17Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.72

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Gavin Lochow for a loss of 4 yards to the STMN 41

3rd & 21Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.90

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Jake Coleman for 20 yds to the STMN 21

4th & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.82

Mason Hackett run for 3 yds to the STMN 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

pass incomplete to Cade Beam

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.67

Gavin Lochow run for a loss of 2 yards to the STMN 20

3rd & 12Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.48

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Luke Brenner for 9 yds to the STMN 11

4th & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.87

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete to Dominic Vrbancic, broken up by Luke Herzog

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Hope Adebayo run for 1 yd to the STMN 12

2nd & 9Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.99

Hope Adebayo run for 13 yds to the STMN 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion+15 ydsPPA +1.32

Tak Tateoka pass incomplete to Eli Paulson for a 1ST down Dayton Penalty, roughing passer (Jerell Lewis) to the STMN 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.21

Hope Adebayo run for a loss of 1 yard to the DAY 39 for a 1ST down Dayton Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jack Wardzala) to the DAY 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.61

Tak Tateoka pass complete to Colin Chase for 12 yds to the DAY 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Tak Tateoka pass complete to Eli Paulson for 6 yds to the DAY 28

2nd & 4Interception0 ydsPPA -4.29

Tak Tateoka pass intercepted

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.96

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Luke Hansen for 13 yds to the DAY 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-8 ydsPPA -1.70

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Gavin Lochow for no gain to the DAY 33 Dayton Penalty, illegal block (Emmanuel Hardrick) to the DAY 25

1st & 18Pass Reception-5 ydsPPA -0.49

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Gavin Lochow for a loss of 5 yards to the DAY 20

2nd & 23Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.07

pass incomplete to Jake Coleman

3rd & 23Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.03

pass incomplete to Luke Hansen

4th & 23Penalty+5 yds

St. Thomas-Minnesota Penalty, off-side (Jordan Pendleton) to the DAY 25

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Logan Forcum punt for 41 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Hope Adebayo run for 4 yds to the DAY 6

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.06

Hope Adebayo run for 11 yds to the STMN 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.94

Tak Tateoka pass complete to Colin Chase for 8 yds to the DAY 47

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.99

Hope Adebayo run for 1 yd to the DAY 46

3rd & 1Rush+26 ydsPPA +1.71

Hope Adebayo run for 26 yds to the DAY 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.10

Landon Reed run for 10 yds to the DAY 10 for a 1ST down

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Hope Adebayo run for 5 yds to the DAY 1

3rd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Hope Adebayo 1 Yd Run (Elliot Huether Kick)

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Jake Coleman for 9 yds to the DAY 34

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.28

pass incomplete to Jake Coleman

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.95

Mason Hackett run for 2 yds to the DAY 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

pass incomplete to Gavin Lochow

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Gavin Lochow for 5 yds to the DAY 41

3rd & 5Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.44

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Gavin Lochow for 11 yds to the STMN 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.56

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Jake Coleman for 7 yds to the STMN 41

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.59

Luke Hansen run for 2 yds to the STMN 39

3rd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

Luke Hansen run for a loss of 1 yard to the STMN 40

4th & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +2.04

Luke Hansen run for 3 yds to the STMN 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.57

Gavin Lochow run for 1 yd to the STMN 36

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.93

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete to Dominic Vrbancic, broken up by Grif Wurtz

3rd & 9Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Gavin Lochow for 2 yds to the STMN 34

4th & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.84

pass incomplete to Gavin Lochow

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

pass incomplete to Jacob Wildermuth

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.37

Tak Tateoka run for 2 yds to the STMN 36

3rd & 8Penalty-5 yds

St. Thomas-Minnesota Penalty, false start (Mariano Birdno) to the STMN 31

3rd & 13Rush-5 ydsPPA -0.25

Joseph Koch run for a loss of 5 yards to the STMN 26

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Elliot Huether punt for 44 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.67

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Jake Coleman for 7 yds to the DAY 37

2nd & 3Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.01

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Jake Coleman for 11 yds to the DAY 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.15

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Jake Coleman for 9 yds to the STMN 43

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.20

pass incomplete to Luke Brenner

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.96

Luke Hansen run for 5 yds to the STMN 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +0.56

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Donovan Weatherly for 25 yds to the STMN 13 for a 1ST down St. Thomas-Minnesota Penalty, substitution infraction (Yards) to the STMN 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.54

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Jake Coleman for 13 yds for a TD (Danny Baker PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

St. Thomas-Minnesota Penalty, delay of game (Tak Tateoka) to the STMN 48

1st & 15Rush-14 ydsPPA -2.48

Joseph Koch run for 1 yd to the STMN 49 St. Thomas-Minnesota Penalty, personal foul (Alec Rasmussen) to the STMN 34

2nd & 29Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.09

Joseph Koch run for 7 yds to the STMN 41

3rd & 22Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.61

Joseph Koch run for 12 yds to the DAY 47

4th & 10Punt+12 yds

Elliot Huether punt for 38 yds , Paul Kelly returns for 12 yds to the DAY 21 Paul Kelly fumbled, recovered by STMN Delainey Suraju , return for no gain to the DAY 21

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Joseph Koch run for 3 yds to the DAY 18

2nd & 7Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.64

Marc Coy run for a loss of 2 yards to the DAY 20

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

pass incomplete to Julian Alfaro Diedrich

4th & 9Rush-3 ydsPPA -2.91

Langston Robinson run for a loss of 3 yards to the DAY 23

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete to Chase Holmes, broken up by Grif Wurtz

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.41

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Chase Holmes for 17 yds to the DAY 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Interception0 ydsPPA -2.24

Drew VanVleet pass intercepted

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.31

Michael Rostberg run for a loss of 1 yard to the DAY 49

2nd & 11Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.18

Michael Rostberg run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line

3rd & 12Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.71

Michael Rostberg run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard line

Situational Analysis

Dayton

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
38%
29 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
25%
4 plays
67%
3 plays
22%
9 plays
17%
6 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
14%
7 plays
50%
4 plays
4th
67%
3 plays
0%
1 play

St. Thomas (MN)

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
41%
27 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
36%
11 plays
43%
7 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
100%
1 play
33%
3 plays
33%
6 plays
4th
0%
1 play