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← Back to GamesNov 16, 2024Week 12
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Dayton by 15.9

Home Win Probability

Dayton 82%

Market (ESPN Bet)

Dayton -13

Edge: Dayton -13 (2.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 16, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Valparaiso
700714
Dayton
0143926

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-77-714-717-717-1426-14
DaytonValparaiso

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20DAYVALDAYVALDAYVALDAYVALDAYVALDAYVALVALDAYVALDAYVALDAYVALDAYDAYPUNT36ydTD338ydPUNT619ydPUNT925ydPUNT613ydPUNT3-6ydPUNT33ydPUNT34ydTD571ydDOWNS618ydTD1052ydEND14ydPUNT36ydFG1662ydTD975ydPUNT716ydPUNT3-2ydPUNT35ydSAF2-1ydTD1055ydEND3-1yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Valparaiso and Dayton
StatisticValparaisoDayton
Passing10-1215-22
Pass Yards56113
Rush Yards114184
Total Yards170297
Turnovers10
3rd Down3-913-21
Penalties7-745-38
Possession23:2236:38

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Valparaiso
passing
Caron Tyler
10/12, 56 YDS
rushing
Caron Tyler
8 CAR, 58 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Gary Givens III
5 REC, 52 YDS
Dayton
passing
Drew VanVleet
14/21, 101 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Luke Hansen
31 CAR, 98 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Gavin Lochow
7 REC, 37 YDS, 1 TD

Play-by-Play

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+19 yds

Ryan Hawk kickoff for 65 yds , Paul Kelly return for 19 yds to the DAY 19

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Luke Hansen run for 2 yds to the DAY 21

2nd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Gavin Lochow for 4 yds to the DAY 25

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete

4th & 4Blocked Punt0 yds

null punt blocked by blocked by Punt by FORCUM, Logan at the DAY25 is blocked by GOWOROWSKI, Alex, recovered by VAL FRANCO, Max at the DAY38, returned 0 yards to the DAY38, End of Play, clock 13:33. , returns for no gain to the DAY 38

1st & 10Rush+33 ydsPPA +1.21

Caron Tyler run for 33 yds to the DAY 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.64

Michael Mansaray run for a loss of 1 yard to the DAY 6

2nd & 6Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.53

Michael Mansaray run for 6 yds for a TD (Ryan Hawk KICK)

3rd & 4Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.26

Luke Hansen run for 9 yds to the DAY 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.37

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Luke Brenner for 6 yds to the DAY 36

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Mason Hackett run for 1 yd to the DAY 37

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Gavin Lochow run for 5 yds to the DAY 20

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.41

Luke Hansen run for 1 yd to the DAY 21

3rd & 3Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.89

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Gavin Lochow for a loss of 3 yards to the DAY 34

4th & 6Punt+4 yds

Logan Forcum punt for 47 yds , Colin Graves returns for 4 yds to the VAL 11

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.32

Michael Mansaray run for 1 yd to the VAL 13

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.22

Michael Mansaray run for 7 yds to the VAL 20

3rd & 2Penalty-5 yds

Valparaiso Penalty, False Start (Caron Tyler) to the VAL 15

3rd & 7Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.91

Caron Tyler run for 7 yds to the VAL 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Brian Thomas run for 3 yds to the VAL 25

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Michael Mansaray run for 5 yds to the VAL 30

3rd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.31

Michael Mansaray run for 6 yds to the VAL 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Michael Mansaray run for 1 yd to the VAL 37

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Brian Thomas run for 3 yds to the VAL 40

3rd & 6Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Caron Tyler pass complete to Chris Gundy for 2 yds to the VAL 42

4th & 4Penalty-5 yds

Valparaiso Penalty, Delay Of Game (Caron Tyler) to the VAL 37

4th & 9Punt0 yds

punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Paul Kelly at the DAY 19

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Mason Hackett run for 5 yds to the DAY 24

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Mason Hackett run for 4 yds to the DAY 28

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.83

Luke Hansen run for 3 yds to the DAY 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.03

Luke Hansen run for a loss of 1 yard to the DAY 30

2nd & 11Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.35

Luke Hansen run for 7 yds to the DAY 37

3rd & 4Penalty-5 yds

Dayton Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the DAY 32

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Logan Forcum punt for 54 yds, downed at the VAL 14

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Michael Mansaray run for 4 yds to the VAL 18

2nd & 6Pass Reception-8 ydsPPA -0.62

Caron Tyler pass complete to Chris Gundy for a loss of 8 yards to the VAL 10

3rd & 14Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.05

Caron Tyler pass complete to Gary Givens III for a loss of 2 yards to the VAL 8

4th & 16Punt0 yds

Sam Johnson punt for 53 yds, downed at the DAY 39

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Mason Hackett run for 2 yds to the DAY 41

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.74

Mason Hackett run for 1 yd to the DAY 42

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Logan Forcum punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Colin Graves at the VAL 23

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.54

Michael Mansaray run for 1 yd to the VAL 24

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Caron Tyler run for 2 yds to the VAL 26

3rd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.20

Caron Tyler run for 1 yd to the VAL 27

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Sam Johnson punt for 44 yds , Paul Kelly returns for no gain to the DAY 29

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Luke Hansen run for 5 yds to the DAY 34

2nd & 5Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.13

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Gavin Lochow for 20 yds to the VAL 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Luke Hansen run for 1 yd to the VAL 45

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Luke Hansen run for 3 yds to the VAL 42

3rd & 6Rushing Touchdown+42 ydsPPA +4.73

Gavin Lochow run for 42 yds for a TD (Danny Baker KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+24 yds

David Maurer kickoff for 55 yds , Jeffery Vercher return for 24 yds to the VAL 34

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.99

Michael Mansaray run for no gain to the VAL 34

2nd & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.05

Brian Thomas run for 11 yds to the VAL 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

Michael Mansaray run for a loss of 1 yard to the VAL 44

2nd & 11Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.33

Michael Mansaray run for 10 yds to the DAY 46

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -1.20

Michael Mansaray run for no gain to the DAY 46

4th & 1Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.48

Michael Mansaray run for a loss of 2 yards to the DAY 48

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Luke Hansen run for 3 yds to the VAL 49

3rd & 7Rush+14 ydsPPA +2.57

Luke Hansen run for 14 yds to the VAL 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.37

Luke Hansen run for 2 yds to the VAL 33

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.44

Luke Hansen run for 2 yds to the VAL 31

3rd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.10

Gavin Lochow run for 7 yds to the VAL 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.14

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Jake Coleman for 11 yds to the VAL 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Luke Hansen run for 2 yds to the VAL 11

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Luke Hansen run for 4 yds to the VAL 7

3rd & 4Passing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.73

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Gavin Lochow for 7 yds for a TD (Danny Baker KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+4 yds

David Maurer kickoff for 30 yds , Ryan Mann return for 4 yds to the VAL 39

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Michael Mansaray run for 4 yds to the VAL 43

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+23 yds

David Maurer kickoff for 63 yds , Brian Thomas return for 23 yds to the VAL 25

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Ryan Mann run for 1 yd to the VAL 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.37

Caron Tyler pass complete to Gary Givens III for 7 yds to the VAL 33

3rd & 2Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.75

Caron Tyler pass complete to Chris Gundy for a loss of 2 yards to the VAL 31

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Sam Johnson punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Paul Kelly at the DAY 19

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Luke Hansen run for 2 yds to the DAY 21

2nd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.05

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Luke Brenner for 5 yds to the DAY 26

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.04

Luke Hansen run for 4 yds to the DAY 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

VANVLEET, Drew pass deep to the right incomplete intended for LOCHOW, Gavin thrown to the VAL45. PENALTY VAL Pass Interference enforced 15 yards to the DAY45 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Mason Hackett run for 1 yd to the DAY 46

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Mason Hackett run for 2 yds to the DAY 48

3rd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +2.40

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Gavin Lochow for 8 yds to the VAL 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Luke Hansen run for 4 yds to the VAL 40

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Luke Hansen run for 3 yds to the VAL 37

3rd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.99

Luke Hansen run for 5 yds to the VAL 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.61

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Luke Hansen run for 5 yds to the VAL 27

3rd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.78

Luke Hansen run for 5 yds to the VAL 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Mason Hackett run for 7 yds to the VAL 15

2nd & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.58

Mason Hackett run for a loss of 1 yard to the VAL 16

3rd & 4Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.92

Luke Hansen run for a loss of 3 yards to the VAL 19

4th & 7Field Goal Good+36 yds

Danny Baker 36 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+24 yds

David Maurer kickoff for 64 yds , Jeffery Vercher return for 24 yds to the VAL 25

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Caron Tyler pass complete to Ryan Mann for 1 yd to the VAL 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.42

Caron Tyler pass complete to Gary Givens III for 9 yds to the VAL 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +2.05

Caron Tyler pass complete to Gary Givens III for 25 yds to the DAY 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.05

Caron Tyler run for a loss of 1 yard to the DAY 41

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Caron Tyler pass incomplete

3rd & 11Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.52

Caron Tyler pass complete to Gary Givens III for 13 yds to the DAY 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.18

Caron Tyler run for 11 yds to the DAY 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.53

Caron Tyler pass complete to Chris Gundy for 11 yds to the DAY 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.05

Caron Tyler run for 6 yds for a TD (Ryan Hawk KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+13 yds

Ryan Hawk kickoff for 62 yds , Paul Kelly return for 13 yds to the DAY 16

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Luke Hansen run for 1 yd to the DAY 17

2nd & 17Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.03

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Gavin Lochow for 3 yds to the DAY 12

3rd & 14Penalty-5 yds

Dayton Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the DAY 7

3rd & 19Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.45

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Luke Brenner for 20 yds to the DAY 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Gavin Lochow run for 2 yds to the DAY 29

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Luke Hansen run for 2 yds to the DAY 31

3rd & 6Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.30

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Luke Hansen for 1 yd to the DAY 32

2nd & 9Pass Reception-13 ydsPPA -0.42

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Luke Hansen for no gain to the DAY 17 Dayton Penalty, Illegal Block (TEAM) to the DAY 4

4th & 5Punt+3 yds

Logan Forcum punt for 46 yds , Colin Graves returns for 3 yds to the VAL 25

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Michael Mansaray run for a loss of 1 yard to the VAL 24

2nd & 11Sack-1 ydsPPA -0.33

Caron Tyler sacked by Nate Hess for a loss of 1 yard to the VAL 23

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.11

Caron Tyler pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Sam Johnson punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Paul Kelly at the DAY 34

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Jake Coleman for 5 yds to the DAY 39

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Mason Hackett run for no gain to the DAY 39

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Drew VanVleet pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Logan Forcum punt for 59 yds

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.28

Ryan Mann run for a loss of 1 yard to the VAL 1

2nd & 11Safety0 ydsPPA -1.74

Team Safety

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

Luke Hansen run for 2 yds to the DAY 47

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Luke Hansen run for 1 yd to the DAY 48

3rd & 7Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.80

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Dominic Vrbancic for 16 yds to the VAL 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

VANVLEET, Drew pass up the middle complete for 0 yards to LOCHOW, Gavin caught at the VAL41 and advanced to the VAL36 (JOHNSON, Mark;SPELMAN, Kevin). PENALTY DAY Illegal Block in the Back enforced 15 yards from the VAL36 to the DAY49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 25Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.62

Gavin Lochow run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

2nd & 24Penalty+15 yds

VANVLEET, Drew pass deep to the left incomplete intended for LOCHOW, Gavin thrown to the VAL20. PENALTY VAL Pass Interference enforced 15 yards to the VAL35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Mason Hackett run for 3 yds to the VAL 32

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Mason Hackett run for 1 yd to the VAL 31

3rd & 6Penalty+12 yds

VANVLEET, Drew pass to the left incomplete intended for COLEMAN, Jake thrown to the VAL18. PENALTY VAL Pass Interference enforced at the spot of the foul for 12 yards to the VAL19 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Luke Hansen run for 3 yds to the VAL 16

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Gavin Lochow run for 3 yds to the VAL 13

3rd & 4Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.90

Gavin Lochow pass complete to Alec Keathley for 12 yds to the VAL 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Luke Hansen run for 1 yd for a TD (Danny Baker KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+64 yds

David Maurer kickoff for 64 yds , Jeffery Vercher return for 21 yds to the VAL 11 Jeffery Vercher fumbled, recovered by DAY Vincent Firenze V. Firenze return for 21 yds , return for no gain to the VAL 11

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Luke Hansen run for 4 yds to the VAL 7

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Luke Hansen run for 2 yds to the VAL 5

3rd & 4Penalty-5 yds

Dayton Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the VAL 10

3rd & 9Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -0.67

Drew VanVleet pass complete to Gavin Lochow for a loss of 2 yards to the VAL 12

Situational Analysis

Valparaiso

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
24%
17 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
71%
7 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
0%
1 play
50%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play

Dayton

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
29%
24 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
1 play
14%
7 plays
14%
14 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
60%
10 plays
50%
6 plays
100%
1 play
4th