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← Back to GamesOct 5, 2024Week 6
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Drake by 9

Home Win Probability

Valparaiso 29%

Market (ESPN Bet)

Valparaiso +11.5

Edge: Valparaiso +11.5 (2.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 5, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Drake
14301027
Valparaiso
00303

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-140-173-173-203-27
ValparaisoDrake

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20VALDRAVALDRAVALDRAVALDRAVALDRAVALDRAVALDRAVALDRAVALDRAVALDRAVALDRAPUNT3-11ydTD34ydPUNT32ydTD669ydPUNT6-2ydFG840ydPUNT3-3ydMISS745ydPUNT3-5ydMISS943ydTO412ydTO215ydEND25ydPUNT57ydPUNT1020ydPUNT30ydFG933ydFG1047ydPUNT34ydTD877ydDOWNS921ydUncategorized34yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Drake and Valparaiso
StatisticDrakeValparaiso
Passing19-2911-22
Pass Yards22884
Rush Yards128-4
Total Yards35680
Turnovers12
3rd Down5-134-14
Penalties5-416-35
Possession29:4628:18

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Drake
passing
Luke Bailey
17/26, 224 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Davion Cherwin
10 CAR, 72 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Sam Rodriguez
3 REC, 65 YDS
Valparaiso
passing
Caron Tyler
11/21, 84 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Ryan Mann
12 CAR, 25 YDS
receiving
Gary Givens III
2 REC, 23 YDS

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Caron Tyler run for 5 yds to the VAL 30

2nd & 5Rush-7 ydsPPA -1.23

Ryan Mann run for a loss of 7 yards to the VAL 23

3rd & 12Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.18

Caron Tyler sacked by Sean Allison and Finn Claypool for a loss of 9 yards to the VAL 14

4th & 21Punt+3 yds

Sam Johnson punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the DRKE 38 , Trey Radocha returns for 3 yds to the DRKE 38

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Luke Woodson run for 2 yds to the DRKE 40

2nd & 8Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Luke Bailey pass complete to Sam Rodriguez for 2 yds to the DRKE 42

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Luke Bailey pass incomplete to Mitchell January

4th & 6Fumble Return Touchdown0 ydsPPA -7.19

Joe Frommelt 0 Yd Fumble Return (Shane Dunning Kick)

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.52

Caron Tyler run for a loss of 1 yard to the VAL 15

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.17

Caron Tyler pass incomplete to Michael Mansaray

3rd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.03

Caron Tyler run for 3 yds to the VAL 18

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Sam Johnson punt for 51 yds, downed at the DRKE 31

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.01

Luke Bailey pass complete to Mitchell January for 8 yds to the DRKE 39

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.05

Luke Woodson run for 1 yd to the DRKE 40

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.28

Luke Woodson run for 4 yds to the DRKE 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.96

Davion Cherwin run for 8 yds to the VAL 48

2nd & 2Pass Reception+43 ydsPPA +1.53

Luke Bailey pass complete to Sam Rodriguez for 43 yds to the VAL 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Blake Ellingson pass complete to Mitchell January for 5 yds for a TD (Shane Dunning KICK)

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.56

Michael Mansaray run for a loss of 3 yards to the VAL 11

2nd & 13Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.11

Caron Tyler pass complete to Michael Mansaray for 7 yds to the VAL 18

3rd & 6Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.96

Caron Tyler pass complete to Gary Givens III for 6 yds to the VAL 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-12 ydsPPA -1.19

Caron Tyler sacked by Ethan Zager for a loss of 12 yards to the VAL 12

2nd & 22Rush0 ydsPPA -0.04

Michael Mansaray run for no gain to the VAL 12

3rd & 22Rush0 ydsPPA -0.02

Caron Tyler run for no gain to the VAL 12

4th & 22Punt0 yds

Sam Johnson punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Trey Radocha at the DRKE 39

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Davion Cherwin run for 8 yds to the DRKE 47

2nd & 2Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.09

Luke Bailey pass complete to Taj Hughes for 2 yds to the DRKE 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +0.87

Davion Cherwin run for 14 yds to the VAL 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Drake Penalty, false start (Mitchell January) to the VAL 42

1st & 15Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.23

Luke Bailey pass complete to Parker Olthoff for 21 yds to the VAL 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.39

Luke Bailey pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.50

Luke Bailey pass complete to Taj Hughes for no gain to the VAL 21

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.76

Luke Bailey pass incomplete to Sam Rodriguez, broken up by Colin Graves

4th & 10Field Goal Good+38 yds

Shane Dunning 38 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Caron Tyler pass complete to Semaj Bolin for 7 yds to the VAL 32

2nd & 3Penalty-5 yds

Valparaiso Penalty, false start (Tyler Eberhart) to the VAL 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.40

Caron Tyler pass complete to Michael Mansaray for 1 yd to the VAL 28

3rd & 7Penalty-5 yds

Valparaiso Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the VAL 23

3rd & 12Penalty-5 yds

Valparaiso Penalty, false start (Noah Kline) to the VAL 18

3rd & 17Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Caron Tyler run for 4 yds to the VAL 22

4th & 13Punt+16 yds

Sam Johnson punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the DRKE 37 , Trey Radocha returns for 16 yds to the DRKE 37

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.66

Taj Hughes run for 2 yds to the DRKE 39

2nd & 8Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.96

Blake Ellingson pass complete to Luke Woodson for a loss of 1 yard to the DRKE 38

3rd & 9Pass Reception+40 ydsPPA +4.02

Luke Bailey pass complete to Parker Olthoff for 40 yds to the VAL 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Luke Woodson run for 2 yds to the VAL 20

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.24

Luke Woodson run for 2 yds to the VAL 18

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.57

Luke Bailey pass incomplete to Sam Rodriguez, broken up by Jimmy Pouba

4th & 6Field Goal Missed+35 yds

Shane Dunning 35 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.75

Caron Tyler run for a loss of 3 yards to the VAL 17

2nd & 13Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.19

Michael Mansaray run for a loss of 2 yards to the VAL 15

3rd & 15Rush0 ydsPPA -0.05

Caron Tyler run for no gain to the VAL 15

4th & 15Punt+7 yds

Sam Johnson punt for 53 yds , Trey Radocha returns for 7 yds to the DRKE 39

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Luke Bailey run for 6 yds to the DRKE 45

2nd & 4Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.98

Davion Cherwin run for 10 yds to the VAL 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Drake Penalty, false start (Nathan VanDeWoestyne) to the 50 yard line

1st & 15Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.52

Davion Cherwin run for 7 yds to the VAL 43

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -1.07

Davion Cherwin run for no gain to the VAL 43

3rd & 8Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +2.49

Luke Bailey pass complete to Trey Radocha for 24 yds to the VAL 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.28

Taj Hughes run for 1 yd to the VAL 18

2nd & 9Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.42

Luke Bailey pass complete to Taj Hughes for no gain to the VAL 18

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Luke Bailey pass incomplete to Mitchell January

4th & 9Blocked Field Goal+35 yds

Shane Dunning 35 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Onye Nwosisi

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Michael Mansaray run for 2 yds to the VAL 33

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.65

Caron Tyler pass incomplete to Chris Gundy

3rd & 8Penalty+10 yds

TYLER pass incomplete to GUNDY (Williams, Tommy), PENALTY DRAKE holding (Williams, Tommy) 10 yards to the VALPO43, 1ST DOWN VALPO, NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Caron Tyler pass incomplete to Gary Givens III

2nd & 10Pass Interception Return+15 ydsPPA -1.38

Caron Tyler pass intercepted Tyler Radocha return for no gain to the VAL 43 Drake Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Tyler Radocha) to the VAL 22

1st & 10Penalty+5 yds

Valparaiso Penalty, Defensive offside (Onye Nwosisi) to the VAL 17

1st & 5Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA -0.20

Luke Bailey pass complete to Trey Radocha for 10 yds to the VAL 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Pass Interception Return+10 ydsPPA -4.80

Luke Bailey pass intercepted Nic Lendino return for no gain to the VAL 7 Valparaiso Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Nic Lendino) to the VAL 10

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.46

Ryan Mann run for 11 yds to the VAL 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-6 ydsPPA -0.91

Ryan Mann run for a loss of 6 yards to the VAL 15

0th & 10End of Half-6 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Luke Bailey pass complete to Trey Radocha for 4 yds to the DRKE 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.63

Luke Bailey pass complete to Mitchell January for 13 yds to the DRKE 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.36

Blake Ellingson run for a loss of 1 yard to the DRKE 41

2nd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.74

Luke Bailey pass incomplete to Sam Rodriguez, broken up by Colin Graves

3rd & 11Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.68

Luke Bailey sacked by Hayden Bedell and Onye Nwosisi for a loss of 9 yards to the DRKE 32

4th & 20Punt+1 yds

Shane Dunning punt for 41 yds , Colin Graves returns for 1 yd to the VAL 28

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Caron Tyler pass incomplete to Gary Givens III

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Ryan Mann run for 7 yds to the VAL 35

3rd & 3Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.39

Caron Tyler pass complete to Barret Labus for 2 yds to the VAL 37

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.73

Ryan Mann run for 1 yd to the VAL 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Caron Tyler pass incomplete to Chris Gundy

2nd & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -1.07

Ryan Mann run for a loss of 5 yards to the VAL 33

3rd & 15Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +3.27

Caron Tyler pass complete to Gary Givens III for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Caron Tyler pass incomplete to Brandon Jimenez, broken up by Tommy Williams

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Ryan Mann run for 3 yds to the DRKE 47

3rd & 7Sack-5 ydsPPA -1.53

Caron Tyler sacked by Jacob Auen for a loss of 5 yards to the VAL 48

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Sam Johnson punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the DRKE 7

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.26

Davion Cherwin run for 1 yd to the DRKE 8

2nd & 9Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.18

Davion Cherwin run for a loss of 1 yard to the DRKE 7

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.06

Luke Bailey pass incomplete to Parker Olthoff

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Shane Dunning punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the DRKE 38

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.60

Ryan Mann run for 1 yd to the DRKE 37

2nd & 9Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.99

Caron Tyler pass complete to Ryan Mann for 12 yds to the DRKE 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Caron Tyler run for 6 yds to the DRKE 19

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.38

Caron Tyler run for 1 yd to the DRKE 18

3rd & 3Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.83

Ryan Mann run for 6 yds to the DRKE 12 for a 1ST down Valparaiso Penalty, personal foul (-6 Yards) to the DRKE 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Caron Tyler pass incomplete to Jake Vickers, broken up by Tyler Radocha

2nd & 6Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.55

Caron Tyler sacked by Finn Claypool for a loss of 4 yards to the DRKE 10

3rd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Caron Tyler pass complete to Chris Gundy for 5 yds to the DRKE 5 Valparaiso Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass (Yards) declined

4th & 5Field Goal Good+22 yds

Ryan Hawk 22 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Luke Woodson run for 2 yds to the DRKE 27

2nd & 8Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.58

Luke Woodson run for 11 yds to the DRKE 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.03

Luke Bailey pass complete to Trey Radocha for 11 yds to the DRKE 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Blake Ellingson run for 5 yds to the VAL 46

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Luke Bailey run for 4 yds to the VAL 42

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.91

Luke Woodson run for 5 yds to the VAL 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.59

Luke Bailey pass complete to Davion Cherwin for 8 yds to the VAL 29

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Blake Ellingson pass incomplete

3rd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.66

Luke Woodson run for 1 yd to the VAL 28

4th & 1Field Goal Good+45 yds

Shane Dunning 45 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Ryan Mann run for 4 yds to the VAL 31

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.71

Caron Tyler pass incomplete to Brian Thomas

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Ryan Mann pass incomplete, broken up by Trystan Anderson

4th & 6Punt+2 yds

Sam Johnson punt for 48 yds , Trey Radocha returns for 2 yds to the DRKE 23

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Davion Cherwin run for 4 yds to the DRKE 27

2nd & 6Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +2.22

Luke Bailey pass complete to Sam Rodriguez for 20 yds to the DRKE 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Luke Bailey pass incomplete to Eli Stewart

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Taj Hughes run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line

3rd & 7Rush+11 ydsPPA +2.49

Luke Bailey run for 11 yds to the VAL 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.26

Luke Bailey pass complete to Taj Hughes for 6 yds to the VAL 33

2nd & 4Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.25

Luke Bailey pass complete to Mitchell January for 12 yds to the VAL 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+21 ydsPPA +2.63

Davion Cherwin run for 21 yds for a TD (Shane Dunning KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.98

Caron Tyler pass complete to Ryan Mann for 8 yds to the VAL 37

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.02

Ryan Mann run for 1 yd to the VAL 38

3rd & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.72

Ryan Mann run for 9 yds to the VAL 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.80

Caron Tyler sacked by Gene Blalock for a loss of 3 yards to the VAL 44

2nd & 13Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +2.76

Caron Tyler pass complete to Chris Gundy for 17 yds to the DRKE 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Caron Tyler pass incomplete to Gary Givens III, broken up by Kemani Wilson

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

Valparaiso Penalty, false start (Jake Russell) to the DRKE 44

2nd & 15Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.59

Caron Tyler pass complete to Ryan Mann for 2 yds to the DRKE 42

3rd & 13Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.96

Caron Tyler run for a loss of 1 yard to the DRKE 43

4th & 14Sack-7 ydsPPA -0.43

Caron Tyler sacked by Finn Claypool for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Luke Woodson run for 1 yd to the VAL 49

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Taj Hughes run for 4 yds to the VAL 45

Situational Analysis

Drake

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
2 plays
43%
23 plays
100%
2 plays
2nd
25%
4 plays
80%
5 plays
10%
10 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
67%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
50%
6 plays
0%
1 play
4th

Valparaiso

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
26%
19 plays
2nd
0%
1 play
0%
4 plays
29%
7 plays
33%
6 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
50%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
14%
7 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
1 play
0%
1 play