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← Back to GamesSep 21, 2024Week 4
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Cincinnati by 9.6

Home Win Probability

Cincinnati 69%

Market (Bovada)

Cincinnati -3.5

Edge: Cincinnati -3.5 (6.1 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 21, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
HoustonHouston
00000
CincinnatiCincinnati
14107334

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-014-021-024-031-034-0
CincinnatiHouston

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20CINHOUCINHOUCINHOUCINHOUCINHOUCINHOUCINHOUCINHOUCINHOUCINPUNT37ydTO30ydTD345ydPUNT913ydTD480ydMISS1077ydTD1280ydPUNT3-2ydFG625ydPUNT621ydEND10ydTO564ydTD889ydDOWNS1030ydPUNT3-3ydDOWNS645ydFG1552ydPUNT30ydEND411yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Houston and Cincinnati
StatisticHoustonCincinnati
Passing13-2115-19
Pass Yards92213
Rush Yards141149
Total Yards233362
Turnovers30
3rd Down4-144-10
Penalties7-685-35
Possession26:2633:34

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Houston
passing
Donovan Smith
11/16, 73 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Re'Shaun Sanford II
6 CAR, 62 YDS
receiving
Joseph Manjack
2 REC, 51 YDS
defense
Cincinnati
passing
Brendan Sorsby
12/15, 188 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Corey Kiner
16 CAR, 78 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Sterling Berkhalter
3 REC, 60 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+25 yds

Jack Martin kickoff for 64 yds , Logan Wilson return for 25 yds to the CIN 26

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.00

Corey Kiner run for a loss of 3 yards to the CIN 23

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete

3rd & 13Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.28

Corey Kiner run for 10 yds to the CIN 33

4th & 3Punt+10 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 49 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for 10 yds to the HOU 28

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.10

Stacy Sneed run for a loss of 3 yards to the HOU 25

2nd & 13Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Stacy Sneed run for 3 yds to the HOU 28

3rd & 10Pass Interception Return+1 ydsPPA +0.07

Donovan Smith pass intercepted Josh Minkins return for 1 yd to the HOU 45

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +0.78

Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Jamoi Mayes for 20 yds to the HOU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Cincinnati Penalty, False Start (Phillip Wilder) to the HOU 17

1st & 15Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.48

Corey Kiner run for a loss of 2 yards to the HOU 19

2nd & 17Passing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +3.34

Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 19 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 3 yds to the HOU 28

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Donovan Smith run for 3 yds to the HOU 31

3rd & 4Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.37

Donovan Smith run for 4 yds to the HOU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Donovan Smith run for 7 yds to the HOU 42

2nd & 3Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.47

Donovan Smith pass complete to Parker Jenkins for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 41

3rd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.91

Donovan Smith pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 6 yds to the HOU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.60

Parker Jenkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the HOU 45

2nd & 12Rush0 ydsPPA -0.82

Donovan Smith run for no gain to the HOU 45

3rd & 12Fumble Recovery (Own)-7 ydsPPA -0.77

Donovan Smith run for a loss of 7 yards to the HOU 38 Donovan Smith fumbled, recovered by HOU Donovan Smith D. Smith return for 0 yds

4th & 19Punt0 yds

Liam Dougherty punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Donovan Smith at the CIN 20

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.11

Corey Kiner run for 9 yds to the CIN 29

2nd & 1Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.28

Corey Kiner run for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 28

3rd & 2Penalty+6 yds

(03:51) SORSBY, Brendan pass to the left incomplete intended for GROVER, Gavin thrown to the CIN35, clock 03:45. PENALTY HOU Pass Interference on MCLAURIN, Hershey enforced at the spot of the foul for 6 yards to the CIN34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.92

Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 22 yds to the HOU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+44 ydsPPA +3.41

Corey Kiner run for 44 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+18 yds

Nathan Hawks kickoff for 65 yds , Bryan Massey return for 18 yds to the HOU 9

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.80

Stacy Sneed run for 9 yds to the HOU 18

2nd & 1Pass Reception-4 ydsPPA -1.11

Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson for a loss of 4 yards to the HOU 14

3rd & 5Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.92

Donovan Smith run for 9 yds to the HOU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+52 ydsPPA +3.51

Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for 52 yds to the CIN 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.65

Stacy Sneed run for 9 yds to the CIN 16

2nd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.51

Donovan Smith run for 1 yd to the CIN 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.25

Stacy Sneed run for 1 yd to the CIN 14

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.34

Donovan Smith pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.52

Donovan Smith pass incomplete

4th & 9Field Goal Missed+32 yds

Joseph Kim 32 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Evan Pryor run for no gain to the CIN 20

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Barry Jackson Jr. for 5 yds to the CIN 25

3rd & 5Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.57

Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Joe Royer for 9 yds to the CIN 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Evan Pryor run for 7 yds to the CIN 41

2nd & 3Penalty-5 yds

Cincinnati Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CIN 36

2nd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.77

Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tyrin Smith for 10 yds to the CIN 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the CIN 48

2nd & 8Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Kalen Carroll for 6 yds to the HOU 46

3rd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.09

Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the HOU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

(08:18) SORSBY, Brendan pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HENDERSON, Xzavier thrown to the HOU10, clock 08:14. PENALTY HOU Holding on DAVIS, Kriston enforced 10 yards from the HOU44 to the HOU34 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Evan Pryor run for 1 yd to the HOU 33

2nd & 9Penalty+10 yds

(07:38) SORSBY, Brendan pass to the right incomplete intended for TURNER, Aaron broken up by WILK, Teagan at the HOU23, clock 07:35. PENALTY HOU Holding on WILK, Teagan enforced 10 yards from the HOU33 to the HOU23 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.15

Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Corey Kiner for 13 yds to the HOU 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.59

Brendan Sorsby sacked by Xavier Stillman for a loss of 5 yards to the HOU 15

2nd & 15Passing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +3.10

Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Xzavier Henderson for 15 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.96

Donovan Smith pass complete to Maliq Carr for a loss of 3 yards to the HOU 22

2nd & 13Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.24

Donovan Smith pass complete to Joseph Manjack IV for a loss of 1 yard to the HOU 21

3rd & 14Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.05

Donovan Smith run for 2 yds to the HOU 23

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Liam Dougherty punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tyrin Smith at the CIN 47

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Corey Kiner run for 2 yds to the CIN 49

2nd & 8Pass Reception+17 ydsPPA +1.82

Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Tony Johnson for 17 yds to the HOU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the HOU 29

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.69

Corey Kiner run for no gain to the HOU 29

3rd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.68

Brendan Sorsby run for 1 yd to the HOU 28

4th & 4Field Goal Good+46 yds

Nathan Hawks 46 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+20 yds

Nathan Hawks kickoff for 64 yds , Bryan Massey return for 20 yds to the HOU 21

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.25

Donovan Smith pass complete to Stephon Johnson for 3 yds to the HOU 24

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Donovan Smith pass complete to Stacy Sneed for 6 yds to the HOU 30

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.00

Donovan Smith run for 4 yds to the HOU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Donovan Smith pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.57

Donovan Smith pass complete to Jonah Wilson for no gain to the HOU 34

3rd & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.37

Donovan Smith pass complete to Maliq Carr for 8 yds to the HOU 42

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Liam Dougherty punt for 52 yds, downed at the CIN 6

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.29

(00:12) [NHSG] Kneel down by SORSBY, Brendan at CIN6 (team loss of 0), clock 00:06.

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.61

Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 18 yds to the HOU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.68

Donovan Smith pass complete to Re'Shaun Sanford II for 7 yds to the 50 yard line

2nd & 3Penalty+15 yds

(13:43) SMITH, Donovan pass deep to the left incomplete intended for JOHNSON, Stephon thrown to the CIN33, clock 13:40. PENALTY CIN Pass Interference on YOUNG, Jordan enforced 15 yards to the CIN35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Donovan Smith run for 4 yds to the CIN 31

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.74

Donovan Smith pass incomplete

3rd & 6Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+20 ydsPPA -3.22

Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 20 yds to the CIN 11 fumbled, recovered by CIN Trevon Gola-Callard T. Gola-Callard return for 0 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the CIN 15

2nd & 6Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Sterling Berkhalter for 5 yds to the CIN 20

3rd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.67

Corey Kiner run for 5 yds to the CIN 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Chance Williams run for 4 yds to the CIN 29

2nd & 6Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.92

Chance Williams run for 16 yds to the CIN 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+47 ydsPPA +1.96

Brendan Sorsby pass complete to Sterling Berkhalter for 47 yds to the HOU 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete

2nd & 8Rushing Touchdown+8 ydsPPA +2.68

Brendan Sorsby run for 8 yds for a TD (Nathan Hawks KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+56 yds

Nathan Hawks kickoff for 56 yds , Bryan Massey return for no gain to the HOU 25 , return for 16 yds to the HOU 25

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Zeon Chriss run for 8 yds to the HOU 33

2nd & 2Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.80

Zeon Chriss run for 11 yds to the HOU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Stacy Sneed run for 1 yd to the HOU 45

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Zeon Chriss run for 7 yds to the CIN 48

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -1.13

Zeon Chriss run for no gain to the CIN 48

4th & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +2.36

Zeon Chriss run for 3 yds to the CIN 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Parker Jenkins run for 2 yds to the CIN 43

2nd & 8Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.41

Zeon Chriss sacked by Kameron Wilson for a loss of 7 yards to the 50 yard line

3rd & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Parker Jenkins run for 5 yds to the CIN 45

4th & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.60

Zeon Chriss pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Brendan Sorsby pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.18

Corey Kiner run for a loss of 2 yards to the CIN 43

3rd & 12Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Corey Kiner run for 4 yds to the CIN 47

4th & 8Penalty-5 yds

Cincinnati Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CIN 42

4th & 13Punt+2 yds

Mason Fletcher punt for 37 yds , Mekhi Mews returns for 2 yds to the HOU 23

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.06

Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 13 yds to the HOU 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.46

Zeon Chriss pass complete to Re'Shaun Sanford II for 16 yds to the CIN 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.84

Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 1 yd to the CIN 47

2nd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Zeon Chriss run for 5 yds to the CIN 42

3rd & 4Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Zeon Chriss pass complete to Mekhi Mews for 3 yds to the CIN 39

4th & 1Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+7 ydsPPA -2.15

Re'Shaun Sanford II run for 7 yds to the CIN 32 fumbled, recovered by CIN Jordan Robinson J. Robinson return for 0 yds

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.07

Corey Kiner run for a loss of 1 yard to the CIN 31

2nd & 11Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.02

Brady Lichtenberg pass complete to Joe Royer for 10 yds to the CIN 41

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.92

Brady Lichtenberg pass incomplete

4th & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA +2.30

Manny Covey run for 5 yds to the CIN 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.21

Manny Covey run for 9 yds to the HOU 45

2nd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Manny Covey run for 3 yds to the HOU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Brady Lichtenberg run for 2 yds to the HOU 40

2nd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.48

Brady Lichtenberg pass complete to Devyn Zahursky for 7 yds to the HOU 33

3rd & 1Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.71

Chance Williams run for 15 yds to the HOU 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Chance Williams run for 3 yds to the HOU 15

2nd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.51

Brady Lichtenberg pass complete to Sterling Berkhalter for 8 yds to the HOU 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.13

Brady Lichtenberg run for 5 yds to the HOU 2

2nd & 2Fumble Recovery (Own)-5 ydsPPA -0.82

Brady Lichtenberg run for a loss of 5 yards to the HOU 7 Brady Lichtenberg fumbled, recovered by CIN Brady Lichtenberg B. Lichtenberg return for 0 yds

3rd & 7Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.75

Brady Lichtenberg sacked by Anthony Holmes Jr. and Quindario Lee for a loss of 4 yards to the HOU 11

4th & 11Penalty-5 yds

Cincinnati Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the HOU 16

4th & 16Field Goal Good+34 yds

Nathan Hawks 34 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+14 yds

Nathan Hawks kickoff for 59 yds , Bryan Massey return for 14 yds to the HOU 20

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Zeon Chriss pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.26

Zeon Chriss pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.12

Zeon Chriss run for no gain to the HOU 20

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Liam Dougherty punt for 37 yds, downed at the CIN 43

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Victor Dawson run for 2 yds to the CIN 45

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Victor Dawson run for 4 yds to the CIN 49

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Victor Dawson run for 2 yds to the HOU 49

4th & 2Penalty+5 yds

Houston Penalty, Offsides (Xavier Stillman) to the HOU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.42

(00:14) [SG] Kneel down by LICHTENBERG, Brady at HOU46 (team loss of 2), clock 00:09.

Situational Analysis

Houston

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
43%
21 plays
2nd
25%
4 plays
0%
1 play
38%
8 plays
0%
3 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
60%
5 plays
50%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play

Cincinnati

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
38%
26 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
3 plays
67%
3 plays
78%
9 plays
75%
4 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
33%
3 plays
0%
1 play
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play