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← Back to GamesSep 14, 2024Week 3

House Prediction

Model Margin

Air Force by 1

Home Win Probability

Baylor 46%

Market (Bovada)

Baylor -17

Edge: Air Force +17 (17.9 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 14, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Air ForceAir Force
03003
BaylorBaylor
3317831

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014283-03-313-320-323-331-3
BaylorAir Force

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20AFBAYAFBAYAFBAYAFBAYAFBAYAFBAYBAYAFBAYAFBAYAFBAYAFBAYAFBAYPUNT1323ydFG4-1ydPUNT38ydTO541ydMISS1046ydDOWNS646ydFG1665ydTO554ydPUNT32ydTO326ydTO36ydFG222ydTD775ydPUNT31ydTD764ydTO59ydFG827ydDOWNS49ydTD233ydPUNT38ydMISS836ydTO321ydEND928yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Air Force and Baylor
StatisticAir ForceBaylor
Passing2-818-24
Pass Yards25248
Rush Yards193230
Total Yards218478
Turnovers33
3rd Down6-174-10
Penalties5-486-55
Possession33:5826:02

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Air Force
passing
Josh Johnson
1/2, 18 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Cade Harris
8 CAR, 71 YDS
receiving
James Roberson
1 REC, 18 YDS
defense
Baylor
passing
Sawyer Robertson
18/24, 248 YDS
rushing
Bryson Washington
12 CAR, 106 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Ashtyn Hawkins
4 REC, 81 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

John Busha run for 5 yds to the AFA 30

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.48

Roman Bradley run for 2 yds to the AFA 32

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.33

Roman Bradley run for 2 yds to the AFA 34

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.65

John Busha run for 2 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.04

John Busha run for 8 yds to the AFA 44

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -1.09

John Busha run for 1 yd to the AFA 45

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +1.11

John Busha run for 2 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Owen Allen run for 4 yds to the BAY 49

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.68

John Busha run for 2 yds to the BAY 47

3rd & 4Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.83

Cade Harris run for 9 yds to the BAY 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

(08:47) CALVERT, Aiden rush to the left for a gain of 7 yards to the BAY31 (REED, Chateau), out of bounds, clock 08:42. PENALTY AFA Personal Foul on SMITH, Quin enforced 15 yards from the BAY38 to the AFA47 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 25Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.57

Roman Bradley run for 1 yd to the AFA 48

2nd & 24Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

John Busha pass incomplete

3rd & 24Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

John Busha pass incomplete

4th & 24Blocked Punt0 yds

punt blocked by Caleb Parker blocked by Caleb Parker , returns for no gain to the AFA 28

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Bryson Washington run for 3 yds to the AFA 25

3rd & 7Sack-4 ydsPPA -1.65

Sawyer Robertson sacked by Payton Zdroik for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 29

4th & 11Field Goal Good+46 yds

Isaiah Hankins 46 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

John Busha run for no gain to the AFA 25

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.17

Aiden Calvert run for 6 yds to the AFA 31

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

John Busha run for 2 yds to the AFA 33

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Luke Freer punt for 35 yds

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Bryson Washington run for 5 yds to the BAY 37

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Bryson Washington run for 2 yds to the BAY 39

3rd & 3Pass Reception+25 ydsPPA +3.02

Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 25 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.31

Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 11 yds to the AFA 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

(03:10) ROBERTSON, Sawyer pass deep to the right complete for 24 yards to CAMERON, Josh caught at the AFA8 and advanced to the AFA1 (BELLAMY, Jamari), clock 03:03. PENALTY BAY Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on TRIGG, Michael enforced 5 yards from the AFA25 to the AFA30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 15Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+3 ydsPPA -3.81

Dawson Pendergrass run for 3 yds to the AFA 27 Dawson Pendergrass fumbled, recovered by AFA Osaro Aihie O. Aihie return for 0 yds

1st & 10Rush+26 ydsPPA +2.32

Cade Harris run for 26 yds to the BAY 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Owen Allen run for 3 yds to the BAY 44

2nd & 7Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.33

Cade Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 45

3rd & 8Rush+10 ydsPPA +2.32

John Busha run for 10 yds to the BAY 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.25

John Busha run for a loss of 3 yards to the BAY 38

2nd & 13Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.52

Cade Harris run for 13 yds to the BAY 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Roman Bradley run for 4 yds to the BAY 21

2nd & 6Penalty-5 yds

Air Force Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BAY 26

2nd & 11Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.84

Cade Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 27

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.97

John Busha pass incomplete

4th & 12Field Goal Missed+45 yds

Matthew Dapore 45 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.51

Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the BAY 30

2nd & 8Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +3.39

Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 35 yds to the AFA 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 6 yds to the AFA 29

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the AFA 26

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -3.28

Richard Reese run for no gain to the AFA 26

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

John Busha run for 3 yds to the AFA 29

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Cade Harris run for 6 yds to the AFA 35

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.98

Roman Bradley run for 2 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

John Busha pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Aiden Calvert run for 3 yds to the AFA 40

3rd & 7Penalty+10 yds

(08:47) BUSHA, John pass to the right complete for 8 yards to CALVERT, Aiden caught at the AFA48 and advanced to the AFA48, End of Play, clock 08:48. PENALTY BAY Holding on REED, Chateau enforced 10 yards from the AFA40 to the AFA50 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

John Busha run for 2 yds to the BAY 48

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Roman Bradley run for 3 yds to the BAY 45

3rd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Aiden Calvert run for 3 yds to the BAY 42

4th & 2Rush+16 ydsPPA +2.57

Cade Harris run for 16 yds to the BAY 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.36

Roman Bradley run for 1 yd to the BAY 25

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.28

John Busha run for 7 yds to the BAY 18

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.25

Kemper Hodges run for 4 yds to the BAY 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Kemper Hodges run for 4 yds to the BAY 10

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Roman Bradley run for 2 yds to the BAY 8

3rd & 4Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.43

Kemper Hodges run for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 9

4th & 5Field Goal Good+26 yds

Matthew Dapore 26 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 13 yds to the BAY 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 3 yds to the BAY 41

2nd & 7Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +1.62

Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 10 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 5 yds to the AFA 44

2nd & 5Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+23 ydsPPA -3.34

Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Bryson Washington for 23 yds Bryson Washington fumbled, recovered by AFA Houston Hendrix H. Hendrix return for 0 yds

1st & 10Penalty-3 yds

(01:29) QB Keeper BUSHA, John rush to the right for a gain of 3 yards to the AFA24 (JOHNSON, Lorando), clock 01:24. PENALTY AFA Personal Foul on FLOYSAND, Samuel enforced half the distance from the goal, 10 yards from the AFA21 to the AFA11. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.22

Kemper Hodges run for 9 yds to the AFA 20

2nd & 11Rush0 ydsPPA -0.23

John Busha run for no gain to the AFA 20

3rd & 11Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.05

Kemper Hodges run for 3 yds to the AFA 23

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Carson Bay punt for 52 yds, downed at the BAY 25

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete

3rd & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+26 ydsPPA +0.13

Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 26 yds Michael Trigg fumbled, recovered by AFA Kyle Chen K. Chen return for 0 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

John Busha pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Cade Harris run for 3 yds to the BAY 48

3rd & 7Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+3 ydsPPA -1.55

John Busha run for 3 yds to the BAY 45 Lorando Johnson fumbled, recovered by BAY Devyn Bobby D. Bobby return for 0 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.37

Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 22 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Field Goal Good+51 yds

Isaiah Hankins 51 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Richard Reese for a loss of 1 yard to the BAY 24

2nd & 11Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +2.32

Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 18 yds to the BAY 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.69

Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the BAY 44

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.63

Richard Reese run for 7 yds to the AFA 49

3rd & 1Penalty-10 yds

Baylor Penalty, Offensive Holding (Josh Cameron) to the AFA 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.20

Bryson Washington run for 6 yds to the AFA 19

2nd & 4Rushing Touchdown+19 ydsPPA +2.50

Bryson Washington run for 19 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

John Busha run for 1 yd to the AFA 26

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

John Busha run for no gain to the AFA 26

3rd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.19

John Busha run for no gain to the AFA 26

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Luke Freer punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 36

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Bryson Washington run for 4 yds to the BAY 40

2nd & 6Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +2.21

Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 22 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Bryson Washington run for 6 yds to the AFA 32

3rd & 4Penalty+5 yds

(09:13) ROBERTSON, Sawyer pass deep to the right incomplete intended for HAWKINS, Ashtyn thrown to the AFA0, clock 09:15. PENALTY AFA Offsides on ADAMS, Jackson enforced 5 yards from the AFA32 to the AFA27 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.49

Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Michael Trigg for 8 yds to the AFA 19

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.58

Richard Reese run for no gain to the AFA 19

3rd & 2Penalty+13 yds

(08:14) ROBERTSON, Sawyer pass deep to the right incomplete intended for CAMERON, Josh thrown to the AFA0, clock 08:10. PENALTY AFA Pass Interference on GAILLARD, JR., Jerome enforced at the spot of the foul for 13 yards to the AFA6 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 6Rushing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.05

Sawyer Robertson run for 6 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Aiden Calvert run for 7 yds to the AFA 32

2nd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Owen Allen run for 2 yds to the AFA 34

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.95

John Busha run for 2 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

John Busha run for 3 yds to the AFA 39

2nd & 7Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-5 ydsPPA -1.44

John Busha run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 34 Kelsey Johnson fumbled, recovered by BAY Devonte Tezino D. Tezino return for 0 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.01

Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Jamaal Bell for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 36

2nd & 12Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.03

Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Josh Cameron for 11 yds to the AFA 25

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.25

Dawson Pendergrass run for 2 yds to the AFA 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.15

Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 13 yds to the AFA 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Dawson Pendergrass run for 8 yds to the AFA 2

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.31

Dawson Pendergrass run for no gain to the AFA 2

4th & 2Penalty-5 yds

Baylor Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 7

4th & 7Field Goal Good+24 yds

Isaiah Hankins 24 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Kemper Hodges run for 1 yd to the AFA 26

2nd & 9Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Quentin Hayes run for 1 yd to the AFA 27

3rd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.21

Quentin Hayes pass complete to Bruin Fleischmann for 7 yds to the AFA 34

4th & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.20

Quentin Hayes run for no gain to the AFA 34

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Richard Reese run for 5 yds to the AFA 28

2nd & 5Rushing Touchdown+28 ydsPPA +2.82

Richard Reese run for 28 yds for a TD (S. Robertson Run For Two-point Conversion)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Kemper Hodges run for 2 yds to the AFA 27

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Tylor Latham run for 3 yds to the AFA 30

3rd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Quentin Hayes run for 3 yds to the AFA 33

4th & 2Punt+20 yds

Luke Freer punt for 49 yds , Josh Cameron returns for 20 yds to the BAY 38

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Bryson Washington run for 6 yds to the BAY 44

2nd & 4Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.20

Bryson Washington run for 13 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Bryson Washington run for 6 yds to the AFA 37

2nd & 4Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.22

Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

(10:06) ROBERTSON, Sawyer pass short to the left complete for 2 yards to YATES, Gavin caught at the AFA30 and advanced to the AFA29 (HENDRIX, Houston), clock 10:01. PENALTY BAY Holding on HAWKINS, Ashtyn enforced 10 yards from the AFA31 to the AFA41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.89

Dominic Richardson run for 10 yds to the AFA 31

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.26

Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the AFA 28

3rd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.49

Bryson Washington run for 2 yds to the AFA 26

4th & 5Field Goal Missed+44 yds

Isaiah Hankins 44 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.64

Josh Johnson pass complete to Tre Roberson for 18 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Tylor Latham run for 3 yds to the AFA 47

2nd & 7Pass Interception Return+37 ydsPPA -2.20

Josh Johnson pass intercepted Corey Gordon Jr. return for 37 yds to the BAY 49

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Dominic Richardson run for 6 yds to the AFA 45

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.39

Dominic Richardson run for 3 yds to the AFA 42

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.82

Sawyer Robertson run for 3 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.35

Dominic Richardson run for 10 yds to the AFA 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the AFA 25

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.44

Joseph Hagman run for 1 yd to the AFA 24

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Dominic Richardson run for 4 yds to the AFA 20

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.76

Dominic Richardson run for 2 yds to the AFA 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-15 yds

HAGMAN, Joseph rush to the left for a gain of 4 yards to the AFA14 (JOHNSON, Korey), clock 00:33. PENALTY BAY Personal Foul enforced 15 yards from the AFA18 to the AFA33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 25Fumble Recovery (Own)+10 ydsPPA +0.76

Joseph Hagman run for 10 yds to the AFA 23 Joseph Hagman fumbled, recovered by BAY return for 0 yds

Situational Analysis

Air Force

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
24%
21 plays
50%
2 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
0%
3 plays
25%
12 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
80%
5 plays
20%
5 plays
50%
4 plays
0%
3 plays
4th
67%
3 plays

Baylor

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
60%
25 plays
67%
3 plays
2nd
0%
2 plays
50%
10 plays
57%
7 plays
100%
2 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
0%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
50%
2 plays