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← Back to GamesAug 31, 2024Week 1

House Prediction

Model Margin

Tarleton State by 6

Home Win Probability

Baylor 34%

Market (ESPN Bet)

Baylor -33.5

Edge: Tarleton State +33.5 (39.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Aug 31, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Tarleton State
00303
BaylorBaylor
21771045

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-021-028-035-338-345-3
BaylorTarleton State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20BAYTSBAYTSBAYTSTSBAYTSBAYTSBAYTSBAYTSBAYTSBAYTSBAYTSBAYTSBAYTSBAYTD566ydPUNT6-1ydPUNT33ydPUNT3-11ydTD546ydTD23ydPUNT39ydPUNT3-4ydPUNT36ydTD966ydPUNT31ydTO1043ydMISS873ydEND13ydFG858ydTD763ydDOWNS1042ydTO321ydPUNT36ydDOWNS629ydPUNT31ydFG822ydPUNT3-1ydTD983ydPUNT37ydEND324yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Tarleton State and Baylor
StatisticTarleton StateBaylor
Passing7-1518-28
Pass Yards80278
Rush Yards101164
Total Yards181442
Turnovers12
3rd Down2-1510-15
Penalties7-716-67
Possession31:2028:40

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Tarleton State
passing
Daniel Greek
7/13, 80 YDS
rushing
Kayvon Britten
13 CAR, 68 YDS
receiving
Darius Cooper
2 REC, 44 YDS
defense
Baylor
passing
Dequan Finn
14/22, 192 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
rushing
Richard Reese
18 CAR, 78 YDS
receiving
Ketron Jackson
2 REC, 69 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the BAY 37

2nd & 7Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Richard Reese run for 6 yds to the BAY 43

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.29

Richard Reese run for 4 yds to the BAY 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.95

Dequan Finn pass complete to Josh Cameron for 14 yds to the TAR 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+39 ydsPPA +3.14

Dequan Finn run for 39 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Kayvon Britten run for 2 yds to the TAR 27

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Kayvon Britten run for 4 yds to the TAR 31

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.47

Kayvon Britten run for 5 yds to the TAR 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Kayvon Britten run for no gain to the TAR 36

2nd & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.04

Jaden Pete sacked by Garmon Randolph for a loss of 7 yards to the TAR 29

3rd & 17Fumble Recovery (Own)-5 ydsPPA -0.15

run for a loss of 5 yards to the TAR 24 fumbled, recovered by TAR Kayvon Britten K. Britten return for 0 yds

4th & 22Punt0 yds

Adrian Guzman punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 37

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Dawson Pendergrass run for 5 yds to the BAY 42

3rd & 5Penalty-10 yds

(09:28) QB Keeper FINN, Dequan rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the BAY45 (HOLT, Caden), clock 09:29. PENALTY BAY Holding on AIGBEDION, Omar enforced 10 yards from the BAY42 to the BAY32 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 15Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.20

Dequan Finn pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 8 yds to the BAY 40

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Palmer Williams punt for 37 yds

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.87

Jaden Pete run for a loss of 3 yards to the TAR 20

2nd & 13Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Jaden Pete pass incomplete

3rd & 13Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.13

Jaden Pete sacked by Treven Ma'ae for a loss of 8 yards to the TAR 12

4th & 21Punt0 yds

Adrian Guzman punt for 34 yds

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.03

Dequan Finn run for no gain to the TAR 46

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Dequan Finn pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 5 yds to the TAR 41

3rd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.52

Richard Reese run for 6 yds to the TAR 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the TAR 32

2nd & 7Passing Touchdown+32 ydsPPA +3.19

Dequan Finn pass complete to Ashtyn Hawkins for 32 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Derrel Kelley III run for 3 yds to the TAR 28

2nd & 7Interception Return Touchdown+35 ydsPPA -7.63

Jaden Pete pass intercepted Keaton Thomas return for 35 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)0 yds

Jack Stone kickoff for 65 yds , Deangelo Rosemond return for no gain to the TAR 8

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.13

Derrel Kelley III run for 3 yds to the TAR 11

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Daniel Greek run for 4 yds to the TAR 15

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Derrel Kelley III run for 2 yds to the TAR 17

4th & 1Punt0 yds

Adrian Guzman punt for 40 yds, downed at the BAY 43

1st & 10Sack-11 ydsPPA -2.60

Dequan Finn sacked by Caimyn Layne for a loss of 11 yards to the BAY 32

2nd & 21Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.13

Dequan Finn pass complete to Richard Reese for 2 yds to the BAY 34

3rd & 19Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Dequan Finn pass complete to Richard Reese for 5 yds to the BAY 39

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Palmer Williams punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Blake Smith at the TAR 11

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Kayvon Britten run for 4 yds to the TAR 15

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.22

Kayvon Britten run for 2 yds to the TAR 17

3rd & 4Penalty-5 yds

Tarleton State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the TAR 12

3rd & 9Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Kayvon Britten run for 5 yds to the TAR 17

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Adrian Guzman punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 34

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Dawson Pendergrass run for 7 yds to the BAY 41

2nd & 3Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.71

Dawson Pendergrass run for 8 yds to the BAY 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Dawson Pendergrass run for 2 yds to the TAR 49

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.65

Dawson Pendergrass run for 2 yds to the TAR 47

3rd & 6Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +2.90

Dequan Finn pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 39 yds to the TAR 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.36

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Dawson Pendergrass run for 4 yds to the TAR 4

3rd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Dawson Pendergrass run for 3 yds to the TAR 1

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.79

Dawson Pendergrass run for 1 yd for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Derrel Kelley III run for no gain to the TAR 25

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Derrel Kelley III run for 1 yd to the TAR 26

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Daniel Greek pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Adrian Guzman punt for 34 yds

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.02

Richard Reese run for 8 yds to the BAY 48

2nd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -1.35

Richard Reese run for no gain to the BAY 48

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.33

Dawson Pendergrass run for 3 yds to the TAR 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the TAR 46

2nd & 7Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.65

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jadon Porter for 2 yds to the TAR 44

3rd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.77

Richard Reese run for 8 yds to the TAR 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -1.50

Dequan Finn run for a loss of 4 yards to the TAR 40

2nd & 14Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the TAR 38

3rd & 12Penalty+15 yds

(04:04) FINN, Dequan pass deep to the right incomplete intended for TRIGG, Michael broken up by STUART, Donta at the TAR20, clock 03:51. PENALTY TAR Pass Interference on STUART, Donta enforced 15 yards to the TAR23 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.47

Dequan Finn pass complete to Michael Trigg for 16 yds to the TAR 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Penalty-10 yds

(03:25) QB Keeper FINN, Dequan rush to the left for a gain of 6 yards to the TAR1, End of Play, clock 03:21. PENALTY BAY Holding on FUGAR, Sidney enforced 10 yards from the TAR7 to the TAR17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 17Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.06

Dequan Finn pass intercepted, touchback. Kasyus Kurns return for no gain

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

(02:56) GREEK, Daniel pass deep to the right incomplete intended for COOPER, Darius thrown to the TAR48, clock 02:50. PENALTY BAY Pass Interference on THORNTON JR., LeVar enforced 15 yards to the TAR35 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +2.43

Daniel Greek pass complete to Darius Cooper for 35 yds to the BAY 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.56

Kayvon Britten run for no gain to the BAY 30

2nd & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Daniel Greek pass complete to Dawson Hearne for 4 yds to the BAY 26

3rd & 6Penalty+3 yds

Baylor Penalty, Personal Foul (Steve Linton) to the BAY 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Kayvon Britten run for 2 yds to the BAY 9

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Kayvon Britten run for 2 yds to the BAY 7

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Daniel Greek pass incomplete

4th & 6Field Goal Missed+24 yds

Michael James 24 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the BAY 23

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Daniel Greek pass complete to Darius Cooper for 9 yds to the TAR 34

2nd & 1Rush+30 ydsPPA +1.81

Kayvon Britten run for 30 yds to the BAY 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.77

Kayvon Britten run for 9 yds to the BAY 27

2nd & 1Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.42

Daniel Greek pass complete to Dawson Hearne for 4 yds to the BAY 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.42

Daniel Greek pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Derrel Kelley III run for 3 yds to the BAY 20

3rd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.20

Daniel Greek run for 3 yds to the BAY 17

4th & 4Field Goal Good+34 yds

Adrian Guzman 34 yd FG GOOD

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+8 yds

Michael James kickoff for 36 yds , Josh Cameron return for 8 yds to the BAY 37

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.87

Dawson Pendergrass run for 1 yd to the BAY 38

2nd & 9Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.62

Dequan Finn pass complete to Dawson Pendergrass for 1 yd to the BAY 39

3rd & 8Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +3.40

Dequan Finn pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 22 yds to the TAR 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+10 yds

(09:30) FINN, Dequan pass deep to the left intercepted by RAWLS, Ty at the TAR0 intended for JACKSON JR., Ketron. Rawls return for 0 yards to the TAR0, touchback., clock 09:28. PENALTY TAR Holding on RAWLS, Ty enforced 10 yards from the TAR39 to the TAR29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.50

Dawson Pendergrass run for 8 yds to the TAR 21

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.30

Dawson Pendergrass run for 4 yds to the TAR 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.34

Dawson Pendergrass run for no gain to the TAR 17

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +2.92

Dequan Finn pass complete to Michael Trigg for 17 yds for a TD (Isaiah Hankins KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Braelon Bridges run for 2 yds to the TAR 27

2nd & 8Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.43

Braelon Bridges run for 7 yds to the TAR 34

3rd & 1Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.05

Braelon Bridges run for 3 yds to the TAR 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.04

Daniel Greek pass complete to Benjamin Omayebu for 11 yds to the TAR 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Braelon Bridges run for 1 yd to the TAR 49

2nd & 9Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.72

Daniel Greek pass complete to Benjamin Omayebu for 11 yds to the BAY 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Daniel Greek pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Braelon Bridges run for 6 yds to the BAY 34

3rd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Braelon Bridges run for 1 yd to the BAY 33

4th & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -2.45

Daniel Greek pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.89

Dequan Finn pass complete to Jadon Porter for 21 yds to the TAR 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -2.43

Dequan Finn pass intercepted Ty Rawls return for no gain to the TAR 3

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.22

Derrel Kelley III run for 1 yd to the TAR 4

2nd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.09

Daniel Greek pass complete to Benjamin Omayebu for 6 yds to the TAR 10

3rd & 3Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.21

Daniel Greek run for a loss of 1 yard to the TAR 9

4th & 4Punt+9 yds

Adrian Guzman punt for 34 yds , Josh Cameron returns for 9 yds to the TAR 34

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.01

Richard Reese run for a loss of 2 yards to the TAR 36

2nd & 12Rush+24 ydsPPA +1.42

Richard Reese run for 24 yds to the TAR 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Richard Reese run for 5 yds to the TAR 7

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

3rd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.17

Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the TAR 5

4th & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -4.04

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

Daniel Greek pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.11

Braelon Bridges run for 1 yd to the TAR 7

3rd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.07

Derrel Kelley III run for no gain to the TAR 7

4th & 9Punt+9 yds

Adrian Guzman punt for 46 yds , Josh Cameron returns for 9 yds to the TAR 44

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Dawson Pendergrass run for 6 yds to the TAR 38

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.31

Dawson Pendergrass run for 3 yds to the TAR 35

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.53

Dawson Pendergrass run for 2 yds to the TAR 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+8 yds

Tarleton State Penalty, Personal Foul (AJ Owens) to the TAR 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-12 ydsPPA -1.46

Dequan Finn run for a loss of 12 yards to the TAR 24 Dequan Finn fumbled, recovered by BAY Dequan Finn D. Finn return for 0 yds

2nd & 22Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.92

Dequan Finn pass incomplete

3rd & 22Penalty-5 yds

Baylor Penalty, False Start (Omar Aigbedion) to the TAR 29

3rd & 27Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.43

Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the TAR 22

4th & 20Field Goal Good+39 yds

Isaiah Hankins 39 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Derrel Kelley III run for 3 yds to the TAR 28

2nd & 7Penalty-10 yds

(09:03) KELLEY III, Derrel rush to the right for no gain to the TAR28 (MILLER, Brooks;THORNTON JR., LeVar), clock 08:58. PENALTY TAR Holding on ERNST, Layton enforced 10 yards from the TAR28 to the TAR18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 17Rush0 ydsPPA -0.11

Derrel Kelley III run for no gain to the TAR 18

3rd & 17Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.02

Derrel Kelley III run for 6 yds to the TAR 24

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Adrian Guzman punt for 44 yds, downed at the BAY 16

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.60

Richard Reese run for a loss of 2 yards to the BAY 15

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.15

Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete

3rd & 12Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.34

Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Matthew Klopfenstein for 23 yds to the BAY 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Richard Reese run for 2 yds to the BAY 40

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Richard Reese run for 3 yds to the BAY 43

3rd & 5Penalty+10 yds

(05:12) ROBERTSON, Sawyer pass short to the left incomplete intended for CAMERON, Josh thrown to the BAY47, clock 05:06. PENALTY TAR Holding on KURNS, Kasyus enforced 10 yards from the BAY43 to the TAR47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +0.71

Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Monaray Baldwin for 14 yds to the TAR 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

Sawyer Robertson pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

Dawson Pendergrass run for 3 yds to the TAR 30

3rd & 7Passing Touchdown+30 ydsPPA +3.82

Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 30 yds for a TD (Connor Hawkins KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Braelon Bridges run for no gain to the TAR 25

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Braelon Bridges run for 3 yds to the TAR 28

3rd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Braelon Bridges run for 4 yds to the TAR 32

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Adrian Guzman punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Josh Cameron at the BAY 29

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Joseph Hagman run for 1 yd to the BAY 30

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Joseph Hagman run for 4 yds to the BAY 34

3rd & 5Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.94

Nate Bennett pass complete to Micah Gifford for 19 yds to the TAR 47 for a 1ST down

Situational Analysis

Tarleton State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
19%
21 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play
29%
14 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
33%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
20%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
0%
1 play

Baylor

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
34%
29 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
33%
3 plays
0%
2 plays
38%
13 plays
20%
5 plays
3rd
100%
3 plays
67%
6 plays
100%
2 plays
100%
4 plays
4th
50%
2 plays