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← Back to GamesOct 6, 2024Week 6
MiamiMiami
39
-Final
38
CaliforniaCalifornia
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Miami by 4.2

Home Win Probability

California 34%

Market (Bovada)

California +10

Edge: California +10 (5.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 6, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
MiamiMiami
7382139
CaliforniaCalifornia
71414338

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-714-1021-1028-1035-1838-1838-2538-3238-39
CaliforniaMiami

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MIACALMIACALMIACALMIACALMIACALMIACALCALMIAMIACALMIACALMIACALMIACALMIACALMIAPUNT612ydPUNT3-10ydTD563ydTD789ydDOWNS826ydTD356ydFG1047ydTD475ydPUNT621ydPUNT36ydPUNT721ydEND1-1ydPUNT3-4ydTD10ydPUNT532ydTD580ydTD1275ydFG855ydTD1175ydPUNT58ydTD970ydPUNT421ydTD692ydTO40ydEND1-1yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Miami and California
StatisticMiamiCalifornia
Passing35-5312-24
Pass Yards437297
Rush Yards13873
Total Yards575370
Turnovers11
3rd Down7-162-10
Penalties9-1106-43
Possession37:3522:25

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Miami
passing
Cameron Ward
35/53, 437 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Mark Fletcher Jr.
11 CAR, 81 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Xavier Restrepo
7 REC, 163 YDS
defense
California
passing
Fernando Mendoza
11/22, 285 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Jonathan Brady
1 CAR, 20 YDS
receiving
Jack Endries
3 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.33

Damien Martinez run for 6 yds to the MIA 31

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the MIA 34

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.34

Damien Martinez run for 6 yds to the MIA 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 7 yds to the MIA 47

2nd & 3Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -1.54

Cam Ward pass complete to Samuel Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the MIA 46

3rd & 4Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.60

Cam Ward sacked by Teddye Buchanan and Nate Burrell for a loss of 9 yards to the MIA 37

4th & 13Punt0 yds

Dylan Joyce punt for 36 yds, downed at the CAL 27

1st & 10Rush-7 ydsPPA -1.26

Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 7 yards to the CAL 20

2nd & 17Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Trond Grizzell

3rd & 17Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -0.07

Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for a loss of 3 yards to the CAL 17

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Lachlan Wilson punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Ray Ray Joseph at the MIA 37

1st & 10Rush+28 ydsPPA +2.08

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 28 yds to the CAL 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +0.39

Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 18 yds to the CAL 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 8 yds to the CAL 9

2nd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.66

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 6 yds to the CAL 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+18 yds

Andres Borregales kickoff for 62 yds , Nohl Williams return for 18 yds to the CAL 47 California Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the CAL 11

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Jaydn Ott run for 3 yds to the CAL 14

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.34

Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mikey Matthews for 14 yds to the CAL 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.19

Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Corey Dyches for 15 yds to the CAL 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Jaivian Thomas run for no gain to the CAL 43

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+57 ydsPPA +5.62

Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 57 yds for a TD (Ryan Coe KICK)

2nd & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+30 yds

Ryan Coe kickoff for 65 yds , Chris Johnson Jr. return for 30 yds to the MIA 30

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the MIA 33

2nd & 7Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Cam Ward run for 5 yds to the MIA 38

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.31

Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the MIA 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Cam Ward pass complete to Samuel Brown for 21 yds to the CAL 38 for a 1ST down Miami Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jacolby George) to the MIA 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.63

Cam Ward pass complete to Damien Martinez for 7 yds to the CAL 46

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.21

Cam Ward pass incomplete

3rd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Jordan Lyle run for 1 yd to the CAL 45

4th & 2Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -1.43

Cam Ward pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 1 yd to the CAL 44

1st & 10Pass Reception+51 ydsPPA +2.49

Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Trond Grizzell for 51 yds to the MIA 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.55

Jaydn Ott run for no gain to the MIA 5

2nd & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.44

Jaydn Ott run for 5 yds for a TD (Ryan Coe KICK)

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 8 yds to the MIA 33

2nd & 2Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.24

Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 16 yds to the MIA 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Cam Ward pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the CAL 47

3rd & 6Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +2.12

Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 9 yds to the CAL 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.37

Jacolby George run for a loss of 3 yards to the CAL 41 for a 1ST down California Penalty, Personal Foul (Cade Uluave) to the CAL 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.71

Damien Martinez run for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 28

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Cam Ward pass incomplete

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.98

Cam Ward pass incomplete

4th & 12Field Goal Good+46 yds

Andres Borregales 46 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Fernando Mendoza run for 5 yds to the CAL 30

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.12

Jaydn Ott run for 4 yds to the CAL 34

3rd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete

4th & 1Passing Touchdown+66 ydsPPA +6.80

Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 66 yds for a TD (Ryan Coe KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Jordan Lyle run for 3 yds to the MIA 28

2nd & 7Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 6 yds to the MIA 34

3rd & 1Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.82

Damien Martinez run for 11 yds to the MIA 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Damien Martinez run for 3 yds to the MIA 48

2nd & 7Sack-2 ydsPPA -1.49

Cam Ward sacked by Xavier Carlton for a loss of 2 yards to the MIA 46

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.62

Cam Ward pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt+29 yds

Dylan Joyce punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Mikey Matthews at the CAL 10 Miami Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the CAL 25

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Fernando Mendoza run for 2 yds to the CAL 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.40

Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 1 yd to the CAL 28

3rd & 7Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Nyziah Hunter for 3 yds to the CAL 31

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Lachlan Wilson punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Ray Ray Joseph at the MIA 24

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.19

Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 14 yds to the MIA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.03

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 11 yds to the MIA 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.35

Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 6 yds to the CAL 45

2nd & 4Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.38

Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 5 yds to the CAL 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.27

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 3 yds to the CAL 37

2nd & 7Sack-18 ydsPPA -3.66

Cam Ward sacked by Nate Burrell for a loss of 18 yards to the MIA 45

3rd & 25Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Cam Ward pass incomplete

4th & 25Punt0 yds

Dylan Joyce punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CAL 5

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.32

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 4

0th & 10End of Half-1 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+20 yds

Andres Borregales kickoff for 65 yds , Nohl Williams return for 20 yds to the CAL 20

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Mavin Anderson for 5 yds to the CAL 25

3rd & 5Sack-9 ydsPPA -0.46

Fernando Mendoza sacked by Simeon Barrow Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the CAL 16

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Lachlan Wilson punt for 60 yds, downed at the MIA 24

1st & 10Interception Return Touchdown+40 ydsPPA -7.85

Cam Ward pass intercepted Nohl Williams return for 40 yds for a TD (Ryan Coe KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 1 yd to the MIA 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.98

Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 26 yds to the CAL 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 5 yds to the CAL 43

2nd & 5Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.10

Cam Ward pass complete to Chris Johnson Jr. for no gain to the CAL 43

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Cam Ward pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Dylan Joyce punt for 43 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-5 ydsPPA -0.38

Jaivian Thomas run for a loss of 5 yards to the CAL 15

3rd & 15Pass Reception+56 ydsPPA +4.54

Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jaivian Thomas for 56 yds to the MIA 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +0.36

Fernando Mendoza pass complete to Jack Endries for 20 yds to the MIA 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rushing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Chandler Rogers run for 9 yds for a TD (Ryan Coe KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Cam Ward pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 8 yds to the MIA 33

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.21

Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the MIA 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Cam Ward pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Damien Martinez run for 5 yds to the MIA 43

3rd & 5Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.68

Cam Ward pass complete to Jacolby George for 15 yds to the CAL 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Cam Ward pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.05

Cam Ward pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.51

Cam Ward pass complete to Samuel Brown for 7 yds to the CAL 35

4th & 3Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.93

Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 5 yds to the CAL 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.27

Cam Ward pass complete to Samuel Brown for 16 yds to the CAL 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.61

Cam Ward pass complete to Damien Martinez for 13 yds to the CAL 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Damien Martinez run for 1 yd for a TD (Cam Ward pass to Xavier Restrepo for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Kickoff Return (Offense)+23 yds

Andres Borregales kickoff for 62 yds , Nohl Williams return for 23 yds to the CAL 26

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.82

Jonathan Brady run for 20 yds to the CAL 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+22 ydsPPA +1.31

Fernando Mendoza run for 22 yds to the MIA 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.93

Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 2 yards to the MIA 34

2nd & 12Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.15

Chandler Rogers pass complete to Jaydn Ott for 12 yds to the MIA 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.31

Kadarius Calloway run for 1 yd to the MIA 21

2nd & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Chandler Rogers run for 2 yds to the MIA 19

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.62

Chandler Rogers pass incomplete

4th & 7Field Goal Good+37 yds

Ryan Coe 37 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Cam Ward pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.60

Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 21 yds to the MIA 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

Miami Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MIA 36

1st & 20Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.28

Cam Ward run for 15 yds to the CAL 49

2nd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Mark Fletcher Jr. run for 4 yds to the CAL 45

3rd & 1Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -1.20

Cam Ward pass complete to Riley Williams for no gain to the CAL 45

4th & 1Penalty-5 yds

Miami Penalty, Illegal Motion (Elijah Arroyo) to the 50 yard line

4th & 6Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +3.04

Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 7 yds to the CAL 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +0.75

Cam Ward pass complete to Elija Lofton for 24 yds to the CAL 19 for a 1ST down Miami Penalty, Substitution Infraction (Yards) declined for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.14

Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 13 yds to the CAL 6 for a 1ST down California Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (3 Yards) to the CAL 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Cam Ward pass incomplete

2nd & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Cam Ward pass incomplete to Riley Williams

3rd & 0Penalty-15 yds

Miami Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Samuel Brown) to the CAL 18

3rd & 0Passing Touchdown+18 yds

Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 18 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Jaydn Ott

2nd & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.39

Jaydn Ott run for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 24

3rd & 11Penalty-5 yds

California Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the CAL 19

3rd & 16Penalty+15 yds

Mendoza, Fernando pass sacked for loss of 7 yards to the CAL12 (Baron, Tyler), PENALTY MIAMI face mask 15 yards to the CAL34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CAL.

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Jaivian Thomas run for 3 yds to the CAL 37

2nd & 7Rush0 ydsPPA -0.84

Jaivian Thomas run for no gain to the CAL 37

3rd & 7Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.64

Fernando Mendoza sacked by Rueben Bain Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the CAL 33

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Lachlan Wilson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Xavier Restrepo at the MIA 30

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.23

Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 13 yds to the MIA 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Cam Ward pass incomplete to Isaiah Horton

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Cam Ward pass incomplete to Joshisa Trader

3rd & 10Penalty+5 yds

California Penalty, Defensive Offside (Xavier Carlton) to the MIA 48

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.88

Cam Ward pass incomplete to Xavier Restrepo

4th & 5Penalty-5 yds

Miami Penalty, False Start (Matthew McCoy) to the MIA 43

4th & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +3.55

Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 13 yds to the CAL 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.93

Cam Ward pass complete to Damien Martinez for 9 yds to the CAL 35

2nd & 1Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 2 yds to the CAL 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.72

Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 9 yds to the CAL 24

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+24 ydsPPA +2.18

Cam Ward run for 24 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)

1st & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +1.71

Jaivian Thomas run for 19 yds to the CAL 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Jaivian Thomas run for no gain to the CAL 44

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Jaivian Thomas run for 3 yds to the CAL 47

3rd & 7Penalty-5 yds

California Penalty, False Start (Corey Dyches) to the CAL 42

3rd & 12Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Fernando Mendoza run for 4 yds to the CAL 46

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Lachlan Wilson punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MIA 8

1st & 10Pass Reception+77 ydsPPA +4.29

Cam Ward pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 77 yds to the CAL 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Cam Ward pass complete to Isaiah Horton for 5 yds to the CAL 10

2nd & 5Penalty-15 yds

Miami Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Isaiah Horton) to the CAL 25

2nd & 20Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Cam Ward pass incomplete to Samuel Brown

3rd & 20Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +3.31

Cam Ward pass complete to Damien Martinez for 22 yds to the CAL 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.97

Damien Martinez run for a loss of 2 yards to the CAL 5

2nd & 5Passing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.44

Cam Ward pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 5 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Trond Grizzell

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Corey Dyches

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Fernando Mendoza pass incomplete to Mason Starling

4th & 10Pass Interception Return+17 ydsPPA +0.29

Fernando Mendoza pass intercepted Francisco Mauigoa return for 2 yds to the CAL 27 Miami Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the CAL 48

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.31

TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the CAL 49

Situational Analysis

Miami

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
4 plays
64%
36 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
50%
8 plays
40%
5 plays
50%
10 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
60%
5 plays
40%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
50%
2 plays
100%
1 play
100%
1 play

California

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
33%
21 plays
2nd
50%
2 plays
27%
11 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
0%
1 play
0%
1 play
20%
5 plays
33%
3 plays
4th
100%
1 play
100%
1 play