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← Back to GamesSep 29, 2024Week 5
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

SMU by 13.5

Home Win Probability

SMU 82%

Market (Bovada)

SMU -6

Edge: SMU -6 (7.5 pts)

fitted_v1 · Sep 29, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Florida StateFlorida State
727016
SMUSMU
77141442

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q401428427-07-714-721-928-935-1642-16
SMUFlorida State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20SMUFSSMUFSSMUFSSMUFSSMUFSSMUFSFSSMUFSSMUFSSMUFSFSFSSMUFSSMUTD1175ydTD775ydPUNT611ydPUNT3-13ydPUNT37ydTO429ydTD668ydPUNT3-10ydMISS857ydDOWNS1278ydSAF47ydEND21ydTO26ydTD311ydPUNT510ydTD673ydTD875ydTD1175ydPUNT30ydTD42ydPUNT413ydDOWNS961ydPUNT3-8ydEND819yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Florida State and SMU
StatisticFlorida StateSMU
Passing12-3416-23
Pass Yards222254
Rush Yards73226
Total Yards295480
Turnovers31
3rd Down3-128-15
Penalties10-797-61
Possession24:1935:41

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Florida State
passing
D.J. Uiagalelei
12/30, 222 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
rushing
Lawrance Toafili
15 CAR, 67 YDS
receiving
Ja'Khi Douglas
2 REC, 61 YDS
defense
SMU
passing
Kevin Jennings
16/23, 254 YDS, 3 TD
rushing
Brashard Smith
17 CAR, 129 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Jake Bailey
2 REC, 65 YDS
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Brashard Smith run for 9 yds to the SMU 34

2nd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.42

Brashard Smith run for 1 yd to the SMU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.83

Brashard Smith run for 1 yd to the SMU 36

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.29

Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 3 yds to the SMU 39

3rd & 6Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.75

Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 14 yds to the FSU 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

JENNINGS, Kevin pass deep to the left incomplete intended for DIXON, Kelvontay thrown to the FSU15. PENALTY SMU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on MARYLAND, RJ enforced 5 yards from the FSU47 to the SMU48 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 15Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 6 yds to the FSU 46

2nd & 9Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Brashard Smith run for 4 yds to the FSU 42

3rd & 5Penalty-5 yds

SMU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FSU 47

3rd & 10Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +3.09

Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jake Bailey for 26 yds to the FSU 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 6 yds to the FSU 15

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.25

Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 2 yds to the FSU 13

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.69

Brashard Smith run for 13 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the FSU 27

3rd & 8Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +2.06

DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Hykeem Williams for 11 yds to the FSU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Lawrance Toafili run for 3 yds to the FSU 41

2nd & 7Pass Reception+50 ydsPPA +2.95

DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 50 yds to the SMU 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.32

Lawrance Toafili run for no gain to the SMU 9

2nd & 9Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.74

DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Kentron Poitier for 9 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Kevin Jennings pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Brashard Smith run for 7 yds to the SMU 32

3rd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.51

Kevin Jennings pass complete to Roderick Daniels Jr. for 6 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.99

Kevin Jennings sacked by Joshua Farmer and Blake Nichelson for a loss of 7 yards to the SMU 31

2nd & 17Sack-6 ydsPPA -0.39

Kevin Jennings sacked by Grady Kelly for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 25

3rd & 23Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.15

Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 11 yds to the SMU 36

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Isaac Pearson punt for 43 yds

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.54

Lawrance Toafili run for 7 yds to the FSU 28

2nd & 3Penalty-5 yds

Florida State Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the FSU 23

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.17

Kam Davis run for 3 yds to the FSU 26

3rd & 5Fumble Recovery (Own)-10 ydsPPA -0.49

run for a loss of 10 yards to the FSU 16 fumbled, recovered by FSU DJ Uiagalelei D. Uiagalelei return for 0 yds

4th & 15Penalty-67 yds

MASTROMANNO, Alex punt 67 yards to the SMU17 downed by JOSEPH, Edwin, clock 01:03. PENALTY FSU Holding on MENZER, Malakai enforced half the distance from the goal, 8 yards from the FSU16 to the FSU8 [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

4th & 23Punt+5 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 47 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for 5 yds to the 50 yard line

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.11

Kevin Jennings pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.62

Brashard Smith run for 2 yds to the FSU 48

3rd & 8Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 5 yds to the FSU 43

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Isaac Pearson punt for 43 yds for a touchback

1st & 10Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +1.73

DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Jalen Brown for 21 yds to the FSU 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Kam Davis run for 3 yds to the FSU 44

2nd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Kentron Poitier for 5 yds to the FSU 49

3rd & 2Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -2.01

DJ Uiagalelei pass intercepted Jonathan McGill return for no gain to the SMU 32

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Brashard Smith run for 3 yds to the SMU 35

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Kevin Jennings pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +2.20

Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 8 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Kevin Jennings pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +2.33

Kevin Jennings run for 15 yds to the FSU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+42 ydsPPA +3.29

Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 42 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+21 yds

Collin Rogers kickoff for 65 yds , Deuce Spann return for 21 yds to the FSU 21

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+1 ydsPPA -0.49

Lawrance Toafili run for 1 yd to the FSU 22 Lawrance Toafili fumbled, recovered by FSU return for 0 yds

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete

3rd & 9Penalty0 yds

Florida State Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Intentional Grounding on UIAGALELEI, DJ enforced a result of a (Yards) to the FSU 12

4th & 20Punt-2 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 54 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 33

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 4 yds to the SMU 37

2nd & 6Rush-6 ydsPPA -1.48

Kevin Jennings run for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 31

3rd & 12Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +4.25

Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jake Bailey for 39 yds to the FSU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty+3 yds

Florida State Penalty, Face mask (3 yards) (Darrell Jackson Jr.) to the FSU 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.31

Roderick Daniels Jr. run for no gain to the FSU 14

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 4 yds to the FSU 10

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.37

Kevin Jennings pass incomplete

4th & 6Blocked Field Goal+27 yds

Collin Rogers 27 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.99

DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Malik Benson for 18 yds to the FSU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Lawrance Toafili run for 6 yds to the FSU 44

2nd & 4Rush+12 ydsPPA +1.14

Lawrance Toafili run for 12 yds to the SMU 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +0.73

DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Kyle Morlock for 20 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)+3 ydsPPA -0.14

DJ Uiagalelei run for 3 yds to the SMU 21 DJ Uiagalelei fumbled, recovered by FSU DJ Uiagalelei D. Uiagalelei return for 0 yds

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.78

DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Ja'Khi Douglas for 11 yds to the SMU 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.29

DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.10

Lawrance Toafili run for 6 yds to the SMU 4

3rd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

DJ Uiagalelei run for 2 yds to the SMU 2

4th & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -4.15

DJ Uiagalelei run for no gain to the SMU 2

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.16

Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 2 yds to the SMU 4

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.16

Roderick Daniels Jr. run for no gain to the SMU 4

3rd & 8Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.02

Brashard Smith run for 5 yds to the SMU 9

4th & 3Safety-9 ydsPPA -1.72

TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards for a SAFETY

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.80

DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Lawrance Toafili run for 1 yd to the FSU 29

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+20 yds

Collin Rogers kickoff for 65 yds , Deuce Spann return for 20 yds to the FSU 20

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.29

Lawrance Toafili run for 6 yds to the FSU 26

2nd & 4Pass Interception Return+25 ydsPPA -0.90

DJ Uiagalelei pass intercepted Ahmad Walker return for 25 yds to the FSU 11

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

SMU Penalty, Offensive Holding (Logan Parr) to the FSU 16

1st & 15Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.03

Brashard Smith run for 5 yds to the FSU 11

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.81

Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 11 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+9 yds

Collin Rogers kickoff for 65 yds , Deuce Spann return for 9 yds to the FSU 9

1st & 10Penalty-3 yds

TOAFILI, Lawrance rush to the left for a gain of 3 yards to the FSU12 (SMITH, Isaiah;WALKER, Ahmad). PENALTY FSU Holding on THOMAS, Landen enforced half the distance from the goal, 4 yards from the FSU9 to the FSU5 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 14Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +0.99

DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Lawrance Toafili for 19 yds to the FSU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.43

Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the FSU 26

2nd & 8Penalty-10 yds

Florida State Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jeremiah Byers) to the FSU 19

2nd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.06

DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 54 yds , Jake Bailey returns for no gain to the SMU 27

1st & 10Rush+16 ydsPPA +1.47

Brashard Smith run for 16 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +1.78

Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 33 yds to the FSU 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Kevin Jennings pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 7 yds to the FSU 17 for a 1ST down Florida State Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Conrad Hussey) to the FSU 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Penalty-15 yds

SMU Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the FSU 21

2nd & 21Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.62

Kevin Jennings pass complete to Brashard Smith for 11 yds to the FSU 10

3rd & 10Penalty-5 yds

SMU Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the FSU 15

3rd & 15Passing Touchdown+15 ydsPPA +3.54

Kevin Jennings pass complete to RJ Maryland for 15 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+35 ydsPPA +3.59

DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Darion Williamson for 35 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.84

Lawrance Toafili run for 9 yds to the SMU 31

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.84

DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.38

DJ Uiagalelei run for 1 yd to the SMU 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.20

Lawrance Toafili run for 10 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.37

Lawrance Toafili run for no gain to the SMU 20

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +2.99

DJ Uiagalelei pass complete to Landen Thomas for 20 yds for a TD (Ryan Fitzgerald KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Kevin Jennings pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Brashard Smith run for 1 yd to the SMU 26

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Kevin Jennings pass incomplete

4th & 9Penalty+15 yds

PEARSON, Isaac punt 54 yards to the FSU20, returned by MCCOY, Lawayne. (SMITH, Key'Shawn), clock 03:44. PENALTY FSU Face mask on COOPER, Omarion enforced 15 yards from the SMU26 to the SMU41 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [FAKE PUNT]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Brashard Smith run for 4 yds to the SMU 45

2nd & 6Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.53

Brashard Smith run for 13 yds to the FSU 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +0.59

Brashard Smith run for 17 yds to the FSU 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.65

Kevin Jennings run for 9 yds to the FSU 16

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.48

Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 4 yds to the FSU 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Kevin Jennings run for 3 yds to the FSU 9

2nd & 7Rush+7 ydsPPA +1.41

Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 7 yds to the FSU 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 2 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt+44 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 44 yds , Roderick Daniels Jr. returns for no gain to the SMU 29 , returns for no gain to the SMU 29

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Lawrance Toafili run for 2 yds to the SMU 27

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.64

DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

DJ Uiagalelei pass incomplete

4th & 8Interception Return Touchdown+82 ydsPPA -9.40

DJ Uiagalelei pass intercepted Kobe Wilson return for 82 yds for a TD (Collin Rogers KICK)

1st & 10Penalty+15 yds

SMU Penalty, Personal Foul (Kori Roberson Jr.) to the FSU 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Samuel Singleton Jr. run for no gain to the FSU 43

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Brock Glenn pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.49

Brock Glenn pass incomplete

4th & 10Penalty-5 yds

Florida State Penalty, False Start (Jeremiah Byers) to the FSU 38

4th & 15Punt0 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Roderick Daniels Jr. at the SMU 6

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.52

Brashard Smith run for 8 yds to the SMU 14

2nd & 2Rush+20 ydsPPA +1.04

Brashard Smith run for 20 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.39

Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 6 yds to the SMU 40

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.93

Roderick Daniels Jr. run for 1 yd to the SMU 41

3rd & 3Pass Reception+19 ydsPPA +2.69

Kevin Jennings pass complete to Moochie Dixon for 19 yds to the FSU 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.85

Derrick McFall run for no gain to the FSU 40

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.03

Kevin Jennings run for no gain to the FSU 40

3rd & 10Sack-1 ydsPPA -1.15

Kevin Jennings sacked by Marvin Jones Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the FSU 41

4th & 11Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA -0.79

Kevin Jennings pass complete to Jordan Hudson for 8 yds to the FSU 33

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.60

Samuel Singleton Jr. run for 2 yds to the FSU 35

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.71

Brock Glenn pass incomplete

3rd & 8Penalty-10 yds

GLENN, Brock pass to the right complete for 14 yards to BROWN, Jalen caught at the FSU30 and advanced to the FSU49 (KILGORE, Alexander). PENALTY FSU Holding on BYERS, Jeremiah enforced 10 yards from the FSU35 to the FSU25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 18Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.07

Brock Glenn pass incomplete

4th & 18Punt0 yds

Alex Mastromanno punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Roderick Daniels Jr. at the SMU 25

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.80

Keldric Luster run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 24

2nd & 11Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.64

Keldric Luster run for 11 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-9 ydsPPA -1.90

run for a loss of 9 yards to the SMU 26

2nd & 19Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.58

Derrick McFall run for 17 yds to the SMU 43

3rd & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.05

Derrick McFall run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 42

4th & 3Rush+6 ydsPPA +2.60

Carter Campbell run for 6 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.60

[SG] Kneel down by LUSTER, Keldric at SMU46 (team loss of 2).

2nd & 12Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.10

[SG] Kneel down by LUSTER, Keldric at SMU44 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Florida State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
30%
23 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
0%
1 play
50%
2 plays
44%
16 plays
0%
1 play
3rd
50%
2 plays
0%
2 plays
40%
5 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play
0%
1 play

SMU

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
38%
26 plays
100%
2 plays
2nd
33%
3 plays
25%
4 plays
33%
12 plays
60%
5 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
50%
2 plays
67%
6 plays
100%
3 plays
4th
50%
2 plays
0%
1 play