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← Back to GamesNov 17, 2024Week 12
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Montana State by 3.6

Home Win Probability

UC Davis 39%

Market (ESPN Bet)

UC Davis +7

Edge: UC Davis +7 (3.4 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 17, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Montana State
7167030
UC Davis
8002028

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014288-08-148-208-238-3015-3028-30
UC DavisMontana State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20UDMSUDMSUDMSUDUDMSUDMSMSUDMSUDMSUDMSUDMSUDUDMSPUNT3-12ydPUNT30ydTD1195ydTD583ydTO416ydTD846ydTD410ydTO732ydFG1128ydPUNT3-1ydMISS617ydTD875ydPUNT48ydPUNT424ydPUNT733ydPUNT34ydPUNT623ydPUNT614ydTD981ydPUNT732ydTD389ydTD651ydEND10yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Montana State and UC Davis
StatisticMontana StateUC Davis
Passing18-2523-34
Pass Yards174324
Rush Yards15990
Total Yards333414
Turnovers02
3rd Down6-154-12
Penalties4-293-10
Possession33:1626:44

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Montana State
passing
Tommy Mellott
18/25, 174 YDS, 2 TD
rushing
Julius Davis
13 CAR, 91 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Rohan Jones
3 REC, 58 YDS, 1 TD
UC Davis
passing
Miles Hastings
22/33, 320 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Lan Larison
23 CAR, 112 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Chaz Davis
4 REC, 128 YDS, 1 TD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -1.15

Miles Hastings sacked by Kenneth Eiden IV for a loss of 7 yards to the UCD 18

2nd & 17Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Lan Larison run for 5 yds to the UCD 23

3rd & 12Sack-10 ydsPPA -0.18

Miles Hastings sacked by Neil Daily for a loss of 10 yards to the UCD 13

4th & 22Punt0 yds

Ben Banks-Altekruse punt for 33 yds

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.03

Tommy Mellott run for no gain to the UCD 46

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.07

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Brendan Hall punt for 41 yds, downed at the UCD 5

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Lan Larison run for 3 yds to the UCD 8

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.22

Miles Hastings pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.04

Miles Hastings pass complete to C.J. Hutton for 15 yds to the UCD 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Lan Larison run for 2 yds to the UCD 25

2nd & 8Penalty+13 yds

HASTINGS, Miles pass to the left incomplete intended for TOMPKINS, Trent thrown to the UCD39. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on POWDRELL, Andrew enforced at the spot of the foul for 13 yards to the UCD38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Pass Reception+42 ydsPPA +2.34

Miles Hastings pass complete to Lan Larison for 42 yds to the MTST 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Lan Larison run for 2 yds to the MTST 18

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Miles Hastings pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.72

Miles Hastings pass complete to Trent Tompkins for 8 yds to the MTST 10 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.01

Lan Larison pass complete to Trent Tompkins for 4 yds to the MTST 6

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.07

Lan Larison run for 5 yds to the MTST 1

3rd & 1Passing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +2.45

Miles Hastings pass complete to Ian Simpson for 1 yd for a TD (W. Williams Run For Two-point Conversion)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.31

Scottre Humphrey run for 2 yds to the MTST 19

2nd & 8Rush+24 ydsPPA +2.38

Scottre Humphrey run for 24 yds to the MTST 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Scottre Humphrey run for no gain to the MTST 43

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Adam Jones run for 4 yds to the MTST 47

3rd & 6Passing Touchdown+53 ydsPPA +5.77

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Rohan Jones for 53 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.08

Trent Tompkins run for 9 yds to the UCD 28

2nd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.34

Lan Larison run for 2 yds to the UCD 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Miles Hastings pass complete to Lan Larison for 5 yds to the UCD 35

2nd & 5Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -1.41

Miles Hastings pass intercepted Dru Polidore return for no gain to the UCD 46

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Scottre Humphrey run for 5 yds to the UCD 41

2nd & 5Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.52

Scottre Humphrey run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCD 43

3rd & 7Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Adam Jones for 4 yds to the UCD 39

4th & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +2.16

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Taco Dowler for 4 yds to the UCD 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Rohan Jones for 3 yds to the UCD 32

2nd & 7Penalty-5 yds

Montana State Penalty, False Start (Rylan Ortt) to the UCD 37

2nd & 12Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ryan King for 7 yds to the UCD 30

3rd & 5Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.02

Adam Jones run for 13 yds to the UCD 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +2.58

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 17 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.03

Miles Hastings pass complete to Lan Larison for 12 yds to the UCD 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.40

Miles Hastings pass complete to Lan Larison for a loss of 2 yards to the UCD 35

2nd & 12Rush0 ydsPPA -0.51

Lan Larison run for no gain to the UCD 35

3rd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.25

Miles Hastings pass incomplete

4th & 12Punt+79 yds

Ben Banks-Altekruse punt for 44 yds , Taco Dowler returns for 79 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted PAT BLOCKED)

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.80

Miles Hastings pass complete to Lan Larison for 8 yds to the UCD 28

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.16

Lan Larison run for 5 yds to the UCD 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Miles Hastings pass complete to Chaz Davis for 7 yds to the UCD 40

2nd & 3Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.64

Jordan Fisher run for 7 yds to the UCD 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.91

Miles Hastings pass complete to Trent Tompkins for 1 yd to the UCD 48

2nd & 9Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.40

Jordan Fisher run for 3 yds to the MTST 49

3rd & 6Sack-1 ydsPPA -1.06

Miles Hastings sacked for a loss of 1 yard to the MTST 48 Miles Hastings fumbled, recovered by MTST Neil Daily , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.90

Adam Jones run for 1 yd to the MTST 49

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -1.04

Adam Jones run for no gain to the MTST 49

3rd & 9Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.90

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Lonyatta Alexander Jr. for 14 yds to the UCD 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Rohan Jones for 2 yds to the UCD 35

2nd & 8Rush0 ydsPPA -0.88

Tommy Mellott run for no gain to the UCD 35

3rd & 8Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.47

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Adam Jones for 7 yds to the UCD 28

4th & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +1.13

Scottre Humphrey run for 1 yd to the UCD 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.49

Scottre Humphrey run for no gain to the UCD 27

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Adam Jones run for 4 yds to the UCD 23

3rd & 6Pass Reception-1 ydsPPA -0.91

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Adam Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the UCD 24

4th & 7Field Goal Good+42 yds

Myles Sansted 42 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.20

Miles Hastings sacked by Kenneth Eiden IV for a loss of 9 yards to the UCD 16

2nd & 19Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.11

Lan Larison run for 8 yds to the UCD 24

3rd & 11Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.13

Miles Hastings pass incomplete

4th & 11Punt0 yds

Ben Banks-Altekruse punt for 23 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 6 yds to the UCD 41

2nd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.32

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ryan King for 6 yds to the UCD 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Taco Dowler for 5 yds to the UCD 30

4th & 5Field Goal Missed+47 yds

Myles Sansted 47 yd FG MISSED

0th & 5End of Half-40 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Adam Jones run for 2 yds to the MTST 27

2nd & 8Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.21

Adam Jones run for 3 yds to the MTST 30

3rd & 5Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +2.37

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Lonyatta Alexander Jr. for 14 yds to the MTST 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.96

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 8 yds to the UCD 48

2nd & 2Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.44

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 13 yds to the UCD 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.35

Julius Davis run for 15 yds to the UCD 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.42

Julius Davis run for 13 yds to the UCD 7 for a 1ST down

1st & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.20

Julius Davis run for 7 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK)

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +1.32

Lan Larison run for 15 yds to the UCD 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.32

Lan Larison run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCD 39

2nd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.43

Lan Larison run for 2 yds to the UCD 41

3rd & 9Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.79

Miles Hastings sacked by Zac Crews for a loss of 8 yards to the UCD 33

4th & 17Punt+1 yds

Ben Banks-Altekruse punt for 42 yds , Taco Dowler returns for 1 yd to the MTST 26

1st & 10Rush+18 ydsPPA +1.64

Julius Davis run for 18 yds to the MTST 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Julius Davis run for 5 yds to the MTST 49

2nd & 5Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.96

Adam Jones run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.99

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Brendan Hall punt for 33 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.73

Miles Hastings pass complete to Lan Larison for 8 yds to the UCD 25

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.03

Lan Larison run for 4 yds to the UCD 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Miles Hastings pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.92

Miles Hastings pass complete to Trent Tompkins for 23 yds to the MTST 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Jordan Fisher run for 4 yds to the MTST 44

2nd & 6Sack-10 ydsPPA -2.90

Miles Hastings sacked by McCade O'Reilly for a loss of 10 yards to the UCD 46

3rd & 16Penalty-5 yds

UC Davis Penalty, Delay Of Game (Miles Hastings) to the UCD 41

3rd & 21Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.30

Miles Hastings pass complete to Lan Larison for 9 yds to the 50 yard line

4th & 12Punt+19 yds

Ben Banks-Altekruse punt for 38 yds , Taco Dowler returns for 19 yds to the MTST 31

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Julius Davis run for 5 yds to the MTST 36

2nd & 5Rush0 ydsPPA -0.95

Julius Davis run for no gain to the MTST 36

3rd & 5Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Tommy Mellott run for 4 yds to the MTST 40

4th & 1Penalty-5 yds

Montana State Penalty, False Start (Julius Davis) to the MTST 35

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Brendan Hall punt for 48 yds

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Miles Hastings pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +1.09

Lan Larison run for 10 yds to the UCD 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.18

Miles Hastings pass complete to Trent Tompkins for 13 yds to the UCD 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.12

Miles Hastings pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception0 ydsPPA -0.76

Miles Hastings pass complete to Trent Tompkins for no gain to the UCD 40

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Miles Hastings pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt0 yds

Cade Cox punt for 37 yds, downed at the MTST 23

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Julius Davis run for 2 yds to the MTST 25

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.28

Julius Davis run for 2 yds to the MTST 27

3rd & 6Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.66

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 8 yds to the MTST 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.63

Adam Jones run for 2 yds to the MTST 37

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.77

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.41

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Brendan Hall punt for 44 yds

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.23

Lan Larison run for 3 yds to the UCD 22

2nd & 7Pass Reception+33 ydsPPA +3.19

Miles Hastings pass complete to Chaz Davis for 33 yds to the MTST 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.00

Lan Larison run for no gain to the MTST 45

2nd & 10Rush+34 ydsPPA +1.95

Lan Larison run for 34 yds to the MTST 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Lan Larison run for 4 yds to the MTST 7

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Lan Larison run for 3 yds to the MTST 4

3rd & 3Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.61

Lan Larison run for a loss of 4 yards to the MTST 8

4th & 7Penalty+6 yds

HASTINGS, Miles pass to the left incomplete intended for DAVIS, Chaz thrown to the MSU0. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on POWDRELL, Andrew enforced at the spot of the foul for 6 yards to the MSU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.69

Lan Larison run for 1 yd to the MTST 1

2nd & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +1.90

Lan Larison run for 1 yd for a TD (Hunter Ridley KICK)

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.12

Julius Davis run for 13 yds to the MTST 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Julius Davis run for 3 yds to the MTST 41

2nd & 7Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Julius Davis run for 4 yds to the MTST 45

3rd & 3Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +1.61

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Taco Dowler for 4 yds to the MTST 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Adam Jones run for 4 yds to the UCD 47

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -1.15

Adam Jones run for no gain to the UCD 47

3rd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Julius Davis run for 4 yds to the UCD 43

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Brendan Hall punt for 32 yds

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.60

Lan Larison run for 8 yds to the UCD 19

2nd & 2Pass Reception+77 ydsPPA +4.47

Miles Hastings pass complete to Chaz Davis for 77 yds to the MTST 4 for a 1ST down

1st & 4Passing Touchdown+4 ydsPPA +1.69

Miles Hastings pass complete to Samuel Gbatu Jr. for 4 yds for a TD (Hunter Ridley KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.13

Miles Hastings pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

UC Davis Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass enforced (-5 Yards) to the UCD 44

2nd & 15Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.37

Miles Hastings pass complete to Trent Tompkins for 11 yds to the MTST 45

3rd & 4Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.64

Miles Hastings pass complete to Trent Tompkins for 7 yds to the MTST 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.78

Miles Hastings pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +1.36

Miles Hastings pass complete to Lan Larison for 27 yds to the MTST 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+11 ydsPPA +2.52

Chaz Davis 11 Yd pass from Miles Hastings (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)

0th & 65Penalty0 yds

GENETTI, Angelo onside kickoff 2 yards from the UCD35, no return , clock 00:34. PENALTY UCD Offsides enforced 0 yards from the UCD37 to the UCD37, from the spot of the ball when the foul occurred. NO PLAY (replay the down).

No play data available

Situational Analysis

Montana State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
46%
24 plays
2nd
100%
1 play
20%
5 plays
9%
11 plays
100%
1 play
3rd
100%
1 play
50%
8 plays
50%
6 plays
4th
100%
2 plays

UC Davis

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
100%
1 play
38%
29 plays
2nd
83%
6 plays
25%
4 plays
56%
9 plays
60%
5 plays
3rd
50%
2 plays
50%
2 plays
50%
4 plays
25%
4 plays
4th