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← Back to GamesNov 9, 2024Week 11
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Montana State by 35.1

Home Win Probability

Montana State 97%

Market (ESPN Bet)

Montana State -17.5

Edge: Montana State -17.5 (17.6 pts)

fitted_v1 · Nov 9, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Sacramento StateSacramento State
00707
Montana State
141414749

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842567-014-021-028-035-042-049-7
Montana StateSacramento State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20SSMSSSMSSSMSSSMSSSMSSSMSMSSSMSSSMSSSMSSSMSSSMSPUNT733ydTD389ydMISS941ydTD466ydPUNT33ydTO644ydPUNT35ydTD885ydPUNT3-6ydTD978ydTO1164ydEND1-1ydTD375ydPUNT4-1ydTD571ydTD475ydPUNT35ydPUNT30ydTD1462ydPUNT616ydPUNT616ydDOWNS1030ydEND2-3yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Sacramento State and Montana State
StatisticSacramento StateMontana State
Passing13-308-13
Pass Yards13696
Rush Yards119508
Total Yards255604
Turnovers11
3rd Down6-168-11
Penalties2-106-50
Possession26:3533:25

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Sacramento State
passing
Carson Conklin
12/27, 138 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Curron Borders
5 CAR, 57 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Danny Scudero
7 REC, 70 YDS
Montana State
passing
Tommy Mellott
7/10, 89 YDS
rushing
Adam Jones
5 CAR, 159 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Ty McCullouch
1 REC, 32 YDS

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.61

Carson Conklin pass complete to Anderson Grover for 18 yds to the SAC 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.56

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAC 41

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Carson Conklin pass incomplete

3rd & 12Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +3.31

Carson Conklin pass complete to Danny Scudero for 15 yds to the MTST 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.53

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 2 yds to the MTST 42

2nd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.06

Carson Conklin pass incomplete

3rd & 8Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.00

Carson Conklin pass incomplete

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Cal McGough punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Taco Dowler at the MTST 11

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.85

Scottre Humphrey run for 9 yds to the MTST 20

2nd & 1Rush+16 ydsPPA +0.76

Scottre Humphrey run for 16 yds to the MTST 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+64 ydsPPA +5.15

Ty McCullouch run for 64 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Carson Conklin pass complete to Danny Scudero for 5 yds to the SAC 30

2nd & 5Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +2.37

Carson Conklin pass complete to Anderson Grover for 23 yds to the MTST 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.35

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 3 yds to the MTST 44

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.38

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 3 yds to the MTST 41

3rd & 4Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.41

Carson Conklin pass complete to Anderson Grover for 7 yds to the MTST 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.66

Carson Conklin pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.89

Carson Conklin run for no gain to the MTST 34

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.02

Carson Conklin pass incomplete

4th & 10Field Goal Missed+52 yds

Zach Schreiner 52 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.03

Scottre Humphrey run for 8 yds to the MTST 42

2nd & 2Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.76

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Taco Dowler for 12 yds to the SAC 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+32 ydsPPA +1.00

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 32 yds to the SAC 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +2.55

Tommy Mellott run for 14 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for no gain to the SAC 25

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.15

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 3 yds to the SAC 28

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Carson Conklin pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Cal McGough punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Taco Dowler at the MTST 25

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Scottre Humphrey run for 3 yds to the MTST 28

2nd & 7Fumble Recovery (Own)-3 ydsPPA -0.75

Scottre Humphrey run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTST 25 Scottre Humphrey fumbled, recovered by MTST Titan Fleischmann T. Fleischmann return for 0 yds

3rd & 10Rush+19 ydsPPA +2.76

Tommy Mellott run for 19 yds to the MTST 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Lonyatta Alexander Jr. for 5 yds to the MTST 49

2nd & 5Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.07

Julius Davis run for 11 yds to the SAC 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)+9 ydsPPA -3.81

Adam Jones run for 9 yds to the SAC 31 Adam Jones fumbled, recovered by SAC Anta'Veon McKenzie A. McKenzie return for 0 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Carson Conklin run for 4 yds to the SAC 35

2nd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.70

Curron Borders run for 1 yd to the SAC 36

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.51

Carson Conklin pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Cal McGough punt for 49 yds , Taco Dowler returns for no gain to the MTST 15

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.61

Julius Davis run for 11 yds to the MTST 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Julius Davis run for 2 yds to the MTST 28

2nd & 8Penalty-5 yds

MELLOTT, Tommy pass up the middle complete for 22 yards to JONES, Adam caught at the MSU40 and advanced to the SAC50 (TI'A, Malini). PENALTY MSU Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass enforced 5 yards from the MSU28 to the MSU23 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 13Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.77

Adam Jones run for 11 yds to the MTST 34

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +1.28

Adam Jones run for 4 yds to the MTST 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.09

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.03

Scottre Humphrey run for 9 yds to the MTST 47

3rd & 1Rush+48 ydsPPA +3.13

Scottre Humphrey run for 48 yds to the SAC 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +1.88

Julius Davis run for 5 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK)

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

Sacramento State Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass enforced (-5 Yards) to the SAC 20

1st & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.33

Carson Conklin pass incomplete

2nd & 15Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.03

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 4 yds to the SAC 24

3rd & 11Sack-5 ydsPPA -0.19

Carson Conklin sacked by Kenneth Eiden IV for a loss of 5 yards to the SAC 19

4th & 16Punt-3 yds

Cal McGough punt for 56 yds , Taco Dowler returns for a loss of 3 yards to the MTST 22

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.17

Scottre Humphrey run for 9 yds to the MTST 31

2nd & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.34

Scottre Humphrey run for 9 yds to the MTST 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.21

Scottre Humphrey run for 14 yds to the SAC 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-6 yds

Montana State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Tommy Mellott) to the MTST 48

2nd & 16Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.25

Julius Davis run for 6 yds to the SAC 46

3rd & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.50

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Lonyatta Alexander Jr. for 7 yds to the SAC 39

4th & 3Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.41

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Rohan Jones for 13 yds to the SAC 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +0.18

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ryan Lonergan for 13 yds to the SAC 13 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.54

Tommy Mellott run for 13 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 9 yds to the SAC 34

2nd & 1Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.03

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 5 yds to the SAC 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Carson Conklin pass complete to Danny Scudero for 6 yds to the SAC 45

2nd & 4Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.99

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 1 yd to the SAC 46

3rd & 3Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.90

Carson Conklin pass complete to Danny Scudero for 8 yds to the MTST 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +0.73

Carson Conklin pass complete to Danny Scudero for 16 yds to the MTST 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Carson Conklin pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.81

Carson Conklin pass complete to Anderson Grover for 15 yds to the MTST 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.32

Carson Conklin pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.38

Carson Conklin pass complete to Danny Scudero for 9 yds to the MTST 6

3rd & 1Penalty-5 yds

TAU-TOLLIVER, Elijah rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the MSU4 (EIDEN IV, Kenneth). PENALTY Before the snap, SAC Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the MSU6 to the MSU11. NO PLAY (replay the down).

3rd & 6Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -4.09

Carson Conklin pass intercepted, touchback. Jon Johnson return for no gain

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.63

[NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at MSU19 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush-6 ydsPPA -1.11

Scottre Humphrey run for 4 yds to the MTST 29 Montana State Penalty, Offensive Holding (TEAM) to the MTST 19

2nd & 16Rush+78 ydsPPA +5.72

Adam Jones run for 78 yds to the SAC 3 for a 1ST down

1st & 3Rushing Touchdown+3 ydsPPA +1.46

Scottre Humphrey run for 3 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.93

Carson Conklin pass complete to Danny Scudero for 11 yds to the SAC 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 3 yds to the SAC 39

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Carson Conklin pass incomplete

3rd & 7Sack-15 ydsPPA -0.92

Carson Conklin sacked by Simeon Woodard for a loss of 15 yards to the SAC 24

4th & 22Punt+7 yds

Cal McGough punt for 39 yds , Taco Dowler returns for 7 yds to the MTST 29

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.37

Julius Davis run for 7 yds to the MTST 36

3rd & 3Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.77

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Taco Dowler for 7 yds to the MTST 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rushing Touchdown+57 ydsPPA +5.62

Adam Jones run for 57 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK)

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 8 yds to the SAC 33

2nd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.12

Elijah Tau-Tolliver run for 4 yds to the SAC 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Carson Conklin pass complete to Jared Gipson for 5 yds to the SAC 42

2nd & 5Penalty+15 yds

Montana State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the MTST 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+43 ydsPPA +3.35

Curron Borders run for 43 yds for a TD (Zach Schreiner KICK)

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Jacob Trimble run for 4 yds to the MTST 29

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Julius Davis run for 4 yds to the MTST 33

3rd & 2Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.81

Julius Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTST 30

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Brendan Hall punt for 57 yds , Anderson Grover returns for no gain to the SAC 13

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.40

Carson Conklin pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.18

Carson Conklin pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.08

Carson Conklin pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt-2 yds

Cal McGough punt for 47 yds , Taco Dowler returns for a loss of 2 yards to the MTST 38

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Colson Coon run for 2 yds to the MTST 40

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.34

Colson Coon run for 6 yds to the MTST 46

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.36

Chance Wilson run for 3 yds to the MTST 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Chance Wilson pass complete to Hunter Provience for 7 yds to the SAC 44

2nd & 3Rush+3 ydsPPA +0.08

Julius Davis run for 3 yds to the SAC 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Julius Davis run for 5 yds to the SAC 36

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.90

Chance Wilson pass incomplete

3rd & 5Rush+13 ydsPPA +1.39

Chance Wilson run for 13 yds to the SAC 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.64

Julius Davis run for 9 yds to the SAC 14

2nd & 1Penalty-5 yds

Montana State Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the SAC 19

2nd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.17

Julius Davis run for 7 yds to the SAC 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.10

Chance Wilson run for 3 yds to the SAC 9

2nd & 7Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.09

Julius Davis run for 3 yds to the SAC 6

3rd & 4Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.78

Julius Davis run for 5 yds to the SAC 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rushing Touchdown+1 ydsPPA +0.94

Julius Davis run for 1 yd for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Curron Borders run for 7 yds to the SAC 32

2nd & 3Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.26

Luke Baker pass complete to Devin Gandy for a loss of 2 yards to the SAC 30

3rd & 5Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.49

Luke Baker run for 5 yds to the SAC 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.40

Curron Borders run for 6 yds to the SAC 41

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -1.16

Curron Borders run for no gain to the SAC 41

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.72

Luke Baker pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt0 yds

Cal McGough punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Taco Dowler at the MTST 15

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Colson Coon run for 4 yds to the MTST 19

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Colson Coon run for 4 yds to the MTST 23

3rd & 2Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.81

Colson Coon run for 4 yds to the MTST 27 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Jared White run for 3 yds to the MTST 30

2nd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.52

Chance Wilson run for 1 yd to the MTST 31

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Chance Wilson pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt+7 yds

Brendan Hall punt for 44 yds , Anderson Grover returns for 7 yds to the SAC 32

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Ardwon Morris run for 4 yds to the SAC 36

2nd & 6Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Ardwon Morris run for 4 yds to the SAC 40

3rd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +1.53

Ardwon Morris run for 5 yds to the SAC 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Ardwon Morris run for 4 yds to the SAC 49

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Ardwon Morris run for 5 yds to the MTST 46

3rd & 1Rush+1 ydsPPA +0.85

Ardwon Morris run for 1 yd to the MTST 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.30

Ajon Bryant run for 6 yds to the MTST 39

2nd & 4Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.55

Ajon Bryant run for 2 yds to the MTST 37

3rd & 2Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.32

Jordan Barton run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTST 38

4th & 3Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.97

Jordan Barton pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.43

[NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at MSU36 (team loss of 2).

2nd & 12Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.61

[NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at MSU35 (team loss of 1), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Sacramento State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
50%
24 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
33%
3 plays
29%
7 plays
25%
8 plays
0%
2 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
40%
5 plays
0%
5 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play

Montana State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
2 plays
100%
1 play
50%
28 plays
2nd
100%
4 plays
40%
5 plays
57%
7 plays
75%
4 plays
3rd
83%
6 plays
67%
3 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play