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← Back to GamesOct 12, 2024Week 7
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

UC Davis by 23

Home Win Probability

UC Davis 90%

Market (ESPN Bet)

UC Davis -17

Edge: UC Davis -17 (6.0 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 12, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Cal Poly
370010
UC Davis
28147756

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842567-014-321-335-342-1049-1056-10
UC DavisCal Poly

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20CPUDCPUDCPCPUDCPUDCPUDCPUDUDCPUDCPUDCPUDCPUDCPPUNT644ydTD494ydFG753ydTD1065ydTD29ydPUNT33ydTD362ydPUNT37ydTD1185ydTD385ydTD875ydDOWNS1584ydEND10ydTD375ydPUNT35ydTO347ydPUNT38ydTO1259ydDOWNS1126ydTD660ydPUNT1045ydPUNT632ydEND532yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Cal Poly and UC Davis
StatisticCal PolyUC Davis
Passing20-3631-36
Pass Yards269500
Rush Yards112171
Total Yards381671
Turnovers12
3rd Down5-178-9
Penalties4-276-53
Possession30:1129:49

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Cal Poly
passing
Bo Kelly
12/21, 135 YDS, 1 INT
rushing
Zion Hall
12 CAR, 62 YDS
receiving
Michael Briscoe
4 REC, 103 YDS
UC Davis
passing
Miles Hastings
27/30, 458 YDS, 4 TD
rushing
Lan Larison
13 CAR, 76 YDS, 2 TD
receiving
Chaz Davis
4 REC, 102 YDS, 1 TD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.38

Bo Kelly pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+28 ydsPPA +2.36

Aiden Ramos run for 28 yds to the CP 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.07

Bo Kelly pass complete to Logan Booher for 12 yds to the UCD 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Bo Kelly pass complete to Giancarlo Woods for 4 yds to the UCD 44

2nd & 6Rush0 ydsPPA -1.11

Aiden Ramos run for no gain to the UCD 44

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.03

Bo Kelly pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Ryan Collins punt for 38 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Lan Larison run for 4 yds to the UCD 10

2nd & 6Pass Reception+73 ydsPPA +4.35

Miles Hastings pass complete to Chaz Davis for 73 yds to the CP 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Lan Larison run for 3 yds to the CP 14

2nd & 7Passing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +2.69

Miles Hastings pass complete to Chaz Davis for 14 yds for a TD (Hunter Ridley KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Bo Kelly pass complete to Kian Salehi for 5 yds to the CP 30

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.75

Bo Kelly pass incomplete

3rd & 5Pass Reception+42 ydsPPA +3.97

Bo Kelly pass complete to Giancarlo Woods for 42 yds to the UCD 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.78

Aiden Ramos run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCD 30

2nd & 12Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.19

Richie Watts pass complete to Kian Salehi for 6 yds to the UCD 24

3rd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.40

Richie Watts run for 2 yds to the UCD 22

4th & 4Field Goal Good+40 yds

Noah Serna 40 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Miles Hastings pass complete to Trent Tompkins for 8 yds to the UCD 43

2nd & 2Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.28

Miles Hastings pass complete to Trent Tompkins for 6 yds to the UCD 49 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.86

Lan Larison run for 8 yds to the CP 43

2nd & 2Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +0.22

Miles Hastings pass complete to Lan Larison for 12 yds to the CP 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.58

Miles Hastings pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.83

Matteo Perez run for 13 yds to the CP 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Miles Hastings pass complete to Stacy Dobbins for 4 yds to the CP 14

2nd & 6Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.73

Lan Larison run for 9 yds to the CP 5 for a 1ST down

1st & 5Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.18

Lan Larison pass complete to Stacy Dobbins for 3 yds to the CP 2

2nd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.07

Lan Larison run for 2 yds for a TD (Hunter Ridley KICK)

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Zion Hall run for 9 yds to the CP 34

2nd & 1Interception Return Touchdown+35 ydsPPA -9.17

Bo Kelly pass intercepted Rex Connors return for 35 yds for a TD Cal Poly Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the CP 1 (Hunter Ridley KICK)

0th & 3Penalty+2 yds

Cal Poly Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the CP 1

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Zion Hall run for 3 yds to the CP 28

2nd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.56

Bo Kelly pass incomplete

3rd & 7Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.27

Bo Kelly pass incomplete

4th & 7Punt0 yds

Ryan Collins punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Matteo Perez at the UCD 38

1st & 10Pass Reception+18 ydsPPA +1.54

Miles Hastings pass complete to Trent Tompkins for 18 yds to the CP 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.97

Lan Larison run for no gain to the CP 44

2nd & 10Passing Touchdown+44 ydsPPA +4.38

Miles Hastings pass complete to Samuel Gbatu Jr. for 44 yds for a TD (Hunter Ridley KICK)

1st & 10Rush-3 ydsPPA -0.96

Aiden Ramos run for a loss of 3 yards to the CP 22

2nd & 13Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Zion Hall run for 4 yds to the CP 26

3rd & 9Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.09

Bo Kelly pass complete to Michael Briscoe for 6 yds to the CP 32

4th & 3Punt0 yds

Ryan Collins punt for 53 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.96

Miles Hastings pass complete to Trent Tompkins for 9 yds to the UCD 24

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.96

Lan Larison run for no gain to the UCD 24

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.61

Matteo Perez run for 2 yds to the UCD 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.73

Lan Larison run for no gain to the UCD 26

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.07

Matteo Perez run for 4 yds to the UCD 30

3rd & 6Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.05

Miles Hastings pass complete to Stacy Dobbins for 10 yds to the UCD 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Matteo Perez run for 7 yds to the UCD 47

2nd & 3Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +1.35

Miles Hastings pass complete to Stacy Dobbins for 28 yds to the CP 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Miles Hastings pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Miles Hastings pass complete to Lan Larison for 2 yds to the CP 23

3rd & 8Passing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +3.47

Miles Hastings pass complete to Lan Larison for 23 yds for a TD (Hunter Ridley KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+52 ydsPPA +3.72

Richie Watts pass complete to Michael Briscoe for 52 yds to the UCD 33 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+31 ydsPPA +1.69

Richie Watts pass complete to Michael Briscoe for 31 yds to the UCD 2 for a 1ST down

1st & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +1.21

Richie Watts run for 2 yds for a TD (Noah Serna KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Miles Hastings pass complete to Winston Williams for 5 yds to the UCD 30

2nd & 5Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.84

Matteo Perez run for 6 yds to the UCD 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.71

Miles Hastings pass complete to Trent Tompkins for 7 yds to the UCD 43

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.34

Matteo Perez run for 4 yds to the UCD 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Matteo Perez run for 2 yds to the UCD 49

2nd & 8Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Lan Larison run for 4 yds to the CP 47

3rd & 4Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.69

Miles Hastings pass complete to Trent Tompkins for 6 yds to the CP 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+41 ydsPPA +3.24

Lan Larison run for 41 yds for a TD (Hunter Ridley KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.28

Richie Watts pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.71

Zion Hall run for 13 yds to the CP 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Richie Watts run for 5 yds to the CP 23

2nd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.55

Richie Watts pass incomplete

3rd & 5Penalty+15 yds

WATTS, Richie pass deep to the left incomplete intended for WOODS, Giancarlo thrown to the UCD40. PENALTY UCD Pass Interference on GARDNER, Wyatt enforced 15 yards to the CPU38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Zion Hall run for 2 yds to the CP 40

2nd & 8Pass Reception-2 ydsPPA -1.12

Richie Watts pass complete to Aiden Ramos for a loss of 2 yards to the CP 38

3rd & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +3.80

Richie Watts pass complete to Kian Salehi for 28 yds to the UCD 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Richie Watts pass complete to Jordan Garrison for 6 yds to the UCD 28

2nd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Richie Watts pass incomplete

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.84

Richie Watts pass incomplete

4th & 4Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.61

Richie Watts pass complete to Giancarlo Woods for 8 yds to the UCD 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.21

Richie Watts run for 2 yds to the UCD 18

2nd & 8Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.15

Richie Watts run for 6 yds to the UCD 12

1st & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.12

Richie Watts pass incomplete

2nd & 16Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.36

Zion Hall run for 13 yds to the CP 18

3rd & 2Rush0 ydsPPA -0.42

Zion Hall run for no gain to the UCD 12

4th & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -3.90

Richie Watts run for 1 yd to the UCD 11

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.37

[NHSG] Kneel down by HASTINGS, Miles at UCD11 (team loss of 0), clock 00:00.

0th & 10End of Half0 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Reception+39 ydsPPA +3.07

Miles Hastings pass complete to Lan Larison for 39 yds to the CP 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +0.31

Miles Hastings pass complete to Chaz Davis for 11 yds to the CP 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+25 ydsPPA +2.70

Miles Hastings pass complete to Trent Tompkins for 25 yds for a TD (Hunter Ridley KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.67

Richie Watts pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.04

Richie Watts run for 5 yds to the CP 29

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.35

Richie Watts pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt+3 yds

Ryan Collins punt for 60 yds , Matteo Perez returns for 3 yds to the UCD 14

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.24

Lan Larison run for 6 yds to the UCD 20

2nd & 4Pass Reception+41 ydsPPA +3.28

Miles Hastings pass complete to Stacy Dobbins for 41 yds to the CP 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Interception Return+5 ydsPPA -3.86

Lan Larison pass intercepted Thomas Bouda return for 5 yds to the CP 44

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.16

Richie Watts pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Zion Hall run for 3 yds to the CP 47

3rd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.06

Richie Watts pass complete to Jake Woods for 5 yds to the UCD 48

4th & 2Punt-3 yds

Ryan Collins punt for 38 yds , Matteo Perez returns for a loss of 3 yards to the UCD 7

1st & 10Penalty-9 yds

HASTINGS, Miles pass short to the left complete for 9 yards to HUTTON, C.J. caught at the UCD12 and advanced to the UCD16 (RAPOLLA, Kai). PENALTY UCD Chop Block on POROTESANO, David enforced half the distance from the goal, 3 yards from the UCD7 to the UCD4 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 13Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Miles Hastings pass complete to Trent Tompkins for 4 yds to the UCD 8

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Miles Hastings pass incomplete

3rd & 9Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.02

Miles Hastings pass complete to Lan Larison for 14 yds to the UCD 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.10

Miles Hastings pass complete to Chaz Davis for 4 yds to the UCD 26

2nd & 6Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Lan Larison run for 5 yds to the UCD 31

3rd & 1Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +1.14

Miles Hastings pass complete to Winston Williams for 5 yds to the UCD 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +1.04

Miles Hastings pass complete to C.J. Hutton for 8 yds to the UCD 44

2nd & 2Penalty-10 yds

HASTINGS, Miles pass to the right incomplete intended for TOMPKINS, Trent thrown to the CPU46. PENALTY UCD Holding on MAIN, David enforced 10 yards from the UCD44 to the UCD34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 12Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.09

Matteo Perez run for 4 yds to the UCD 38

3rd & 8Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +2.59

Miles Hastings pass complete to Mitchell Dixon for 10 yds to the UCD 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +1.33

Miles Hastings pass complete to C.J. Hutton for 28 yds to the CP 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.91

Samuel Gbatu Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the CP 28

2nd & 14Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-6 ydsPPA -3.41

Lan Larison run for a loss of 6 yards to the CP 34 Lan Larison fumbled, recovered by CP Elijah Ponder E. Ponder return for 0 yds

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.33

Bo Kelly pass complete to Michael Briscoe for 14 yds to the CP 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-4 ydsPPA -2.00

Logan Booher run for a loss of 4 yards to the CP 44

2nd & 14Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.43

Bo Kelly pass complete to Jake Woods for 11 yds to the UCD 45

3rd & 3Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +1.43

Bo Kelly pass complete to Jake Woods for 6 yds to the UCD 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.81

Bo Kelly pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.57

Aiden Ramos run for 2 yds to the UCD 37

3rd & 8Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Bo Kelly pass complete to Logan Booher for 2 yds to the UCD 35

4th & 6Penalty+10 yds

KELLY, Bo pass short to the right incomplete intended for BRISCOE, Michael broken up by ALEXANDER, Markeece at the UCD30. PENALTY UCD Holding on ALEXANDER, Markeece enforced 10 yards from the UCD35 to the UCD25 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.45

Bo Kelly run for no gain to the UCD 25

2nd & 10Sack-8 ydsPPA -2.17

Bo Kelly sacked by Sam Goligoski for a loss of 8 yards to the UCD 33

3rd & 18Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.56

Richie Watts run for 2 yds to the UCD 31

4th & 16Sack-9 ydsPPA -1.12

Richie Watts sacked by Sam Goligoski for a loss of 9 yards to the UCD 40

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.17

Jordan Fisher run for 4 yds to the UCD 44

2nd & 6Penalty-10 yds

FISHER, Jordan rush to the left for a gain of 5 yards to the UCD49 (JONES, Je'Kob). PENALTY UCD Holding enforced 10 yards from the UCD44 to the UCD34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

2nd & 16Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +1.43

Grant Harper pass complete to Julian Alessi for 13 yds to the UCD 47

3rd & 3Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.48

Grant Harper pass complete to Julian Alessi for 21 yds to the CP 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+20 ydsPPA +0.34

Jordan Fisher run for 20 yds to the CP 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.36

Jordan Fisher run for a loss of 1 yard to the CP 13

2nd & 11Penalty+11 yds

HARPER, Grant pass to the left incomplete intended for GBATU, JR., Samuel thrown to the CPU0. PENALTY CPU Pass Interference on MOORE, Calvin enforced 11 yards to the CPU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 2Penalty-5 yds

UC Davis Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the CP 7

1st & 7Rushing Touchdown+7 ydsPPA +2.20

Jordan Fisher run for 7 yds for a TD Timeout UC Davis, clock 11:31 (Hunter Ridley KICK)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.37

Aiden Ramos run for no gain to the CP 11

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Bo Kelly pass incomplete

3rd & 10Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.02

Bo Kelly pass complete to Logan Booher for 11 yds to the CP 22 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.42

Aiden Ramos run for 17 yds to the CP 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.30

Aiden Ramos run for a loss of 1 yard to the CP 38

2nd & 11Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.96

Bo Kelly pass complete to Aiden Ramos for 9 yds to the CP 47

3rd & 2Pass Reception+13 ydsPPA +2.00

Bo Kelly pass complete to Brooks Wheatley for 13 yds to the UCD 40 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.85

Bo Kelly pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -1.46

Zion Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCD 42

3rd & 12Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.36

Bo Kelly run for 3 yds to the UCD 39

4th & 9Penalty-5 yds

Cal Poly Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the UCD 44

4th & 14Punt0 yds

Ryan Collins punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Matteo Perez at the UCD 11

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.60

Grant Harper run for 8 yds to the UCD 19

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Jordan Fisher run for 5 yds to the UCD 24 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.90

Grant Harper run for 11 yds to the UCD 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.41

Jordan Fisher run for 3 yds to the UCD 38

2nd & 7Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.09

Grant Harper pass complete to Stacy Dobbins for 5 yds to the UCD 43

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Grant Harper pass incomplete

4th & 2Punt0 yds

Ben Banks-Altekruse punt for 47 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.05

Zion Hall run for 4 yds to the CP 14

2nd & 6Rush+23 ydsPPA +1.79

Zion Hall run for 23 yds to the CP 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Zion Hall run for 4 yds to the CP 41

2nd & 6Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.19

Zion Hall run for a loss of 1 yard to the CP 40

3rd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.35

Aiden Ramos run for 2 yds to the CP 42

Situational Analysis

Cal Poly

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
33%
27 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
0%
1 play
17%
6 plays
36%
11 plays
80%
5 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
20%
5 plays
57%
7 plays
0%
2 plays
4th
0%
1 play
100%
1 play
0%
1 play

UC Davis

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
55%
33 plays
0%
1 play
2nd
86%
7 plays
100%
5 plays
50%
8 plays
33%
3 plays
3rd
75%
4 plays
100%
2 plays
100%
3 plays
4th