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← Back to GamesOct 5, 2024Week 6
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Montana State by 48.3

Home Win Probability

Montana State 99%

Market (ESPN Bet)

Montana State -37.5

Edge: Montana State -37.5 (10.8 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 5, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Northern Colorado
0014317
Montana State
131421755

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q40142842566-013-027-034-034-748-1455-17
Montana StateNorthern Colorado

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20NCMSNCMSNCMSNCMSNCMSNCMSNCMSNCMSNCNCMSNCMSNCMSNCMSNCMSPUNT33ydTD563ydPUNT30ydTD951ydPUNT517ydPUNT61ydPUNT34ydTD237ydTO34ydTD535ydTO631ydPUNT34ydUncategorized1065ydPUNT36ydPUNT416ydTD561ydPUNT36ydTD458ydTD275ydTD675ydTD375ydPUNT3-6ydPUNT3-5ydFG529ydTD1775ydTO1175ydEND13yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Northern Colorado and Montana State
StatisticNorthern ColoradoMontana State
Passing18-3011-16
Pass Yards261278
Rush Yards101232
Total Yards362510
Turnovers31
3rd Down4-145-12
Penalties1-56-57
Possession25:2034:40

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Northern Colorado
passing
Kia'i Keone
17/29, 247 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
rushing
Caden Meis
10 CAR, 35 YDS
receiving
Brayden Munroe
5 REC, 84 YDS, 1 TD
Montana State
passing
Tommy Mellott
8/12, 225 YDS, 4 TD
rushing
Scottre Humphrey
10 CAR, 81 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Taco Dowler
2 REC, 106 YDS, 2 TD

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Darius Stewart run for 4 yds to the UNCO 29

2nd & 6Pass Reception-6 ydsPPA -1.02

Kia'i Keone pass complete to Ryder MacGillivray for a loss of 6 yards to the UNCO 23

3rd & 12Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.01

Kia'i Keone pass complete to Charles Garrison for 5 yds to the UNCO 28

4th & 7Punt+5 yds

Hunter Green punt for 40 yds , Taco Dowler returns for 5 yds to the MTST 37

1st & 10Rush+43 ydsPPA +2.43

Scottre Humphrey run for 43 yds to the UNCO 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

JONES, Adam rush up the middle for a gain of 8 yards to the UNC12 (CHAPA, Cam). PENALTY MSU Holding enforced 10 yards from the UNC20 to the UNC30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.57

Tommy Mellott run for 1 yd to the UNCO 29

2nd & 19Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +1.33

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ryan Lonergan for 16 yds to the UNCO 13

3rd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.34

Adam Jones run for 4 yds to the UNCO 9 for a 1ST down

1st & 9Passing Touchdown+9 ydsPPA +2.42

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ryan Lonergan for 9 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted PAT MISSED)

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.70

Darius Stewart run for no gain to the UNCO 25

2nd & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.35

Darius Stewart run for no gain to the UNCO 25

3rd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.16

Kia'i Keone pass incomplete

4th & 10Punt+16 yds

Hunter Green punt for 42 yds , Taco Dowler returns for 16 yds to the MTST 49

1st & 10Rush+13 ydsPPA +0.83

Ty McCullouch run for 13 yds to the UNCO 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -0.98

Taco Dowler run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNCO 39

2nd & 11Pass Reception+11 ydsPPA +1.31

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 11 yds to the UNCO 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.27

Adam Jones run for 2 yds to the UNCO 26

2nd & 8Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.46

Tommy Mellott run for 9 yds to the UNCO 17 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.34

Scottre Humphrey run for no gain to the UNCO 17

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Scottre Humphrey run for 4 yds to the UNCO 13

3rd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.91

Tommy Mellott run for 7 yds to the UNCO 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Passing Touchdown+6 ydsPPA +2.05

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Rohan Jones for 6 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK)

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.60

Darius Stewart run for 7 yds to the UNCO 32

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.33

Jacquez Robertson run for 4 yds to the UNCO 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.04

Kia'i Keone pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.63

Kia'i Keone pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.14

Kia'i Keone run for 6 yds to the UNCO 42

4th & 4Punt+36 yds

Hunter Green punt for 46 yds , Taco Dowler returns for 36 yds to the MTST 48

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.14

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Scottre Humphrey run for 4 yds to the UNCO 48

3rd & 6Rush+7 ydsPPA +2.07

Tommy Mellott run for 7 yds to the UNCO 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Penalty-10 yds

HUMPHREY, Scottre rush to the right for a gain of 11 yards to the UNC30 (CHAPA, Cam). PENALTY MSU Holding enforced 10 yards from the UNC41 to the MSU49 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).

1st & 20Rush-3 ydsPPA -1.35

Ryan King run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTST 46

2nd & 23Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.28

Adam Jones run for 2 yds to the MTST 48

3rd & 21Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.24

Adam Jones run for 1 yd to the MTST 49

4th & 20Punt0 yds

Brendan Hall punt for 49 yds, downed at the UNCO 2

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.25

Caden Meis run for no gain to the UNCO 2

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.04

Kia'i Keone run for 3 yds to the UNCO 5

3rd & 7Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.07

Caden Meis run for 1 yd to the UNCO 6

4th & 6Punt+15 yds

Hunter Green punt for 46 yds , Taco Dowler returns for 15 yds to the UNCO 37

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.24

Adam Jones run for 3 yds to the UNCO 34

2nd & 7Passing Touchdown+34 ydsPPA +3.29

Ty McCullouch pass complete to Taco Dowler for 34 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK)

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Kia'i Keone pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.06

Darius Stewart run for 4 yds to the UNCO 29

3rd & 6Pass Interception Return0 ydsPPA -0.16

Kia'i Keone pass intercepted Danny Uluilakepa return for no gain to the UNCO 35

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.08

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Lonyatta Alexander Jr. for 5 yds to the UNCO 30

2nd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Adam Jones run for 3 yds to the UNCO 27

3rd & 2Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.56

Adam Jones run for 12 yds to the UNCO 15 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

Scottre Humphrey run for 2 yds to the UNCO 13

2nd & 8Rushing Touchdown+13 ydsPPA +2.74

Tommy Mellott run for 13 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Darius Stewart run for 1 yd to the UNCO 26

2nd & 9Pass Reception+21 ydsPPA +2.57

Kia'i Keone pass complete to Brayden Munroe for 21 yds to the UNCO 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+10 ydsPPA +0.74

Caden Meis run for 10 yds to the MTST 43 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.69

Caden Meis run for 8 yds to the MTST 35

2nd & 2Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.15

Caden Meis run for 5 yds to the MTST 30 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Opponent)-14 ydsPPA -4.19

TEAM run for a loss of 14 yards to the MTST 44 fumbled, recovered by MTST Zac Crews Z. Crews return for 0 yds

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.16

Adam Jones run for 4 yds to the MTST 48

2nd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

3rd & 6Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.83

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

4th & 6Punt0 yds

Brendan Hall punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Brayden Munroe at the UNCO 10

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Caden Meis run for 2 yds to the UNCO 12

2nd & 8Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.14

Jacquez Robertson run for 2 yds to the UNCO 14

3rd & 6Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.78

Kia'i Keone run for 6 yds to the UNCO 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.80

Kia'i Keone run for 8 yds to the UNCO 28

2nd & 2Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA +0.07

Kia'i Keone pass complete to Cash Cheeks for 4 yds to the UNCO 32 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+27 ydsPPA +2.28

Kia'i Keone pass complete to Cash Cheeks for 27 yds to the MTST 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-7 ydsPPA -2.40

Kia'i Keone sacked by McCade O'Reilly for a loss of 7 yards to the MTST 48

2nd & 17Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.48

Kia'i Keone run for 7 yds to the MTST 41

3rd & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.46

Kia'i Keone pass complete to Cash Cheeks for 16 yds to the MTST 25 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.45

Kia'i Keone pass incomplete

2nd & 10Penalty-5 yds

Northern Colorado Penalty, Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass enforced (-5 Yards) to the MTST 30

0th & 10End of Half-5 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Scottre Humphrey run for 4 yds to the MTST 29

2nd & 6Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.42

Scottre Humphrey run for 2 yds to the MTST 31

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Tommy Mellott pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt+7 yds

Brendan Hall punt for 64 yds , Brayden Munroe returns for 7 yds to the UNCO 12

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.41

Caden Meis run for 7 yds to the UNCO 19

2nd & 3Penalty+15 yds

Montana State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Alec Eckert) to the UNCO 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.70

Caden Meis run for 7 yds to the UNCO 41

2nd & 3Rush-5 ydsPPA -2.06

Caden Meis run for a loss of 5 yards to the UNCO 36

3rd & 8Sack-8 ydsPPA -0.63

Kia'i Keone sacked by Brody Grebe for a loss of 8 yards to the UNCO 28

4th & 16Punt+9 yds

Hunter Green punt for 42 yds , Taco Dowler returns for 9 yds to the MTST 39

1st & 10Rush+5 ydsPPA +0.11

Adam Jones run for 5 yds to the MTST 44

2nd & 5Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.70

Adam Jones run for 2 yds to the MTST 46

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.59

Adam Jones run for 2 yds to the MTST 48

4th & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +2.19

Adam Jones run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+50 ydsPPA +3.84

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Ty McCullouch for 50 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Darius Stewart run for 2 yds to the UNCO 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.08

Kia'i Keone pass complete to Brayden Munroe for 4 yds to the UNCO 31

3rd & 4Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Kia'i Keone pass incomplete

4th & 4Punt+34 yds

Hunter Green punt for 45 yds , Taco Dowler returns for 34 yds to the UNCO 42

1st & 10Rush+17 ydsPPA +1.32

David Afari run for 17 yds to the MTST 41 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.28

David Afari run for 3 yds to the MTST 38

2nd & 7Pass Reception+24 ydsPPA +0.97

Kia'i Keone pass complete to Cash Cheeks for 24 yds to the MTST 14 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+14 ydsPPA +2.55

Caden Meis pass complete to Carver Cheeks for 14 yds for a TD (Hunter Green KICK)

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.30

Scottre Humphrey run for 3 yds to the MTST 28

2nd & 7Passing Touchdown+72 ydsPPA +6.37

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Taco Dowler for 72 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+22 ydsPPA +1.98

Kia'i Keone pass complete to Brayden Munroe for 22 yds to the UNCO 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.15

Kia'i Keone pass complete to Carver Cheeks for 4 yds to the MTST 49

2nd & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Jordan Hornbeak run for 3 yds to the MTST 46

3rd & 3Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.67

Kia'i Keone run for 2 yds to the MTST 44

4th & 1Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.57

Kia'i Keone pass complete to Caden Meis for 16 yds to the MTST 28 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+28 ydsPPA +2.76

Kia'i Keone pass complete to Brayden Munroe for 28 yds for a TD (Hunter Green KICK)

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.45

Scottre Humphrey run for 2 yds to the MTST 27

2nd & 8Pass Reception+56 ydsPPA +3.95

Tommy Mellott pass complete to Aidan Garrigan for 56 yds to the UNCO 17 for a 1ST down

0th & 0Kickoff Return (Offense)+25 yds

Hunter Green kickoff for 65 yds , Jared White return for 25 yds to the MTST 25

1st & 10Rushing Touchdown+17 ydsPPA +2.58

Scottre Humphrey run for 17 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK)

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

David Afari run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNCO 23

2nd & 12Rush-4 ydsPPA -0.35

David Afari run for a loss of 4 yards to the UNCO 19

3rd & 16Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.06

Kia'i Keone pass incomplete

4th & 16Punt-13 yds

Hunter Green punt for 60 yds , Taco Dowler returns for a loss of 13 yards to the MTST 13

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.35

Jared White run for 1 yd to the MTST 15

2nd & 9Rush-6 ydsPPA -0.34

Chance Wilson run for a loss of 6 yards to the MTST 9

3rd & 15Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.03

Chance Wilson pass incomplete

4th & 15Punt+14 yds

Brendan Hall punt for 45 yds , Brayden Munroe returns for 14 yds to the MTST 40

1st & 10Pass Reception+28 ydsPPA +0.66

Kia'i Keone pass complete to Carver Cheeks for 28 yds to the MTST 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.30

Caden Meis run for no gain to the MTST 12

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Kia'i Keone run for 1 yd to the MTST 11

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.44

Kia'i Keone pass incomplete

4th & 9Field Goal Good+29 yds

Hunter Green 29 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.91

Colson Coon run for 8 yds to the MTST 33

2nd & 2Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.08

Colson Coon run for 2 yds to the MTST 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +1.06

Colson Coon run for 11 yds to the MTST 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+12 ydsPPA +0.89

Colson Coon run for 12 yds to the UNCO 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.88

Jared White run for 9 yds to the UNCO 33

2nd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.89

Chance Wilson run for no gain to the UNCO 33

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.98

Colson Coon run for no gain to the UNCO 33

4th & 1Penalty-10 yds

Montana State Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UNCO 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.36

Colson Coon run for 7 yds to the UNCO 24

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.14

Colson Coon run for 4 yds to the UNCO 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -0.37

Colson Coon run for no gain to the UNCO 20

2nd & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.14

Jared White run for 3 yds to the UNCO 17

3rd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.29

Chance Wilson run for 2 yds to the UNCO 15

4th & 5Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +1.11

Chance Wilson pass complete to Javonte King for 7 yds to the UNCO 8 for a 1ST down

1st & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.29

Colson Coon run for 1 yd to the UNCO 7

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.15

Chance Wilson run for 2 yds to the UNCO 5

3rd & 5Rushing Touchdown+5 ydsPPA +2.76

Chance Wilson run for 5 yds for a TD (Myles Sansted KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Kia'i Keone pass complete to Jordan Hornbeak for 9 yds to the UNCO 34

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.28

Kia'i Keone pass incomplete

3rd & 1Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.54

Jordan Hornbeak run for 8 yds to the UNCO 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.15

Kia'i Keone pass incomplete

2nd & 10Pass Reception+16 ydsPPA +2.42

Kia'i Keone pass complete to David Afari for 16 yds to the MTST 42 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.88

Kia'i Keone pass complete to Brayden Munroe for 9 yds to the MTST 33

3rd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.51

Jordan Hornbeak run for 4 yds to the MTST 29 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.21

Kia'i Keone run for 6 yds to the MTST 23

2nd & 4Pass Reception+20 ydsPPA +1.12

Kia'i Keone pass complete to Jordan Riles for 20 yds to the MTST 3 for a 1ST down

2nd & 1Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.89

Kia'i Keone pass incomplete

1st & 10Penalty0 yds

Montana State Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the MTST 0

1st & 3Sack-3 ydsPPA -1.06

Kia'i Keone sacked for a loss of 3 yards to the MTST 0 Kia'i Keone fumbled, recovered by MTST Ryan Krahe , return for 0 yards for a 1ST down

1st & 9Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.18

[NHSG] Kneel down by TEAM at MSU3 (team loss of 2), clock 00:00.

Situational Analysis

Northern Colorado

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
48%
31 plays
2nd
33%
6 plays
33%
3 plays
30%
10 plays
50%
2 plays
3rd
67%
3 plays
33%
3 plays
33%
6 plays
50%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play

Montana State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
100%
1 play
46%
26 plays
0%
2 plays
2nd
0%
3 plays
0%
4 plays
50%
10 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
50%
4 plays
60%
5 plays
0%
1 play
0%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play
100%
1 play