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← Back to GamesOct 26, 2024Week 9
Conference Game

House Prediction

Model Margin

Michigan by 12.6

Home Win Probability

Michigan 78%

Market (Bovada)

Michigan -3

Edge: Michigan -3 (9.6 pts)

fitted_v1 · Oct 26, 2024

Line Movement

No line movement to chart

Sportsbook snapshots publish once a line is posted for this game.

Team1Q2Q3Q4QFinal
Michigan StateMichigan State
703717
MichiganMichigan
097824

Scoring Timeline

Q1Q2Q3Q4014280-716-716-1024-17
MichiganMichigan State

Drive Chart

Own 20Own 4050Opp 40Opp 20MSMICMSMICMSMICMSMICMSMICMSMICMSMICMSMICMSMICMSMICMISS1468ydPUNT31ydTD962ydPUNT416ydPUNT59ydPUNT620ydPUNT39ydTD1064ydTO29ydFG215ydEND1-2ydTD1175ydFG1067ydPUNT31ydPUNT35ydTD560ydTD1375ydPUNT31ydDOWNS735ydEND527yd

Box Score

Team statistics comparing Michigan State and Michigan
StatisticMichigan StateMichigan
Passing17-2314-20
Pass Yards189146
Rush Yards163119
Total Yards352265
Turnovers10
3rd Down8-157-12
Penalties6-350-0
Possession37:0522:55

Player Leaders

Player Leaders

Michigan State
passing
Aidan Chiles
17/23, 189 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Nathan Carter
19 CAR, 118 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Nathan Carter
2 REC, 56 YDS
defense
Michigan
passing
Davis Warren
13/19, 123 YDS, 1 TD
rushing
Alex Orji
6 CAR, 64 YDS, 1 TD
receiving
Colston Loveland
6 REC, 67 YDS, 2 TD
defense

Play-by-Play

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.11

Aidan Chiles run for 4 yds to the MSU 29

2nd & 6Rush+8 ydsPPA +1.14

Aidan Chiles run for 8 yds to the MSU 37 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.42

Nate Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 40

2nd & 7Pass Reception+26 ydsPPA +2.53

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nate Carter for 26 yds to the MICH 34 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.50

Makhi Frazier run for 1 yd to the MICH 33

2nd & 9Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.37

Nate Carter run for 7 yds to the MICH 26

3rd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.45

Nate Carter run for 6 yds to the MICH 20 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.31

Aidan Chiles run for 7 yds to the MICH 13

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.37

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 1 yd to the MICH 12

3rd & 2Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.62

Nate Carter run for 6 yds to the MICH 6 for a 1ST down

1st & 6Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.16

Montorie Foster Jr. run for 3 yds to the MICH 3

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 1 yd to the MICH 2

3rd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.31

Aidan Chiles pass incomplete

4th & 2Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY MSU Delay Of Game (Chiles,Aidan) 5 yards from UOM02 to UOM07. NO PLAY.

4th & 7Field Goal Missed+25 yds

Jonathan Kim 25 yd FG MISSED

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.47

Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd to the MICH 19

2nd & 11Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.14

Kalel Mullings run for 2 yds to the MICH 21

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.14

Davis Warren pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Tommy Doman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Montorie Foster Jr. at the MSU 38

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Tommy Doman punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Montorie Foster Jr. at the MSU 38

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.89

Makhi Frazier run for 1 yd to the MSU 39

2nd & 9Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +2.30

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 15 yds to the MICH 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.79

Alante Brown run for 1 yd to the MICH 45

2nd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -1.08

Aidan Chiles pass incomplete

3rd & 9Rush+34 ydsPPA +2.90

Nate Carter run for 34 yds to the MICH 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.45

Aidan Chiles run for 8 yds to the MICH 3

2nd & 2Pass Reception+1 ydsPPA -0.39

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 1 yd to the MICH 2

3rd & 1Rush0 ydsPPA -0.34

Nate Carter run for no gain to the MICH 2

4th & 1Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.80

Nate Carter run for 2 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.22

Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 14 yds to the MICH 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the MICH 42

2nd & 7Pass Reception+2 ydsPPA -0.61

Davis Warren pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 2 yds to the MICH 44

3rd & 5Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.32

Donovan Edwards run for 3 yds to the MICH 41

4th & 8Punt0 yds

Tommy Doman punt for 49 yds

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.38

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 7 yds to the MSU 17

2nd & 3Rush+4 ydsPPA +0.08

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 4 yds to the MSU 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.38

Aidan Chiles run for 2 yds to the MSU 23

2nd & 8Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.33

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 1 yd to the MSU 24

3rd & 7Pass Reception-5 ydsPPA -0.31

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams for a loss of 5 yards to the MSU 19

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Semaj Morgan at the MICH 30

4th & 12Punt0 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Semaj Morgan at the MICH 30

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.72

Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd to the MICH 29

2nd & 11Pass Reception+10 ydsPPA +0.95

Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 10 yds to the MICH 39

3rd & 1Rush+6 ydsPPA +1.46

Kalel Mullings run for 6 yds to the MICH 45 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception-3 ydsPPA -1.78

Davis Warren pass complete to Semaj Morgan for a loss of 3 yards to the MICH 42

2nd & 13Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.46

Davis Warren run for 7 yds to the MICH 49

3rd & 6Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.71

Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line

4th & 5Punt0 yds

Tommy Doman punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Montorie Foster Jr. at the MSU 15

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.19

Nate Carter run for 3 yds to the MSU 12

2nd & 13Pass Reception+4 ydsPPA -0.02

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 4 yds to the MSU 16 Michigan State Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (Yards) declined

3rd & 9Rush+8 ydsPPA +0.17

Nate Carter run for 8 yds to the MSU 24

4th & 1Punt+14 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 54 yds , Tyler Morris returns for 14 yds to the MICH 36

1st & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.64

Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the MICH 38

2nd & 8Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.34

Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 3 yds to the MICH 41

3rd & 5Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +2.03

Davis Warren pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 6 yds to the MICH 47 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +1.00

Davis Warren pass complete to Peyton O'Leary for 15 yds to the MSU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.42

Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 7 yds to the MSU 31

2nd & 3Rush+5 ydsPPA -0.05

Donovan Edwards run for 5 yds to the MSU 26 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.04

Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the MSU 22

2nd & 6Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.24

Donovan Edwards run for 11 yds to the MSU 11 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.23

Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the MSU 10

2nd & 9Passing Touchdown+10 ydsPPA +2.75

Davis Warren pass complete to Colston Loveland for 10 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)

1st & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +1.22

Nate Carter run for 14 yds to the MSU 39 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Fumble Recovery (Own)-5 ydsPPA -1.86

Aidan Chiles sacked by Josaiah Stewart for a loss of 5 yards to the MSU 34 Aidan Chiles fumbled, recovered by MICH Kenneth Grant , return for 0 yards

1st & 10Pass Reception+15 ydsPPA +0.33

Davis Warren pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 15 yds to the MSU 19 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Field Goal Good+37 yds

Dominic Zvada 37 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush-2 ydsPPA -0.89

A. Chiles takes a knee

0th & 10End of Half-2 yds

End of 2nd Quarter

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.70

Davis Warren pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.23

Kalel Mullings run for 2 yds to the MICH 27

3rd & 8Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.86

Davis Warren pass complete to Semaj Morgan for 9 yds to the MICH 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+29 ydsPPA +2.17

Alex Orji run for 29 yds to the MSU 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+23 ydsPPA +0.44

Davis Warren pass complete to Tyler Morris for 23 yds to the MSU 12 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.30

Semaj Morgan run for 7 yds to the MSU 5

2nd & 3Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.34

Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd to the MSU 4

3rd & 2Rush+3 ydsPPA +1.63

Kalel Mullings run for 3 yds to the MSU 1 for a 1ST down

1st & 1Rush+1 yds

Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd to the MSU 2

2nd & 2Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.48

Davis Warren pass incomplete

3rd & 2Rushing Touchdown+2 ydsPPA +2.54

Alex Orji run for 2 yds for a TD (Dominic Zvada KICK)

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +0.71

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 9 yds to the MSU 14

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.28

Nate Carter run for 4 yds to the MSU 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+6 ydsPPA +0.27

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 6 yds to the MSU 24

2nd & 4Rush0 ydsPPA -0.65

Nate Carter run for no gain to the MSU 24

3rd & 4Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +3.33

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 30 yds to the MICH 46 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+11 ydsPPA +0.57

Nate Carter run for 11 yds to the MICH 35 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+6 ydsPPA +0.23

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 6 yds to the MICH 29

2nd & 4Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.22

Nate Carter run for 3 yds to the MICH 26

3rd & 1Rush+2 ydsPPA +0.28

Nate Carter run for 2 yds to the MICH 28

4th & 3Field Goal Good+46 yds

Jonathan Kim 46 yd FG GOOD

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.05

Donovan Edwards run for no gain to the MSU 47

2nd & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.85

Donovan Edwards run for 1 yd to the MSU 46

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.87

Davis Warren pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Tommy Doman punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Montorie Foster Jr. at the MSU 13

1st & 10Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY MSU False Start (Parachek,Brennan) 5 yards from MSU13 to MSU08. NO PLAY.

1st & 15Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.17

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Brennan Parachek for 7 yds to the MSU 15

2nd & 8Pass Reception+3 ydsPPA -0.11

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 3 yds to the MSU 18

3rd & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.20

Aidan Chiles pass incomplete

4th & 5Punt+8 yds

Ryan Eckley punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MICH 40 , Semaj Morgan returns for 8 yds to the MICH 40

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Alex Orji run for 3 yds to the MICH 43

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.43

Alex Orji run for 3 yds to the MICH 43

2nd & 7Penalty+15 yds

PENALTY MSU Targeting (Turner,Jordan) 15 yards from UOM43 to MSU42, 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY.

1st & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.91

Davis Warren pass incomplete

2nd & 10Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.49

Alex Orji run for 7 yds to the MSU 35

3rd & 3Pass Reception+12 ydsPPA +1.05

Davis Warren pass complete to Kendrick Bell for 12 yds to the MSU 23 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Passing Touchdown+23 ydsPPA +2.66

Colston Loveland 23 Yd pass from Donovan Edwards (Davis Warren Pass to Colston Loveland for Two-Point Conversion)

1st & 10Pass Reception+9 ydsPPA +1.25

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 9 yds to the MSU 34

2nd & 1Rush+4 ydsPPA -0.13

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 4 yds to the MSU 38 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush0 ydsPPA -1.09

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for no gain to the MSU 38

2nd & 10Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.69

Aidan Chiles pass incomplete

3rd & 10Rush+14 ydsPPA +3.05

Nate Carter run for 14 yds to the MICH 48 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+5 ydsPPA +0.10

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Alante Brown for 5 yds to the MICH 43

2nd & 5Rush+7 ydsPPA +0.58

Nate Carter run for 7 yds to the MICH 36 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Pass Reception+8 ydsPPA +0.58

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 8 yds to the MICH 28

2nd & 2Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.56

Nate Carter run for 1 yd to the MICH 27

3rd & 1Rush+9 ydsPPA +0.41

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 9 yds to the MICH 18 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Sack-4 ydsPPA -0.70

Aidan Chiles sacked by Cameron Brandt for a loss of 4 yards to the MICH 22

2nd & 14Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.32

Kay'Ron Lynch-Adams run for 2 yds to the MICH 20

3rd & 12Passing Touchdown+20 ydsPPA +3.61

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nick Marsh for 20 yds for a TD (Jonathan Kim KICK)

1st & 10Rush+1 ydsPPA -0.59

Kalel Mullings run for 1 yd to the MICH 26

2nd & 9Rush0 ydsPPA -0.41

Kalel Mullings run for no gain to the MICH 26

3rd & 9Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.19

Davis Warren pass incomplete

4th & 9Punt0 yds

Tommy Doman punt for 25 yds

1st & 10Penalty-14 yds

Michigan State Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Aidan Chiles) to the MSU 35

2nd & 24Pass Reception+14 ydsPPA +1.02

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Jack Velling for 14 yds to the MSU 49

3rd & 10Pass Reception+30 ydsPPA +3.43

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Nate Carter for 30 yds to the MICH 21 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.12

Nate Carter run for 3 yds to the MICH 18

2nd & 7Penalty-5 yds

PENALTY MSU False Start (Ramil,Stanton) 5 yards from UOM18 to UOM23. NO PLAY.

2nd & 12Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -0.59

Aidan Chiles pass incomplete

3rd & 12Pass Reception+7 ydsPPA +0.32

Aidan Chiles pass complete to Montorie Foster Jr. for 7 yds to the MICH 16

4th & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.52

Aidan Chiles pass incomplete

4th & 5Pass Incompletion0 ydsPPA -3.52

Aidan Chiles pass incomplete

1st & 10Rush+15 ydsPPA +0.97

Alex Orji run for 15 yds to the MICH 31 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush+3 ydsPPA -0.37

Kalel Mullings run for 3 yds to the MICH 34

2nd & 7Rush+2 ydsPPA -0.47

Kalel Mullings run for 2 yds to the MICH 36

3rd & 5Rush+8 ydsPPA +2.08

Alex Orji run for 8 yds to the MICH 44 for a 1ST down

1st & 10Rush-1 ydsPPA -1.38

D. Warren takes a knee

Situational Analysis

Michigan State

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
0%
1 play
48%
23 plays
100%
1 play
2nd
14%
7 plays
50%
4 plays
43%
7 plays
25%
4 plays
3rd
67%
6 plays
50%
2 plays
80%
5 plays
100%
2 plays
4th
100%
1 play
0%
2 plays

Michigan

Down
1-3
Short
4-6
Med
7-10
Long
11+
XLong
1st
38%
24 plays
2nd
0%
3 plays
100%
1 play
25%
8 plays
67%
3 plays
3rd
100%
4 plays
50%
4 plays
25%
4 plays
4th